How U.S. and other international governments are addressing transport emissions

Transcription

1 How U.S. and other international governments are addressing transport emissions Nic Lutsey Transport og klima i et internasjonalt perspektiv Det Norske Teatret, Oslo, Norway December 5, 2017

2 Outline Background Transport challenges, emissions Global electric vehicle sales are rising, and costs are dropping Analysis of global electric vehicle uptake What is driving electric vehicle uptake in the U.S. markets? What can we learn from the top global EV markets? Reflections, lessons learned

3 Transport challenges Air quality local pollution Energy oil imports, consumer fuel expenses Economy vehicle manufacturing and oil industry Climate carbon emissions Others mobility, congestion, parking

4 U.S. transport CO 2 has surpassed other sectors Billion metric tons CO history projections 2.0 transportation electric power industrial residential commercial U.S. Energy Information Administration

5 Efficiency and CO 2 standards provide a foundation for automaker technology investment, deployment EU 2025: 81 5

6 Global electric vehicle market

7 Global electric vehicle sales Through October 2017, cumulative global EV sales passed 2.8 million Mostly the sales are in China, U.S., and Europe These markets have a complex system of regulation, incentives, charging, local action Annual electric vehicle sales 800, , , ,000 Rest of world China Japan Canada United States Sweden Germany Netherlands France United Kingdom (through October) Norway 7

8 Global electric vehicle sales, by automaker Most major automakers now in the game: 15 with 20k+ annual sales Global annual 2015 to 2016 electric vehicle growth ~40% Battery production more concentrated (5 companies make up 3/4 of production) Annual electric vehicle sales 800, , , , Others Kandi Hyundai Jiangling JAC Chery SAIC Zhidou Mercedes Renault Ford Mitsubishi General Motors Geely Zotye BAIC Nissan BMW Volkswagen Tesla BYD Based on Pontes, J. (2017) and ICCT: 8

9 Opportunity: Electric vehicle costs are dropping Supplier competition, innovation, and volume à cost are dropping Short- (100 mi) and medium-range (150 mi) EVs become cost competitive before 2025 Vehicle cost of ownership $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 BEV-200 BEV-150 BEV-100 ICE $25, Chart shown for U.K. From Slowik et al (2016). Evolution of incentives to sustain the transition to a global electric vehicle fleet. 9

10 U.S. electric vehicle market

11 Regulation promotes technology deployment CO 2 /efficiency regulations are essential for industry technology investments U.S. case: 5% electric vehicle penetration in 2025 à 13-23% in 2030 Emissions (gco 2 /mile) Consumer label fuel economy 2016: 26 miles per gallon (mpg) Electric vehicle share 2016: 1% 2025: 35 mpg 2025: 5% 100 0% % 30% 20% 10% Electric vehicle share of new vehicle sales Assumes adopted 2025 standards and hypothetical standards at 4%-6% lower CO 2 /year Lutsey, Meszler, Isenstadt, German, Miller (2016). Efficiency technology and cost assessment for U.S light-duty vehicles. 11

12 ZEV regulation drives U.S. electric vehicle uptake 10 states with 29% of U.S. car sales have adopted California s Zero Emission Vehicle regulation à they represent 64% of U.S. electric sales ZEV regulation pushes increased electric vehicle model availability and marketing, provides a clear signal for infrastructure investments and additional complementary policy 150,000 Electric vehicle sales 100,000 50,000 Rest of U.S. Other ZEV states California See:

