Future of Mobility: A view of the DfT s direction of travel

Transcription

1 Future of Mobility: A view of the DfT s direction of travel Prof. Phil Blythe, Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Transport 1 The Midlands Intelligent Mobility, Nottingham, 24 Turing Lecture th January 2018

2 The CSA: My Objectives Provide leadership on developing technology and innovation Improve the strategy for science and innovation research and future proof decision making in the DfT Position DfT as a leader in science across Whitehall and maximise value of the SAC Develop stronger links between science and internal stakeholders and provide strategic science input and evidence into analysis work programmes Identify and deliver on a number of high priority scientific issues including: air quality and vehicle emissions; intelligent infrastructure and smart condition monitoring ; older people mobility and accessibility; big data/smart Cities and MaaS; railway signalling/digital railways; drones and future flight; spaceflight; engineering skills; and cooperative and autonomous vehicle Support Industrial Strategy and Sector Deals Future-proof DfT investment decisions through science 2

3 What is driving the agenda? Innovation based companies will be attracted to UK cities that will use their technology and skills BIS calculates that the Smart Transport market will be worth $100 million by Resilience can be improved through technology to anticipate and quickly react to extreme weather events that can cripple transport Technology is influencing all aspects of city life and offers new ways to plan and manage transport according to peoples needs Transport has a significant impact on poor air quality, technology can reduce this Alleviate pressure on existing infrastructure and services and reduce congestion Behaviour shifts have led to new travel options, such as working from home or the using the sharing economy. Mobility for older and impaired traveller Increasing urbanisation puts more pressure on transport and new solutions are needed Benefits to travellers can be achieved without large scale infrastructure building 3

4 Role of Government why do we get involved? 4

5 Department for Transport Key Intelligent Mobility Innovations 5

6 Five Pillars of future ITS/Intelligent Mobility Connected Moves as part of system in time, multi-modal DATA: The key to new network management people and freight Automated FULLY automated can move when empty HIGHLY automated needs a «driver» Electric Ideally electric or other future energy source Pricing Shared Increased interest in shared fleets and use of mobility as a service The key to place-making benefits Source: WSP, ITS Montreal 6

7 Trends in automation Not limited to cars: new technologies such as last mile delivery pods, drones, moving in to areas of traditional transport such as trains, ships and agriculture Changing consumer perceptions. Consumers are increasingly expecting information to be available readily and easily. The smart phone is the only thing some people need to consume transport. A move toward a sharing economy. Asset ownership (cars) could be diminishing. Ride sharing and car sharing could lead to a shift away from private car ownership. UK ambition to be a world leader with over 300m invested or committed 7 The Future of Mobility

8 8 The Future of Mobility

9 9 The Future of Mobility

10 So, what are we doing CCAV Test Beds 10

11 Ultra Low Emission Vehicles: Government s ambition One of the longest, most comprehensive packages of support in the world We will end the sale of new conventional petrol and diesel cars by 2040 and almost every car and van to be zero emission by 2050 Air Quality Plan, July

12 Key barriers we are tackling Upfront cost Ultra Low Emission Vehicles (ULEVs) tend to cost more upfront than petrol or diesel equivalents due to the cost of battery or fuel cell technologies. However, prices are coming down as sales increase, and running cost savings from ULEVs can be substantial. Range and recharging Electric vehicles need new infrastructure and are a different proposition for drivers used to refuelling with petrol or diesel. Ongoing improvements in new ULEVs ranges, resulting from advances in battery technology, and improving refuelling and recharging infrastructure will help ease this transition. Public misconceptions Consumer concerns do not always reflect the reality of owning and driving ULEV. The Go Ultra Low campaign aims to address misconceptions. Supply of vehicles from manufacturers Technology development Electric vehicle technology needs continued investment to accelerate performance improvements and prepare ULEVs for the mass market. Government research support encourages this technology development, and investment in the industry. ULEVs registered Energy system The extra electricity demand from uptake of electric vehicles could require some increased generating capacity and upgrades to local electricity connections. Other vehicles Taxis and buses significantly impact on urban air quality, but have particular challenges for electrification. Freight must also be tackled. A regulatory framework helps encourage manufacturers to clean up their vehicles and bring ULEVs to market. 12

13 Total Government investment in ULEV is now nearly 1.5 billion until 2020/21 Infrastructure Investment Fund ( m) Plug-in Car Grants ( m) Plug-in Van and Truck Grants ( m) Plug-in Motorcycle Grants ( m) Plug-in Taxi Grants ( m) ~ 1.5 billion 2015/ /21 PROGRAMME Domestic Chargepoint Grants ( m) Other Infrastructure Grants ( m) Highways England Rapids ( m) Taxi Infrastructure Grants ( m) Research & Development ( m) The triangle of supply Go Ultra Low campaign ( m) (Regulation and R&D), demand (consumer Go Ultra Low Cities ( m) incentives and ULEZ) and infrastructure (supporting use). Zero and Low Emission Buses ( m) London ( m) Hydrogen Fuel Cell EV Grants ( m) Hydrogen Refuelling Stations ( m) Public Sector Fleet support ( m) % new cars ULEVs % new cars and vans ZEVs 2050 Almost all cars and vans ZEVs + 100m Fiscal Incentives (HMT) + 500m Advanced Propulsion Centre (BEIS)

14 Connected Intelligent infrastructure (CITS) 14

15 Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is happening 15 The Future of Mobility

16 The Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill is progressing through the House of Commons During the debates at the Committee stage of the Bill s passage, the Minister committed to introducing an amendment which would take powers to allow the transmission of data relating to charge points The Bill completed Commons Committee Stage on 16 November Next is Report Stage (29 January) when the Amendment will be introduced Followed by Third Reading. Then the Bill will move to the House of Lords.

