Electromobility a reality in evolution asking for advanced embedded systems

Transcription

1 Gent 27 October 2010 ITEA2-ARTEMIS 2010 Summit Mobile and cloud power enabling massive scalability and opportunities for growth Electromobility a reality in evolution asking for advanced embedded systems Pietro Perlo Centro Ricerche Fiat Torino, Europe Transport in Europe: Challenge in Transportation Passenger transport set to grow 27% by 2020 (World 35%/dec until 2050) Freight transport set to grow 34% by ,000 fatalities a year in EU-27 >0.3millions by 2020 or 15 millions all over the world and many more induced by car emissions (World Health Org.). 26% Greenhouse gas emission (amongst those due to human activities*) 73% of all oil consumed *EPA Gov. USA Clean Air Act, 17 April 2009 In the US GHG emissions from transport is 28% of the total. Emissions of greenhouse gases from on-road vehicles regulated by sector 202(a) of the Clean Air Act contribute to the climate change problem. These sources are responsible for 24 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities that is 4 percent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions. 1

2 Road Deaths to 2050 actual vs potential 2010: 1,4Milioni di morti per incidenti stradali million lives could be saved applying a road safety policy era! Road fatalities and. NOx and particulate pollution due to road transportation is a major problem not only in new high tech emerging countries fatalities a year in EU-27...but every year more people die from the effects of traffic-related air pollution than are killed in car accident (World Health Org. See also _n_ html..the California Highway Patrol recorded 2,521 vehicular deaths in the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast Air Basin in 2006, compared to 3,812 deaths attributed to respiratory illness caused by particulate pollution.. 2

3 Primary Energy and Transports Source Sector Final Use Petroleum Transportation Transport 27-32% 99.8% HC Nat. Gas Industrial Heat 10-15% Coal Ren Residential & Commercial Electricity Electricity 50-60% Nuclear What really matters is the final use. With the advent of e-mobility from 2025 most primary energy will be converted into electricity 70-75%. Evolution of Automotive Powertrain Technologies in terms of Emissions 0,05g/km 0,5g/km 0,05g/km 170 g/km 0,025g/km 0,25g/km 0,03g/km 150 g/km Diesel PM Diesel NOx Gasoline NOx Best Av. Fleet C0 2 0,005g/km 0,15g/km 0,003g/km 0,02g/km 0,05g/km 120 g/km 0,01g/km 85 g/km Target Source: (adapted from ACEA) The engine is a smoking computer producing less dust than a smoking person! (Toward 1Billion instruction /s, against 18 Billion instruction/s of the brain) 3

4 Evolution of the Internal Combustion Engine for Automotive Applications Diesel Engines with Fuel Neutral Emissions Gasoline Engines as efficient as Diesel Downsizing 70% of research resources are currently dedicated to improve ICEs. After the common rail, multijets and multiair technologies, by 2020 peak efficiencies are likely to be improved by another 5%. But that will not change the critical new demand of liquid fuels originated in the new large high tech countries. Note1: From 2007 the global demand of liquid fuels is predicted to grow 1.3%/year until 2035 (source EIA, International energy outlook July 2010) Nothing easy and simple any more Living creatures adopt the principle first best which means resources of higher quality (easy to find and to use) Thank you Then they continue to search following a logic of next best sources or best-to-worst or more precisely the-least-worst for your attention! The efficiency and the efficacy to get energy is the principle of ecological systems. Living organisms have to continuously search for energy and store it to assure growth, reproduction, defence, competition. For an organism to use a methodology that allows to get energy with the highest net energy surplus means a competitive advantage and because of that Egoism is the first commandment in nature Humans thinks first for themselves using and abusing resources 4

