Forecast tables. 1 Summary Items. 2 Summary Items continued. 3 GDP Components (1995 prices) 4 GDP Components (Annual Percentage Change)

Transcription

1 Table Title 1 Summary Items 2 Summary Items continued 3 GDP Components (1995 prices) 4 GDP Components (Annual Percentage Change) 4(a) GDP Components (Q-on-Q Annual Percentage Change) 5 Households Sector Income and Expenditure 6 Households Sector Income and Expenditure (Annual Percentage Change) 7 Trade and Balance of Payments 8 Trade and Balance of Payments (Annual Percentage Change) 9 Cross Exchange Rates 10 Labour Market Indicators (Thousands) 11 Labour Market Indicators (Annual Percentage Change) 12 Company Sector and Supply Side 13 Company Sector and Supply Side (Annual Percentage Change) 14 Inflation Indicators 15 Government Finances ( billion) 16 Government Finances (Annual Percentage Changes) 17 Public Finances ( billion) 65 Forecast tables

2 18 Households Sector Financial Assets ( billion) 19 Households Sector Financial Assets (Annual Percentage Changes) 20 Households Sector Financial Liabilities ( billion) 21 Households Sector Financial Liabilities (Annual Percentage Changes) 22 Households Sector Net Financial Wealth and the Money Supply ( billion) 23 Households Sector Net Financial Wealth and the Money Supply (Annual Percentage Changes) 24 The Housing Market 25 The Housing Market (Annual Percentage Changes) 26 The Manufacturing Sector 27 The Manufacturing Sector (Annual Percentage Changes) Forecast tables 66

3 TABLE 1: Summary Items Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise specified Household Real Savings Real Industrial Unemploy- Average Whole Competit- Producer Headline RPI consumer households' ratio GDP production ment earnings economy iveness prices(ex. RPI excl. expenditure disposable (%) rate product- (1995=100) food,drink mortgage income (%) ivity tob. & petr.) payments (C) (PEDY) (PESR) (GDP) (IP) (UP) (ER) (GDP/ET) (WCR) (PPI) (CPI) (CPIX) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

4 TABLE 2: Summary Items Trade Current Current Government Government Short-TermLong-Term Real Real Dollar Euros Effective balance account account financial financial interest interest short-term long-term per per rate (pound bn) (pound bn) (% of GDP) balance balance rate rate interest interest pound pound (1990=100) (pound bn) (% of GDP) rate rate (BVI/1000) (BCU/1000) (BCU*100 (GB/1000) (GB*100 (RSH) (RLG) (Note 1) (Note 1) (RXD) (RXEURO) (RX) /GDP!) /GDP!) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Note 1 : REAL INTEREST RATES = Nominal interest rate (RSH or RLG) - % change in CPI 68

5 TABLE 3: Gross Domestic Product and its Components Billion Pounds Prices Final Consumption Gross Capital Formation --- Domestic Total Total Statistical GDP at Households Non-Profit General Gross Changes Acquisit- demand exports imports discrepancy market institutions government fixed in ions less prices investment inventoriesdisposal of valuables (C) (CNPI) (GC) (IF) (IS) (VALAD) (DOMD) (X) (M) (SD) (GDP) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

6 Table 4 Gross Domestic Product and its Components Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise specified Final Consumption Gross Capital Formation Domestic Total Total GDP at Households Non-Profit General Gross Changes Acquisitions demand exports imports market Institutions Government fixed in less disposal prices investment inventories of valuables (% of GDP) (C) (CNPI) (GC) (IF) (IS) (VALAD) (DOMD) (X) (M) (GDP) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

7 TABLE 4: Gross Domestic Product and its Components Quarter on quarter annualised percentage changes, unless otherwise specified Final Consumption Gross Capital Formation Domestic Total Total GDP at Households Non-Profit General Gross Changes Acquisitions demand exports imports market institutions government fixed in less disposal Prices investment inventories of valuables (% of GDP) (C) (CNPI) (GC) (IF) (IS) (VALAD) (DOMD) (X) (M) (GDP) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

8 TABLE 5: Households' Sector Income and Expenditure Billion pounds, unless otherwise specified Wages Employers' Dividend Government Other Income Social Disposable Real Households' Savings Financial and pension and net transfers income tax security income disposable consumer ratio balance salaries contrib- interest contrib- income expenditure (%) (% of utions receipts utions 1995 prices 1995 prices income) (PEWFP (PEOCR (PEDIV+PENIR) (GCGPE/ (Note 6) (TY/1000) (TSS/1000) (PEDY! (PEDY (C/1000) (PESR) (PENAF*100 /1000) /1000) / ) /1000) /1000) /PEDY!) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Note 6 : OTHER INCOME = (PEDY! - PEWFP - PEOCR - GCGPE - PEDIV- PENIR + TY + TSS) /

9 TABLE 6: Households' Sector Income and Expenditure Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise specified Wages Employers' Dividend Government Other Income Social Disposable Real Households' Savings Financial and pension and net transfers income tax security income disposable consumer ratio balance salaries contrib- interest contrib- income expenditure (Period (Period utions receipts utions 1995 prices 1995 prices diff.) diff.) (PEWFP) (PEOCR) (PEDIV+ (GCGPE) (Note 6) (TY) (TSS) (PEDY!) (PEDY) (C) (PESR) (PENAF*100 PENIR) /PEDY!) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Note 6 : OTHER INCOME = (PEDY! - PEWFP - PEOCR - GCGPE - PEDIV- PENIR + TY + TSS) /