17 The way forward is challenging Do we understand what users really want? Do we understand what impact automation will have (more/less congestion, health etc.) will we end up with the point to point commercial MaaS where other social responsible transport services, such as buses and conventional taxi services are unable to compete? will electromobility get adopted with the number of vehicles required to ensure a transition to low carbon, will infrastructure to recharge be available in a way that it does not hinder uptake and will the business models exist to support this? will ULEV s be ULEV s or will there be gamification by the OEM s? How can we avoid being beguiled by the new technologies? Do we need to consider transport as a whole system rather than a collection of loosely connected modes? Are local authorities & other stakeholders engaged? Is the DfT doing enough to let the UK know what is our ambition? 17

18 Foresight Future of Mobility

19 What are we doing at DfT? The Future of Mobility became one of four Grand Challenges set out by the Industrial Strategy, sitting alongside Clean Growth, the Ageing population and Artificial Intelligence. A commitment to publish a Future of Urban Mobility strategy within 12 months. A regulatory review to ensure we have the right regulations in place to encourage innovation, but also regulations that allow us to make decisions around the introduction of new technologies and control them where it benefits the transport ecosystem and society. 19 The Future of Mobility

20 Futures Slides (not used) 20 Other technologies that might surprise us

21 At least 19 companies are developing short range flying cars Volocopter Airbus Terrafugia (a Volvo group company) Uber 21 The Future of Mobility

22 Flying cars Battery technology advances for mobile phones and cars has made short haul electric aviation completely technologically feasible. Experts tell us that flying cars could be used to replace private helicopter travel within cities, or be used more widely as an aviation-based Mobility as a Service offer (Uber SxSW example). These type of aircraft are being prototyped now. Volocopter trialled in Dubai September 17. Singapore also has plans trials. Airbus will fly their first prototype in 2017 (pictures unveiled yesterday) Uber Elevate - aerial taxis in LA by 2020, and have joined the consortium using NASAs UAV airspace management system Uber s explicit goal is to develop a flying car that costs something similar to a road based vehicle. 22 The Future of Mobility

23 Hybrid seat aircraft will come into service in the early 2020s, intended for national type routes competing with rail Airfield locations in the UK 23 The Future of Mobility

24 Flying trains These are short take of and landing hybrid aircraft, with capacity from seats. Very quiet on take off as this is electrically assisted. Small 20 seater aircraft are coming in the early 2020s, with 200 seaters coming in the late 2020s. There are a huge number of existing airfields they could operate from. User experience could be like taking a train. Rolls Royce and Airbus have explicitly envisioned these as competing with national rail. Could create competition to inter city rail. Competitor to large aviation hubs. Free up capacity at major aviation hubs for international flights. Reduce ground level congestion, increasing available land in cities There are a huge number of existing airfields they could operate from. User experience could be like taking a train. Could create competition to inter city rail. Competitor to large aviation hubs. 24 The Future of Mobility

25 UK as a Leader in Drone Technology DfT s support for emerging aviation technologies markets is establishing the UK as a global leader in advanced technology and innovation, building on a strong aerospace sector, creating highly skilled jobs and fostering growth. Drones is a prime example of that, identified as a key strand of Robotics and Autonomous Systems element of the Industrial Strategy. Working with DfT and BEIS colleagues on the future of mobility, considering what technologies may be required to facilitate and benefit from technologies such as autonomous flying taxis. Designing an unmanned traffic management system for drones which could ensure such technologies were managed in a safe and secure way whilst realising the full potential. 25 The Future of Mobility

26 Smart infrastructure and construction DfT is already big in smart infrastructure. Smart infrastructure and construction combine building information modelling (BIM), offsite construction, automation and robots, new materials and built in sensors. In construction Reduces onsite construction by as much as 80%. Labour is reduced by 70%. New materials allow for longer lifespans bridges can be built from carbon fibre and assembled onsite, plastic road panels can be made in a factory and assembled onsite. Sensors allow for fine tuning in construction and monitoring in use. Sensors in vehicle and engines allow for preventative maintenance and new business models. In operation, reduces maintenance costs (mileage may very) and allows for new value based business models. Well understood technologies that are slowly rolling out across the construction industry. 26 The Future of Mobility

27 What if these undergo rapid adoption by 2030? If new infrastructure is lower cost, can be faster deployed faster, with fewer local impacts and lower maintenance costs, what opportunities will this create? More projects in rail and road within the same budgets imagine the impact on rail electrification of power line gantry construction offsite Resilience to changes in workforce post-brexit or improved productivity. If this is viable now, how do we change the baseline of what we ask for? What would flying cars mean for our cities? For congestion? For safety? For deliveries? How could hybrid-aviation affect interurban congestion? What would it do to the business cases for our railways? 27 The Future of Mobility