5 Nothing easy and simple any more USA: Oil 1930 EROEI 100:1 (100 Barrels per every barrel spent) 1970 EROEI 25:1 1990, EROEI :1 Today EROEI 3:1 (4000 Wells in front of Florida digging oil at a depth of 5-7km) Thank you Canadian National Energy Board: Natural Gas for your attention! 1997 EROEI 35-40: 1 40 m 3 per every m 3 spent 2007 EROEI 12: EROEI 5:1 Forecast 2020 EROEI 1:1 Forecast Russia: Natural GAS President Putin at the 2008 Gas Exporting Countries Forum "The expenses necessary for developing fields are rising sharply, and this means that despite the current problems in finances the era of cheap energy resources, of cheap gas, is of course coming to an end. The search for sustainable and low cost biofuels First generation bioethanol-biodiesel are not fully sustainable Cellulosic ethanol depends on costly enzymes Algae have to be proved with a positive energy balance World 2025: biofuels will not even meet the new demand for liquid fuels! 5

6 Algae: Negative Net Energy Return Max production 10kg di algea/m 2 /year that is 75kWh of energy/m 2 /year 1kg of dry algea contains 27MJ of energy. But to produce 1 kg algea we need: Algea mixer: 2MJ Fertilizers: 5-12MJ Pumps to move the water m 3 to produce 1 kg di alghe: 16MJ Separator: 3.6MJ Essiccator: 7-8MJ Total 33-42MJ For the final trasformation in biodiesel we need to consider that algea contains in weight only 30% di oil! It s the process, stupid. Biofuels from microalgae are not yet sustainable. Gerd Klöck, Professor of Bioprocess Engineering Bremen, Germany January 6th, 2010, University of Applied Sciences,.. because of the negative energy balance associated with the production process. In the search for sustainable and low cost bio-fuels First generation biofuels are hard to justify: Low net energy balance, Low GHG reduction Interfere with food chain Third generation biofuels (algae): Still negative Net Energy balance Big Environmental Concerns Second generation biofuels (cellulosic ethanol from waste): Cost parity with Gasoline-Diesel within 2015? Very positive net energy balance >30 Large GHG reductions but...we need: o To better Understand the enzymatic process o Lower the cost of enzymes o Coordinated actions to reduce the risk of monopoles Need to define a generally accepted Metric 6

7 Road transport: What can we do? Safety is the first concern The control of noxious emissions (Health) is even more important The real problem is liquid fuel Short -medium term: use more gaseous fuels but Tons of iron per km per over 6000km, plus pump stations, valves, plus. Energy Pay back 5-7 years?...overall Net Energy balance? Leakage impact on global CO 2 equivalent emissions? With lower and lower EROEI, and growing demand. A radical reduction of fossil fuel consume would lead to a much less critical 2020 transport systems based on conventional fuels technologies. The Paradox: RE and Electrical Mobility are beneficial for the current fossil fuel economy! The convergence of Electrical Mobility and Renewable Energy from the ICT point of view. Smartness and Systems Integration are the keys! 7

8 Renewable Energy and e-mobility: some facts 2008/EU-27 new RE installations exceeded in power the new installations based on fossils!! /EU-27 amongst the new installations RE will produce more energy than those based on fossils! World : EV at 50% CAGR!! 2011 World: production of e-means will exceed that of ICEs World : RE at 35-40% CAGR World : EV to continue at 40% CAGR 160 Electrically mobility: Some facts ICE World: cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses EV World: bikes, scooters, tricycles, forklifts, microcars e-bikes China > 2 Billion Motor Vehicles (two-wheels, cars, trucks) on the roads, the production of e-means at more than 200 millions/year! 2010 > 1million EPAC, E-Bikes.. already sold in Europe. 8

9 Efficiency and innovation in transport Source: IEA 2006 & Shell Int. BV and Energy Balances of OECD&Non-OECD countries Passenger distance travelled (world) Liquid fuels Electric transport Meanwhile in China/2010 the km run by e-means and ICEVs are comparable! The convergence of EVs and RE The convergence between EVs and RE is the most effective way, E-Mobility and RE are both at a point of non return. The introduction of FEVs means: Primary energy savings: 20-40% (no petroleum) GHG reduction: 50% with respect to the ICEVs average now and in the 2020 Noxious emission in cities (Health): almost completely cancelled By 2020: 10-20% less energy to produce equivalent ICEVs New form of safe, low cost and clean mobility non possible by thermal engines. 9

