MARINTEK The Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute

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2 MARINTEK The Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute Ocean laboratory to test out offshore construction and vessel concepts 50 x 80 meter Towing tank 260 meter Engine laboratory Raiser laboratory Profit made is reinvested MARINTEK

3 The development of the Ocean Space Centre and the new infrastructure by Wave basin 230 x 35 m - Ocean laboratory 30 m depth - New engine laboratory - New raiser laboratory - Upgrade of existing ocean laboratory MARINTEK 3

4 Outline of presentation Why bother about maritime transport in a climate change setting The focus of these studies (Work in progress) Some Observations

5 Development of Population, Energy consumption, GDP, transport and trade (All monetary figures adj. to 2010) Year Population in millions Energy Consumption in million ton oil equivalents GDP in billion USD Maritime transport in million tons World trade in billion USD World trade in percenttage of GDP % % % % % % % Percentage increase from % 60% 30% 140% 100% 50% 130% 80% 420% 250% 80% 210% 240% 640% 770% 110% 290% 320% 700% 1 250% 140% 350% 390% 1 100% 1 900% 180% 470% 670% 1 500% 3 700% 5

6 Emissions from ships To Air Exhaust gas from ship machinery Freon and Halon leakage from cooling equipment VOC from the loading and discharging of crude oil and oil products To Sea Sewage Oil spills from engine room Ballast water Antifouling and paint Washing of cargo compartments 6

7 International shipping CO 2 emission scenarios until 2050 [Source: IMO 2009] Growth figures according to IPCC scenarios Gap between emission scenarios and 450 ppm target 350 % 300 % 250 % Annual CO2 emissions with business as usual Annual CO2 emissions with 450 ppm CO2 emission versus transport work to reach 450 ppm target 200 % 150 % 100 % 50 % 0 %

8 Shipping represents a significant share of the global anthropogenic emissions Measured by weight CO Million ton NOx 25 Million ton SO 2 15 Million ton Measured by % of total NOx % SO % CO % Source IMO 2009 GHG study: (Buhaug et al., 2009) 8

9 The Impact of ship emissions is large in Europe due to the density of ship traffic 9 Source: International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set 9

10 High shipping traffic density in combination with wind and weather pattern high levels of sulphur and nitrate deposits in Western Europe Source: Dalsøren et al

11 Hull Form Lindstad, H., Steen, S., Sandass, I Assessment of profit, cost, and emissions for slender bulk vessel designs. Transportation Research Part D 29(2014) Lindstad, H., Jullumstrø, E., Sandass, Reduction in cost and emissions with new bulk ships designed enabled by the Panama Canal expansion. Energy Policy 59 (2013), Page Logistics & Operation Fagerholt, K., Lindstad, H., Optimal policies for maintaining a supply service in the Norwegian Sea. The International Journal of Management Science. Omega 28 (2000) Cargo Handling concepts Lindstad, H., Asbjørnslett, B., E. Pedersen, J., T. 2012, Green Maritime Logistics and Sustainability. In Song D., W, Panayides, P., M. (Eds.) Maritime Logistics: Contemporary Issues (2012), Page , Emerald, ISBN Lindstad, H. Asbjørnslett, B. E., Strømman, A., H., 2012, The Importance of economies of scale for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. Energy Policy 46 (2012), Page Power Production Lindstad, H. Asbjørnslett, B., E., Jullumstrø, E., Assessment of profit, cost and emissions by varying speed as a function of sea conditions and freight market. Transportation Research Part D 19 (2013), Page Fagerholt, K., Johnsen, A.V., Lindstad, H., Fleet deployment in liner shipping A case study. Maritime Policy & Management 2009, 5 ( )

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13 Transport cost as a function of fuel cost and speed 9000 nm roundtrip (loaded&ballast) Fuel cost Cost at 14 knots Cost minimizing speed Cost at minimizing speed MARINTEK 13