13 What is driving electric vehicle uptake in the U.S.? California policies are working and increasingly getting adopted more widely Top markets address prevailing barriers: Models availability (with ZEV regulation), cost (incentives), convenience (charging infrastructure), awareness (local actions) S e a t tl e Electric Vehicle Share Portland B os t on 0% - 0.5% M in n e a p o lis 0.5% - 1% M il w a u k e e 1% - 1.5% 2% - 3% 3% - 4% S a c r a m e n to San Francisco Salt Lake City D e nve r Sa n J o s e Columbus Indianapolis Cincinnati K a n s a s C i ty S t. L o u i s 4% - 5% Louisville L a s V e ga s > 5% Nashville Los Angeles Riverside S a n Di e g o N ew Y ork Detroit C l e v e la n d C hi cago 1.5% - 2% Oklahoma City Providence Hartford Buffalo Philadelphia P i tt s b u r g h B a l ti m o r e Washington R ic h m o n d Virginia Beach Raleigh Charlotte Me m p h is Atlanta Birmingham Phoenix Dallas Jacksonville Austin San Antonio New Orleans Houston Orlando Tam pa Miami 13 See: vehicle registration data from IHS Automotive

14 Electric vehicle uptake and underlying factors in the U.S. Leading markets tend to have more extensive public charging, more EV models, greater consumer incentives, and more local promotion actions Electric vehicle share of new vehicles 0% 5% 10% Public chargers per million population Models available (at least 20 sales) Consumer incentives 0 2,000 4,000 Promotion actions San Jose San Francisco Los Angeles San Diego Seattle Portland Sacramento Riverside Detroit Salt Lake City Washington Denver Austin Boston Nashville Las Vegas New York Phoenix Atlanta Hartford Miami Raleigh Philadelphia Indianapolis Baltimore Minneapolis Providence Tampa Kansas City Chicago Purchase incentives HOV value Other incentives City State Utility 14 See: vehicle registration data from IHS Automotive

15 Analysis of top global electric vehicle markets

16 Leading global electric vehicle markets These 20 markets account for 40% of global electric vehicle sales These areas represent just 3% of the world population and 8% of global vehicle sales The markets have combination of national, state, city, and utility policies and actions Bergen Oslo Stockholm San Francisco San Jose Los Angeles New York London Paris Amsterdam Rotterdam Utrecht Beijing Taiyuan Tianjin Qingdao Shanghai Tokyo Shenzhen Hangzhou Based on total electric vehicles sales through 2016 See 16

17 Leading global electric vehicle markets Leaders: Several over 10% EV sales share, several over 10,000 EV sales per year Driven by city, state, national policy; incentives; infrastructure; consumer campaigns Electric vehicle sales through ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 Plug-in hybrid vehicles Battery electric vehicles Share of 2016 new sales 36% 33% 11% 10% 6% 8% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 4% 4% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% Shanghai Beijing Shenzhen Qingdao Hangzhou Tianjin Taiyuan Oslo Amsterdam Paris Bergen London Utrecht Stockholm Rotterdam-Hague Tokyo Los Angeles San Francisco San Jose New York 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Electric vehicle share of 2016 new sales China Europe Japan U.S. Based on total electric vehicles sales through 2016 See 17

18 Diverse local policies underway to meet EV goals Policy or program Model city Details Other cities City fleet goal Los Angeles Half of city fleet electric as of 2017 Oslo, Amsterdam, San Jose, New York, San Diego, Shenzhen Taxi electrification Beijing Replacing all 69,000 city taxis with NEVs through government subsidies Electric car sharing program Paris Autolib program contains 4,000 cars and 6,000 charge points Public bus electrification Shenzhen All buses zero-emission by end of 2017 Free public charging Oslo Free charging with renewable energy at all Level 2 charge points EV-friendly building and parking codes Carpool or bus lane access Vehicle registration benefits London San Francisco Shanghai 1 in 5 parking spaces must have an EV charge point Electric vehicles may use carpool lanes and do not pay bridge tolls NEVs bypass expensive license plate lottery system Parking benefits Amsterdam Electric vehicles obtain free parking spot in city center Local purchase incentives Shenzhen Local subsidies of $8,800 for BEVs, $5,100 for PHEVs Taiyuan, London, Amsterdam, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Shenzhen Shanghai, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, London, Hangzhou Qingdao, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Los Angeles, London Stockholm San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Hangzhou, Shenzhen Los Angeles, San Jose, Oslo, Bergen, San Diego Beijing, Shenzhen Shanghai, Utrecht, Oslo, San Jose Beijing, Shanghai, the Hague 18 See