10 BeyondGreen Cars: responding to people needs Identifying optimum solutions Reducing: theuseofrawmaterials energy consumption and emissions Cycling requires about half the energy of walking. Electric pedal assisted bikes run on 1.0 kilowatt-hour per 100 km (0.036MJ/km). (Source of the picture: wikipedia) EU Road mobility 2010 km run by mode normalized to a1400kgcar. Cars Mcycles Bykes SUVs -Vans 10

11 EU Road mobility: New potential for electromobility 2020 km run by mode normalized to a1400kgcar. Cars Bykes Mcycles SUVs -Vans 2010: EPAC, e-bikes cover 10% of the bike market. 2020: EPAC, e-bikes (LEVs) likely at 50% of the bike market 2020: e-cars (FEVs) likely at 5-7% of the car market Hybrids (HEVs) at 3-5% of the car market. EU Road mobility: Electronic materials 2020 Silicon > 97% exotic materials Si+, GaN, SiC km run by mode normalized to a1400kgcar. Motor 50kW Cars Motor 5kW* SUVs -Vans Bykes Mcycles LEVs FEVs HEVs *Nominal power at fixed velocity P = P(M) P air drag = P(V 3 ) Mass kg 2020: silicon only will continue to cover far the largest needs!!! 11

12 To speed up the process of electrification in EU Electrification of conventional cars will follow a step by step approach starting from the smaller ones while covering at most urban mobility. Electrical mobility in a urban environment offers new solutions difficult to meet by thermal engines (Clean ICEV requires costly and complex catalytic architectures and their radical downsizing implies a reduced overall efficiency. As a consequence it is difficult to design new clean, safe and low cost small vehicles). To accelerate the process of electrification in EU Technology and mass production of Li-ion battery will be shared with other applications areas that before 2020 will grow faster than that of Electrical Vehicles; LEVs are already a reality a large demand of battery in expected from Renewable Energy by 2015 other areas such as Aeronautics and Robotics by 2020 will contribute with limited but important demand. Power tools. The collaboration with other concurring sectors is still an issue to address! 12

13 Conservative estimation of new annual battery capacity needed by 2020 in EU EU-27 PV Installations: 20GW p /year of which 20 % equipped with batteries 60GWh 12GWh/year of battery capacity needed to store 1/3 of the electricity produced. New electromobility: EPAC, E-BIKES, LEVs (<500kg) 5millions/year 5x10 6 x 3kWh 15GWh/year of battery capacity needed FEVs- PHEVs: 1 million/year 10 6 x 20kWh 20GWh/year of battery capacity needed At /kwh it means 7,5-10 Billions /year By 2020 at world level several agencies forecast > 100Billions /year Li-ion Battery Systems Wh/kg Theoretical specific energy for different types of Li-ion batteries. Nanostructured Lithium Sulfide/Silicon demonstrated at 600Wh/kg. ACS, Yang. Nanostructured SnC/Li 2 S demonstrated at 1100Wh/kg Scrosati, Rome. 13

14 Energy needed to produce 1kWh of battery cell Li-ion Wh/kg 235Wh/kg Data taken from 4 sources including Life Cycles Analysis (Further LCA studies are necessary!) Convergence electromobility and Ren Energy Photovoltaic panels and a battery packs have very similar characteristics After 20 years only very few cells in the PV panel do not operate properly. The others are essentially operating as per their first days. The problem is not in the cells but on their connections and management. The failure of the overall system depends on electronics not so much on the cells (wafers). In a battery pack the real problem is the failure of electronics and on the complexity of the overall system. Although Li-ion technology is far less than mature, the cells are not the main cause of failure of the battery system. For both systems partition followed by sub-systems integration means simplification, cost reduction, higher robustness, higher efficiency and continue to keep control of the final product (see next slides as specific example). 14

