Mobility Report. UPWP Task 5.1 Annual Mobility Report March 30, 2018

Transcription

1 2018 Mobility Report UPWP Task 5.1 Annual Mobility Report March 30, 2018

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Mobility describes how easily people and goods move through our region. It s how we go to work, connect with each other, and consume the goods and services that define our quality of life. Our residents are driving more, using transit more and consuming more goods. This growth in demand corresponds to the growth in the region s economy, but the growth is not without tradeoffs. Congestion and the reliability of travel in our region is getting worse. The data presented in this is based on regional trends from 2011 to This report summarizes the quantity, quality and reliability of travel in Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. These measures were established in the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) s Congestion Management Process in 2013 and adopted in the TPO s Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan in This report also includes the performance measures adopted by the Federal Highway Administration (FWHA) for metropolitan planning. Table E-1 summarizes the 2016 results for mobility performance measures and benchmarks adopted in the Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan. The following summarizes the key results and findings: We anticipate mobility demand to grow at the same rate as the local economy. Automobile traffic increased by 4.95 percent in The number of aviation passengers and amount of freight moving through the port increased from 2011 to Traffic delays increased and average speed across the network fell by 1 mph. Traffic delays cost our region $990 million in The system s capacity is being consumed by more travelers. The vehicles-per-lane-mile on the roadway system increased 2.19 percent from 2015 to Continued investment in constructing new capacity and new connectors is needed to meet these needs. The estimated system reliability for Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) facilities is declining and is less than the 95 percent system reliability goal for SIS facilities. Either the reliability declined or the duration of congestion increased on the seven most congested corridors in the region indicating the peak has spread beyond the 5-6 p.m. peak hour. Increases in demand and congestion make it harder to get traffic flowing after major back-ups. As recurring congestion increases, additional investments are needed in Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSM&O) strategies to ensure we get the most from our system. About 80 percent of travel is single-occupancy vehicle trips, which remained unchanged from prior years. In North Florida, the average vehicle occupancy in 2016 was 1.64 persons-pervehicle. In 2016, vehicle crashes cost our region $4.9 billion in economic losses and 234 people died in crashes. Vehicles are a major contributor to air pollution, producing significant amounts of carbon dioxide(c0 2), nitrogen oxides (NO X), carbon monoxide (C0), and other pollutions. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida emits more CO 2 than 45 other states with million metric tons of CO 2 emissions in Fuel consumption cost vehicle owners $14, in i

3 Table E- 1. Mobility Report Card Performance Measure Aspirational Goal Progress ( ) Quantity of Travel Quality of Travel System Utilization Vehicles Vehicle-Miles Traveled (Daily) (1) 12.57% increase since 2011 Vehicle Occupancy (Persons/Vehicle) Maintain or increase No significant change since 2011 Person-Miles Traveled (Daily) (1) 12.63% increase since 2011 Truck-Miles Traveled (Daily) (1) 27.50% increase since 2011 Transit Ridership Increase 6.28% increase since 2011 Aviation Enplanements Maintain or increase Returned to 2011 levels Air Cargo (Tons) Maintain or increase Returned to 2011 levels Ports Average Travel Speed (Peak Hour) Travel Time Reliability (Daily) Tons Moved Maintain or increase 7.24% increase since 2011 Maintain or improve ii 10.41% reduction in speed during peak since 2011 Delay (Daily) Maintain or reduce 4.95 % increase since 2011 Maintain or improve the reliability on major corridors Achieve 95% reliability on Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) facilities (2) Reliability on the major corridors declined or the duration of congestion increased. Urban interstates and expressways achieved only an 89% reliability based on the statewide measure. The average system-wide reliability the SIS was 91.50%. Percent Miles Severely Congested (Peak Hour) Maintain or reduce 3.62% increase since 2011 Percent Travel Severely Congested (Daily) Maintain or reduce 0.71% decrease since 2011 Percent Travel Severely Congested (Peak Hour) Maintain or reduce No increase since 2011 Safety Hours Severely Congested (Daily) Maintain or reduce No perceptible change since 2011 Hours Severely Congested (Yearly) Maintain or reduce 19 hours of severe congestion since 2011 Vehicles Per Lane Mile (Peak Hour) Indicator of utilization for information only Passengers Per Revenue Mile Maintain increase or decrease 11.19% increase in demand per capacity since % increase since 2011 Total Crash Rate (crashes/million vehicle-miles) Reduce 75% increase since 2011 Fatal Crash Rate (crashes/million vehicle-miles) Reduce 44% increase since 2011 Operations Air Quality Identification and Verification (minutes) Maintain or reduce No significant change since 2011 Clearance Times (minutes) Maintain or reduce 6 minutes increase since 2011 Social Cost of Emissions per year ($) Fuel Consumption ($) Maintain or reduce Maintain or reduce 1. Vehicle-miles traveled, etc., were not assigned a benchmark since they are not only an indicator of demand and system throughput. There were strategies in the Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan designed to reduce vehicle-miles traveled, such as transit service expansion. 2. Source: FDOT Sourcebook 2017.

