CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update. Presented by: Preston Reine, Senior Analyst & Manager IHS Markit Industrial Automation

Transcription

1 1 CWIEME Chicago 2016 Electric Motor Market Update Presented by: Preston Reine, Senior Analyst & Manager IHS Markit Industrial Automation

2 2 Agenda Economic update Motor market statistics Key trends and challenges for suppliers Conclusion

3 Industrial Automation research areas DISCRETE & PROCESS AUTOMATION ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS CAPTIAL EQUIPMENT & MACHINERY Controllers Industrial Communications Process Instrumentation Visualization Smart Manufacturing Drives Mechanical Power Transmission Motors 3D Printing Generators Machinery Motor Driven Equipment Switchgear Turbines

4 Global economic outlook 2016 IHS 4

5 The key top-level numbers for A huge amount of money goes into industrial capital expenditure projects each year. 34% of spend Machinery production (MP) Automation products significant part of MP Total industrial capital expenditure spend $3.2 Trillion 3% of spend Automation direct to end-users % Growth Here we show how that spend is allocated, and how much of it is directed towards Automation products. 63% of spend Building, land, services and other $199.3 billion spend on automation products 5

6 Industrial Automation Capital Expenditure Q3 2016/ Aug 2016 Industrial capital expenditures by major region 19.2% 22.3% 58.6% % of 2015 global industrial capital expenditure 2015 $738 billion $635 billion $1,941 billion Americas EMEA Asia Pacific 2020 $879 billion $793 billion $2,134 billion 2016 IHS 6

7 Industrial Automation Capital Expenditure Q3 2016/ Aug 2016 Relative size of automation expenditures by industry within each region Region Americas Asia Pacific EMEA Automotive Cement and glass Chemicals Food and beverage Metal processing Industry Oil and gas Pharmaceuticals Power Pulp and paper Refining and petrochemicals Water and wastewater 2016 IHS 7

8 Machinery production by country World machinery market $1.3tn Rest of the world $257bn $113bn $458bn $123bn $ 2016 IHS 8

9 Key industry sector weight and performance in 2016 Industrial automation equipment market by industry 9% 8.4% 6.0% Proportion of total industrial automation equipment market (%) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 3.7% 4.9% 3.6% 6.0% 3.4% 4.4% 6.2% 6.8% 7.6% 45% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Sector growth 0% -10.0% Percentage of 2015 Industrial automation equipment 2015 growth growth - Q2 update 2016 IHS 2016 IHS 9

10 Automotive Cement and glass Chemicals Food and beverage Metal processing Oil and gas Pharmaceuticals Power Pulp and paper Refining and petrochemicals Water and wastewater In millions Breakdown of automation capital expenditures by industry and region Automation capital expenditures by industry $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Source: IHS EMEA Asia Americas 2016 IHS 2016 IHS 10

11 Industrial automation equipment market leaders 2016 IHS 11

12 Short term factors affecting the world economy Systematic factors Withdrawal of policy stimulus Over capacity after investment booms Sluggish export markets Increased risk aversion Structural factors Growing labor force and wages Continuance of globalization Falling commodity prices Lack of market reforms 2016 IHS 12

13 Percent Growth (%) 13 Impact of Brexit not a long-term concern GDP Forecast Post Brexit 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% % Source: IHS Americas Sep '16 EMEA Sep '16 APAC Sep '16 Americas June '16 EMEA June '16 APAC June ' IHS

14 Percent Growth (%) 14 Machinery production lag in China a slight concern China economic figures 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: IHS Real GDP Industrial production Machinery production 2016 IHS

