AFRICAN REFINING IN A GROWING

Transcription

1 AFRICAN REFINING IN A GROWING ENVIRONMENT TOTAL VIEW ARA week 2015 Mathieu Soulas Vice President Logistic & Supply Africa Middle East Marketing & Services

2 REFINING ENVIRONMENT 2

3 A GLOBAL REFINING OVERCAPACITY WITH REFINING CAPACITY GROWTH PULLED BY MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA Worldwide capacity additions Mb/d Worldwide refining i overcapacity (at 85% operating rates) Mb/d Overcapacity increased by 2 Mb/d 90 if no actions Rest of World Middle East 85 Existing overcapacity Asia '08 ' '10 ' '12 ' '14 ' '16 ' '18 demand Demand expressed in refining refining treatement treatment Ref. Refining Capacity capacity at 85% operating 85% operating rate rate Actions : Reduction of operating rates Projects delayed or cancelled Capacity closures 3

4 REFINING: INCREASING US COMPETITION WITH EMERGENCE OF NON CONVENTIONAL RESSOURCES US capacities and operating rates (Mb/d) 20 refining capacity refining treatment operating rate 100% 96% 92% $/mmbtu Natural Gas EU (NBP) 14 88% 8 6 Henry Hub 12 84% 4 2 Ethane US % Growth domestic production More competitive US refining = 1.5 Mb/d additional production since 2011 Logistical constraints + exportation ban Advantaged crude Support margin Throughput increase 4

5 EVEN WITH WORLDWIDE RATIONALIZATION IN OECD COUNTRIES EUROPE (4.6% DECREASE VS 2007). Shutdowns/ Conversion (1) GB Petroplus Teesside 120 kbd 2009 (2) France Total Flandres 140 kbd 2010 (3) France Total Normandie 140 kbd 2010 (4) Roumanie OMV Arpechim 65 kbd 2010 (5) Allemagne COP/HESTYA Wilhelmshaven 260 kbd 2011 (6) France Petroplus Reichstett 80 kbd (7) Italie Tamoil Cremone 90 kbd 2011 Mb/j (8) Italie ENI Porto Marghera 70 kbd 2012 (9) GB Petroplus Coryton 220 kbd 2012 (10) Italie TotalErg Rome 90 kbd 2012 (11) GB ExxonMobil Fawley 80 kbd 2012 (12) France Petroplus Petit Couronne 160 kbd 2013 (13) Allemagne Shell Harburg 100 kbd 2013 (14) Italy MOL Mantova 55 kbd 2014 Total Europe = 1.6 Mbd to terminal. Partial shutdowns Ou Capacity reduction AMERICAS 10 (1) US New Mexico Western refining Bloomfield 20 kbd 2009 (2) Canada Shell Montreal 125 kbd 2010 (3) US New Jersey Sunoco Eagle Point 150 kbd 2010 (4) US Virginia Western refining Yorktown 65 kbd 2010 (5) US Oklahoma Holly Frontier Tulsa (2 sites) 35 kbd 2010 (partielle) (6) US Virgin Islands Hess/PDVSA St Croix 500 kbd 2011 & 2012 (7) US Pennsylvania Sunoco Marcus Hook 180 kbd 2012 (8) US New Jersey Hess Port Reading 0 kbd (FCC :65kbd) 2013 (9) Canada Imperial Oil Dartmouth 85 kbd 2013 JAPAN /AUSTRALIA (1) Japan Toyama 60 kbd 2009 (2) Japan Yokkaishi 50 kbd 2010 (partielle) (3) Japan Sakaide 30 kbd (partielle) 110 kbd (4) Japan Chiba 20 kbd 2010 (partielle) (5) Japan Kawasaki (Ohgimachi/Keihin) 120 kbd 2011 (partielle) (6) Japan Negishi 70 kbd 2011 (partielle) (7) Japan Ohita 24 kbd 2011 (partielle) (8) Japan Kashima 21 kbd 2011 (partielle) (9) Japan Mizushima 110 kbd 2011 (partielle) (10) Japan Tokuyama 120 kbd 2014 (11) Japan Muroran 180 kbd Total North America = 1.2 Mbd Total Japan = 0.9 Mbd (10) Aruba Valero Aruba 235 kbd 2012 Total Latin America = 0.2 Mbd (12) Australia Clyde 80 kbd 2012 (13) Australia Kurnell 135 kbd 2014 (14) Australia Geelong 120 kbd 2014 (end of) Total Australia = 0.3 Mbd RC / SDR / BIM - May Sources : BIM database 5

6 AFRICAN REFINING ENVIRONMENT 6

7 REFINING: NEW COMPETITORS, NEW FLOWS Growth US distillate exports to EUR CEI North America Sharp decrease EUR gasoline exports to the US Europe Growth ME distillates exports to EUR Competition US EUR on gasoline exports to Africa Middle East Asia US Refining competitive advantage versus EUR and Asia Africa (Margin in $/t) $/t 70 $/t South America gasoline distillate ERMI avantage avantage USGCI brut energie 7

8 AFRICAN REFINERIES COMPETITORS EXAMPLE: SATORP Jubail / Saudi Arabia. 400 kbd, 12 G$, start-up % Arab heavy crude feed, 0% fuel oil (full conversion)

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14 TOTAL IN AFRICA & DISCUSSION 14

15 TOTAL DOWNSTREAM IN AFRICA: DIFFERENTIATION THROUGH LEADERSHIP ON THE CONTINENT

16 TOTAL INVOLVED IN AFRICAN REFINING 16

17 EVOLUTION OF THE AFRICAN REFINING INDUSTRY New capacities Landlock countries: continue to develop taylor made sites Niger, Tchad, soon Uganda: based on local oil ressources easing petroleum products supply Oil producing countries: potential for a few worldclass sites (Nigeria) Old sites Sustainability requires political support Wood Mackenzie 2014 study: a lot of unseen benefits: broader industrial development, tankers CO2 emissions, direct & induced employment Products quality changes: how to face huge investments? Sulfur: investment around 300 M$ for the gasoil of a 3 Mt/y refinery and LS products are available at almost no cost Octane: very expensive to adapt. Need for Isomerization, Alkylation units Benzen: very expensive to adapt. Need to remove it, to destroy it (hydrogenation or export to petchem site) and to replace its very important octane impact

18 TOTAL MARKETING & SERVICES IN AFRICA OUR VISION

19 THANK YOU 19