Draft CRM Substitution Roadmap: Batteries and Accumulators

Transcription

1 Landscape developments: Drivers for substitution The trend towards li- ion in Demand for Li- ion continues to transport will increase demand for grow, NiMH expected to lose the conflict mineral cobalt, natural market share, due to need for greater graphite and fluoride (derived from power density and range CRM fluorspar). Efforts in the transport sector focus on improving cost and safety, while maintaining/improving performances, but not on material supply issues Stationary market less dynamic and innovative due to uncertainty in horizon of actual demand, "follower" of technology development in transport Increasing functionalities require higher energy performance in the portable battery market, highly dynamic market Slow demand increase for storage in industry, developments driven by cost reduction, improved durability and security Demand for wearable and functional (shape) devices increases Demand for Li- ion continues to grow, NIMH expected to lose market share Increased demand for lithium may warrant consideration in criticality analysis Progress of alternative storage technologies, e.g. active energy harvesting, while pressure on energy density performance remains critical Possible market uptake of hydrogen & fuel cells vehicles, partially shifting the CRM focus away from to Fuel- Cells (Pt) Possible strong market shift of stationary storage solutions on grid level Industry expert source. A study of Navigant Research forecasts released Q forecasted gradual increase of Fuel Cell Vehicles sales by 2015, then a strong growth surpassing 2 million vehicles worldwide annually by ( cell- vehicles) According to some research parallel to the European CRM list, Lithium could be considered a CRM when taking into account differently the "environmental risk" (Study of Critical Raw Materials at EU Level - Final Report - Oakdene Hollins / Fraunhofer ISI - dec 2013) A 2011 Boston Consulting Group analysis estimated a potential additional need of 330GW of storage capacity required by (Revisiting Energy Storage - There is a Business Case - BCG- 2011). In specific markets (e.g. Germany), demand for storage in link with renewable may be sooner ( 9s- stationary- energy- storage- forges- ahead). Navigant Research analysis performed Q forecasts a growth in advanced for portable power applications from $7.1 billion to $12.4 billion between 2013 and IDTechEx study on Energy Harvesting identified a potential rise of the energy harvesting market to $2.6 billion in 2024.

2 Regime: Markets, Policy & Regulation Batteries for Transport Market Antimony use (Sb) in lead- acid Current 12V Lead- acid likely to maintain their position as start- up- type (standard), but alternatives, such as Li- ion, enter the market of stop- start systems Reduction of Lead- acid share on emerging use : e.g. increasing Li- ion in transport applications. Current 12V Lead- acid still likely to maintain their position as start- up- type (standard) Lead- acid 12V maintain position in some market fragments (e.g. start- up ), but are being progressively substituted in other transport applications with high energy requirements by Li- ion. Potential removal of Sb in lead- acid EUROBAT study (May 2014) indicates that Lead- Acid battery will remain a key technology for automobile for the forseeable future ( 8- eurobat.html) Alternative technologies to Li- ion Alternative technologies to present Li- ion under development: Lithium- Metal Polymer technology (no Co, but some graphite); possibly ZEBRA (no CRM identified), as backup solution, but only for big vehicles - Possibly marginal PEMFC (but Pt use) New generation Li- ion ; Cathode : by other elements : Mn, Ni, Fe (eg. LFP). silicon content. Electrolyte: likely to remain F- based First Li- S in the automotive market (CRM- free). Possible hybridation with supercaps. Limited market share of PEMFC Market growth for Li- S (no CRM) but no advantage in terms of mass, possible hybridation with supercaps. Metal- air (Li- air, Zn- air, Al- air, ) without critical materials if cyclability and PGM dependence are solved. Further alternatives: Na- ion, Mg- ion, solid- state (uncertainty on CRM content, but some chemistry should be w/o CRM). PEMFC cars may take the lead over battery cars at the 2030 horizon. TESLA (the Gigafactory to reach capacity, demand from the battery sector) could increase by as much as 152% in the graphite market, 50% in the lithium market and 17% in the cobalt market, relative to 2013 levels). The European Green Car Initiative (EGCI) multi- annual roadmap details the milestones for energy storage systems in order to achieve the overall target for the electric vehicle. There is a particular milestone (by 2020) related to the "availability of providing tripled energy density, tripled lifetime and % of 2009 cost and matching V2G". SAFT developping the LiFePO4 (LFP) Li- ion technology, and Prayon jointly with Umicore developping the LFP active cathode material. Lithium Metal Polymer (LMP), developped by the Bolloré Group, are currently used in the BlueCar used for electric car- sharing in Paris. Volkswagen, in their roadmap for high energy has identified a short term increase in Li- ion battery energy density to about 220 Wh/kg (compared to the 170 Wh/kg in the today cells) Beyond that, the Group is looking to Li- S (500 Wh/kg) and Li- air (1,000 Wh/kg) as future solutions. Developped first by AEG, then Daimler Benz, MES- DEA is currently the main promoter of ZEBRA (high- temperature) and implemented these in some Renault Twingo electric models. Beginning of sales of Toyota Fuel- Cell car Mirai in Dec 2014, first mass- market fuel- cell car.