10 TABLE 7: Trade and Balance of Payments Billion pounds 1995 prices Export Volumes Import Volumes Export Import Billion Pounds Fuel Other Services Fuel Other Services Prices Prices Visible IPD Net Services Current goods goods (g&s) (g&s) balance transfers balance account (XFU) (XGNF (XS (MFU (MGNF (MS (BVI (NIPD! (NETR (XS!-MS! (BCU /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) (PX) (PM) /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

11 TABLE 8: Trade and Balance of payments Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise specified Export Volumes Import Volumes Export Import % of GDP Fuel Other Services Fuel Other Services prices prices Visible IPD Net Services Current goods goods (g&s) (g&s) balance transfers balance account (XFU) (XGNF) (XS) (MFU) (MGNF) (MS) (PX) (PM) (BVI*100 (NIPD! (NETR*100 (XS!-MS!) (BCU*100 /GDP!) *100/GDP!) /GDP!) *100/GDP! /GDP!) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

12 Table 9 Cross Exchange Rates Foreign currency units per local currency unit USA Euro Japan Germany France Italy Canada Sweden Switzerland Netherlands Spain Dollar Sterling Yen D-Mark Franc Lire Dollars Kroner Franc Guilder Peseta effective I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Note : Calculated using RXD for each country 76

13 Table 10 Labour Market Indicators 000's unless otherwise specified Employees Self- Total Claimant Claimant ILO ILO Labour Working Particip- NAIRU in employ- employ- unemploy- unemploy- unemploy- unemploy- supply popul- ation (%) employment ment ment ment ment ment ment ation ratio rate (%) rate (%) (EE) (ES) (ET) (U) (UP) (UILO) (UPILO) (LS) (POPW) (100*LS/POPW) (NAIRU) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

14 Table 11 Labour Market Indicators Annual percent changes, unless otherwise specified Employees Self- Total Claimant Claimant ILO ILO Labour Working Participation NAIRU Productin employ- employ- unemploy- unemploy- unemploy- Unemploy- supply popul- ratio (%) ivity employment ment ment ment ment ment ment ation rate (%) rate (%) (EE) (ES) (ET) (U) (UP) (UILO) (UPILO) (LS) (POPW) (100*LS/POPW) (NAIRU) (100*GDP/ET) (abs diff) (abs diff) (abs diff) (abs diff) (abs diff) (abs diff) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

15 Table 12 Company Sector and Supply Side Billion pounds 1995 prices, unless otherwise specified Business Dwellings General Total Capital Potential Output Capacity Profit Profits Profits Stockinvestment investment gov't investment stock output gap utili- margins as a % market investment (%) sation (1995=100) of GDP index rate (IPNR (IPRD (GI (IF (K (YHAT (%) (100*PPI (COGTP (100*COGTP) /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) (CUMOD) (CU) /TCOST) /1000) /GDP! (PSH) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

16 Table 13 Company Sector and Supply Side Annual percent changes, unless otherwise specified Business Dwellings General Total Capital Potential Output Capacity Profit Profits Profits Stockinvestment investment gov't investment stock output gap utili- margins as a % market investment (%) sation of GDP index rate (%) (100*PPI (100*COGTP) (IPNR) (IPRD) (GI) (IF) (K) (YHAT) (CUMOD) (CU) /TCOST) (COGTP) /GDP! (PSH) (abs diff) (abs diff) (abs diff) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

17 Table 14 Inflation Indicators Annual percent changes, unless otherwise specified Average Unit Labour Costs GDP GDP Producer Consumer Consumers' Govt Investment Non-Fuel Non-Fuel earnings whole manu- deflator deflator prices prices expend- consump- deflator goods goods economy facturing (basic (market iture tion deflator deflator prices) prices) deflator deflator exports imports (ER) (WC) (WCMF) (PGDP) (PGDPMP) (PPI) (CPI) (PC) (PGC) (PIF) (PXGNF) (PMGNF) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

18 Table 15 Government Finances Billion pounds Receipts Expenditure General Gross Net Income Expend- Social Other Total Consumption Investment Transfers Other Total Government Debt Debt Tax Iture Security To Balance Tax Contri- (GREV- Persons (GEXP-GC!- Butions TY-TX 0.01*PIF*GI (TY (TX (TP+TSS) -TP-TSS) (GREV (GC! (0.01*PIF*GI) (GCGPE -GCGPE) (GEXP (GB (GGDBT (GNDBT /1000) /1000) /1000 /1000 /1000) /1000) /1000 /1000) /1000 /1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) Years Beginning Q I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

19 Table 16 Government Finances Annual percent changes, unless otherwise specified Receipts Expenditure General Debt-Gdp Debt-Gdp Income Expend- Social Other Total Consumption Investment Transfers Other Total Government Ratio Ratio Tax iture Security To Balance Gross Net Tax Contri- Persons as a % Butions (GREV- (GEXP-GC!- of GDP (GGDBT (GNDBT TY-TX 0.01*PIF*GI (GB*100 *100 *100 (TY) (TX) (TP+TSS) -TP-TSS) (GREV) (GC!) (0.01*PIF*GI) (GCGPE) -GCGPE) (GEXP) /GDP!) /GDP!) /GDP!) Years Beginning Q I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

20 Table 17 Public Finances Billion pounds, unless otherwise specified -- General Govt Expenditure ---- Privatisation Proceeds --- General Govt Receipts PublicSector --- Net Borrowing --- PSBR (Note 1) PSBR Excl Privatisation Pounds % of GDP Pounds % of GDP Pounds % of Pounds % of GDP Proceeds Billion Billion Billion GDP Billion Pds Bn % of GDP ((GEXP+GTSEC)/ (-GTSEC) (GREV/ (-(GB+PCBR) (PSBR ((PSBR-GTSEC) 1000) 1000) /1000) /1000) /1000) Years Beginning Q I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Note 1 : Public Sector Net Cash Requirement 84