4 On September 12, 2017, Hurricane Irma passed near North Florida. On September 8, seven miles of congestion occurred during the evacuation along I-75 near the Florida/Georgia State Line. The evacuation lasted five days and involved seven million Floridians. Because the evacuation was spread over a longer period, the delays on I-10 and I-95 were less than experienced during Hurricane Matthew in The extent and duration of congestion during the evacuation could have been more severe if residents had not left the area prior to the mandatory evacuation. There was also less congestion during the recovery period, as the returning evacuees arrived primarily on the weekend when background traffic was lower. The returning evacuees also arrived over several days and the demand was more concentrated during Hurricane Matthew. In prior years, BlueTOAD data was also used to estimate mobility performance measures on key congested corridors, however, devices were damaged during and after Hurricane Irma. As a result, insufficient data was available to obtain statistically significant data along the major corridors. In future years, data will be collected during other months (to be determined) for year-over-year comparisons to avoid the hurricane season when devices are more likely to be damaged. iii

5 CONTENTS Executive Summary... i Figures... iv Tables... v Appendices... v Introduction... 1 Quantity of Travel... 2 Vehicles... 2 Vehicle-miles Traveled... 2 Vehicle Occupancy... 3 Person-miles Traveled... 3 Truck-miles Traveled... 4 Transit Ridership... 4 Aviation... 5 Ports... 6 Quality of Travel... 7 Speeds and Delay... 7 Reliability... 8 System Utilization Safety Transportation Systems Management and Operations...15 Evacuation Considerations Conclusion FIGURES Figure 1. Congestion Management Process... 1 Figure 2. Vehicle-miles Traveled and Gross Domestic Product... 2 Figure 3. Air Passengers and Air Cargo... 5 Figure 4. JAXPORT Tonnage and Units... 6 Figure 5. Vehicles per Lane-mile During the P.M. Peak Hour Figure 6. Vehicles-Miles Traveled and Incident Clearance Time...15 iv

6 TABLES Table 1. Comparison of the Quantity of Travel and Economic Indicators... 3 Table 2. Percentage of Occupancy Vehicle Travel... 3 Table 3. Transit Ridership... 4 Table 4. Quality of Travel... 7 Table 5. Summary of Reliability Performance Measures PM Peak Hour, Table 6. System Utilization Measures Table 7. Vehicle Crash History Table 8. Bicycle and Pedestrian Crash History Table 9. Summary of TSM&O Performance Measures Table 10. Summary of Emissions and Fuel Consumption by County Table 11. Mobility Report Card APPENDICES Appendix A. System Performance Measures Appendix B. Statistical Tests of Significance for BlueTOAD Data Appendix C. Reliability Analysis Appendix D. TSM&O Performance Measures v

7 INTRODUCTION This is the fifth Annual Mobility Report prepared by the North Florida TPO. These reports provide valuable travel trend information for the TPO s Congestion Management Process. Figure 1 summarizes this process. Figure 1. Congestion Management Process The development of a Congestion Management Process is required by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). This document is updated annually. The technical methods used to estimate and evaluate performance measures are well-documented in the Congestion Management Process and prior Annual Mobility Reports. Only the key findings and results of the analysis are discussed in this report. Additional detail is provided in the appendices. Unless otherwise indicated, the performance measures, such as vehicle-miles traveled and other statistics, are for the Interstate System, expressways, principal arterials and major collectors only, consistent with the Florida Department of Transportation s (FDOT) Statewide Mobility Performance Measures reporting system. Appendix A includes additional information on the system performance measures. 1

8 QUANTITY OF TRAVEL As our economy continues to grow, we anticipate demand to grow at a similar rate. VEHICLES VEHICLE-MILES TRAVELED Vehicle-miles traveled i is the most direct measurement of total travel. In 2016, vehicle-miles traveled decreased 3.61 percent faster than the growth in the gross domestic product for the region at 5.05 percent in Between 2011 and 2016, the gross domestic product in the Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area increased percent and the daily vehicle-miles traveled increased percent. Figure 2 shows the correlation between gross domestic product and vehicle-miles traveled. The effects of the great recession were still impacting North Florida in 2011 when the regions gross domestic product reached its lowest point. In 2012, the recovery began but vehicle-miles traveled continue to decline through 2012 and has grown since. From , the growth in vehicle-miles traveled slowed compared to the region s gross domestic product which may indicate slower growth in the economy in the future since businesses may not be stocking inventories as aggressively as in prior years. Since 2011, population grew by 7.92 percent which is a major driver in our region s economic growth. Table 1 compares vehicle-miles traveled and economic indicators for gross domestic product and population. Figure 2. Vehicle-miles Traveled and Gross Domestic Product ii 30,000 $75,000 29,500 Vehicle--miles Traveled (thousands) 29,000 28,500 28,000 27,500 27,000 26,500 26,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 Gross Domestic Product (millions) 25,500 25,000 $50, Daily Vehicle-Miles traveled Gross domestic product 2

