Globalization Powertrains IT

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1 Inside China: Understanding China s Current and Future Automotive Industry UMTRI Automotive Futures Group Focus on the Future UM Automotive Research Conferences WELCOME! Bruce M. Belzowski University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Managing Director-Automotive Futures bbl@umich.edu

2 Automotive Futures University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Funding Affiliate Program Research Conferences Supporting Members Research Partners Globalization Powertrains IT 5 Annual Conferences

3 Automotive Futures Affiliate Program Affiliate Members Argonne National Labs BorgWarner Inc. Bosch Corporation Delphi Corporation Denso Corporation FCA LLC Ford Motor Company Valeo Corporation

4 Automotive Futures Research Partners Research Partners IT Organizations HP IBM Oracle Corporation Siemens-PLM OEMs FCA LLC Ford Motor Company General Motors Nissan Tech Center Toyota Tech Center Government/NGOs Argonne National Labs CALSTART CARB Energy Foundation Federal Motor Carrier The Hewlett Foundation ICCT NRDC Michigan DOT NREL NSF Government/NGOs Union of Concerned Scientists US Army-TARDEC US DOT US EPA US DOE

5 Suppliers BASF BorgWarner Bosch Chevron Continental Denso Dana Delphi Dow Eaton JATCO Automotive Futures Research Partners Research Partners Suppliers JCI Lear Magna Means Michelin Peterson Spring TRW Yazaki Visteon Valeo Consultants AT Kearney AVL FEV McKinsey Ricardo Roland Berger

6 Automotive Futures Current Research Programs Powertrains Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century Survey (A collaboration with SAE) Survey results have been distributed to Affiliates Total Cost of Ownership: Comparing Diesel and Gas Vehicles (Bosch) Based on resale value of 30K vehicles sold through Mannheim auctions in 2012 / 2013 Report available

7 Automotive Futures Current Research Programs ITS The Future of Automotive Safety Sensors (Sponsor: NHTSA) In Progress Comprehensive V2X Retrofit Study of Heavy Trucks (Sponsor: NHTSA) In Progress Integrated Mobile Observations: Micro-level weather reporting using cell phones in MDOT vehicles (Sponsor: MDOT and FHWA) Report available.

8 Automotive Futures Current Research Programs ITS Stuck in Traffic: Analyzing Real Time Traffic Capabilities of Personal Navigation Devices and Traffic Phone Applications Final report available Roadway Evaluation Project: Measuring road roughness via accelerometers in cell phones mounted in MDOT vehicles Final report available

9 ITS Automotive Futures Current Research Programs Deploying Safety Technologies in Commercial Vehicles Familiarity and penetration currently and in the future of: Forward Collision Warning / Lane Departure Warning / Blind Spot Detection / ESC / Vehicle Communications Final report available (Sponsor: ITS America)

10 Automotive Futures Researchers Student Researchers: Alexa Kershenheiter: Senior, Mechanical Engineering Working on study of the effects of autonomous vehicles on society, the economy, and the individual study Camille Cu, Senior, Economics Chinese electric vehicle industry: subsidies Aaron Dalal, Sophomore, Business UM Automotive Industry Student Survey Michael Ross, Sophomore, Aerospace Engineering UM Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century Survey Brian Roche, Freshman, Political Science UMTRI Automotive Futures Focus on the Future Conferences

11 Upcoming UMTRI-AF Conferences February 14, 2018: Marketing New Powertrain Technologies. This conference will review what manufacturers have done to promote new powertrain technologies over the past 10 years, and also look at what will be the future trends for marketing these technologies over the next decade.] April 18, 2018: New Mobility Conference. Our 4 th annual New Mobility conference will investigate mobility as a service transportation business models that support sustainability as well as transport. July 18, 2018: Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century: Our 10 th annual conference that focuses on major issues related to the future powertrains. This conference is also the place to see the results of our annual Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century expert survey that estimates powertrain technology penetration for 2020 and 2025.

12 Conference Presenters/Schedule 9am Bruce Belzowski, Managing Director, Automotive Futures, UM Transportation Research Institute Ken DeWoskin, Senior Advisor, Chinese Services Group, Deloitte Consulting Ken DeWoskin Q&A Jun Ma, Vice Dean for the Automotive College at Tongji University Jun Ma Q&A Break (20 minutes) Changan CS55 on display outside

13 Conference Presenters/Schedule Bruce Belzowski, Managing Director, UMTRI Automotive Futures Michael Andrews, HMI Team Lead, Intelligent and Connected Vehicle Group, Changan US R&D Center Bruce Belzowski, Managing Director, UMTRI Automotive Futures Harold Sun, Technical Director, Fitech Conference Q&A 1:30pm 2:00pm Lunch Adjourn

14 Post Conference Mailing Attendees: Link to presentations Affiliates: Link to presentations sent to all company representatives in our database Document and link to a review of highlights from the conference

15 Housekeeping Restrooms Wireless Cell Phones: Silent Speaker Bios Question Cards

16 Conference Questions Which companies are the leaders in sales? How are the independent Chinese manufacturers faring? What can the multinational auto industry expect from China after the recent National Party Congress? Is there any possibility of allowing multinationals to exit their joint venture relationships? How is China preparing for autonomous vehicles?

