Robert Santurbano, Italinox Vietnam. Vietnam - the new stainless steel tiger

Transcription

1 Robert Santurbano, Italinox Vietnam Vietnam - the new stainless steel tiger June 2012

2 Agenda Introduction ASEAN Vietnam Production Stainless steel producers Consumption Rerollers End-users Stockists Trade barriers

3 Introduction Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) includes 10 countries ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) AFTA-Korea and AFTA-China Free Trade agreements effective 1 January 2010

4 Introduction ASEAN has a population of 600 million as of 2010 large differences within ASEAN 2010 nominal per-capita GDP in Singapore is US$ 50, nominal per-capita GDP in Myanmar is US$ 1,700

5 Introduction Vietnam population has reached 87 million in 2011 (13 th most populous country in the world) estimated per-capita GDP of USD 3,300 in % of the labor force is employed in agriculture annual growth rate during 2000 and 2010 varied from 6 % to 7.5 % during the 1 st half of 2011 inflation accelerated to 23 % pa Vietnam state bank increased interest rates; bank lending rates rose above 20 % pa during Q growth has slowed down to 4 % pa and inflation fell to 12 %

6 Production Stainless steel mills producers of standard widths in cold-rolled from 1,000-mm to 1,500-mm (Posco Vietnam Stainless, Posco Thainox, Bahru Stainless, Jindal Stainless Indonesia) producers of widths in cold-rolled from 500-mm to 700-mm (a.k.a. strip) ASEAN has no melting shop or hot-rolling mill for stainless steel

7 Production Bahru Stainless 1 st cold-rolling mill was commissioned in st annealing and pickling line was commissioned in early 2012 (capacity of 260,000 mt of HR and 180,000 on the same line)

8 Production PT Jindal Stainless Indonesia Maspion, a diversified Indonesian industrial group, sold its stainless steel division to Jindal Group in 2004 the mill produces mainly chrome-manganese (201) and austenitic (304) grades in finish 2B main sales markets are Indonesia and Vietnam (201)

9 Production Posco Thainox green-field plant was completed in 1996 as a joint venture between ArcelorMittal, several Japanese steel producers and a local Thai company in 2004 ArcelorMittal sold its share to the Thai partner, who became the majority shareholder in 2008 Posco became the owner of a 15 % of the shares in September 2011 Posco became the majority shareholder Thainox operates 3 cold-rolling mills, 1 annealing and pickling line (2B) and 1 bright annealing line (BA), producing about 180,000 tons in 2011 in 2011 total imports of cold-rolled stainless steel flat products were 138,000 tons while exports were 66,000

10 Production Posco Vietnam Stainless in 2005 Asia Stainless Company (ASC) started production of stainless steel near Ho Chi Minh City in 2007 ASC became Posco Vietnam Stainless (PVST) after Posco became the owner of 90-% of the shares the mill operates 2 standard cold-rolling mills and 1 precision cold-rolling mill total capacity equals about 100,000 ton per year in BA finish

11 Production Posco Vietnam Stainless phase 2 includes a new cold-rolling mill with an annual capacity of 180,000 ton and an annealing and pickling line (2B finish) size specifications are from 0.4-mm to 3.5-mm and maximum width of 1,524-mm this new mill was commissioned in early 2012 commercial sales will started in March 2012 with ASEAN as the target market

12 Production Inox Hoa Binh project owned by private industrial group Hoa Binh 2 nd -hand cold-rolling mill from Avesta Sheffield product range is in 2B with maximum width of 1,219-mm new annealing and pickling line sourced in China start-up of the mill is delayed due to lack of capital

13 Consumption Rerollers Vietnam has at least 4 major strip re-rollers who produce coils in widths 450-mm to 600-mm in thickness 0.5-mm to 1.5-mm and grades 304 and 201 (some grades have a minimum nickel content of 0.3 %) most of the hot-rolled coils are imported from independent melt-shops in China or from Jindal India

14 Consumption End-users a significant share of all stainless steel in ASEAN goes into the production of stainless steel ornamental tubes typically tube-maker has a slitting line and several TIG-welding lines, that can be imported for about USD 45,000 from a piece from China

15 Consumption End-users main markets for stainless steel water tanks are Vietnam and Thailand (500 liters to 10,000 liters) 304 2B used for top and bottom of water tank, 304 BA used for main body of water tank, most common thicknesses are 0.4-mm and 0.5-mm

16 Consumption End-users Vietnam is a large exporter of cutlery, holloware and small furniture to Japan, Europe and the United States (for instance WMF, IKEA,...)

17 Consumption End-users increasing share of industrial projects that use heavy-gage stainless steel as ho-rolled or cold-rolled (304, 316, 321, 310) Vietnam is an exporter of equipment for breweries such as beer tanks Haiphong shipyard is building small chemical tankers for foreign customers various foreign fabricators produce desalination plants in Vietnam for export to the Middle East

18 Consumption Stockists in Vietnam foreign-invested multi-product service centers such as ThyssenKrupp Materials (stainless steel, carbon steel, die steel, copper, aluminum, abrasion-resistant plates) foreign-invested carbon steel / stainless steel service centers such as SGC (owned by Sumitomo) foreign-invested stainless steel service center such as Uginox owned by Aperam

19 Consumption Stockists in Vietnam most of the stainless steel reaches its final end-users through small, informal traders

20 Trade barriers stainless steel imports between ASEAN countries are not dutiable because of AFTA (Customs Form D) imports of cold-rolled stainless steel into Southeast Asia are dominated by Taiwanese and Chinese producers including Yusco, Tang Eng, Lisco, Tisco, and to a lesser extent Posco Korea Indonesia has a 15-% import duty on cold-rolled coils from most origins Thailand has an import duty on cold-rolled coils with origin Korea, Japan and Taiwan (unless finished goods are re-exported) effective 1 January 2012, Vietnam has a 5-% import duty on cold-rolled stainless steel coils BUT these import duties are mostly irrelevant

21 Trade barriers imports from China are not subject to ASEAN duties effective 1 January 2010 because of AFTA - China agreement (Customs Form E) Taiwan that is mainly affected by the ASEAN import duties (many customers who previously ordered from Yusco have switched to Lisco) in 2011 China produced 12.5 million tons of flat stainless steel products, of which 2.2 million were exported

22 Thank you for your attention