The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Opportunity Day for Q1Y2011 performance June 3, 2011

Transcription

1 The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. Opportunity Day for Q1Y2011 performance June 3, 2011 Mr. Vichien Usanachote Senior EVP-Refinery Business Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance

2 Agenda Achievements in Q1 Y2011 Refinery and Marketing Outlook Business Outlook Performance in Q1 Y2011 2

3 BCP Achievements in Q1 Y2011 Refinery Turnaround Higher performance catalyst High base GRM Marketing Sales Growth in E million litre / month Inthanin Coffee Site Expansion Beyond Service Station New Lubricant Product Launch New Business Solar Farm Phase I (38 MW), 70% construction progress Expanding to Ethanol Business: Share Acquisition in UBE (21.30%) Pilot Project of Palm Plantation 1,200 Rais 3

4 Turnaround Result Q1 average crude run 62.7 KBD Crude Run above 100 KBD with better yield of JP-1 Product Yield Turnaround Period 32 days Note : During Feb 3 Mar 6,2011, catalyst changing MOGAS /FO/LPG JET HSD Y2010 Y2011 (Plan) Catalyst changing to enhance yield of more valuable product Lift yield of middle distillate pool Optimize Jet & Diesel proportion to minimize export and earn expected better spread 4

5 Global Oil Market: Prices Movement $/BBL WTI Brent Dubai Weak US dollar on speculation of QE2 appealed commodities such as oil QE2 Concern over U.S. economic recovery Winter Demand Unrest in Middle East and North Africa 5

6 Global Oil Market: Prices Movement UNL 95-Dubai Gas Oil-Dubai $/BBL UNL 95-Dubai Refinery Margin Heavy refinery turnaround in Asia Strong demand from Indonesia and Vietnam 9.62 Q Q Q Q Q Gas Oil-Dubai 0.00 Heavy refinery turnaround in Asia Limited export from China to prevent domestic shortages Fuel Oil-Dubai Fuel Oil-Dubai Higher crude price pressure down fuel oil Higher western arbitrage to East $/BBL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q

7 GRM Performance Market GRM ($/BBL) Unit : $/bbl 1Q11 1Q11 1Q10 4Q10 1Q10 4Q10 Crude Selection Singapore Base GRM : 7.4 $/bbl Base GRM GRM Hedging ($/BBL) 6.41 GRM Hedging ($/BBL) 1Q11 1Q10 4Q10 Inventory G (L) ($/BBL) ME 1% FE 38% Other 6% Local 55% GRM Hedging Inventory G (L) ($/BBL) GRM : $/bbl Inventory G(L) MKM MKM ($/BBL) MKM ($/BBL) Q11 1Q10 4Q Q11 1Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Local crude usage higher than target (40%) Advantage of using local crude Low Sulfur Low Transportation Cost Minimum Inventory day 7

8 Marketing Highlight BCP s Sales Volume (K.Litres) +89.1% 4,900 9,300 Thailand No.1 in E20 & E85 service stations Well-recognized active CRM program of member card % GSH E GSH E85 1Q10 1Q11 1Q10 1Q11 Gasohol Club Member Number of Membership 340, ,985 Number Of Service stations Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 (As of Apr) E , ,091 E Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 (As of Apr) 8

9 Inthanin Coffee Site Expansion Beyond Service Station, now come closer to you Inthanin CTW Faculty of Engineering CU Faculty of Architect TU 9

10 New Lubricant Product Launch FULLY SYNTHETIC / SAE 5W-30 API SN / ILSAC GF-5 / DEXOS

11 Solar Farm Phase I : 38 MW Project Cost : Baht 4,200 Million Average Project EBITDA : Baht 700 Million/Yr Location : Bang Pa In, Ayudthaya Province Capacity : 38 MW COD : Q

12 Solar Farm Phase I : 38 MW PV Module Installation 12

13 Share Acquisition in UBE Ubon Bio Ethanol Shareholders structure Existing Shareholder 57.40% BCP 21.30% TOP 21.30% Project Cost: Baht 5,000 Million Average Project EBITDA : Baht 1,400 Million/Yr Location : North Eastern Capacity : 1 - Ethanol 400,000 liters/day from cassava (COD Oct-12) 2 - Cassava 3 Plantation 10,000 Rais BOI tax privilege of corporate income tax waive for 8 years 13

14 Palm Plantation Project Cost : Baht 800 Million Average Project EBITDA : Baht 230 Million/Yr Location : Rungsit, Pathumthani Province, Central of Thailand Capacity : Palm Plantation 80,000 Rais Palm mill with capacity 45 tons/hour Project progress : Pilot project of 1,200 Rais under land preparation phase Demonstrated Plantation 14

15 Agenda Achievements in Q1 Y2011 Refinery and Marketing Outlook Business Outlook Performance in Q1 Y

16 Oil Market Outlook: Macroeconomics World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoY) The worst is over Economy is moderate recovery Source : IMF, Apr 2011 Global economy is continuing to grow this year, especially in China and India World US EU Japan China India 16

17 Oil Market Outlook: Demand North America Latin America Europe Middle East Africa FSU 291 Asia Source : IEA, May 2011 *Include Biofuel Demand Yearly demand rise will be driven by emerging countries such as China and Middle East, while OECD countries will still see their year-on-year consumption declining in Global Oil Demand* (MBD) +1.3, 1.5% +2.8, 3.3%

18 World Oil Balance (MBD) Oil Market Outlook: Supply World Oil Balance (Demand/Supply) Call on OPEC 29.7 MBD OPEC Supply OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply Total Demand Source : IEA, May 2011 The continued delay in Libyan oil production could have long lasting effects. This is because Saudi Arabia increase oil production to cover Libya loss will reduce OPEC s spare capacity. 18

19 Oil Market Outlook: Key Factors If the unrest in MENA resolve, oil price should correct downward. Net position of speculator records long crude oil. Is now the time to sell oil? If there is no QE3, the price of oil will decrease. Europe's leaders try to stop to the debt crisis away at Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and which could soon affect other states. Policy actions to curb inflation in China may slow down economic growth. 19

20 Oil Market Outlook: Oil Price Forecast $/BBL Q2-11 Q3-11 Q Barclays BNP Paribas Credit Suisse Deutsche Goldman Sachs JBC Energy JP Morgan Morgan Stanley Median Source : Reuters Polls, May,

21 Oil Market Outlook: Product Cracks Product cracks are expected to be strong. $/BBL Gas Oil ULG95 ~ 20 $/BBL Dubai Dubai ULG95 Gas Oil BCP Forecasted Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21

22 Oil Market Outlook: Refinery Margins $/BBL Singapore s refinery margins outlook remained healthy. $/BBL Cracking Margin Topping Margin Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Source : Reuters 22

23 KBD 120.0KBD Outlook 2011 : Refinery Business 9.62 $/bbl HSD 6 Q1 Q1 (Actual) Q2 (Plan) Base GRM Q3 Q3 (Plan) Crude Run Base GRM $/bbl Q4 Q4 (Plan) (Plan) Sale Volume Y2011 Y2011 Turnaround period 32 days during Feb 3 Mar 6, Base GRM MOGAS /FO/LPG JET Crude Run Sale Volume Y2010 Product Yield Y2011 (Plan) Middle Distillate Pool Catalyst changing to enhance yield of more valuable product Lift yield of middle distillate pool Optimize Jet & Diesel proportion to minimize export and earn expected better spread 23 23

24 Energy Saving (MB/year) Energy Reduction (%FOEB) Refinery Business Plan Energy Improvement Road Map Energy reduction and saving Investment plan (MB)

25 Marketing Business : Domestic Key Factors 2011 GDP Political Growth Tension % Thailand s GDP Growth 3.0% in Q YoY higher than expectation Political issue in Thailand can affect oil demand Bubble election Risk in in July China Key Factors Growth in renewable energy consumption Quantitative Easing (QE) Opportunity for renewable energy as oil price increase Growth Global in Economic new car Recovery sales More Eco-Car 25

26 Marketing Business Plan Unit : Million Litres 323 Average Sales Volume in Q1 (Actual) Q2 (PLAN) Q3 (PLAN) Q4 (PLAN) 198 HSD MOGAS JET FO LUBE Stations - E stations 352 stations Increase number of service stations Stations - E85 20 stations 5 stations 2011 (as of Apr) 2011 (Target) 2011 (as of Apr) 2011 (Target) 26

27 Agenda Achievements in Q1 Y2011 Refinery and Marketing Outlook Business Outlook Performance in Q1 Y

28 BCP, Continuing Growth Y2010 Retailing New Business. Refinery Y2015 Refinery 72% Retailing 22% New Business 6% Refinery 50% Retailing 20% New Business 30% Chart Title 2, Solar Biofuel Potash Algae EBITDA Baht 6,165 Million EBITDA > Baht 10,000 Million 28

29 Solar Project Secured PPA 118 MW with EGAT and PEA Adder 8 Baht/Kwh for 10 years BOI tax privilege of corporate income tax waive for 8 years Phase II 1,300 MB Phase III 2,200 MB TOTAL/Yr EBITDA/Yr Phase I 700 MB Capacity 32 MW Project cost : 3,600 MB EBITDA : 600 MB/Y COD : Q4/2012 Capacity 48 MW Project cost : 5,400 MB EBITDA : 900 MB/Y COD : Q4/2013 Capacity 38 MW Project cost : 4,200 MB EBITDA : 700 MB/Y COD : Q4/

30 Biofuel Project Biodiesel Plant Ethanol Plant Ethanol Plant (BBF) (TAE) (UBE) Fully Operated Commissioning Test Under Construction Biofuel 30

31 Biofuel Project : Biodiesel (BBF) Bangchak Bio Fuel Shareholders structure UAC 30% BCP 70% Project Cost : Baht 1,018 Million Capacity : 300,000 liters/day Started COD : Dec-09 EBITDA 2010 : Baht 340 Million Utilization Rate & Production Plan % 85% 73% 72% 43% Q Q Q Q Yr 2011 Utilization Rate Production Plan (ML) Location : Bang Pa In, Ayudthaya Province (next to BCP Terminal) Benefits : Secured BCP s demand for Biodiesel BOI tax privilege of corporate income tax waive for 8 years until

32 Biofuel Project : Ethanol Ethanol Projects UBE UBON BIO ETHANOL BOI tax privilege of corporate income tax waive for 8 years TAE THAI ARGO ENERGY UBE TAE BCP Holding 21.30% 40.00% Project Cost (Million Baht) 5,000 2,100 Average Project EBITDA (Million Baht/Yr) 1, Location Ubonratchani Suphanburi - Ethanol 400,000 liters/day - 165,000 liters/day from Molasses Capacity from Cassava (COD Oct-12) - 200,000 liters/day from - Cassava Plantation 10,000 Rais from Cassava (COD June-11) ( 3,950 Acre / 224 Hector) TAE Plant 32

33 Other Projects Algae Potash BCP holds 16.20% in APMC Indicative Project Cost : Baht 1.1 Billion Location : Area 500 Rais (Ratchburi) Capacity : 30,000 liters/day Expected completion in 2014 Location : Chaiyaphum province Technology : Solution mining or Underground mining ASEAN Potash Mining Company (APMC) $/bbl Production Cost Refining Cost Total Cost Residual Crude Oil Fuel Oil Algae Oil None As of November, 2010 BCP-Thailand The Bangchak Petroleum Green Energy Plc. Leader 33

34 Agenda Achievements in Q1 Y2011 Refinery and Marketing Outlook Business Outlook Performance in Q1 Y

35 Profit and Loss Highlights Q1 Y2011 Consolidated 1Q2011 1Q2010 r Sale Revenue 35,759 33, % EBITDA 2,271 1, % Refinery business 1,890 1, % Marketing business % Other businesses % Depreciation & Amortization (438) (462) Other FX and Impairment Financial Cost (200) (209) Pre-tax Profit 1,894 1, % Tax (449) (283) Net Profit 1, % EPS Inventory Gain/(Loss) % Adjusted EBITDA 1,383 1, % Refinery business 1, % Marketing business % 35

36 Financial Position Q1 Y2011 Unit : Million Baht Consolidated Assets 31-Mar Dec-10 Liabilities 31-Mar Dec-10 Cash 2,071 9,109 Short Term Loan + Due 1 Yr 3,462 2,702 Trade Accounts Receivable 7,470 5,726 Trade Accounts Payable 11,135 10,234 Inventories 18,475 15,608 Other Current Liabilities 4,507 4,644 Other Current Assets 5,080 1,701 Long Term Loan 13,814 14,979 Current Assets 33,096 32,144 Convertible Debenture 897 1,937 Other Non current Liabilities 1,079 1,137 Total Liabilities 34,893 35,632 Shareholders' Equity PPE 24,879 24,141 Common Share 1,250 1,177 Leasehold Right Premium on Share Capital 9,448 8,481 Other Non-Current Assets 1,199 1,173 Retain Earning 14,383 12,958 Non-controlling interest Total Equity 25,230 22,780 Total Assets 60,123 58,412 Total Liabilities & Equity 60,123 58,412 Remark : Figures were adjusted to the new accounting standard 36

37 Financial Measurement Q1 Y2011 Consolidated PROFIT / RETURN RATIO (1Q2011) Net Profit Margin % 3.98 Total EBITDA 2,325 MB Net Profit 1,508 MB Earning per Share Baht 1.14 Return on Equity-ROE % 5.97 Return on Assets-ROA % % BBF 5% 15% Marketing BU 12% FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO (As of 31 Mar 11) Current Ratio times 1.73 AR Day days DSCR times 3.68 D/E Ratio times 0.72 Net debt to EBITDA times 2.78 Book Value per Share (BV) Baht Refinery BU 81% 83% EBITDA Net Profit Refinery Business Marketing & Service station BBF 37

38 Agenda Achievements in Q1 Y2011 Refinery and Marketing Outlook Business Outlook Performance in Q1 Y2011 Activities in Q1 Y

39 IR Activities Money Hat Yai (Feb 10-13, 2011) จ บน ำชำก บจอมย ทธ Trinity Tea Talk (Feb 17, 2011) 39

40 IR Activities Analyst Meeting (Feb 28, 2011) BNP S ASEAN Conference Road Show in Hong Kong (March 3, 2011) Opportunity Day (March 7, 2011) 40

41 Marketing Activities งำนร บรำงว ล "ป มค ณภำพ ปลอดภ ย น ำใช บร กำร 41

42 Sales & Promotion Activities Co-Promotion with VISA & Krungsri Credit Card เต ม E20 E85 ร บส วนลด สะสม 60 สต./ล ตร ร บส ทธ เต มน าม นราคา เด ม ในว นท ปร บราคา 42

43 Tel , click Investor Relations Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited ( BCP ) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.

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45 Moving toward SET50 Current Outstanding no. of share : 1,327,893,888 58% stock price increase 13% share increase May, th Rank Apr, th Rank Mar, th Rank Feb th Rank Jan, th Rank Ranking : As of the end of each month 45

46 Moving toward SET50 Million Baht 30,000 71% Increase in Market Cap 25,000 20,000 15,000 Source : TISCO Research 10,000 5,000 0 BCP Market Cap during June, 2010 May, 2011 Current Outstanding no. of share : 1,327,893,888 58% stock price increase 13% share increase As of May 27,