17 Conference Questions What kind of infrastructure projects are focused on autonomous vehicles? How have China s NEV policies changed? How have the changes affected sales? How are multinational companies responding to the aggressive goals set for NEVs? What are Chinese manufacturers doing to meet the challenges of autonomy?

18 Conference Questions How quickly can China s manufacturers come to the US with competitive vehicles? How have China s vehicles emissions goals changed? How far along are the companies in meeting the China VI emissions goals?

19 China s Auto Industry By the Numbers

20 China Total Sales of New Vehicles 30,000,000 28,028,175 25,000,000 20,000,000 18,061,936 18,505,114 19,306,435 21,984,079 23,499,001 24,597,583 20,224,500 15,000,000 10,000,000 9,390,000 13,640,000 5,000, (Jan- Sep) Sources: OICA Sales Statistics and MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

21 Total China Passenger Car and Light Truck Vehicle Production 30,000, ,110,880 25,000, ,000, ,061,900 18,505,100 19,306,400 21,984,100 23,491,893 24,503,326 20,349,200 15,000, ,000, ,000, (Jan-Sep) Sources: 2016 Ward s Automotive Yearbook and MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

22 2016 Top Ten Vehicle Production ,144,335 1,968,571 1,919,069 1,876,256 Number of Sales ,445,395 1,142,000 1,136,198 1,094, , , Shanghai GM Wuling Shanghai VW FAW Volkswagen Shanghai GM Changan Beijing Hyundai Dongfeng Nissan Great Wall Dongfeng Changan Ford Source: 2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

23 2015 to 2016 Comparison of Top Ten Vehicle Production Shanghai GM Wuling Shanghai VW FAW Volkswagen Shanghai GM Changan Beijing Hyundai Dongfeng Nissan Great Wall Dongfeng Chana Ford

24 2014 through 2016 Comparison of Top Ten Vehicle Production Shanghai GM Wuling Shanghai VW FAW Volkswagen Shanghai GM Changan Beijing Hyundai Dongfeng Nissan Great Wall Dongfeng Changan Ford Source: 2016/2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbooks

25 2016 Top Foreign Joint Venture Production 4,500,000 4,000,000 4,020,591 3,887,640 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,789,029 1,500,000 1,000,000 1,198,706 1,136,198 1,063, , ,000 0 GM VW Hyundai & Kia 335, , , , , ,826 Honda Nissan Toyota Ford Mercedes BMW Mazda Fiat Chrysler Suzuki Mitsubishi Source: 2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

26 2014 to 2016 Comparison of Foreign Top Joint Venture Production GM VW Hyundai & Kia Nissan Toyota Honda Ford Mercedes BMW Mazda Fiat Chrysler Suzuki Mitsubishi Source: 2016/2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

27 2016 Chinese Own Brands Production (Not including Joint Ventures) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,445,395 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,257 0 Changan Dongfeng Beijing AIC Guangzhou AC FAW Shanghai AIC Source: 2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

28 2014 to 2016 Comparison of Chinese Own Brands Production (Not including Joint Ventures) Changan Dongfeng Beijing AIC Guangzhou AC FAW Shanghai AIC Source: 2016/2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

29 2016 Top Chinese Independent Manufacturer Production (Non-Joint Venture Companies) 1,200,000 1,000,000 1,094, , , , , , , , , ,000 0 Great Wall Geely Chery Jianghuai BYD JMC Source: 2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

30 2014 to 2016 Comparison of Top Chinese Independent Manufacturer Production (Non-Joint Venture Companies) Great Wall Geely Chery Jianghuai BYD JMC Source: 2016/2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

31 Number of Models by Company (Chinese Own Brands Not Including Joint Ventures) Changan Dongfeng Beijing AIC FAW Guangzhou AC Shanghai AIC Sedans, Hatchbacks SUVs, MPVs, Microvans, Pickups Source: ChinaAutoWeb

32 2016 Number of Models by Company (Independent Companies) Great Wall Geely Jianghuai Chery BYD JMC Foton 11 Source: ChinaAutoWeb Sedans, Hatchbacks SUVs, MPV's, Microvans, Pickups

33 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Production By Company (Chinese Own Brands Not Including Joint Ventures) Changan Dongfeng Beijing AIC FAW Guangzhou AC Shanghai AIC Passenger Cars Light Trucks Medium/Heavy Trucks Buses Source: 2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

34 2016 Production By Company (Independent Companies) 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Great Wall Geely Jianghuai Chery BYD JMC Foton Passenger Cars Light Trucks Medium/Heavy Trucks Buses Source: 2017 Ward s Automotive Yearbook

35 Consumer Preferences in China: Information Sources

36 Consumer Preferences in China: Used Cars

37 Consumer Preferences in China: Ownership Trends

38 Inside China: Understanding China s Current and Future Automotive Industry UMTRI Automotive Futures Group Focus on the Future UM Automotive Research Conferences WELCOME! The Link to Presentations Will Be ed This Weekend