9 Table 1. Comparison of the Quantity of Travel and Economic Indicators Quantity of Travel Change from % Change Daily Vehicle-Miles Traveled (1,000) 26,081 25,474 26,090 26,706 28,337 29,359 3, % Daily Person-Miles Traveled (1,000 42,646 41,640 36,289 43,702 46,415 48,031 5, % Daily Truck-Miles Traveled (1,000) 1,851 1,880 1,785 2,145 2,264 2, % Population (1,000) 1,322 1,332 1,345 1,370 1,397 1, % Gross Domestic Product (billions) $56,360 $58,519 $62,170 $63,994 $68,038 $71,471 $15, % % Change Vehicle- Miles Traveled -0.87% -2.33% 2.42% 2.36% 6.11% 3.61% % Change Truck- Miles Traveled -0.80% 1.57% -5.05% 20.17% 5.55% 4.24% % Change Population 0.29% 0.71% 1.01% 1.87% 1.95% 2.16% % Change Gross Domestic Product -1.52% 3.83% 6.24% 2.93% 6.32% 5.05% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis website and Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Passenger-miles traveled followed the same trend as vehicle-miles traveled over the period. VEHICLE OCCUPANCY In 2016, the clear majority of North Florida households had access to a vehicle. The breakdown of vehicle availability by household percentage is as follows iii : 4.2% No Vehicle 25.3% One Vehicle 44.8% Two Vehicles 25.6% Three or More Vehicles The percentage of non-single occupancy vehicle (SOV) commuting trips rose but did not significantly change between 2011 (20.3 percent) and 2016 (20.8 percent). The non-sov travel includes carpool, van, public transportation, bicycling and walking iv. Table 2 summarizes the percentage of occupancy vehicle travel from 2011 to Table 2. Percentage of Occupancy Vehicle Travel Vehicle Occupancy Travel Non-SOV Travel 20.30% 20.70% 20.40% 20.30% 20.30% 20.80% SOV Travel 79.70% 79.30% 79.60% 79.70% 79.70% 79.20% Based on the American Travel Survey, an average of 1.64 persons rode in each vehicle in No significant change occurred between 2011 and PERSON-MILES TRAVELED Person-miles traveled are estimated based on the average vehicle-occupancy times the vehicle-miles traveled. The person-miles traveled are summarized in Table 1. 3

10 TRUCK-MILES TRAVELED There has been a strong correlation between the growth in truck-miles traveled and the gross domestic product in North Florida. Truck-miles traveled increased percent from 2011 to 2016 and gross domestic product increased percent. This correlation is not unexpected. As the economy continues to grow truck-miles traveled are anticipated to increase to deliver the goods and services needed to support this growing demand. Truck-miles traveled is generally a leading indicator for this growth. TRANSIT RIDERSHIP Transit use in North Florida continues to be less than 1 percent of all person-miles traveled. From 2011 to 2016, transit ridership in the region increased 6.28 percent although the rate of growth declined between 2015 and Table 3 summarizes the transit ridership data. These declines are believed to be the result of riders who can afford to use on-demand services such as Lyft and Uber opting for these services rather than public transit. Also, more people can afford to own a car now. Table 3. Transit Ridership Transit Ridership Jacksonville Transportation Authority 12,255,414 12,318,052 12,299,409 12,225,824 12,950,091 12,946,999 St. Johns County (Sunshine Bus Company) 202, , , , , ,283 Total 12,458,313 12,555,184 12,553,572 12,485,226 13,243,330 13,241,282 Percent Change from Previous Year 9.15% 0.78% -0.01% -0.54% 6.07% -0.02% Percent Change from % 10.00% 9.99% 9.39% 16.03% 6.28% Source: 2017 Florida Transit Information and Performance Handbook. 4

11 AVIATION The number of passengers and air-cargo shipments (in tons) at the Jacksonville International Airport declined from 2011 to 2013, but have since recovered to above the 2011 levels. Figure 3 provides a summary of the major trends from 2011 through Figure 3. Air Passengers and Air Cargo v 5,700,000 80,000 5,600,000 5,500,000 5,400,000 78,000 76,000 Passengers 5,300,000 5,200,000 74,000 Air Cargo (tons) 5,100,000 72,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 70,000 4,800, Passengers 5,515,165 5,222,125 5,129,212 5,230,988 5,501,889 5,591,886 68,000 Air Cargo (tons) 72,648 74,912 73,061 71,308 72,

12 PORTS JAXPORT has continued to experience substantial growth with increased total tonnage moved in Container (intermodal) freight and automobiles continue to be the strongest growth sectors where traffic has increased by 7.53 and percent respectively since Freight tonnage increased 7.24 percent since Figure 4 summarizes of the major trends from 2011 through Figure 4. JAXPORT Tonnage and Units vi 8,800,000 1,200,000 8,700,000 8,600,000 1,000,000 8,500,000 8,400, ,000 Tonns 8,300, ,000 Units 8,200,000 8,100, ,000 8,000, ,000 7,900,000 7,800, Tons 8,128,013 8,236,977 8,178,855 8,312,165 8,181,888 8,716,805 0 Containers 900, , , , , ,279 Automobiles 520, , , , , ,134 6