15 Machinery production growth profiles Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates % Growth of machinery production measured in US $ CAGR US 9.4% 0.5% -1.8% 1.4% -0.7% 1.6% 3.7% 3.4% 1.6% Germany -4.7% 4.1% 1.6% -19.2% -0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% -1.7% China 5.7% 7.5% 6.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.0% Japan 1.4% -13.1% 1.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 1.4% Source: IHS; Industry Publications IHS % 25% 0% -25% -50% US Germany China Japan Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $ Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates % Growth of machinery production measured in US $ CAGR Americas 1.4% -2.4% -0.7% 0.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 1.2% Europe Asia 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9% Pacific 11.0% -5.1% 5.3% 0.5% -1.9% 1.9% 3.0% 6.4% 1.4% Source: IHS; Industry Publications IHS % 25% 0% -25% -50% Americas Europe Asia Pacific Percentage growth rates of machinery production in US $ Total Machinery Production Percentage Growth Rates % Growth of machinery production measured $ and CAGR Europe ( ) -1.8% 1.9% -2.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% Europe ($) 1.4% 1.8% -18.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% -0.9% Source: IHS; Industry Publications IHS % 0% -25% -50% Europe ( ) Europe ($) Percentage growth rates of European machinery production. Comparison of $ against 15

16 Industrial motor market insights 2016 IHS 16

17 Overview of industrial motor market (Low-voltage AC & DC, integral horsepower) 2016 forecast revenue $10.7B World revenue by region (%) Top-3 Leading Suppliers ABB Americas 27% EMEA 30% Asia 43% Siemens WEG Revenue CAGR ( ) Americas -0.1% Asia 0.2% EMEA -1.0% 17

18 Low Voltage Motor Suppliers in the World WORLD (major players) ABB (inc. Baldor) Siemens WEG Regal Beloit TECO E&M/TECO-Westinghouse Leroy Somer Toshiba Shandong Huali Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal Hyosung Corporation NIDEC (US Motors) Next-tier Competitors Toshiba Shandong Huali Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal Hyosung Corporation NIDEC (US Emerson) LEZ Ruselprom Gamak GE Industrial Tech Full Simo Cantoni Motor Fuji Electric Hengshui (OX) Crompton Greaves Tatung Corporation ATB Group (Wolong) VEM Group Luan JiangHuai Anhui Wannan

19 Global MEPS Timeline World - Legislative Timeline: US: earliest for IE2 IE2: US & Canada IE2: Mexico IE2: Australia IE1: China IE2: S. Korea, Φ1 IE2: Brazil IE2: S. Korea, Φ2 IE3/NEMA Premium : US IE2: European Union, Φ1 US: Earliest for IE3/NEMA Europe IE2/GB3: China IE2: Turkey European Union, Φ2 7.5kW - 375kW IE2+VFD or IE3 Japan 'Top Runner' IE3 or better *Lot #30 Proposal* European Union 0.75kW - 375kW Exclusively IE3 European Union, Φ3 0.75kW - 7.5kW IE2+VFD or IE3 IE3/NEMA Premium : Canada IE3/GB2: China Source: IHS; IE4 Low-Voltage Motors IHS

20 Units (k) Rapid efficiency class transitions across all regions The world market for low-voltage motors - unit shipments from 2010 to ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Brazil starts IE2 US starts IE3/NEMA Premium shift EU starts IE2 shift China starts IE2 shift Canada starts IE3/NEMA Premium shift EU (Phase 2) and Japan start IE3 shift 2016 and beyond are estimated EU (Phase 3) and China start IE3 shift 4,000 2, Source: IHS IE1 - Standard Efficiency IE2 - High Efficiency IE3 - Premium Efficiency 2015 IHS 20

21 Slow unit growth doesn t alter efficiency transition EFFICIENCY CLASS TRANSITIONS (UNITS) Global Low Voltage Motors - Efficiency Class Transition: 2015 to 2020 IE4 <1% DC <1% Others 8% IE4 2% DC <1% Others 7% IE3 17% IE1 40% IE3 23% IE1 27% IE2 34% IE2 41% 2015 Market Size (Units) 40.1 Million Average Annual Unit Growth 0.5% 2020 Market Size (Units) 41.7 Million 21

22 Revenues ($M) Growth (%) Major motor applications The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth 4, % 3, % 3, % -6.0% 2, % 2, % 1, % 1, % -16.0% % % Source: IHS 2015 Revenues Growth 2016 Growth IHS 22