15 Origin of PV modules installed in Italy in 2009 EUROPE 40% Italy 15% USA 14% Spain 3% Norway 2% Rest of world 6% Japan 18% China 22% Germany 20% Source: GSE Gestore Servizi Energetici June 2010 Italy 31% Origin of PV inverters installed in Italy in 2009 EUROPE 93% Austria 16% Switzerland 4% Japan 2% Denmark 1% Rest of World 5% Germany 41% Source: GSE Gestore Servizi Energetici June

16 Standard PV Panel: Lower efficiency, higher cost, higher failure rates - + cut-off diodes by-pass diodes Centralized Inverter Grid N N N DC/DC converter DC/AC converter Anti islanding MPPT inverter anti-isl. control control control Source: Francesco Pulvirenti, STMicroelectronics Partition followed by Systems Integration Distributed approach Higher efficiency, lower failure rate, cheaper system DC/DC converter DC/AC converter Anti islanding MPPT inverter anti-isl. control control control Grid Inverter with part of the electronics on the panel BOOST + MPPT + BOOST + MPPT BOOST + MPPT Source: Francesco Pulvirenti, STMicroelectronics - 16

17 Where should we focus? The modules are mainly produced outside Europe but the Intelligence is European. Currently Europe imports PV modules but exports ICT content. With the evolution of modules having embedded intelligence (microinverters integrated in each cell or in cluster of cells) part of the ICT production will move from Europe to countries producing modules. And vice versa because Europe has a strength on ICT, a portion of the most advanced production of modules will remain in Europe. Whether for solar panels or for battery packs partition followed by sub-systems integration means simplification, cost reduction, higher robustness, higher efficiency and control of the final product. The ICT content and specifically systems integration is what it is making and will continue to make Europe competitive! Wind Plant PV House PV Plant E-Car On computer IKNOgrid Remote Control System On a smart phone 17

18 V2G+I = IoE IKNOgrid Internet of Energy Internet of data & info In Eu-27 by 2020: 1 new millions of new powers sources A minimum of 5 millions of Full Electrical vehicles or Hybrid Plug-in Security to become a major issue! PROTECTED UNPROTECTED 18

19 Multi-sector European vision Common Vision on Societal Needs and Applications Co-ordinated industry programmes Ertrac Smart Grid Photonics 21 EPIA EWEA Smart, integrated (Sub-) systems, More than electronics JU ENIAC JU ARTEMIS PPP1 Green Car Architectures, Middleware, Software based integration Nanoelectronics, Wafer-level integration, Component level PPP2 Manufacture PPP3 Building PPP4 Internet Yesterday: either a JTI or Die Tomorrow : Smart Systems Integration Inside or Die 19

20 We cannot make a revolution every year! Electromobility needs consolidation: Artemis, Itea2, Eniac, FP7. should keep a fixed direction all along the coming decade implementing coordinated plans. The ICE is a 100+year old technology far less than completely mature. Electromobility is at the beginning: Robustness, reliability, efficiency, cost, easy of use do not depend so much of the improvement we will make on subsystems but on their integration level. Thecompetitionwillbemademoreand moreon theembedded intelligence. Conclusions Humans are social animals! The more we communicate via ICT the more we need to meet and touch each other Mobility of people and goods is expected to continue to grow 35% a decade per at least the next three decades ICE technology will assure a further considerable reductions of all emissions by 2020 (ambitious target 95gCO 2 /km is very likely) 4000 wells in front of Florida to extract oil at 5-7km below the surface Bio-fuels not even enough to cover the increased demand of liquid fuels Gaseous fuels are the short term cleanest possible answer E-mobility is already a reality and like RE is at a point of non return E-mobility allows new forms of clean-safe-low cost vehicles not possible by ICE The little invested by Europe requires a focus on critical ICT technologies We are in the middle or a big change on energy and mobility. 20

21 Thank you for your attention! Pietro Perlo 21