Capital Link's 4th Annual Invest in International Shipping Forum. Dr Hermann J. Klein, Member of Executive Board of GL

Transcription

1 Capital Link's 4th Annual Invest in International Shipping Forum The Added Value of Classification to Financial Institutions & Owners in Today's Capital Markets Dr Hermann J. Klein, Member of Executive Board of GL

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3 No. 3

4 Containerships Total Exposure Type TEUs Approx Value Million USD Average TEU value, cargo USD 80,000 Average TEU value, cont. USD 5,000 TOTAL VALUE EXPOSED Feeder 900 2, m$ m$ m$ m$ Sub Panamax 2, m$ 224 m$ 14 m$ 300 m$ Panamax 5, m$ 400 m$ 25 m$ 500 m$ Post Panamax 7, m$ 600 m$ 37.5 m$ 750 m$ Suezmax 10, m$ 800 m$ 50 m$ 970 m$ Mega Carrier 14, m$ 1,040 m$ 65 m$ 1,300 m$ Excluding: Oil pollution Personal Injury / Death Delay / Loss of Use Bad Will. No. 4

5 Classification the stakeholders safety net Cargo underwriters Marine insurance companies National maritime authorities Charterers Shipowners Banks Shipyards Subcontractors No. 5

6 What are the objectives of class? safety operational reliability environmentally friendly fit for purpose p efficiency optimized maintenance profitability! No. 6

7 How long should it last? No. 7

8 25 years lifetime No. 8

9 Approved Classificational Rules Plan Approval Yard Surveys Rules Adoption Continuous Improvement Set of Plans Annual Surveys Research No. 9

10 Life cycle surveys Ships in service : Periodic inspections Newbuildings: Plan approval Construction supervision Material & Components Classification and ship safety annual intermediate renewal Years No. 10

11 Influence on maintenance Qualification and motivation of crew Maintenance Strategy Trading-area Maintenance friendly construction No. 11

12 Regulatory Pressure No. 12

13 Energy efficiency of shipping Crude oil tanker CO2 emissions related to transport work Source: Presentation MARINTEK, GHG WG1, Juni 2008, Oslo No. 13

14 Noise NO x, SO x, CO 2 CFC, HCFC VOCs (Tanker) Noise Oel Separator Waste water Waste Antifouling Ballast Water No. 14

15 Timeline: environmental regulations NO x, Tier III, ECA 0.1% S, SECA Ballast water * Ship Recycling * CO 2 market measures * CO 2 technical measures * 3.5% S, global NO x Tier I, global NO x Tier II, global Fuel tank protection 1% S, SECA 0.1% S, EU ports review 0.5% S, global *) estimated entry into force No. 15

16 Market Forces No. 16

17 Fuel Oil Prices Heavy fuel oil price [USD per metric ton] % % /08 Max /12/ 08* Mar 10 * Rotterdam No. 17

18 Fuel prices will go up USD / ton Anticipated IFO 380 effective MDO premium fuel costs CO2 for surcharge shipping a look into the future A CO 2 -emission trading may start in Associated costs are based on IPCC reports. In 2020, SO x -limits for fuel globally apply. Diesel quality fuels demand a premium, estimated to be 50% of HFO price Price for HFO will continue to increase in the long run (2.5% per year assumed) No Source: GL research. The analysis excludes inflation effects.

19 Technical Options No. 19

20 No. 20

21 Ship efficiency investment economics better economics better designs better efficiency better designs better production current designs safety level Higher safety operating costs No. 21

22 Efficiency influencing parameters Auxiliary Engines, PG, P Distribution Wind Position Routing Reefers, Cargo Hold Ventilation Wave Height Speed Total Resistance Propeller (Pitch, RPM, fou ling...) Engine Performance Water Depth Ballast Draft / Trim Current Hull condition No. 22

23 The Connecticut Maritime Association Shipping 2010 March 22, 2010 Lines s (incl. bulb bous b bow) Optimization of a container carrier i No. 23

24 Do you want to save 127m US-Dollars? No. 24

25 Lines optimization DoE selected Pareto-Frontiers Each single red cross represents a full hull design and analysis approx in total RT / RT Ba aseline 24 kn, 14 m/14 m 127,000,000 72,000,000 29,500,000 / Baseline 14 m/14 m V/V Baseline No. 25

26 Smart alternatives make a difference Existing Design Concept A Concept B tdw 133,000/165, ,000/197, ,000/197,000 TEU 14,000 14,200 15,000 B m m m C B P B 72.2 MW 22.8 MW 22.8 MW V (85% MCR) 24.0 kn 16.7 kn 16.7 kn Lightship 53,000 t <51,000 t 53,000 t Other parameters (length, Td/Ts, ) fixed No. 26

27 Background Concept A Reduction of main engine The hold is cut out and the same length is inserted in front of engine room Approximate gain: 198 TEU (in-hold) No. 27

28 Background Concept B Widening by one row (gain abt. 794 TEU) Reduction of Main Engine The hold is cut out and the same length is inserted in front of engine room Approximate gain: 198 TEU (in-hold) Total gain incl. Cb-increase: abt. 1,000 TEU No. 28

29 Superior performance Optimization i i of propeller and rudder Optimization of hull and stern form Optimization of scantlings and ballast water Optimization auxiliaries, energy management system Proposal for operational optimization Trim Assistant / monitoring system No. 29

30 Overview comparison Existing Design Design slow Concept A Concept B TEU 14,000 14,000 14,200 15,000 DWT (Td) 133, , , ,000 Designspeed (85% MCR) 24.0 kn 16.7 kn 16.7 kn 16.7 kn Miles/day Cost/day 141,250 86,690 69,500 69,900 No. 30

31 Comparison of designs and speeds Effects "New concepts" vs. existing design Reduced cost Bunker main engine Operating costs (lubes, spares, ) Capital costs (depr., financing) Auxiliary energy Increased capacity (TEU, dwt) per ship Lower speeds: Additional ships needed Cost rate to integrate all economically relevant factors Daily operating costs/(dwt Etmal) No. 31

32 Comparison of TEU-cost rate TEU-cost rate*, US$ Existing Design Existing design at 16.7 kn Concept A % Reduced daily operating costs Increased SFOC Lower speed Smaller engine, used at design speed Reduced investment Increased capacity Concept B Significantly increased TEU capacity Slightly increased investment * Total operating costs/(teu Etmal) 1,000 No. 32

33 What can be done, fast? No. 33

34 No. 34

35 knots oper rational speed, bunker cost, $ No. 35

36 110% Economics of selected container vessels 100% same earnings 90% 80% 70% 60% Cost index 30% less Earning index costs Panamax Panamax (max) Baby Post- BPP plus panamax 8 vessels 8 vessels 8 vessels 10 vessels No. 36

37 110% Economics of selected container vessels 100% same earnings 90% 80% 70% 60% Cost index Earning index Panamax Panamax Baby Post- BPP plus BPP ++ (max) panamax 8 vessels 8 vessels 8 vessels 10 vessels 10 vessels 35% less costs No. 37

38 energy efficient ships: Reduced environmental impact lower costs strong competitiveness No. 38

39 Thank you No. 39