S u m m e r s c h o o l J u l y T i m H e t t e s h e i m e r

Transcription

1 Klaus Mellenthin THE GERMAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY ON THE ROAD TO E-MOBILITY S u m m e r s c h o o l J u l y T i m H e t t e s h e i m e r

2 Shortcuts ICE = Internal Combustion Engine = Conventional vehicle EV = Electric Vehicle = Hybrids and Battery electric vehicles BEV = Battery electric vehicle = Pure electric car Seite 2

3 History of the EV 1899: Porsche develops the Lohner, the first electric vehicle 1834: Thomas Davenport developed the first battery operated engine for a model car Seite 3

4 The first EV Source: Wikipedia Seite 4

5 History of the EV 1899: Porsche develops the Lohner, the first electric vehicle 1834: Thomas Davenport developed the first battery operated engine for a model car 1900: More than EV are on american roads, which equates a market share of 38 % 1908: First automobile mass production by Ford (ICEs) Until 1960: Shutdown of EV development because of high costs Today: Almost all vehicle manufacturer have developed EV prototypes 1970: Because of the oil crisis many countries start to invest in alternative drives Seite 5

6 A glimpse into the future ICE Source: McKinsey; Boost! Battery capacity Electric output Range (electric) Fuel saving potenital Source: Bain & Company 2010 Hybrid Range Extender Battery Fuel Cell Range Extender BEV Plug-In Hybrid Full Hybrid Mild Hybrid Source: heise photo Seite 6

7 A look into the past Source: Fraunhofer IAO Seite 7

8 .and what went wrong? In 1990 General Motors presents a prototype of the EV1 In 1996 the EV-1 was introduced to the market Instead of planned vehicles, only cars were produced and 800 were leased to costumers for 3 years In 1999 GM scrapped all EV-1 because of low demand Source: automotivetribune.com Seite 8

9 Consumer concer ns Politics and power supplier Charging Capabilities charging time, which usually takes hours the necessary infrastructure support, e.g. the number of available charging stations Costs The higher purchase price of an EV compared to an ICE Range of Vehicles The maximum range of an EV is shorter compared to an ICE In Germany nearly 60 % drive less than 40 km per day and 80 % less than 70 km. However, there exists a Range Anxiety based on the loss of a range-flexibility Automotive industry Seite 9

10 Constraint: Costs Seite 10

11 Comparison of the cost structure between an BEV and an ICT Cost structure ICE (in ) (Example: Felxible city car) Cost structure BEV (in ) (Example: Felxible city car) Internal combustion engine Battery (18 kwh; 530 /kwh) Clutch; transmission 400 E-Motor; power electronics; battery CO2 optimisation 300 Remaining vehicle Remaining vehicle Manufacturing costs Manufacturing costs R&D R&D Dealer-, OEM and importer margin Dealer-, OEM and importer margin Purchase tax Purchase tax Ø ICE list price Ø EV list price Source: Bundesumweltamt 2009 Seite 11

12 Cost reduction by improvement of the battery production process Production costs: Improvement of production processes. Especially of the quality Relative share [in %] Employees Capital Material Energy Quality costs Quality costs decline from 26 % to 8 % Source: Reppening (2011); Schlüsselfaktoren für die qualitäts- und kostenoptimierte Lithium- Batterieproduktion Share of battery development costs [EUR/piece] Battery manufacturer with k EV/a 100 Development costs: Realization of economies of scale Disadvantage of small manufacturers: 450 EUR / battery Battery manufacturer 1 with 500 k EV/a Production volume p.a. Source: Bohr (2008); Automobilzulieferer in herausfordernden Zeiten Seite 12

13 Cost reduction by an optimized manufacturing Example calculation of target manufacturing costs of a BEV Small car 2015; Range 200 km; in Battery 2015 (ISI): /kwh Extra charge for variable valve control; Down sizing ICE: 1,60 /l 4,8 l/100km BEV: 0,15 /kw 14 kwh/100km Driving performance: km Extra charge for gasoline direct injection Capacity: 30 kwh Range: 200 km 5840 Price: 350 /kwh 5330 Manufacturing costs for a conventional vehicle Customers willingness to pay more Tax incentives Savings operating costs Battery Target costs for an BEV Source: ISI (2010); Vergleich von Strom und Wasserstoff als CO 2 freie Energieträger Source: Kampker (2010); Integrierte Produkt- und Produktionsentwicklung von E-Fahrzeugen Seite 13

14 Cost reduction by car concept: Conversion Design Characteristics: Conversion of a conventional vehicle Adaption to electric power train No new packaging Integration into existing production lines % Component costs Manufacturing costs Gap of 15 % between target and actual costs Optimized vehicle with ICE Obsolete parts New and modified parts Conversion- BEV-200 actual costs BEV-200 target costs Source: Kampker (2010); Integrierte Produkt- und Produktionsentwicklung von E-Fahrzeugen Seite 14