3 Substitution of REE and CO in NiMH Decrease of NiMH market and substitution by Li- ion in the car industry Decrease of NiMH market and substitution by Li- ion or possibly NiZn as backup solution in the car industry, related to the increased need for range extension in EV Substitution by other technologies (no perceived long- term niche in transport). BASF acquired in 2012 Ovonic Battery Company, a leading producer of NiMH battery technology, and integrates the company in its battery materials business. In addition to its current activities in electrolyte formulations and Li- ion cathode materials development, BASF is exploring next- generation battery materials concepts, including lithium- sulfur technologies now in early stage development with partner Sion Power Internet/en_GB/content/microsites/catalysts/news/ne ws146 Development of PT use in PEM Fuel Cells Market entrance of fuel cell carà PEMFC with Pt based catalyst Market uptake of fuel cell cars (PEMFC) with reduced Pt catalyst loadings: alloys and core shell nanomaterials (w/ & w/o Pt) Policy & Regulation Fuel cells for different types of vehicles, with PGMs free catalyst (e.g. alkaline anion exchange membrane fuel cells) Toyota's fuel cell Sedan car will go on sale in Japan and California in 2015, but the company has added the UK, Germany and Denmark to the list. EU regulations on emissions for transport is an indirect driver for EV/HEV market push. Below a certain level of emissions, which is already in the regulation roadmap, electrification is the only solution to meet the emission requirements Combination of regulations like Transport emissions and RES storage may lead to positive business cases for for electric vehicles (as a 1 st life) and for stationary RES storage (as a 2 nd life), on a single product. HEV vehicles starting to dominate the new vehicles market Possible developement of consumer- level energy storage needs, in link with decentralized RES production. Navigant research 2013 study forecasting a Plug- in electric vehicle market that will reach 3 million vehicles sold in 2020, representing 3% of the global light- duty vehicle market, hybrids growing to almost 4% of global light- duty vehicle sales by Interview with industry experts.

