E-Highway2050 WP3 workshop April 15 th, 2014 Brussels. Battery Storage Technology Assessment Lukas Sigrist, Comillas, Eric Peirano, TECHNOFI

Transcription

1 E-Highway2050 WP3 workshop April 15 th, 2014 Brussels Battery Storage Technology Assessment Lukas Sigrist, Comillas, Eric Peirano, TECHNOFI

2 Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th

3 Introduction (i) Why BESS? Mainly because of: Increasing amount of renewables (together with limitations of pumpedhydro storage and CAES systems) Shift to hybrid and electric vehicles within the automobile industry (V2G operation, secondary applications of automobile BESS) R&D activities in Smart and Micro Grids (BESS is an essential component) Market area with strongest growth: renewable integration, distributed storage and ancillary services No distinction between centralized and distributed BESS (size is application dependent and BESSs are highly modular systems) WP3 Workshop, April 15th

4 Introduction (ii) Which BESS technologies? Lead acid, Still competitive: CSIRO s ultrabattery Nickel cadmium, Sodium sulfur, Zebra, Lithium ion, High temperature BESS From portable devices to the EV market Vanadium redox, Zinc bromine, and Regenesys Flow BESS Much attention over the last 30 years WP3 Workshop, April 15th

5 Introduction (iii) Why these BESS technologies? Commercial and mature technologies will be used in the short term. Technologies close to commercialization and/or promising candidates will be used in the medium and long term as alternatives. Room for improvement in the engineering of current and new systems (use of a fraction of theoretical energy density) WP3 Workshop, April 15th

6 Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th

7 Methodology (i) Current cost and performance figures are known. What about in 2050? Estimation of future trends is based on the analysis of publications. Main drivers for BESS evolution Evolution of EVs and RES Emergence of Smart and Micro Grids Technological evolution within the BESS industry Evolution of the regulatory context WP3 Workshop, April 15th

8 Methodology (ii) Prediction of general BESS penetration Evolution of mature technologies Technological Evolution of BESS Comparison and unification of BESS trends EV and intermittent RES Data found in the literature has been temporally inter- or extrapolated. WP3 Workshop, April 15th

9 Methodology (iii) The use of a large quantity of publications allows: Contrasting data and trends found Consistency of the projected trends Variance reduction The estimation of the trends is only as good as the available literature. Remember that most BESS technologies lack large and long field experience. WP3 Workshop, April 15th

10 Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th

11 Energy density (Wh/kg) Results (i) An illustrative example for Lithium-ion energy densities Increase thanks to Li-Ion evolution Li-ion Contrast/ Compare Years etc. Energy density (Wh/kg) Unify WP3 Workshop, April 15th

12 Efficiency (%) Results (ii) Another illustrative example on BESS efficiencies NaS constant, whereas Li-Ion and Zebra slowly increase Sodium ZEBRA Lithium ion etc Years Use of mean value for extrapolation of each BESS Increases thanks to technological evolution of the battery Efficiency Lithium ion NaS and Zebra Large variations due to lack of long field experience WP3 Workshop, April 15th

13 Results (iii) Estimation of future power investment costs Cost ($/kw) Lead acid Nickel cadmium Sodium sulfur Zebra Lithium ion Vanadium redox Zinc bromine Regensys Regensys remains constant since no R&D since 2009 Average values Lead acid is the cheapest BESS Lithium ion shows a strong reduction in power costs The costs of the remaining BESS decrease with a similar pace WP3 Workshop, April 15th

14 Results (iv) Estimation of future life cycles Life cycles Lead acid Nickel cadmium Sodium sulfur Lithium ion Regensys remains constant since no R&D since Vanadium redox Zinc bromine Regensys Average values Most technologies slow down or reach an asymptote around Today, life cycles of Lithium ion > 4000 only available at a very high cost WP3 Workshop, April 15th

15 Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th

16 Conclusions A portfolio of BESS technologies up to 2050 has been presented. Future trends of costs and technical parameters have been estimated by analysing existing publications. Data found has been inter- and extrapolated. Development of BESS slows down and/or saturates around 2030 (mature technologies). Uncertainties have been provided (depend on drivers such as EV or RES penetration, etc.). WP3 Workshop, April 15th

17 Thank you for your attention! WP3 Workshop, April 15th

18 Results (i) The methodology has been applied to estimate the future values of variables classified into: Technology performance characteristics Technology readiness and maturity Implementation constraints Costs Environmental impact and public acceptance Supply chain issues Dynamic performance of technology Over 50 publications have been consulted. WP3 Workshop, April 15th

19 Introduction (v) State of the art of the selected BESSs Lead acid Nickel cadmium High temperature Lithium ion Flow (VR) energy rating MWh rated power MW power density W/kg energy density Wh/kg electrical efficiency % self discharge %/day response time S lifespan year life cycles cycles investment costs (power) $/kw investment costs (energy) $/kwh energy rating rated power power density < mean value > mean value Not specified energy density electrical efficiency self discharge response time lifespan life cycles investment costs (power) investment costs (energy) WP3 Workshop, April 15th Lead acid Nickel cadmium High temp. Lithium ion Flow

20 Applications ESS technology Introduction (vi) BESS are able to provide many different services (multi-tasking). Short duration Medium duration Long duration < 0.25h 1-10h h Power (MW) PHEV, EV PHEV, EV PV-battery system PV-battery system Flywheels Lead-acid batteries Redox-flow batteries Super-Capacitors Nickel-cadmium batteries SMES Lithium-ion batteries Lithium-ion batteries Sodium-suflur batteries Lead-acid batteries Redox-flow batteries Nickel-cadmium batteries Other electrochemical batteries Sodium-suflur batteries Pumped hydro storage Hydrogen storage Compressed air energy storage Methanation Thermoelectric (Pumped) hydro storage (with large water reservoirs) Primary/Secondary frequency control Tertiary frequency control Storage for dark calm periods (i.e., no wind or solar generation) Spinning reserve Standing reserve Island grids Peak shaving Load Leveling Energy time shift Power quality Load Following Electric supply capacity Voltage control Black start capability Island grids (with e.g. diesel generator) Electromobility (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) Uninterruptible power supply Transient stability Island grids Electromobility (Full Electric Vehicles) Residential storage systems Uninterruptible power supply Distribution upgrade deferral Transmission upgrade deferral Transmission congestion reliefe WP3 Workshop, April 15th