23 COST MANAGEMENT IN THE CAR M O T O R E L E C T R I C WINDSHIELD WIPER MOTOR # Motors: 1.8 ASP: $6 # Motors: 1.9 ASP: $5.6 POWER ROOF MOTOR # Motors: 1 ASP: $7.6 # Motors: 1 ASP: $7.4 POWER WINDOWS # Motors: 4.0 ASP: $7.1 # Motors: 4.0 ASP: $ POWER DOOR/TAIL GATE MOTOR AIRFLOW SYSTEM # Motors: 1.8 ASP: $8.9 # Motors: 1.8 ASP: $8.8 # Motors: 5.8 ASP: $9.6 ELECTRIC THROTTLE MOTOR # Motors: 1 ASP: $9.8 # Motors: 6.1 ASP: $8.9 # Motors: 1 ASP: $13.4 ENGINE COOLING SYSTEM # Motors: 2.4 ASP: $11.2 # Motors: 2.6 ASP: $11.1 DOOR MIRRORS MOTORS # Motors: 3.2 ASP: $3.4 # Motors: 3.3 ASP: $3.0 E-SUSPENSION MOTORS # Motors: 4 ASP: $8.80 # Motors: 4 ASP: $8.50 POWER SEATING MOTORS # Motors:13.9 ASP: $7.9 # Motors:14.8 ASP: $7.2 ADAPTIVE HEADLIGHTS MOTORS # Motors: 2.7 ASP: $4.1 # Motors: 2.9 ASP: $3.7 BRAKING MOTORS # Motors: 3 ASP: $12.9 # Motors: 3 ASP: $12.5 POWER STEERING MOTORS # Motors: 1 ASP: $38.4 # Motors: 1 ASP: $30.1

24 Technology change in manufacturing and machinery 2016 IHS 24

25 Internet of Things Evolution Internet of Everything (IoE): represents the open access to data from one or more monitoring and control systems by third-party applications to provide unique, additional value to stakeholders. Connec t Device s Collect Data Access Data Comple x Analytic s Unique Value Connectivity Intelligence Sensors Storage Cloud Standards Open APIs Big Data Realize the true potential of a connected society. Where we are today. Next stage security is key challenge! Ideal goal many years away 25

26 Sensors used for condition monitoring Vibration sensors Oil analysis Condition Monitoring Thermography Of all the parameters that can be measured non-intrusively in industry today, the one containing the most information is the vibration signature, Art Crawford Other machine quality parameters: temperature, pressure, speed etc 26

27 Changes in technology smart manufacturing / Industry 4.0 Digitization Mass Customization Remote Diagnostics Predictive Maintenance Energy Efficiency Demand Driven Manufacturing Mobility Industry

28 What do machine users want? Other than increasing production, what do you think is the main factor driving automation investment within your company? Count Improve Improve product quality flexibility (e.g. for faster new product introduction, or preparing for smaller batch sizes) Source: IHS Sample size = 915 Sample frame = all respondents Improving energy efficiency Improving safety Improving collaboration between different teams Efficiently managing inventory Compliance with environmental regulation Improving cybersecurity 28

29 Steps from reactive to predictive maintenance Prescriptive maintenance Impending failures are predicted based on data analytics, system operation can be adjusted to allow for prolonged product lifetime and alignment with convenient repair schedules Predictive maintenance Impending failures are predicted based on data analytics, allowing for pro-active response minimizing downtime and improving efficiency of maintenance teams Condition monitoring Definition of suitable measures depending on the current condition of the system based on diagnostic data and remote monitoring Preventative maintenance Repair and maintenance work is scheduled based on predefined intervals Reactive maintenance Response to failure or impaired performance of product 29

30 30 Conclusion Key Takeaways: Worldwide commitment for systems efficiency is best hope for growth in the motor market amid such difficult economic times Motor suppliers enduring hard times; but strong opportunities exist Notable actions: With a shift towards efficiency and smart manufacturing, all industrial players need to be thinking about how to simplify things for their customers by providing a full holistic solution This means that motor suppliers are looking to offer more than just a motor, but services and extra components, as well, in order to fit in with the rapidly evolving Industry 4.0

31 31 Thank you! Any questions? Preston Reine Senior Analyst and Group Manager, Manufacturing Technology