Indian Automotive Industry. An Opportunity
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1 Indian Automotive Industry An Opportunity PRESENTATION BY MR. DEEP KAPURIA CMD, HI-TECH GEARS LTD. TO VDA (Verband der Automobilindustrie), FRANKFURT ON JUNE 16, 2005
2 Agenda India : An Overview
3 Accelerated Growth Real GDP* USD billions 4.2% % 3.0% % % % Even though the growth in was 8.5% Per Capita GDP USD 2.2% % 0.7% % % % CAGR %
4 USD billions Has the potential to become one of the top 5 economies by ,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 Real GDP * India would be the Third largest Economy (after China & US) by 2050 Goldman Sachs Report US Japan 5,000 China 4,000 3,000 Germany 8% 2,000 1,000 France Italy UK 6% Mexico Canada S Korea
5 One of the largest markets for most consumer goods TV sales 11.5 Mobile handset sales rank: rank: rank: rank: 2 Two wheeler sales Million units rank: rank: 2
6 Indian Auto Industry Largest Three Wheeler Market in the World 2 nd Largest Two Wheeler Market in the World 4 th Largest Passenger Vehicle Market in Asia 4 th Largest Tractor Market in the World 5 th Largest Commercial Vehicle Market in the World
7 Indian demographics are transitioning for the better. The classes Rich (Above Rs.2,15,000) Mapping India s income classes million 3 million 6 million Consuming (Rs. 45,000-2,15000) 29 million 66 million 75 million Climbers (Rs.22,000 45,000) 48 million 66 million 78million Aspirants (Rs.16,000 22,000) Destitutes (Less than Rs.16,000) 48 million 32 million 32 million 24 million 33 million 17 million Source: The Marketing Whitebook, by Business World
8 Range of Vehicles Made In India Indian Automobile Industry Indian Automobile Industry Light Pass. Vehicles Light Pass. Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Tractors Two Wheelers Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Three Wheelers PCs / MUVs / SUVs PCs / MUVs / SUVs LCV s / M&HCVs/ Buses LCV s / M&HCVs/ Buses Farm/ Earthmoving & Construction Euipments Motorcycles/ Scooters/ Mopeds Passenger Carriers / Goods Carriers
9 Automotive Clusters N W S E NORTH EAST WEST SOUTH
10 Coming Soon...
11 Relative Car Density to GDP Car Den > 400 Italy Australia Canada Germany Japan USA 400 France UK 300 Chile Korea Brazil 200 Russia 100 Mexico Car Den < 200 Indonesia Thailand 0 China 0 India Phillipines Per Capita GDP US$ Car per '000 Source: Statistical year book and Wards PARC, WorldBank
12 Size of Indian Auto Industry : 04~05 Passenger.Cars 14.5 % Three Wheelers 4.5 % Commercial Vehicles 4% Two Wheelers 77% Production Volume : 8.46 Million Vehicles India ~ 2 nd Largest Producer of Motorcycles in the world (5.2 Mln) after China which has a production volume of 12 Mln Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
13 Pass. Vehicle Production (Nos in 000) 3,000 2,500 2,000 PROJECTED CAGR GROWTH RATES MUV s = 6% Pass Cars = 11% 1,500 Estimated to touch 2 million by million by , Segment Growth % 03~04 04~ ~ 95 95~ 96 96~ 97 97~ 98 98~ 99 99~ 00 00~ 01 01~ 02 02~ 03 03~ 04 04~ 05 09~ 10 14~ 15 MUV s 28.1% 24% MUV 's Pass Cars 38.5% 22% Pass Cars Source: McKinsey Report
14 The Future Growth Drivers Higher GDP growth GROWTH DRIVERS India s huge geographic spread Mass Transport System a?? Increasing Road Development, Golden Quadrilateral Increasing disposable income with the service sector Cheaper (declining interest rates) & easier finance schemes Replacement of aging four wheelers Graduating from Two wheeler to Four wheeler Increasing dispensable income of rural agri sector Growing Concept of Second Vehicle in Urban Areas Two Wheeler story could be repeated in the Cars Segment
15 Auto Component Industry - Vital Statistics Output ( $ Mln.) 4,470 5,430 6,730 8,700 Exports ( $ Mln.) ,020 1,400 * Investment ($ Mln) 2,300 2,645 3,100 3,950 Export Share to Output 13% 14% 15% 16% * Component embedded in Exported Vehicles : $ 1,200 Mln.
16 Auto Component Production (in $ Mln) 16.48% CAGR 40,000 35,000 30,000 Possible level of Growth : USD 33 ~ 40 Billion by ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ~98 98~99 99~2K 00~01 01~02 02~03 03~04 04~05 09~10 14~15 Comp Prdn 3,008 3,249 3,894 3,965 4,470 5,430 6,730 8,700 18,654 40,000 Growth Rate (2K4~2K5) = 30% (ESTIMATED) Growth Rate (2K3~2K4) = 24%
17 Component Production Range Electrical Parts 9% Body & Chassis 12% Drive Transmission & Steering Parts 19% Others 7% Suspension & Braking Parts 12% Engine Parts 31% Equipments 10%
18 Manufacturing Migration to Low Cost Countries Asia Anticipate Ongoing Migration From High to Low Cost Countries Growth of Industrial (1) Production Manufacturing Compensation $/Hr Indonesia Hungary China India Mexico Brazil Malayasia Russia Poland Thailand Taiwan Korea Spain Italy U K Canada France Japan High cost countries (HCC) Avg. industrial GD growth : 2.8% USA Germany Medium cost countries (MCC) Avg. industrial GD growth : 4.8% Low cost countries( LCC) Avg. industrial GD growth : 6.5% Avg manufacturing compensation $ 1.1/hr Avg manufacturing compensation $ 8.9/hr (1) GDP excluding agriculture & services Manufacturing Compensation 2002 ($/hour) Avg manufacturing compensation $ 20/hr = Industrial (1) GDP $ 500B
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