CWIEME Industrial Motors and Drives: A Global Market Update. Presented by: Preston Reine, Research Manager IHS Markit Industrial Automation

Transcription

1 1 CWIEME 2017 Industrial Motors and Drives: A Global Market Update Presented by: Preston Reine, Research Manager IHS Markit Industrial Automation

2 Agenda Economic update Motor and drive market statistics Emerging technologies Conclusion

3 Industrial Automation research areas DISCRETE & PROCESS AUTOMATION ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS CAPTIAL EQUIPMENT & MACHINERY Controllers Industrial Communications Process Instrumentation Visualization Smart Manufacturing Drives Mechanical Power Transmission Motors 3D Printing Generators Machinery Motor Driven Equipment Switchgear Turbines

4 What do machine users want? Other than increasing production, what do you think is the main factor driving automation investment within your company? Count Improve Improve product quality flexibility (e.g. for faster new product introduction, or preparing for smaller batch sizes) Source: IHS Sample size = 915 Sample frame = all respondents Improving energy efficiency Improving safety Improving collaboration between different teams Efficiently managing inventory Compliance with environmental regulation Improving cybersecurity 4

5 Global economic outlook 2017 IHS 5

6 Global economic summary Global growth will pick up from 2.5% in 2016 to 3.1% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018, led by the United States and emerging markets. The US economy will benefit from sustained growth in consumer spending and perception of an improving tax and regulatory climate. Eurozone growth will be steady, but UK growth is expected to slow through 2018 as Brexit-related uncertainty delays investment. China s economic growth will slow as excess debt and excess industrial capacity constrain investment and policy stimulus options. Asia s other emerging markets will sustain robust growth. Russia and Brazil will slowly recover from recessions. 6

7 Percent change World trade volume and industrial production are accelerating markedly in 2017 Global real GDP, industrial production, and real exports Real GDP Industrial production Real goods & services trade Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit 7

8 Fixed investment is the main driver for global economic growth Real GDP and its components Percent change Real GDP Private consumption Fixed investment Government consumption World trade (exports) Industrial production Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit

9 IHS weekly indexes, 2002:1=1 Industrial materials prices are recovering but remain well below their previous peaks IHS Markit Materials Price Index All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit 9

10 Annual input cost growth Input costs increased in 2017, but not to a sustainable level Global Medium-voltage motor input motor costs input with costs forecasted - World - annual Annual growth 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% % -15% Source: IHS Markit Copper Labor Metal Products Steel 2017 IHS Markit 10

11 Industrial motor and drive market insights 2017 IHS 11

12 Overview of industrial low-voltage motor market 2017 estimated unit shipments World revenue by region (%) 39.8M Top-3 Leading Suppliers ABB Americas 27% EMEA 31% Asia 42% Siemens WEG Unit shipment CAGR ( ) Americas 0.8% Asia 3.3% EMEA 0.0% 12

13 Electric Motors Overview Leading regional vendors Americas Asia Pacific EMEA 1 ABB 1 Wolong 1 Siemens 2 WEG 2 Siemens 2 ABB 3 Nidec 3 ABB 3 ATB Motors 4 Regal Beloit 4 TECO 4 WEG 5 TECO 5 Hitachi 5 Leroy Somer Market trends: Average selling prices (ASP) and supply chain are crucial More standards and weak profit = manufacturer focus on training, lean manufacturing, R&D As higher-priced IE3/NEMA Premium efficiency motors become more prevalent, ASPs will increase from one efficiency class to the next 15-20% increase in motor price between comparable motors for each efficiency rating Decreased supply chain costs don t help with profitability Consumers cost-conscious, but leading suppliers offering broader solutions Brand recognition is very important still, but less than in recent years 13

14 Electric Motors Overview Efficiency Ratings and Regulations Over the past decade, motor efficiency regulations have gotten stricter Majority of regions still allow IE2/high efficiency motors to be placed on the market > These are expected to continue outpacing the average market growth > Brushed DC motors and IE1/standard efficiency motors will continue to be phased out by conversions to moreefficient operations. > Proposed regulations and scope revisions mandating IE3/premium efficiency motors will not inhibit IE2/high efficiency motor market growth before 2021 > While the niche market for IE4/super premium efficiency motors is outpacing the rest of the low-voltage motor market, no current or proposed regulations mandate their use little urgency to adopt Technology Sensors The rudimentary role of motors has largely prevented the development of Industry 4.0 > Communication functionality and intelligence is typically deferred to motor controls or end equipment. > However, suppliers growing focus on system analytics and optimization has increased the value of any data that can be collected and used for system modelling > Aftermarket motor sensors have been developed to monitor temperature, vibration, and other motor behavior that could indicate an impending failure. 14

15 Units (k) Global MEPS Timeline The world market for low-voltage motors - unit shipments from 2010 to ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Brazil starts IE2 US starts IE3/NEMA Premium shift EU starts IE2 shift China starts IE2 shift EU (Phase 2) and Japan start IE3 shift EU (Phase 3) and China start IE3 shift (delayed) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Canada starts IE3/NEMA Premium shift DOE Amended Integral Horsepower Rule 2017 and beyond are estimated IE1 - Standard Efficiency IE2 - High Efficiency IE3 - Premium Efficiency 2015 IHS The LV Motor market has been declining or flat since sales will decline by 2.4%