13 QUALITY OF TRAVEL Traffic delays increased and cost our region $990 million in economic losses in SPEEDS AND DELAY In 2016, the peak hour average travel speed increased minimally from to mph, but the daily vehicle-hours of delay increased by 14 percent during the p.m. peak hours between 2015 and 2016 vii. Table 4 summarizes the quality of travel measures reported for our region in the statewide mobility performance measures database. Table 4. Quality of Travel Quality of Travel Average Travel Speed (Peak Hour) Delay (Vehicle-hours per day) 36,188 33,540 32,653 33,244 35,612 37,979 Travel Time Reliability (Daily) % Miles Meeting LOS Criteria (Daily) Rural Facilities These delays were used to estimate congestion including lost productivity, vehicle emissions and fuel consumption. Traffic delays cost our region $990 million per year which is equivalent to 1.4 percent of our region s gross domestic product. In 2016, congestion cost North Florida $990 million in economic losses. 7

14 RELIABILITY Reliability on key corridors is generally declining. In addition to the system-wide performance measures, the conditions along key corridors were evaluated to measure congestion and travel reliability. Ideally, reliability is defined as the probability a traveler will arrive on-time based on previous experience. The following examples explain the concept of travel time reliability. I have to be at work at 8 a.m. My trip usually takes about 20 minutes, but I leave ten minutes earlier at 7:30 a.m. to ensure I arrive on time. When traffic is really bad I may be late. I have to pick up my daughter from child care at 6 p.m. or pay a late fee. I expect traffic to be congested during rush hour, so I leave five minutes earlier than I would to make sure I will be on time. In these cases, the traveler allows some variability based on their experience with their trip to ensure they arrive on time. Examples of reliability in other modes include on-time arrival for transit and commercial aviation. Since we currently do not have the data needed to estimate trip-based reliability within the region, we use corridor reliability to better understand how travelers perceive the highway system and how we can better manage facilities using TSM&O strategies, such as express lanes. Reliability was assessed using the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) BlueTOAD data collection system for the following corridors: I-10 from I-295 to I-95 I-95 from south of Race Track Road to University Boulevard and Acosta Expressway to SR 200 (Buccaneer Trail) 8

15 SR 10 (Atlantic Boulevard) from Kingman Avenue to San Pablo Road SR 21 (Blanding Boulevard) from Knightboxx Road to Collins Road SR 200 Buccaneer Trail from I-95 to Amelia Island Parkway US 90 (Beach Boulevard) from University Boulevard to Penman Road US 17 (Roosevelt Boulevard) (new corridor) from CR 220 to Collins Road I-295 is also one of the most congested corridors but is not reported because of construction on major segments of the corridor. For this report, on-time travel times are based on 45 mph to be consistent with FDOT s statewide mobility performance measures. New in this report is the inclusion of reliability performance measures published by FHWA in 23 CFR (d)(4), (Federal Register Notice: 10/14/16, Final Rule: 10/24/16). 1. Level of Travel Time Reliability (LOTTR) is the ratio of the 80 th - percentile travel time and the median travel time. This measure is expressed as a ratio in Table 5 and indicates the variability in travel time for the typical weekday travel times. 2. Level of Truck Time Reliability (TTTR) is the ratio of the 95 th -percentile travel time and the median travel time. This measure is expressed as a ratio in Table 5 and indicates the variability in travel time for the typical weekday travel times. LOTTR is reported based on the 95 th - percentile since FHWA determined that reliability is much more sensitive for trucks than for general traffic. When calculating these FHWA reliability performance measures for a corridor or system the reliability measure will be reported as a percent. Based on the analysis of the corridor-level or system calculation of reliability required by FHWA, reporting of the LOTTR and TTTR for the critical segment in each corridor is used consistent with the on-time reliability adopted by the North Florida TPO. viii Based on these new measures, the decline in reliability differs on the critical segments, but the trends are like estimates provided in prior years using on-time reliability. Reliability in our region is a major concern for the trucking and logistics industries. Additional TSM&O improvements are needed to enhance reliability the key truck corridors. Data was reported each year during the same months - September and October. Only Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays are used in the analysis to represent typical peak period conditions. Evacuations associated with Hurricane Irma from September 7 to 12 and the recovery efforts beginning on September 13 resulted in data that was inappropriate for use in this study. The storm also damaged the equipment that collects the travel times used to estimate the reliability. September is the month that year-over-year comparisons are made and insufficient data was available for this year s report. In future year reports, an alternate month may be selected that is outside of hurricane season (to be determined). Because of the interruptions in the data collection caused by Hurricane Irma, a test of the statistical significance of the data for a 95 percent confidence level with 1-mph standard error was performed. Even with the interruptions from Hurricane Irma, sufficient data was collected to use the BlueTOAD data to calculate the reliability performance measures. Appendix B includes the results of the BlueTOAD data tests of statistical significance of the data. Appendix C summarizes the reliability calculations and includes maps on the speed data. 9