4 Regime: Markets, Policy & Regulation Batteries for Stationary Storage Market Antimony use (Sb) in lead- acid Cobalt (Co)use in NiCd ( 1 % wt. at the cathode) Substitution of REE and CO in NiMH Alternative technologies to Li- ion Decrease of Lead- acid battery applications à substitution by Li- ion, NaS and 1 st generation redox flow ; decreasing use of Sb in lead- Acid, through the evolution towards valve- regulated lead- acid (no Sb) Replacemement of NiCd by NiMH and Li- ion Decrease of NiMH market and substitution by Li- ion Alternative technologies to present Li- ion under development Lithium- Metal Polymer technology (no Co, but some Graphite); NaS, ZEBRA (no critical materials); 1st generation Redox flow (Zn/B, vanadium, etc.) - no critical materials New generation Li- ion ; Cathode : by other elements : Mn, Ni, Fe (eg. NMC). silicon content. Electrolyte: likely to remain F- based Further decrease of Lead- acid battery applications à substitution by Li- ion, NaS, Zn- air, 2 nd generation redox- flow and NiZn ; Valve- regulated lead- acid (no Sb) Decrease of NiMH market and substitution by Li- ion, or NiZn Possibly first Li- S in the market (no CRM) Use of PEMFC as complement or substitution to. PEMFC + supercap hybridation may substitute to Possible Power- to- gas (hydrogen or methane) in link with market development Possibly first Na- ion (in case of pressure on Lithium) 2nd generation Redox flow - no critical materials Only niche markets for Lead- acid in stationary applications remain (if any) à substitution by Li- ion, NaS, Li- S, Na- ion, NiZn, metal- air and 3 rd generation redox- flow. Possibly only niche markets for NiMH and substitution by Li- ion, or NiZn Li- S (no CRM) Advanced metal- air (e.g Li- air; Al- air, Zn- air ) - without critical materials if cyclability and PGM dependence are solved. Mg- ion 3rd generation Redox flow ; CRM- free solid- state (uncertainty on CRM content, but some chemistry should be w/o CRM) PEMFC electrolysis/storage may take- over the growth over stationary battery at the 2030 horizon. Battery cost decrease in higher- performing technologies like Li- ion is likely to rule- out Lead- acid from stationnary storage on the long- run. Expectations of $ /kWh are made for on these new technologies, making them competitive ( - for- green- energy- are- closer- than- we- think ). Result of Directive 2006/66/EC Same rationnals as for Lead- acid stationnary. PowerGenix positionning on NiZn for stationnary storage, thanks to life- time cost advantage ( atteries/nickel- zincae%e2%84%a2s- powerful- future- in- stationary- storage/) Same examples as for the Transport market for some technologies. For redox- flow (specific to stationnary applications), it is the area of numerous start- ups (Prudent Energy, Prilus Power, Enervault, Imergy...) but also the German Gildemeister company that has reportedly sold more than 50 of its CellCube devices in Europe and Asia. NGK insulators manufactures and sells NaS, but two successive fires on its NaS systems in 2010 and 2011 negatively impacted the perception of the technology ( html) FZ Sonic, a venture from MES- DEA and FIAMM planned to develop a line of Zebra for stationnary applications ( %20to%20Manufacture%20Molten%20Salt%20Sodium %20Nickel%20Choride%20Batteries%20for%20Mobile% 20and%20Stationary%20Electricity%20Storage%20Appli cations.htm)

5 Policy & Regulation Directive 2006/66/EC: the sale of consumer NiCd is banned within the EU except for medical use; alarm systems; emergency lighting; and portable power tools Regulatory pressure, like constrains related to REACH (e.g. on Nickel), may influence the use in non- mainstream technologies. Regulation for storage under review in the EU: The legal framework governing storage is identified at European level in the 3rd Package Electricity Directive Subsidies for storage, such as the German programme for small- scale PV storage Harmonization of EU energy policy Further ban of some substances (e.g. Lead, Cadmium) is always possible in the future, but unlikely due to cost constrains and good material recovery today. Nickel release has been added to the REACH Annex XVII Restriction list. ( reach.com/testing/nickel_release.html) At national level, other laws are under development, which will regulate electricity storage applications. Where it is regulated, the regulation is done within the ancillary services market In May 2013, Germany introduced a 25 million storage subsidy programme, providing financial support to all photovoltaic systems containing battery energy storage (BES) that are installed in Germany in 2013 (with a maximum capacity of 30kW). The programme gives subsidies via low- interest loans from state- owned KfW bank and principal grants from the Environment Ministry. The subsidies amount to 660/kW of solar power for each system, improving the economic logic for BES take- up in the residential and commercial sector. Mandatory target for electricity storage (California Public Utilities Commission's) Possible barrier: shift of political majority in lead markets, with potential negative impacts on renewable energy (e.g. taxes on solar energy, changes in priorities) 1.3 gigawatts of grid storage by 2020 In October 2013 the California Public Utilities Commission unanimously approved its proposed mandate (PDF) that will require the state s big three investor- owned utilities to add 1.3 gigawatts of energy storage to their grids by decade s end. Source: ia- passes- huge- grid- energy- storage- mandate E.g. Application of renewable energy policies in the US ( 4ef4-8dd9-5bffa4af86f8/presentation/publicationattachment/5b9 1deeb b7- a b2d90f/why_the_united_states_does_not_have _a_renewable_energy_policy.pdf)