16 EFFICIENCY CLASS TRANSITIONS (UNITS) Global Low Voltage Motors - Efficiency Class Transition: 2016 to 2021 IE4 <1% DC <1% Others 8% IE4 2% DC <1% Others 7% IE3 17% IE1 40% IE3 23% IE1 27% IE2 34% IE2 41% 2016 Market Size (Units) 39.6 Million Average Annual Unit Growth 1.9% 2021 Market Size (Units) 43.5 Million IE1 motors drastically reduced in shipments from 2014 to 2016 (46% share to 40%, respectively), largely due to increased focus on efficiency in Western Europe, North America, and China. Compliance, emerging technologies are potential headwinds going forward 16

17 Revenues ($M) Growth (%) Major motor applications The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth 3, % 3, % 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% % % Source: IHS 2016 Revenues Growth 2017 Growth IHS 17

18 Unit Shipments (k) VFD Unit Shipment Growth ( CAGR) 18 Major motor applications Importance of pumps, fans, & compressors IIoT slow to pick up for these markets The World Market for Pumps, Fans & Compressors VFD Penetration 40, % Low oil prices smarter technologies 35,000 30, % Suppliers reported an increased focus on packaged systems with VFDs and sensors for process industries Technology isn t novel, but the application into properly sized and maintained equipment is 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, % 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Training programs educate end users and propel sales of energy efficient motors and drives - Source: IHS Markit 0.0% Pumps Compressors Fans With VFD No VFD VFD CAGR 2017 IHS

19 Electric Drives Overview CapEx vs OpEx China and India very price sensitive Suppliers having to lower cost by substituting materials used (aluminum in lieu of copper) Can easily save 30-40%, but decision depends type of consumer Technology Transformerless drives growing in space-needy applications Many energy-intensive applications don t utilize drives > Large growth prospects in HVAC, water/wastewater, for example Electrification is disrupting power transmission applications, but to what extent? Drive suppliers focusing on partnerships with data providers/monitors > Causes confusion and questions over who owns the data > Largely misunderstood currently, but many case studies prove its efficacy 19

20 Overview of industrial low-voltage drives market 2017 estimated unit shipments World shipments by region (%) 18.6M Top-3 Leading Suppliers ABB Americas 16% EMEA 25% Asia 59% Siemens Danfoss Unit shipment CAGR ( ) Americas 3.9% Asia 3.5% EMEA 3.5% 20

21 Technology change in manufacturing and machinery 2017 IHS 21

22 Internet of Things Evolution Internet of Everything (IoE): represents the open access to data from one or more monitoring and control systems by third-party applications to provide unique, additional value to stakeholders. Connect Devices Collect Data Access Data Complex Analytics Unique Value Connectivity Intelligence Sensors Storage Cloud Standards Open APIs Big Data Realize the true potential of a connected society. Where we are today. Next stage security is key challenge! Ideal goal many years away 22

23 23 Motors in IoT IHS Markit s Industrial Communication Intelligence Service estimates that: In 2016, 4.7% of motors were network enabled Less than 1% of motors were connected. Growth for connected nodes in motors during the forecast period is higher than the world market average. Majority of networking technology used in motors is Fieldbus. Ethernet will surpass Fieldbus in Motors 4.7% enabled devices 9.6% new devices connected Pumps & compressors 0.1% enabled devices 2.2% new devices connected Generators & turbines 47.3% enabled devices 100% new devices connected NEW TO 2017 EDITION

24 Existing applications for IoT Design Operations Maintenance Supply Chain Harley-Davidson Reduced model New Product Introduction (NPI) from more than a year to 1.5 weeks Maserati reduced number of prototypes, and time to market resulting in 30% less development time. Petroflow Energy Corp. Site power consumption reduced by 43% Marathon Petroleum Company Alarm rate reduced by approx. 90% Husky Injection Moulding productivity and cycle time gained from 3% to 12% CNH Industrial average maintenance time reduced by 50% Fanuc Saved US$2M from reduced downtime Nova Chemicals reactive emergency work reduced by 47% and time spent on proactive, preventative maintenance has increased by 61% Sandvik Coromant Monitors existence of any bottlenecks in the overall supply chain Shanghai CHILO Press Company Inventory error rate reduced from 50% to 4% within 6 months. Inventory control converted US$95k loss to a US$158k profit

25 25 Conclusion Key Takeaways: Efficiency will improve, but IoT has brought forth other solutions that can dwarf the benefits of simply buying one efficient product Motor and drive suppliers still enduring hard times; but strong opportunities exist (construction, commercial HVAC, water) Notable actions: Full solution offerings continue to be a better business model than niche product manufacturing Uptime as a service is likely the future! This means that motor suppliers are looking insert themselves all along the supply chain to best understand customer needs

26 26 Thank you! Any questions? Preston Reine Research Manager, Industrial Automation