16 Table 5 summarizes the reliability using multiple measures on seven of the eight most congested corridors. The other corridor, I-295 from US 17 to I-95, is not included since it is under construction. The segments where the data collected did not meet the 95 percent confidence level with a standard error of 1-mph are highlighted. Table 5. Summary of Reliability Performance Measures PM Peak Hour, TTTR 2016 LOTTR 2017 TTTR 2017 LOTTR 2016 On-time Reliability 2016 Duration of Congestion (hrs:min) 2017 On-time Reliability 2017 Duration of Congestion (hrs:min) Facility I-10 Eastbound 93% 96% % 3: Westbound 93% 96% % 4: I-95 Northbound 92% 95% 93% 96% 93% 2:45 80% 5:00 Southbound 93% 96% 93% 96% 92% 2:15 88% 2:30 SR 10 Atlantic Boulevard* Eastbound 82% 89% 81% 89% 90% :15 32% 18:00 Westbound 80% 88% 80% 85% 96% 1:15 9% 22:45 SR 21 Blanding Boulevard* Northbound 76% 84% 75% 82% 86% :15 25% 17:45 Southbound 72% 85% 80% 84% 83% 4:30 25% 17:45 SR 200 Buccaneer Trail* Eastbound 88% 93% 87% 90% 90% :15 38% 14:30 Westbound 88% 93% 84% 88% 95% 1:00 36% 14:75 US 17 Roosevelt Boulevard* Northbound 85% 91% 85% 89% 97% :45 17% 20:00 Southbound 82% 90% 84% 87% 68% 8:15 27% 17:30 US 90 Beach Boulevard* Eastbound 79% 87% 77% 83% 97% :15 26% 16:45 Westbound 78% 86% 84% 87% 97% :15 39% 13:30 (1) - means insufficient data to report. (2) * Some of the BlueTOAD data was not available in some corridors in (3) The TTTR and LOTTR are reported for the critical segment during the peak hour. The non-roundup data was used to calculate this data. 10

17 SYSTEM UTILIZATION The system s capacity is being utilized by more travelers. We need to continue investing in new capacity and connectors. System utilization measures show the changing conditions at the facility level. From 2011 to 2016, more vehicles per lane-mile used the system and the number of hours experiencing severe congestion increased. These trends are consistent with the other measures of the quality and quantity of travel. An additional 127 lane-miles of the system experienced severe congestion of Level of Service (LOS) E or F during the peak hours. Severe congestion decreased by 19 hours from 2011 to The average peak hour duration remained consistent from 2010 to This calculation includes many uncongested facilities, so this measure is not expected to change very much from year to year. An average of 67 additional vehicles-per-lane mile used the system in 2016 compared to Table 6 summarizes the system utilization measures. Table 6. System Utilization Measures System Utilization % Miles Severely Congested (peak hour) % Travel Severely Congested (daily) % Travel Severely Congested (peak hour) Hours Severely Congested (daily) Hours Severely Congested (per year) Vehicles per Lane-Mile (peak hour) Passengers per Revenue -Mile In 2016, the vehicle-miles traveled increased faster than our ability to add new capacity. The vehicles per lane-mile utilized in the peak hour increased as a result. The system s capacity is being consumed by more travelers. Continued investment to construct new capacity and new connectors is needed to meet these needs. Figure 5 shows the vehicles per lane-mile during the p.m. peak. 11

18 Figure 5. Vehicles per Lane-mile During the P.M. Peak Hour Vehicles per lane-mile (Peak Hour) % increase from 2015 to Year 12

19 SAFETY In 2016, vehicle crashes cost our region $4.9 billion in economic losses and 234 people died in vehicle crashes. Traffic safety will continue to be a challenge for our region with 31,744 crashes and 234 fatalities in This represents eight percent of Florida s crashes and seven percent of fatalities. Table 7 summarizes the crash history for The economic costs to our region due to crashes are $4.9 billion per year ix. Drug and/or alcohol involvement was noted in 597 crashes and 155 fatalities x. In Dangerous by Design 2014 published by Smart Growth America and the National Complete Street Coalition, the Jacksonville metropolitan area is ranked third most dangerous for pedestrians. In this study pedestrian deaths are evaluated based on total population and percent of people who walk to work. The latter is reported in the American Community Survey published by the U.S. Census. According to the Bike Walk Alliance, of the 68 largest cities in the nation, Jacksonville is the least safe city in the nation for bicyclists and pedestrian commuters. xi Their ranking considers the number of fatalities per 100,000 walking and cycling commuters. However, these statistics do not account for the 105 million visitors to our state annually, including the six million who visit St. Augustine. Table 8 summarizes pedestrian and bicycle crashes and fatalities. Between 2011 and 2016, crashes involving a pedestrian increased from 490 to 597, a 22 percent increase. Bicycle crashes increased from 341 to 397, a 16 percent increase over the same period. Fatalities increased from 45 (37 pedestrians and 8 bicyclists) to 65 (58 pedestrians and 7 bicyclists), an 81 percent increase. FDOT and our local agencies include bicycle and pedestrian safety as a primary consideration in designing highways and streets. Infrastructure design alone cannot prevent bicycle and pedestrian crashes. In a recent study completed by FDOT District 2, only 2.3 percent of the pedestrian crashes that occurred within the Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties occurred at intersections. The remaining 97.2 percent occurred in mid-block areas where crosswalks are not provided. Ultimately, the safety of everyone on or near our roadways is dependent upon personal responsibility and compliance with all traffic laws. External distractions such as cell phones and music should also be put away or turned down so both pedestrians and drivers remain focused on traffic and traffic signals. New technologies could emerge that will assist bicyclists, pedestrians and drivers to better identify conflicts and reduce crashes. The North Florida TPO continues to address these issues through complete streets planning, educational campaigns and awareness events such as the Safe Streets Summit. In 2016, vehicle crashes cost North Florida $4.9 billion in economic losses. 13

20 Table 7. Vehicle Crash History Vehicles % Change ( ) County Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Clay 1, , , , , , % 73% Duval 12, , , , , , % 73% Nassau , , % 83% St. Johns 1, , , , , , % 11% Total 16, , , , , , % 63% Rate (1) % 44% Table 8. Bicycle and Pedestrian Crash History Pedestrians % Change ( ) County Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Clay % 25% Duval % 105% Nassau % -20% St. Johns % 0% Total % 57% Bicycles % Change ( ) County Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Total Fatal Clay % - Duval % 20% Nassau % - St. Johns % -50% Total % -.13% Sources: Florida Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, Traffic Crash Facts: Annual Report Safety and Motor Vehicles, Traffic Crash Facts: Annual Report 2016 Crashes per million vehicle-miles traveled (all public roads) 14

21 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS Increased demand and congestion limited the ability of responders to restore traffic conditions. Although there have been significant increases in travel demand, congestion and crashes, public agencies continued to work diligently to respond to incidents. In 2016, the average time for the FDOT to verify and respond to incidents did not change significantly from prior years. However, increased demand and congestion limited the ability of responders to restore traffic conditions. Several major construction projects are underway which contribute to the longer clearance times. Figure 6 summarizes the relationship between vehicle-miles traveled and incident clearance time. Figure 6. Vehicles-Miles Traveled and Incident Clearance Time 30,000 29, Vehicle-Miles Traveled (Thousands) 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24, Clearance Duration (Minutes) 23, Daily Vehicle-Miles traveled Incident Clearance Duration 15

22 The following table summarizes the TSM&O performance measures associated with incident response, verification and clearance times reported data was not available for this report. Table 9. Summary of TSM&O Performance Measures Performance Measure Events 2,393 2,323 2,003 2,308 2,978 3,609 Verification Duration (min) Response Duration (min) Open Roads Duration (min) Departure Duration (min) Roadway Clearance Duration (min) Incident Clearance Duration (min) The most common incidents the FDOT responds to are disabled vehicles (32 percent) and crashes (28 percent). Additional information is provided in Appendix D. 16

23 AIR QUALITY In 2016, the total carbon dioxide emission fuel used in the U.S. was 5,170 million metric tons. Although carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions decreased 1.7 percent since 2015 xii, air pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems in the United States. Poor air quality can cause serious health problems. Vehicles are a major contributor to air pollution, as significant producers of C0 2, nitrogen oxides (NO X), carbon monoxide (C0), and other pollutions. According to the U.S Energy Information Administration, the total carbon dioxide emissions in Florida were million metric tons xiii in Table 10 summarizes the cost of emission and fuel consumption by county in

24 Table 10. Summary of Emissions and Fuel Consumption by County VOC Emission Factor VOC Cost VOC N0x Emission Factor NOx Cost NOx Delay per CO2 Emission Fuel County Veh-Mile Days/yr. Factor Cost Consumption CO2 CO2 hrs. days (g/hr.) ($/Ton) ($) (g/hr.) ($/Ton) ($) (g/hr.) ($/Ton) ($) ($000?) Clay 2, ,389 $47.00 $23, $1, $7, $7, $10, $ Duval 33, ,389 $47.00 $326, $1, $97, $7, $150, $12, Nassau ,389 $47.00 $4, $1, $1, $7, $2, $ St. Johns 1, ,389 $47.00 $17, $1, $5, $7, $7, $ Total 38, ,556 $ $372, $7, $110, $28, $171, $14, days per year is used to convert the typical weekday to annual values. 18