15 Cost reduction by car concept: Purpose Design Characteristics: Design to Manufacture - Concept Construction of an independent EV New power-train concept New Packaging New production structure Source: BMW Overhead Press plant Body shell shop Paint shop Assembly Component costs Source: Mindset % 1894 ICE Manufacturing costs ICE Production costs Purpose Design (Production optimized) Reduction of manufacturing complexity by product configuration close to the customer (at the end of the process chain) Reduction of: Assembly faults Variant specific tools Line balancing losses Assembly costs -10 % Modularization of the vehicle structure Reduction of: Planning efforts Tools and components Assembly complexity Production costs -15 % Source: Kampker (2010); Integrierte Produkt- und Produktionsentwicklung von E-Fahrzeugen Seite 15

16 Constraint: Range Seite 16

17 Specific output, W/kg (cell level) Range extension by: Battery capacity Today: Lithium - ion batteries Range: < 150 km Weight: 250 kg Energy density: ~ 100 Wh/kg Source: Gaia Pb Lithium - sulfur batteries Energy density: ~ 300 Wh/kg Pb Energy density, Wh/kg (cell level) Source: Wirtschaftsministerium Baden-Württemberg Strukturstudie BWe mobil 2030: Lithium - air batteries Weight: 250 kg Energy density: ~ 5000 Wh/kg Range: < 800 km Source: ISI (2010); Technologie-Roadmap- Lithium-Ionen-Batterien Seite 17

18 Range extension by: Improvement of components Actual Energy Consumption: Component: Measure: Auxiliary equipment & air conditioning New highly effective thermosystems Brakes Energy recovery (recuperation) Energy consumption: kwh/100km Drive losses Rolling resistance Aerodynamics More efficient engines and electronics Low-friction tires Aerodynamic optimized car bodies Vehicle weight New materials and processes Source: Bohr (2008); Automobilzulieferer in herausfordernden Zeiten Seite 18

19 Range extension by: Weight reduction Weight distribution of a middle-class car Equipment 15% Drive 16% Electronics 5% Chassis 25% Car body 21% Shell 18% Car body: Vehicle frame and structure parts, Shell: Doors, cowling, trunk lid,.. Measures for weight reduction Alternative materials: high-strength steel or aluminium Magnesium, GRP (glassfibre reinforced plastic) or CFRP (carbon-fiberreinforced plastic) Material structures: Tailored Blanks Hybrid structures Technological feasible weight reduction for car body and shell: % Reasonable choice of material and structures Source: BMW Source: PwC(2011); Strategie. Umsetzung. Controlling. Seite 19

20 Range extension by: Improvement of components Actual Energy Consumption: Component: Measure: Aimed Energy Consumption: Auxiliary equipment & air conditioning New highly effective thermosystems Brakes Energy recovery (recuperation) Energy consumption: kwh/100km Drive losses Rolling resistance More efficient engines and electronics friction-reducing tires Energy consumption: 8 15 kwh/100km Aerodynamics Aerodynamic optimized car bodies Vehicle weight New materials and processes % less Source: Bohr (2008); Automobilzulieferer in herausfordernden Zeiten Seite 20

21 Summary Seite 21

22 Summary The concept of EV exists since the beginning of the 20th. century but it failed because of high costs. Today s biggest restraints, which can be influenced by the automotive industry : Price: o Reduction of battery costs by economies of scale and an improved process quality o Construction of the EV according to the Purpose Design enables an optimized production and assembly structure. Range: o Improved battery materials o Improvement of the remaining vehicle components and weight reduction Under consideration of these measurements a BEV can be built, which is comparative to today's ICE regarding to its price. In near future BEV will not be able to reach the same range as today s ICE. Seite 22

23 Electromobility at Fraunhofer ISI Seite 23

24 Projects and areas of activities at Fraunhofer ISI View on total profitability Infrastructure developement Business Models Energy system integration Charging controls Sustainbility, battery recycling and raw materials Projects: Flottenversuch Elektromobilität (E.ON, VW ) (BMU) MeregioMobil (Daimler, EnBW, Bosch ) (BMWi) Fraunhofer Systemforschung Elektromobilität (BMBF) Begleitforschung LIB 2015 und EMOTOR (BMBF) Automobilzulieferer in Sackgasse? (IHK) Vergleich Wasserstoff Strom (RWE) Sozialwiss. Begleitforschung der Modellregionen (BMVBS) Systembetrachtung Elektromobilität (TAB) Roller- und Erstnutzerstudie Baden-Würtenberg (EnBW) Verschiedene Verkehrswirtschaftliche Studien (EU, TAB, u.a.) Transport economic concepts Customer acceptance of vehicles and controls Macroeconomic evaluation Battery development Competitiveness Roadmapping Value supply chains Seite 24

25 Seite 25