The only road that leads Chinese manufacturing to success Technological Innovation + Industry 3.0/4.0

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1 Outline Research and thinking on hi-tech clusters Past 30 years & next 30 years Cast studies: Silicon Valley, MIT, Israel, Taiwan Shenzhen-Hong Kong Bay Area: Next Silicon Valley, new opportunities The only road that leads Chinese manufacturing to success Technological Innovation + Industry 3.0/4.0 Status quo of the manufacturing industry a corporate survey with the largest samples A rising industry A few cases: Dreams, studies & startups New advantages for China s technological innovation

2 3. A New Era in Robotics A rising industry: Robot Age the US Google Schaft Redwood Robotics Meka Robotics Boston Dynamics Amazon Industrial Bot & Dolly Holomni Google Self-driving Car Qualcomm Obama: The rise of US manufacturing supported by smart robotic technologies The Economist: March 2014 A Roadmap for Robotics From Internet to Robotics (2013 Edition) Manufacturing Medical Healthcare Service, Space and Defense 2

3 Core Technologies 1. Driving -Electric Machines (Mitsubishi, Yaskawa, Panasonic) CCD AC servo motor Direct Drive motor (Servotronics etc.) 6.System software -RTOS -ROS, etc. 2.Tranmission -RV(Nabtesco) -Harmonic wave (Japan HD, Greenland Suzhou) Other gear reducer - bearing, screw, guide rail 7.Communication -bussing technology -wireless communication (DJI) Motion Control Technology 3.Contorl -Controller (Googol, Keba, B&R) -Human- computer interface 8.Chip -Control chips (Pinko) -Image chips -Transmission chips(pinko) 4.Remote Sensor -Force sensor -Encoder (straight, revolving) -IMU/Gyroscope DJI -GPS -Laser radar 9.Structuring -Modeling(Li Qun) -Structural design -Emulation tech 5.Visual -CMOS/CCD -Lence/camera (DJI) -Signal treatment, compressed transmission 10.Motor -Battery management -Charging tech 1.Robot machines Machine tool E-manufacturing Testing tools Textile equipment 2.Industry robots Industrial design and emulation 3.Healthcare/medical robots) Home Surgery Recovery 4.Autonomous vehicles (navigation and wheel tech) Google AGV Mobile manipulator 5.Consumer robotics UAV UUV Water-surface robot System integration tooling, fixture crafting, emulation 3

4 Motion control Equipment making Rising of a country Manufacturing development and prosperity (30 50 years) Development and application of the equipment industry (30-50 years) Core technology in equipment making: talents and industry (30-50 years) years UK ( , 40 yrs) Steam engine ( ) train (1825) Great Eastern (1858) US: AC Motor (1888) Airplane (1903) CNC Machine tools (1947) first industrial robot (1961) Japan: Taking the lead in developing its motion control industry (YASKAWA, Fanuc)

5 P1: Smart Robots for Manufacturing Automation Current State: China industrial robot market: : Growth 30% 05-12: Growth 25%

6 2. Insights into Data on Industrial Robot Market in China & Key Factors Key Factors Labor 因素 6: 工业机器人成本将以每年 4% 减少 2012 Manufacturing growth: RMB15.6 trillion RMB: US$ = 6.2:1 Resource Cost Productivit y 120 million RMB50,000/year (US$559/month) US: US$3600/month (1:6.44) Robot Resource Cost Productivity 90,000 SCARA/system RMB60K/120K (5-month salary) 6-DoF (3kg) RMB120K/240K (1.2-year salary) 2022 Manufacturing growth: RMB29 trillion RMB: US$ = 5:1 100 million RMB200,000/year (US$3371/month) US: US$4388/month (1:1.3) million SCARA/system RMB42/84K (2.5-month salary) 6-DoF (3kg) RMB84K/168K (5-month salary) RMB13.5T 22 mil RMB150K/year Conclusion: 1. The market demand for industrial robot is rigid and ongoing 2. The development of industrial robot will be one of the greatest revolutions in China s history of manufacturing, with profound implications 3. China is arriving at the critical mass of industrial robotics

7 Industry System 3. Dances with Wolves: Strengths & Weakness in Local Industrial Robotics Industry User Industry A Industry B Industry C System integrator Body plant Parts & components manufacturers Motor Decele rator Control ler Sensor Softwa re Universities/ institutes

8 3. Dances with Wolves: Strengths & Weakness in Local Industrial Robotics Industry Dancing with the Wolves: Strengths & Weakness of Domestic Industrial Robotics Industry 1. Huge gap between university research and industry needs in terms of knowledge and research interests 2. The core parts and components industry is at its early stage and needs time to grow 3. High cost structure in body plants, lack of competitive advantage 4. Insufficient system integrators in terms of quality & experience. E.g. For example, there were 100 system integrators working with ADEP Therefore, 20+20=40 body plants require 4,000-8,000 integrators, compared to 1,000 integrators at present 5. Though users face enormous pressure in productivity, labor and competition, they still have their concerns in potential risks brought by new technologies. Manufacturing cost in 2009: RMB320K Small-size production cost in 2012: RMB254K Yaskawa s manufacturing cost: RMB168K Sold at RMB220-

9 Our Opportunities Car industry: Output: 1,60Mil (Global: 70Mil) Workers:3-5mil Robot coverage:141/10k workers (Japan: 1450) Requirements: Precision: >100 micron Capacity:Large Position control Major Suppliers: ABB, KUKA, Yaskawa, FANUC 3C Industry: Workers: 2,00mil Robot coverage : 11/10k worker Annual output Cellphone: 2bil Computers: 5bil Consumer electronics:? Requirements: Precision: <30 micron Flexibility, smart, nimble 2-3week cycle adaptibility Light, safe, low cost Major suppliers:????