14 Basic Combustion engine and input and output when engine is adjusted to produce power without any focus on emissions Air 8.5 kg/kwh 21% O 2 79% N 2 Fuel 175 g/kwh 97% HC 3% S Lube 1 g/kwh 97% HC 2.5% CA 0.5% S Heat Exhaust gas 75.8% N % O % H 2 O 94.15% in Subtotal 5.2% CO % NOx = 22 g/kwh (Tier 1 =17) 0.15 % SO % HC % CO 5.66 % in Subtotal BC - Black Carbon PM Particles Other 0.19 % in Subtotal Work Source: Input figures and drawing from Man B & W, animation from wikipedia.org 14

15 Options for reducing maritime air emisions Reducing global transport volumes and tonnages Reducing fuel consumption per freight unit transported Replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy wind or solar, or batteries with electricity from renewable sources. Diesel engine modification After treatment of the exhaust gas Exchange the diesel engine with other engine technologies Replacing diesel or heavy fuel oil with cleaner fuels in the diesel engine Alternative fuels and engine concepts 15

16 An approach to reducing the NOx emissions from shipping in Scandinavia The current NOx emissions from shipping in the region Existing incentives to reduce NOx Typical Seagoing vessels in the region Assessment of the Abatement option Conclusions 16

17 Typical vessel types in the Scandinavian & Baltic trades RoRo General Cargo / Container vessel Dry Bulker / tankers RoPax - Ferry Source: Sea Web, Shipbuilder& Shipowners web site 17

18 What are the annual fuel consumption and emissions of these vessels The annual fuel consumption is a function of the operational pattern. The table shows average annual fuel consumption for these vessel types and sizes. (Not exact match) I have calculated the NOx emissions based on engines satisfying Tier 2 requirements the cargo vessels have slow speed engines, the RoPax medium speed engines The SO2 emissions are calculated based on fuel consumption and standard HFO Source: Lindstad et al 2012 Ship type & size No of ships Dwt S p e e d Engine size [kw] Fuel per ship in ton Billion ton miles Gram CO 2 per ton km Genera Cargo 15' General Cargo 10'-15' Dry bulk Handysize 15'-35' TEU - container RoRo 25'-35' RoRo 15'-25' RoRo 5'-15' RoPax 5'-10'

19 Typical seagoing vessels in the region - fuel consumption and NOx and SO 2 emissions RoRo dwt, kw, 19 knots, Engine cost 7.5 MUSD, Total Capex 60 MUSD, Annual fuel 8000 ton, NOx = 600 ton, SO 2 = 250 ton General Cargo / Container vessel dwt, kw, 17 knots, Engine cost 7.5 MUSD, Total Capex 30 MUSD, Annual fuel 8000 ton, NOx = 600 ton, SO 2 = 250 ton Dry Bulker dwt, kw, 14 knots, Engine cost 5 MUSD, Total Capex 20 MUSD, Annual fuel 6000 ton, NOx = 450 ton, SO 2 = 190 ton RoPax - Ferry Dwt > 5000 ton, kw, Engine cost 20 MUSD, Total Capex?, Annual fuel ton, NOx = ton, SO 2 = 950 ton Source: Sea Web, Shipbuilder& Shipowners web site, Consumptions & emissions based on Lindstad et al 2012

20 Fuel characteristics

21 Emissions as a function of abatement option

22 Capex and operational cost as a function of abtatement option

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26 ASSESSMENT OF COST, EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE IMPACT BY NORTHERN SEA ROUTE TRADES VERSUS TRADES THROUGH INDIAN OCEAN AND SUEZ CANAL Haakon Lindstad 1, Ryan M. Bright 2, Anders H. Strømman 2 1 Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute (MARINTEK), Trondheim, Norway 2 Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway Corresponding author: Haakon@marintek.sintef.no

27 Ice cover in March & September

28 GWP20 as a function of fuel

29 Emissions as a function of power outake

30 Emissions as a function of power

31 GWP 20 figures

32 GWP 100 figures