25 EVACUATION CONSIDERATIONS Early evacuation reduced congestion during Hurricane Irma. North Florida was impacted by Hurricane Irma September 12, Mandatory evacuations were initiated on Friday September 8, Overall, evacuations ran smoothly without implementing contraflow lanes. Evacuation impacts were analyzed using Regional Integrated Transportation Information System (RITIS) data on I-10, I-95, I-75, I-295 West Beltway and I-295 East Beltway. To understand the impact of the evacuations increasing demand on key corridors, an analysis of the differences in congestion compared to the average weekday was performed and the differences were analyzed to understand the impact of the additional demand on the key corridors. An analysis of evacuees behaviors was performed to determine evacuation and return timing, their impact on travel times and to better understand the periods where TSM&O strategies may be needed to support evacuations in the future. The following summarizes the major findings: (1) At 11 p.m. September 7, 2017 when the hurricane warning was issued, more than half of the evacuees had already departed the region. Most evacuees in St. Johns and Nassau counties departed before the evacuation orders were issued at 9:30 a.m. September 8, The percentage of evacuees who departed before the evacuation warnings were issued on each corridor is summarized below: 65 percent on I percent on I percent on I percent on I-295 West Beltway 66 percent on I-295 East Beltway Many evacuees left the area based on the potential impacts of the hurricane. The early evacuations were positive because the demand was spread over a longer period and allowed more people to evacuate safely and with less delay. Communication with the National Weather Service is critical for early evacuations, and to not overwhelm the transportation network and place evacuees at further risk. (2) Of the corridors evaluated, I-75 was impacted the most during the evacuation. Major slowdowns occurred for approximately 4 miles along I-75 between CR 143/Exit 467 and the Florida/Georgia State Line beginning at 7 a.m. concurrent with the normal traffic. The slowdown continued building through the afternoon causing further traffic delays until 11 p.m. September 8, The average speed along I-75 at the Florida/Georgia State Line from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. was approximately 5.8 mph. The average speed between 7 a.m. and 11 p.m. was approximately 7 mph. The travel time index (which describes the variability in travel times), also continued to increase, peaking from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. Additional TSM&O strategies are needed to manage traffic flow; identify, verify, respond to and clear incidents; and provide travelers information on travel times, delays and alternate route availability. Fortunately, most evacuees left the area prior to the formal evacuation orders being issued. (3) During the recovery from the hurricane on September 13, adverse effects were recorded on southbound I-75. The greatest slowdowns recorded were between 1 p.m. and 6 p.m. around US 41/US 441, where the average speed was approximately 22 mph. 19

26 Both evacuation and recovery periods are important when evaluating TSM&O strategies associated with hurricanes or other disasters. Average speed and queue lengths on I-75 southbound during recovery were comparable to the evacuation. Communicating with media to spread out the period for evacuees returning home is just as important as managing the evacuation period. 20

27 CONCLUSION Our residents are driving more, using transit more and consuming more goods. This growth in demand corresponds to the growth in the region s economy, but the growth is not without tradeoffs. Congestion and the reliability of travel in our region is getting worse. The data presented in this is based on regional trends from 2011 to This report summarizes the quantity, quality and reliability of travel in Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. These measures were established in the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) s Congestion Management Process in 2013 and adopted in the TPO s Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan in This report also includes the performance measures adopted by the Federal Highway Administration (FWHA) for metropolitan planning. Table 11 summarizes the 2016 results for mobility performance measures and benchmarks adopted in the Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan. The following summarizes the key results and findings: We anticipate mobility demand to grow at the same rate as the local economy. Automobile traffic increased by 4.95 percent in The number of aviation passengers and amount of freight moving through the port increased from 2011 to Traffic delays increased and average speed across the network fell by 1 mph. Traffic delays cost our region $990 million in The system s capacity is being consumed by more travelers. The vehicles-per-lane-mile on the roadway system increased 2.19 percent from 2015 to Continued investment in constructing new capacity and new connectors is needed to meet these needs. The estimated system reliability for Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) facilities is declining and is less than the 95 percent system reliability goal for SIS facilities. Either the reliability declined or the duration of congestion increased on the seven most congested corridors in the region indicating the peak has spread beyond the 5-6 p.m. peak hour. Increases in demand and congestion make it harder to get traffic flowing after major back-ups. As recurring congestion increases, additional investments are needed in Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSM&O) strategies to ensure we get the most from our system. About 80 percent of travel is single-occupancy vehicle trips, which remained unchanged from prior years. In North Florida, the average vehicle occupancy in 2016 was 1.64 persons-pervehicle. In 2016, vehicle crashes cost our region $4.9 billion in economic losses and 234 people died in crashes. Vehicles are a major contributor to air pollution, producing significant amounts of carbon dioxide(c0 2), nitrogen oxides (NO X), carbon monoxide (C0), and other pollutions. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida emits more CO 2 than 45 other states with million metric tons of CO 2 emissions in Fuel consumption cost vehicle owners $14, in On September 12, 2017, Hurricane Irma passed near North Florida. On September 8, seven miles of congestion occurred during the evacuation along I-75 near the Florida/Georgia State Line. The evacuation lasted five days and involved seven million Floridians. Because the evacuation was spread over a longer period, the delays on I-10 and I-95 were less than experienced during Hurricane Matthew in The extent and duration of congestion during the evacuation could have been more severe if residents had not left the area prior to the mandatory evacuation. There was also less congestion during the recovery period as the returning evacuees arrived primarily on the weekend when background traffic was lower. The returning evacuees also arrived over several days versus the more concentrated demand during Hurricane Matthew. 21