19 The challenge: Transition to electric drive Major governments have signaled the need to fully transition to electric drive in the 2025 to 2050 timeframe to achieve climate, air quality, and energy goals National: France, Germany, India, Netherlands, Norway, United Kingdom States/Provinces: British Col., Calif., Conn., Maryland, Mass., New York, Oregon, Québec, Rh. Isl, Vermont Cities: Many registration and circulation restrictions, low emission zones, discussions of bans Electric-drive sales share 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Norway Netherlands United Kingdom France California Germany China United States Canada 0% See: ZEV Alliance COP21 announcement:

20 ZEV Alliance: International collaboration Hydrogen infrastructure practices Charging infrastructure practices Zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles Consumer outreach best practices Utility ZEV best practices Evolution of incentives Next-generation ZEV technology Principles for incentive design ZEV role in global climate mitigation Collaborative agenda Oakland Meeting New York Launch Paris COP21 Announcement Montréal Assembly Amsterdam Assembly Bonn COP23 ZEV event British Columbia California Connecticut Germany Maryland Massachusetts Netherlands New York Norway Oregon Québec Rhode Island United Kingdom Vermont 20

21 Reflections and lessons learned Increasingly markets are driven to move to electric vehicles Drivers: Air quality, climate change, industrial development Global and U.S. experience show what it takes to launch the market Regulation: Long-term CO 2 + EV policy ensure investment, model availability Incentives: Address short-term (~5 year) market cost barrier Charging infrastructure: Provide convenience, consumer confidence Cities: Promote electric vehicles locally (urban restrictions, access) 21

22 Contact Nic Lutsey: ICCT electric vehicle page: EV world capitals report: U.S. city EV report: ZEV Alliance: Acknowledgements Work by Peter Slowik, Dale Hall, Hongyang Cui, Lingzhi Jin, Marissa Moultak, Nic Lutsey Supported by ZEV Alliance governments, The 11th Hour Project of the Schmidt Family Foundation, the ClimateWorks Foundation, Josh and Anita Bekenstein

23 Global analysis of electric vehicle charging infrastructure

24 Electric vehicles and public charging have grown together globally At end of 2016: About 2 million electric cars and 300,000 public charge points Cumulative electric vehicle sales US Europe China Other 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Electric vehicle public charge points US Europe China Other 300, , , See:

25 How much public charging is there in top EV markets? Public charging generally increases with EV share (but it s complicated ) Norway/Netherlands have >10x, China/California have 3-5x average charging availability Public charge points per million population 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 33% 10% Public charging per million 8% 7% 6% 11% 7% 7% 4% 10% Electric vehicle share 6% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 36% 30% 24% 18% 12% 6% Electric vehicle sales share 0 Bergen Oslo Shenzhen* Beijing Hangzhou* Shanghai The Hague Utrecht Amsterdam Rotterdam San Jose San Francisco Los Angeles Stockholm Gothenburg Birmingham Leeds London 0% Norway China Netherlands United States Sweden United Kingdom 25 See:

26 Is there a global EV-per-public-charger benchmark? Looking at the top EV markets, the EV-per-charger ratio varies greatly China/Netherlands 2-7; Norway/Sweden/UK ~15-20; California ~30 Electric vehicles per public charge pointt % 33% Electric vehicles per public charge point 10% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 4% 6% Electric vehicle share 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 36% 30% 24% 18% 12% 6% Electric vehicle sales share 0 Bergen Oslo Shenzhen* Beijing Hangzhou* Shanghai The Hague Utrecht Amsterdam Rotterdam San Jose San Francisco Los Angeles Stockholm Gothenburg Birmingham Leeds London 0% Norway China Netherlands United States Sweden United Kingdom 26 See: