Australian Toy Market Review Toy Cat Review 2013

Transcription

1 Australian Toy Market Review Toy Cat Review 2013

2 Agenda 1 Market Overview 2 Distributor Overview 3 Category Review

3 NB Please be advised that all data within this presentation refers to data week All data within this presentation with a GREEN heading is sourced from NPD Consumer Monitor, referring to July 2013.

4 ABS Data

5 Economic Indicators Q Economic Indicators GDP Qtr End Jun Real Disposable Income Qtr End Jun Consumer Price Index (CPI) Qtr End Jun Population Dec12 Unemployment Rate Aug Consumer Confidence Aug % 4 3.7% 5.2% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8% % 1.5% = Year ago Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Melbourne Institute

6 Total Retail Sales by Industry: National Value Growth vs. YA 2nd QTR rd QTR th QTR st QTR nd QTR % 3.6% 4.4% 4.5% 2.3% 2.6% 3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.2% 1.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 7.1% 5.3% 3.0% 2.4% -1.8% -0.1% -3.3% -0.6% Total Retail Sales Food Retailing Household Goods Retailing Clothing & Soft Goods Retailing Department Stores Other Retailing Cafes, Restaurants & Takeaway Food Services Toys Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

7 Global Toy Market Overview

8 4 markets still in decline after 7 months Total Toy Industry by Country Ranked by Market Size in U.S. Dollars at 100% of Total Toy Industry Dollar Volume % Chg Market Size (MM) USA 1% $8,436 UK -2% $1,603 France Germany 2% 4% $1318 $1,408 Australia Italy -1% -3% $956 $511 Spain -2% $286 Belgium 4% $254 Poland Austria Portugal 3% 2% 11% $246 $223 $68 Source: The NPD Group; POS Tracking Service; POS extrapolated to represent 100% coverage. Exchange rate 1 = $ 1.25 YTD July 2013 v 12

9 Total Toys Cross Country Performance by super Category % Value change 2013 v 2012 Australia US UK France Germa ny Italy Spain Austria Toy Market Belgiu m Poland Portug al Action Figures & Accessories Arts & Crafts Building Sets Dolls Games/Puzzles Infant/Preschool Youth Electronics Outdoor & Sports Toys Plush Vehicles All Other Toys Note: In the US, that January 2012 had a 4-week period compared to January 2013, which is a 5-week period. The adjustment is consistent with the U.S.-based National Retail Federation s (NRF) published Retailer Calendar. Source: The NPD Group; POS Tracking Service; POS extrapolated to represent 100% coverage. Exchange rate 1 = $ 1.25 YTD July 2013 v 12

10 1 Market Overview

11 Total Toy Market Size Value, Units and ARP $300 Total Market ARP $22.9 $25 $250 $20.7 $19.6 $20 $200 $15 Millions $150 $100 $217.8 $226.9 $227.0 $10 ARP $50 $5 $ $0 Units (000) 10,520 11,578 9,907 Change vs Prior Yr Value +4.2% +0.0% Units +10.1% -14.4% ARP -5.3% +16.9%

12 Toy Market Seasonality Week 1-24 Units: -17.8% Value: -2.7% Toy Cat Units: -14.4% Value: +0.1% $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Millions $20 $10 $ The NPD Group, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential

13 Q: Where were these items purchased?

14 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 Big W outperformed in July-13 Retailer s share on consumption Retailers Share Share Trends Jul-12 Jul-13 25% 25% Big W outperformed Kmart 20.7% 20.7% 20% 20% 17.1% 17.1% 15% 10% 14.2% 14.4% 9.1% 11.1% 15% 10% 14.2% 9.1% 14.4% 11.1% Big W K Mart Target Toys"R"Us 5% 6.1% 6.5% 5% 6.1% 6.5% 0% 2.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% Big W K Mart Target Toys R Us Myer David Jones 0% Jul-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jul-13

15 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 Retail Store was flat compare to last year Online sales growing steadily over the year Channel Share Mkt. Size: $283M 3.5% 4.6% 90% Share Trend 14.5% 80% 70% 76.9% 76.1% 78.6% 75.8% 77.5% 60% 77.5% 50% 40% 30% Retail Store 20% 13.8% 15.6% 14.3% 15.8% 14.5% Online 10% Catalog or Mail Order Other 0% Jul-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jul-13

16 Who and what are they buying online?

17 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 Retail Store vs. Online Retail Store Value % Online Value % Outdoor & Sports Toys 20.4% Outdoor & Sports Toys 16.2% Infant & Preschool Toys 16.3% Infant & Preschool Toys 12.5% Building Sets 11.0% Dolls 11.1% Dolls 11.0% Building Sets 7.3% Arts & Crafts 8.2% Arts & Crafts 6.3% Electronic toy 7.4% Electronic toy 8.1% Vehicles 5.9% Vehicles 9.9% Action figures 5.5% Other toy 9.1% Other toy 5.4% Action figures 8.0% Stuffed toy or puppet 4.9% Stuffed toy or puppet 5.2% Game or puzzle 4.0% Game or puzzle 6.4% Expenditure by Age Group Expenditure by Age Group 15% 26% 18% 14% 27% 16% 30% 20% 22% 13% more elder shoppers Retail store lost mid-age group shoppers

18 Boys

19 Gender Market Size & Trends - Boys Market Size Category performance Boys - Building Sets, Vehicles, Action Figures $70 $60 $50 Total boys ARP Without $20 Lego Friends $15 +3% +2% +9% -15% 2012 $ $30 $55.4 $59.6 $59.9 $10 -$3.9m $28.8 $31.3 $20 $10 $5 $14.3 $14.6 $16.5 $14.0 $0 $ Action Figures Building Sets Vehicles Units (000) 2,295 2,434 2,281 Change vs Prior Yr Value +7.4% +0.5% Units +6.1% -6.3% ARP +1.3% +7.3% -2.5% -9%

20 What s selling for boys? Rank Property Category *Building Sets Friends removed 1 CITY Building Sets 2 TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES Action Figures & Acc 3 STAR WARS Building Sets 4 HOT WHEELS Vehicles 5 CREATOR Building Sets 6 DUPLO Building Sets 7 DC UNIVERSE Building Sets 8 DISNEY TOY STORY Action Figures & Acc 9 STAR WARS Action Figures & Acc 10 TRANSFORMERS Action Figures & Acc 11 CHIMA Building Sets 12 TECHNIC Building Sets 13 MEGA BLOKS Building Sets 14 DISNEY CARS Vehicles 15 IRON MAN Action Figures & Acc 16 BRICKS & MORE Building Sets 17 LONE RANGER Building Sets 18 SPIDERMAN Action Figures & Acc 19 MARIO BROS Vehicles 20 TONKA Vehicles Skylanders*: Units: 0.4m Value: $5.5m AvP: $11.88 * NPD Games data has a market coverage of 98%, hence it is not directly comparable to Toys data.

21 Girls

22 Gender Market Size & Trends - Girls Market Size Girls - Category performance Arts & Crafts, Dolls $45 $40 $35 $15.8 Total girls $15.2 ARP $ Lego $20 Friends $18 $16 + Furby & Fijit Friends -8% -5% $30 $25 $14 $ $20 $15 $37.6 $41.2 $38.8 $10 $8 +$3.9m $6 +$2.5m 2013 $10 $4 $5 $2 $ $0 Arts & Crafts Dolls Units (000) 2,381 2,705 2,248 Change vs Prior Yr Value +9.6% -5.8% Units +13.6% -16.9% ARP -3.6% +13.3% -2% -15% +1% -13%

23 What s selling for girls? Rank YA 5 22 Rank Property Category 1 BARBIE Dolls 2 MONSTER HIGH Dolls 3 LALALOOPSY Dolls 4 DISNEY PRINCESS Dolls 5 CRAYOLA Arts & Crafts 6 MY LITTLE PONY Dolls 7 CABBAGE PATCH KIDS Dolls 8 PLAY-DOH Arts & Crafts 9 BABY BORN Dolls 10 LITTLEST PET SHOP Dolls 11 DISNEY FAIRIES Dolls 12 BABY ALIVE Dolls 13 GELEEZ Arts & Crafts 14 DORA THE EXPLORER Dolls 15 BLINGLES Arts & Crafts 16 CREATIVITY FOR KIDS Arts & Crafts 17 FABER CASTELL Arts & Crafts 18 INKOOS Arts & Crafts 19 MOXIE Dolls 20 DISNEY PRINCESS Arts & Crafts

24 Infant & Preschoolers

25 Market Size Gender Market Size & Trends Infant & Preschooler Infant & Preschooler - Category performance Infant & Preschool, Plush Total I&P ARP $70 $20 $18 $60 $50 $16 $ % +17.1% $40 $30 $20 $58.3 $59.7 $62.8 $12 $10 $8 $6 $48.4 $ $4 $10 $2 $11.3 $13.2 $0 $ Units (000) 2,764 2,878 2,625 Infant/Preschool Toys Plush Change vs Prior Yr Value +2.3% +5.3% Units +4.1% -8.8% ARP -1.8% +15.4%

26 What s selling for Infant & Preschoolers? Rank YA Rank Property Category 1 FISHER PRICE Infant/Preschool Toys 2 LEAPFROG Infant/Preschool Toys 3 THOMAS & FRIENDS Infant/Preschool Toys 4 FURREAL Plush 5 VTECH Infant/Preschool Toys 6 LITTLE TIKES Infant/Preschool Toys 7 PILLOW PETS Plush 8 DINOSAUR TRAIN Infant/Preschool Toys 9 OCTONAUTS Infant/Preschool Toys 10 DISNEY MONSTERS INC Plush 11 PEPPA PIG Infant/Preschool Toys 12 BRIGHT STARTS Infant/Preschool Toys 13 DISNEY PRINCESS Infant/Preschool Toys 14 DISNEY MINNIE MOUSE Infant/Preschool Toys 15 DISNEY JAKE AND THE NEVER LAND PIRATES Infant/Preschool Toys 16 KIDKRAFT Infant/Preschool Toys 17 PLAYGRO Infant/Preschool Toys 18 CRAYOLA Infant/Preschool Toys 19 PLAYSKOOL Infant/Preschool Toys 20 LAMAZE Infant/Preschool Toys

27 Other Toys

28 Gender Market Size & Trends - Other Market Size Other - Games/Puzzles, Outdoor & Sports, Youth Electronics, All Other Toys Category performance $70 $21.5 Total Other ARP $23.8 $ % -6.3% +1.8% +29.3% $60 $18.7 $20 $50 $40 $ $30 $66.4 $66.5 $65.5 $ $20 $5 $39.5 $40.2 $10 $ $0 $12.2 $9.9 $10.6 $10.0 $4.2 $5.4 Units (000) 3,080 3,560 2,754 All Other Toys Games/Puzzles Outdoor & Sports Toys Youth Electronics Change vs Prior Yr Value +0.2% -1.5% Units +15.6% -22.6% ARP -13.3% +27.3%

29 What s selling in other toys? Rank Property Category 1 ACTION Outdoor & Sports Toys 2 LITTLE TIKES Outdoor & Sports Toys 3 NERF Outdoor & Sports Toys 4 RAZOR Outdoor & Sports Toys 5 TRASH PACK All Other Toys 6 FURBY Youth Electronics 7 DISNEY CARS Outdoor & Sports Toys 8 FIJIT FRIENDS Youth Electronics 9 SMART TRIKE Outdoor & Sports Toys 10 MONOPOLY Games/Puzzles 11 FISHER PRICE Outdoor & Sports Toys 12 INTEX Outdoor & Sports Toys 13 SPYNET Youth Electronics 14 DISNEY PRINCESS Outdoor & Sports Toys 15 THOMAS & FRIENDS Outdoor & Sports Toys 16 TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES Outdoor & Sports Toys 17 AIRWALK Outdoor & Sports Toys 18 DORA THE EXPLORER Outdoor & Sports Toys 19 ZURU Outdoor & Sports Toys 20 DISNEY FAIRIES Outdoor & Sports Toys

30 Shakers & Movers - Properties 2012 vs Value Thousands Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Disney Monsters Inc Monster High Disney Minnie Mouse Peppa Pig Friends Little Tikes Furby Jake And The Never Land Pirates Despicable Me Chima Lalaloopsy Lone Ranger Disney Princess Iron Man One Direction Batman Maxi Littlest Pet Shop Sesame Street Thomas & Friends Disney Toy Story Fisher Price Dora The Explorer Pillow Pets Barbie Leapfrog Ninjago Star Wars Nerf Disney Cars Spiderman $3,906 $733 $749 $831 $855 $1,024 $1,207 $1,300 $1,320 $1,324 $1,453 $1,584 $2,028 $2,049 $2,165 $2,313 $2,910 $2,348 $2,016 $1,908 $1,733 $1,583 $1,517 $1,437 $1,368 $1,339 $1,131 $1,070 $989 $947 $933 $5, properties gained over $100K 75properties lost over $100K The NPD Group, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential

31 Price Points

32 Toy Market Average Price Trends $24 $22 $22 $21 $20 $20 $18 $19 $16 $15 $16 $15 $16 $16 $17 $14 $14 $14 $13 $13 $13 $13 $13 $12 $12 $10 $11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The NPD Group, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential

33 Average price spent in retailer

34 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 Most retailers are moving away from the trend of lower AVP Average price spent in retailer $30 $26.9 Average price gap closing among majors $25 $22.6 AVP $20 $15 $21.1 $18.2 $17.2 $15.3 $21.7 $18.88 $19.1 $17.85 $17.19 $17.5 Big W K Mart Target Toys R Us $10 $5 $0 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jul-13

35 Q: Primary reason you chose this retailer?

36 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 It s not just about price anymore Primary reason you chose this retailer Other 11% 11% Had a special offer/sale/promotion 16% 11% Has the lowest prices 12% 15% 15% 16% Has good choice of brands and products Good overall value for the price Convenient location 20% 19% Jul-12 Jul-13

37 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 It s not just about price anymore Primary reason you chose this retailer Other 11% 11% 11% 9% 7% 22% 19% 17% 12% Had a special offer/sale/promotion 13% 15% 15% 24% 20% 12% 8% 10% 8% Has the lowest prices 13% 11% 10% 9% 13% 12% 12% 22% 24% Has good choice of brands and products 16% 17% 13% 15% 18% 16% 19% 12% 15% Good overall value for the price 19% 23% 25% 22% 20% 21% 19% 16% 16% Convenient location

38 Moving away from all-year-round sales

39 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 Sales concentrating in sales period this year Was the item on sale? Retail Store purchase Value % sold on promo 60% 50% 40% % on sale 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jul-13

40 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 Shoppers held back until sales season Purchased for what occasion Jul 2012 Jul % 14.5% 4.0% 10.6% 45.0% No Special Occasion Birthday Christmas 3.8% 11.6% 40.8% Birth or Adoption of Baby Other 26.1% 29.3% As promo concentrate in sales period this year Shoppers held back in until Toy Cat

41 Toy Trends 2013

42 What s the trend? - boys Action Figures Action Role Play Video Games + TMNT $2.9m $5.5m *NPD Games = 98% coverage Battling Toys Vehicles Monsuno $0.14m SW Angry Birds $0.2m Chima $1.3m Evergreen Beyblade $1.9m (2011) Can bring up the category again?

43 What s the trend? - Girls Plush Interactive toys Craft kits Dolls Barbie -$1.2m

44 Boys + Girls + Preschoolers! Playsets / building sets Boys Girls Preschoolers

45 Licenses! Infant/Preschool Toys + $ 3.3m Outdoor & Sports Toys + $ 0.7m Building Sets - $ 1.1m Declined from Star Wars, though grew in non-license Dolls + $ 0.2m non-licensed Action Figures & Acc + $ 0.6m licensed Vehicles - $ 1.3m 31% 31% 34% Plush + $ 3.9m TC 2011 TC 2012 TC 2013 Arts & Crafts - $ 0.1m Games/Puzzles - $ 0.4m All Other Toys - $ 0.3m Youth Electronics - $ 0.4m

46 Outlook for Christmas

47 Outside of Toys.2013 Disney Infinity o New video game release in Aug 2013 o Toy figurines cross-over game first week of sales Units Value 2011 wk 41 Skylanders Spyros Adventure 23,171 $945, wk 42 Skylanders Giants 160,111 $5,033, wk 34 Disney Infinity 97,397 $3,077,869 PS4 and Xbox One gaming console to be launched in Q iphone 5s & 5c o Launch event Sept 10

48 Kmart 6 months catalogue 2013 without lay-by with long-life low prices Lasting 6 months through to Christmas Majority of toys being Kmart branded Promoting everyday low price No Christmas lay-by

49 Source: NPD Consumer Monitor Period: Jul 2013 Shoppers perception on Kmart s price offer has declined Good overall value for price/ lowest price 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% Big W K Mart 21% 20% 20% 19% Jul-12 Dec-12 Jul-13

50 Trend Toy Catalogue - Prediction For Christmas 2013 Million % 4.1% -0.5% 0.3% 17.3% 9.1% 7.3% -7.4% -0.3% Value change % -1% Toy Cat (Weeks 25-30) Christmas (Nov-Dec) Units (million) % chg Units % 7.6% 9.4% 11.7% -4.6% -1.7% 9.6% -3.2% -14.5% -15%

51 Summary of Toy Catalogue Period Demand for toys was weak for Toy Cat 2013, units were down a heavy 14.4%. Higher average price of 16.9% was only able to push the value sales into a flat growth. Boys Toys (excluding Lego Friends in building Sets) saw single digit units and value decline. Vehicles were behind the decline, value down 15%. While Building Sets and Action Figures enjoyed value growth of 3% and 2% respectively. Girls Toys were down in both units and value despite the higher average price. With Lego Friends (+$3.9m), Fijit Friends and Furby (+$2.5m) included, value growth would result in a positive 1% growth while units will still be in decline. Infant & Preschooler Toys enjoyed 5.3% value growth while units were down 8.8%. Both Infant/Preschool Toys and Plush were behind the growth. For the Other toys sector, units dropped a heavy 22.6%. Value was down 1.5% despite the growth in average price. All Other Toys and Games/Puzzles were behind the decline while Youth Electronics and Outdoor Sports Toys saw growth. Fisher Price still holds the top property ranking however suffered YOY decline. Barbie and Star Wars in 2 nd and 3 rd place also recorded double digit declines. Top absolute value adding properties were Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Disney Monsters Inc, Monster High, Disney Minnie Mouse and Peppa Pig. While properties suffered the most declined were Spiderman, Disney Cars, Nerf, and Star Wars. While under $30 was the growing area last year, this year Toy Cat these price bands suffered the most decline. And with the increase in average price of toys above $30 price bands all enjoyed growth, in particular the $30-40 which gained the most dollar.