6 Regime: Markets, Policy & Regulation Portable Market Substitution of REE and CO in NiMH Decrease of NiMH market and substitution by Li- ion Li- ion take over this market Gain in performances and cost reduction of Li- ion technology through economies of scales. Alternative technologies to Li- ion New generation Li- ion ; Cathode : by other elements : Mn, Ni (eg. NMC). Cobalt remains important for performance in this market. silicon content. Electrolyte: likely to remain F- based Possibly µ- PEMFC Metal- air (Li- air, Zn- air, Al- air, ) without critical materials if cyclability and PGM dependence are solved, but with performance mitigation and improved cyclability. µ- fuel- cells have been in the market starting around 2012, with companies like myfc, Horizon Fuel Cell, and others were planned from Lilliputian Systems Inc., Neah Power Systems ( iew_2013.pdf)

7 Niche: R&D Batteries for Transport and Stationary Stoarge & Portable Batteries R&D Substitution of Co, natural graphite & fluorspar in cathode, anodes and electrolytes of Li- ion in transport and stationnary storage Substitution of Co, natural graphite & fluorspar in Li- ion for portable applications Market entrance of new generation Li- ion. Substitution or reduction of Co in cathode by other elements : Mn, Fe, Ni (eg. LFP, NMC). Anode: Substitution of natural graphite by synthetic graphite or anode with low silicon content. Electrolyte likely to remain F- based New generation Li- ion ; Cathode : by other elements : Mn, Ni (eg. NMC). Cobalt remains important for performance. silicon content. Electrolyte: likely to remain F- based Advanced Li- ion dominating the market. Cathode: Reduction of Co by Lithium- rich cathode (low of no Co). Anode : Substitution by silicon or Lithium- metal. Electrolyte likely to remain F- based Liquid metal battery technology (stationary). Advanced Li- ion ; Cathode: increased reduction of Cobalt by partial substitution through other elements. Cobalt remains important for performance. Possible reduction of Co by Lithium- rich cathode (low or no Co); Anode : Substitution by silicon or Lithium- metal ; electrolyte: likely to remain F- based; possibly micro- PEMFC (Pt content) Advanced Li- ion ; Electrolyte: Possibly substitution of fluoride based electrolytes (although no specific research on this) Advanced Li- ion ; Electrolyte: substitution of fluoride based electrolytes; Possibly Metal- air (e.g Li- air;, Al- air, ), but with performance mitigation and only if cyclability and PGM dependence is solved. Multiplicity of possible chemistries, and mixing/dosing of these chemistries make Li- ion a continuous area of improvement on the R&D side. Active energy harvesting techniques (non- Lithium)- ion High- temperature (molten salts) PEM fuel cells : E.g. : Non- PGMs catalysts in the electrodes. 2D- layered materials for the electrodes: graphene, metal dichalcogenides, Mxenes R&D on Na- ion, Mg- ion Mixed oxides with catalytic properties for ORR and OER Active energy harvesting technology make market entrance in health and telecom sector High- grade quality graphene produced at competitive prices Active harvesting technologies spread to mobility sector and other uses Electrodes for PEMFC based on novel 2D layered materials with improved durability and conductivity. Pt- group free catalysts for PEMFC Redox- flow Organic redox flow Ionic liquid flow battery Metal- Air Zn- air Iron- Air "Low- cost" E.g. Liquid metal. Lithium- Air Sodium- Air Sources: 13_list.pdf Non- CRM dependent, awaiting the development of the market needs (stationary) No CRMs are used in Redox- flow (except perflourinated membranes in some cases) Secondary metal- air are developed without critical materials liquid- metal- battery- will- make- renewables- competitive