Finally Falling: Unemployment Duration

Transcription

1 July 1998 Finally Falling: Unemployment Duration The median duration of unemployment measures one facet of the severity of unemployment. The median is the point that splits the distribution of unemployment duration in half. For example, in May 1998, half of all unemployed individuals had been without a job for less than 5.9 weeks and half had been without a job for more than 5.9 weeks. The chart indicates the behavior of the unemployment rate and the duration of unemployment over the past 30 years. The unemployment rate exhibits a cyclical pattern rising during economic contractions and falling during expansions. The median duration of unemployment has closely followed the path of the unemployment rate throughout most of this period. During the current expansion, however, duration has shown a clear break from this pattern. Although the unemployment rate has been on a downward trend since it peaked at 7.8 percent in June 1992, the median duration of unemployment had remained stuck at about eight weeks. Equally striking is the sharp drop in the median duration of unemployment that has occurred since November 1997 falling from 7.8 weeks to 5.9 weeks. Why didn t the duration of unemployment fall in conjunction with the decline in the unemployment rate from m id-1992 through the end of 1997? What accounts for the subsequent drop in duration? The answers to these questions can be found by examining more detailed statistics on the duration of unemployment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data on the number of individuals who have been unemployed for less than five weeks, five to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 or more weeks. When the economy is expanding, it becomes easier to find a job, and when the economy is contracting, it takes longer to find a job. Thus, the percentage of the unemployed who have been without jobs for less than five weeks generally falls during a recession and rises during an expansion, while the percentage of the unemployed who have been out of work for 15 weeks or more follows the opposite pattern. During most of the current expansion, the longterm unemployed as a percentage of total unemployment showed only a slight downward trend, causing the stickiness in the duration of unemployment. In recent months, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen, leading to the sharp drop in the median duration of unemployment. The decline in the duration of unemployment does not necessarily imply that the long-term unemployed are finding jobs. It is possible that an increasing number of these job seekers have become discouraged and have dropped out of the labor force. However, the number of individuals who are not in the labor force because of discouragement over their job prospects has fallen over the past year. Thus, the data provide some support for the notion that the longer-term unemployed are finding jobs. Percent Unemployment Indicators -Patricia S. Pollard Seasonally adjusted monthly data, January 1969 to May 1998 S i Recession Weeks 14 Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System

2 Tabi eofcon ten ts Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that were current on June 30, Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. refers to simple percent changes. refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is: 100 x H For monthly data replace 4 with All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the. For more information on data, please call (314) Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office,, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO or by calling (314) or (314) Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) or Internet World Wide Web server at

3 Nat iona I Economic Trends Real GDP Growth at annual rate Consumer Price Index _ Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent I I 1. l l l l 1 I I I,III l l I ' 1 1 l l l l ~ Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force

4 4 tiationaìeconom ictrends Real Gross Domestic Product Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers (NAPM) Indexes Index 74 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours «««; Real Change in Business Inventories Percent of GDP 2 -. r \ r T... I...T...I... T...I... T

5 National Econom ici tends Real Final Sales and GDP at annual rate 6 " GDP (bar) Rnal Sales Real GDP Revisions at annual rate 8-1 Advance Y ///7F7A Final 6 Prelimlnary Annual Revision :1 97:2 97:3 97:4 98:1 Industrial Production and NAPM Index industrial Production Index 68 Nominal Gross Domestic Product at annual rate Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Hours T Real Change In Business Inventories Billions of 1992 dollars Inventory-Sales Ratio Manufacturing and trade [ 5

6 6 NationalEconomicTrends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth at annual rate Q2 96Q3 96Q Q2 97Q3 97Q4 98Q1 Contributions to Real GD IP Growth Rate Consumption Exports Imports Inventories 1996 V //A Government Real GDP Investment nd 3rd I 1st 2nd 5F " IT 1st Real GDP , I Final Sales ! Change in Inventory Consumption Fixed Investment N onresidential Residential I Government Federal State an d Local Net Exports Exports i Im ports ! Residual ! ! 0.1 7

7 NationalEconomicTrends interest Rates Percent Treasury Yield Curve Percent May May 98 Week Ending: 06/26/ m 1y 2y 5y 7y ioy 30y Standard and Poor s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends XSX3B

8 8 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Index Consumer Price Index 15 - m i I I I I I I I " " ì " " " " " ' I I I I I I I i t I I I I I! I Producer Price index, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour rnmmm

9 National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index at annual rate Crude Oil Price Dollars per barrel ' Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index at annual rate Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Excl. Food & Energy Unit Labor Cost at annual rate Nonfarm Manufacturing 1996 T 1997 f 1998 Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour at annual rate Benefits pensation

10 10 National EconomicTrends Employment Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population Labor Force/Population - 64 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force 4.50 Weeks

