E-Cars and E-bikes in China Technology Adoption, Health and Environmental Impacts

Transcription

1 E-Cars and E-bikes in China Technology Adoption, Health and Environmental Impacts Christopher Cherry Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Tennessee, Knoxville With Hongtai Yang, Shuguang Ji, and Andrew Campbell (UTK), Luke Jones (Valdosta State U.), Julian Marshall and Matt Bechle (UMN), Min He (Kunming UST), and Ye Wu (Tsinghua University) BAQ 2012 Hong Kong 5-7 December 2012

2 Sustainable Transport?

3 Vehicle Ownership/1000 People Private Vehicle Electric Two Wheeler Beijing repeals ban on e-bikes, Guangzhou bans all motorized twowheelers First viable e-bike ventures launched Gasoline two-wheelers banned in many cities Sales surge after SARS outbreak China passes law granting right to bike lanes Weight/Speed Enforcement Threatens

4 Are e-bikes sustainable? Cherry, C., H. Yang, L. Jones, M. He (2012) Dynamics of Electric Bike Use in China. (in review) Current e-bike owners household vehicle ownership and purchase plans

5 Are e-bikes sustainable? Cherry, C., H. Yang, L. Jones, M. He (2012) Dynamics of Electric Bike Use in China. (in review) Alternative modes previous to owning an e-bike (a) and current alternative if e-bike was unavailable (b)

6 Results What are determinants? Two Models 1. Prob(choose alternative mode) e-bike bus/car/bicycle/taxi 2. Prob(choose alternative pathway) bus e-bike bus/car Bicycle e-bike bus/car/bicycle car e-bike car

7 Main Findings 1 in 5 e-bike riders are would-be car users About 40% of households own cars and 25% intend to purchase one next year Car ownership is single largest determinant of choosing car after e-bike (double the high-income effect ) Relatively stable preferences over time Considering motorization trends, e-bikes disrupt car use and will continue to have large influence

8 A couple of aspects of EV sustainability Intake Fraction Toxicity Vehicle Emissions Population Intake Heath Risk Ji, S.G., C. Cherry, M. Bechle, Y. Wu, J. Marshall (2012) Electric Vehicle Emissions and Public Health Impacts in China. Environmental Science and Technology. doi: /es202347q

9 Emission Factors

10 Power Plant Intake Fraction (Inhalation) PM 2.5 if comparison for the 34 urban areas

11 Relative Mortality Impacts of PM2.5

12 Who benefits who pays? Power Plant Intake Proportion (Yellow=Rural)

13 Who benefits who pays? Exposure and Income

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15 Modes shift to bikeshare Modes shift to e-bikeshare How to reinvigorate bikes? Recent stated preference study of bikesharing and e-bike sharing in Beijing 14% Shift 10% Shift Campbell, A. (2012) Factors Influencing the Choice of Shared Bicycles and Electric Bicycles in Beijing A Stated Preference Approach. MS Thesis, University of Tennessee.

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17 Conclusion There are no silver bullets Sustainable EVs must be deployed in concert with power improvements Sustainable tech is good, but not a likely savior. Electric 2- and 3-wheelers are among the most efficient motorized modes for short trips (low energy, emissions, and exposure high urban mobility) Other externalities must be considered (safety, congestion, lifecycle (metals) emissions, etc.) Demand management offers greatest holistic hope yet some technologies run contrary to good transport management principles (e.g. right-pricing)

18 Thank You Christopher Cherry Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Tennessee-Knoxville 223 Perkins Hall Knoxville, TN phone: mobile: