Opening keynote: Setting the scene the shipowners and shipmanagers point of view

Transcription

1 IBIA Annual Convention Hamburg November 2014, Hamburg Dr Hermann J. Klein, CEO E.R. Schiffahrt Opening keynote: Setting the scene the shipowners and shipmanagers point of view

2 Change of shipping in challenging markets 2

3 Ship speeds in 2007 Ship speeds today vs. The ship speed is significant lower than 7 years ago! 3

4 Consumption (Propulsion) [mt/d] 8,500 TEU vessel in 2008» Weighted mean speed 23 kn / weighted mean consumption 196 mt/day 4

5 Consumption (Propulsion) [mt/d] 8,500 TEU vessel in 2010» Weighted mean speed 20 kn / weighted mean consumption 143 mt/day 5

6 Consumption (Propulsion) [mt/d] 8,500 TEU vessel in 2012» Weighted mean speed 19 kn / weighted mean consumption 127 mt/day Vessel designed and optimized for 6

7 Operational challenge» Enabling and optimizing vessels for different operation profiles Fuel Consumption [mt/d] % 0.0% 0.8% consumption propulsion [mt/d] time-based share of speeds [%] % 2.5% 1.7% 3.3% 3.3% % 2.5% 1.7% 15.0% % % % % 5.8% 5.0% 7.5% % 6.7% Speed profile in % % 1.7% 0.0% Speed profile in % % 15% 10% 5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% Max. speed design point Percentage trading speeds Vessel speed kn (STW) 7

8 Quality & Compliance Costs / Prices Emissions 8

9 The challenge of efficiency» Increased fuel-efficiency of vessels and main propulsion systems Identification of consumption components Consumption Total saving Design Reasons Operational Reasons Non-optimized machinery design Non-optimized hull design Reasons related to charterers (e.g. scheduling, waiting times at terminals etc.) Reasons related to owner (e.g. voyage execution, trim, maintenance) Source: APL every drop counts 9

10 Liners demand for optimised vessels New bulb» The new bulbous bow design reduce the form related resistance and optimise the wave resistance for the new operation profile.» The second benefit of the new bulbous bow installation is a reduced total resistance of the vessel which enable additional optimization and saving potential in way of the propeller design. 10

11 Market search for best rated vessels 11

12 The relevance of total costs US$/day charter rate bunker fuel costs» 10% fuel consumption reduction equals to 30% of the charter rate 12

13 Future proofing to meet upcoming challenges: 1) Regulatory 2) Operational 3) Efficiency 13

14 1) Regulatory Challenges» Limitation of Sulphur Scrubber technology Substitution HFO» Limitation of Nox New engines Modification kits Substitution HFO» Monitoring of CO 2 Limitation of CO 2 Reduction of CO 2 Substitution HFO 14

15 Sox Reduction Solutions (LNG & Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems) Sox Reduction Solutions LNG* Exhaust Gas Cleaning * No reference System available Pilot Project only Wet Scrubber Systems Dry Scrubber Systems* * No approved System available on the market Open Loop Closed Loop Hybrid 15

16 Low sulphur regulations and the impact on fuel costs 16

17 Possible development of fuel costs A CO 2 -emission trading may start in Associated costs are based on IPCC reports. In 2020, SO x -limits for fuel globally apply. Diesel quality fuels demand a premium, estimated to be 50% of HFO price Price for HFO will continue to increase in the long run (2.5% per year assumed) Source: DNV GL research. The analysis excludes inflation effects. 17

18 Marine Fuels LLSHFO MDO MGO LNG ULSHFO» On board handling of different fuel types 18

19 The future of shipping Yesterday Today Tomorrow Arriving Arriving in time and reliable Perfect remote controlled shipping at lowest costs 19

20 HFO and LNG Price Projections ( ) US$/t Low HFO Reference HFO High HFO 1,400 1,200 1,000 HFO Source: DNV GL Shipping US$/t 1,400 1,200 1, LNG » Gross heat of combustion for one kg of natural gas is abt. 49 MJ ( 13,5 kwh) and for one kg of HFO abt. 41,5 MJ ( 11,0).» Price per calorific value: LNG is abt. 8% less than HFO and abt. 40% less than MGO. 20

21 LNG as a solution? 21

22 Potential of LNG» First vessels (ferries, offshore vessels) already in operation.» Tankers are announced. Container vessels under development. Source: MAN 22

23 HFO and LNG price projections ( ) Low HFO Reference HFO High HFO 1,400 1,200 1,000 HFO 1,400 1,200 1,000 LNG US$/t US$/t Source: DNV Shipping 2020» Gross heat of combustion for one kg of natural gas is abt. 49 MJ ( 13,5 kwh) and for one kg of HFO abt. 41,5 MJ ( 11,0)» Price per calorific value: LNG is abt. 8% less than HFO and abt. 40% less than MGO 23

24 LNG-Aspects» Price difference per calorific value» Difference in emissions» LNG-Availability and infrastructure» Price surplus for new ships / conversions» Tank space and influence on cargo space» Operational aspects: refueling 24

25 Clean shipping in Hamburg (Fuel Cell and Hydrogen) 25

26 3D printers might change the shipping industry and reduce fuel consumption 26

27 The challenge for marine propulsion & auxiliary machinery Lower costs Source: DNV GL Group 27

28 Thank you 28