11 HationalEconomicTrends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands 600 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands _ Change in Household Employment Thousands Labor Force and Population r Unemployment Rate Percent Help-Wanted Advertising Index Percent "... V 6.5 / \ H e lp -wanted J Unemployment Rate 65 - <=*>. \ a - v U ~i...i...i...i...i...i r

12 12 National EconomicTrends Real Disposable Income, quarterly data mg... ill! r }...r...r. i... i...r ~... i... I i...t...i...i...i...i...i... i... " T... i...i...i...t...i...i...i...i Real Consumption Retail Sales of quarterly average Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income Percent Percent

13 National EconomicTrends Real Disposable Income it il illll.ilj i H Personal Saving Rate Percent T 2 l f f 1997 f 1998 Real Consumption Real Consumption [ Retail Sales 2 - Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Millions of vehicles, annual rate Consumer Sentiment (II. of Michigan) Index 120 Real Durables Consumption I...j

14 14 NationatEconomicTrends Real Investment Percent of GDP Real Private Fixed Investment Real Presidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment Real Residential Investment

15 National EconomicTrends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP 24 Percent of GDP r Real Private Fixed Investment at annual rate Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, excluding aircraft A Equipment Investment 10-0 V \ y Orders -10 Real Equipment Investment at annual rate r... T...T... T...I...I... I Real Nonresidential Investment at annual rate Real Residential Investment at annual rate Housing Starts Millions, annual rate r... j...t... I ' 15

16 16 National E conom icirends Govt. Consumption and Investment Billions of 1992 dollars 1400 Government Receipts and Outlays Percent of GDP Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Calendar Years Unified Budget Fiscal Years Receipts State and Local Expenditures Surplus or De!icit(-) Receipts Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficitf-) Receipts Federal Outlays Surplus or Deficit!-)

17 National EconomicTrends Federal Debt Percent of GDP Federal Deficit Percent of GDP Change in Federal Debt Percent of GDP 8 - w...m...mm Total Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Billions of dollars, fiscal years 500 i i :...m Held by PublicN Excl. Interest payments u I I I I I T T T T T T T Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year, excluding agency-issued debt Held by Held by Public Held by Private Investors Total Agencies Federal Foreign and Public Debt and Trusts Total Reserve Banks Total International March June S e p te m b e r D ecem b er M arch June S e p te m b e r D ecem b er M arch June S e p te m b e r D ecem b er M arch

18 18 National EconomicTrends Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars Exchange Rates Index, March x (Deutsche markajss) Yen/US$ Goods Export Shares, 1997 Goods Import Shares, 1997 Mexico All Other 32.36% All Other 36.58% Mexico Canada 22.34% Other OECD 13.83% Canada 19.17% Other OECD 9.60% 2.35% 9.65% Germany 3.60% France UK 2.35% 5.36% Japan 13.87% UK 3.72% Germany 4.92%

19 National EconomicTrends Trade Balance Billions of dollars 0 Goods Trade Current Account Balance Billions of dollars 0 Services Trade Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners at annual rate United Kingdom 8-19

20 20 NationalEconom ictrends Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Percent Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing, annual data * r...»...

21 tiationaleconom ictrends Nonfarm Output per Hour at annual rate Manufacturing Output per Hour at annual rate T - 2 Selected Component Shares of National Income 5 i...t r...I... :...I r r... " ' " f...t r Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) 80 - * m

22 22 HationaìEconom ictrends Billions of $ Nominal GDP rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Real GDP rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Final Sales Annua Year rate ago Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago Billions of 1992 $ Consumption rate ago Durables Consumption Billions of 1992 $ rate ago Private Fu(ed Investment Billions of 1992 $ rate ago Nonreside ntial Investment Billions of 1992 $ rate ago

23 National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Index rate ago Employment Cost Index Index rate ago Index ECI: Wages rate ago Index ECI: Benefits rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Exports rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Imports rate ago Nonfarm Output per Hour Index rate ago Nonfarm Compensation/Hr Index rate ago

24 24 National EconomicTrends Thousands Household Survev Emolovment Nonfarm Pavroll Emolovment Nonfarm Aaareoate Hours Change rate ago Thousands Change rate ago Index Monthly rate Annual rate Year ago May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

25 NationalEconom ictrends Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars Retail Sales Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Index Industrial Production Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Treasury Yields 3-mo 10-y r May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

26 26 National EconomicTrends Consumer Price Index wnsumer rnceinue* less Food and Energy rroaucer rnce maex Finished Goods Index Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Year to date Index Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Year to date Index Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate Year ago May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

27 National EconomicTrends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. The Purchasing Managers Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufacturing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - Xt.i)IGDP,.i)A- 1], The sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail in the table. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and Poor s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in January 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term comparisons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A. Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIP As, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.- owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, total factor productivity United States Department o f Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, consumer debt service The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27

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