28 Table 11. Mobility Report Card Performance Measure Aspirational Goal Progress ( ) Quantity of Travel Quality of Travel System Utilization Vehicles Vehicle-Miles Traveled (Daily) (1) 12.57% increase since 2011 Vehicle Occupancy (Persons/Vehicle) Maintain or increase No significant change since 2011 Person-Miles Traveled (Daily) (1) 12.63% increase since 2011 Truck-Miles Traveled (Daily) (1) 27.50% increase since 2011 Transit Ridership Increase 6.28% increase since 2011 Aviation Enplanements Maintain or increase Returned to 2011 levels Air Cargo (Tons) Maintain or increase Returned to 2011 levels Ports Average Travel Speed (Peak Hour) Travel Time Reliability (Daily) Tons Moved Maintain or increase 7.24% increase since 2011 Maintain or improve 10.41% reduction in speed during peak since 2011 Delay (Daily) Maintain or reduce 4.95 % increase since 2011 Maintain or improve the reliability on major corridors Achieve 95% reliability on Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) facilities (2) Reliability on the major corridors declined or the duration of congestion increased. Urban interstates and expressways achieved only an 89% reliability based on the statewide measure. The average system-wide reliability the SIS was 91.50%. Percent Miles Severely Congested (Peak Hour) Maintain or reduce 3.62% increase since 2011 Percent Travel Severely Congested (Daily) Maintain or reduce 0.71% decrease since 2011 Percent Travel Severely Congested (Peak Hour) Maintain or reduce No increase since 2011 Safety Hours Severely Congested (Daily) Maintain or reduce No perceptible change since 2011 Hours Severely Congested (Yearly) Maintain or reduce 19 hours of severe congestion since 2011 Vehicles Per Lane Mile (Peak Hour) Indicator of utilization for information only Passengers Per Revenue Mile Maintain increase or decrease 11.19% increase in demand per capacity since % increase since 2011 Total Crash Rate (crashes/million vehicle-miles) Reduce 75% increase since 2011 Fatal Crash Rate (crashes/million vehicle-miles) Reduce 44% increase since 2011 Operations Air Quality Identification and Verification (minutes) Maintain or reduce No significant change since 2011 Clearance Times (minutes) Maintain or reduce 6 minutes increase since 2011 Social Cost of Emissions per year ($) Fuel Consumption ($) Maintain or reduce Maintain or reduce 1. Vehicle-miles traveled, etc., were not assigned a benchmark since they are not only an indicator of demand and system throughput. There were strategies in the Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan designed to reduce vehicle-miles traveled, such as transit service expansion. Source: FDOT Sourcebook

29 In prior years, BlueTOAD data was also used to estimate mobility performance measures on key congested corridors, however, devices were damaged during and after Hurricane Irma. As a result, insufficient data was available to obtain statistically significant data along the major corridors. In future years, data will be collected during other months (to be determined) for year-over-year comparisons to avoid the hurricane season when devices are more likely to be damaged. 23

30 ENDNOTES i Within this report vehicle-miles traveled include only the Interstate System, principal arterials and major collectors to provide consistency with the statewide mobility performance measures reporting. ii This data was updated from the 2011 report to provide gross domestic product for the Jacksonville Metropolitan Area vs. Florida gross domestic product values. The data for vehicle-miles traveled was also updated for data prior to 2014 to reflect a consistent reporting of facility-type and area-types reported in the statewide Mobility Performance Program estimating tools. iii 02&prodType=table iv page 26 v Source; Jacksonville Aviation Authority vi Source: No data updated. vii page 31 viii The FHWA reliability performance measure when evaluating a corridor is expressed as a percentage using the formula for either the LOTTR or the TTTR. TTTTTTTTTTTT TTTTTTTT RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR (%) = MMMMMM RRRRRRRRRR xx LLLLLLLLLLh oooo SSSSSSSSSSSSSS nn 1 SSSSSSSSSSSSSS RRRRRRRRRR xx LLLLLLLLLLh Using this method results in some counterintuitive results. Based on the variability in the travel time data, the ratio for the LOTTR on one segment with a different length may be greater than the TTTR ratio on another segment. When this occurs (and dependent on the length of the segment) the LOTTR ratio and LOTTR expressed as a percent may be worse than the TTTR. This is counterintuitive since the TTTR is based on a 95 th percentile speed vs. the 80 th percentile travel times and the expectation is that the TTTR would always be worse than the LOTTR. When expressing LOTTR and TTTR for corridors with only one segment, the LOTTR and TTTR will always be expressed as 100% using this approach. In those cases, we reported the percent of LOTTR and TTTR as the inverse of the ratio. Based on the counterintuitive results of the LOTTR and TTTR, on-time arrival reliability is during the pm peak hour (5:00 to 6:00) is the preferred method of the North Florida TPO. FDOT Central Office is producing the system reports for the LOTTR and TTTR required by FHWA for the periods required in 23 CFR (d)(4), which may or may not have Performance Measures (Federal Register Notice:10/14/16, Final Rule: 10/24/16). ix Based on 2017 data for the average cost per crash of $155,695 (FDOT Plans Preparation Manual Table ). x xi xii xiii 24