RAILWAY TRACK SYSTEMS GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS. Installed Base, Projects, Forecasts, Suppliers

Transcription

1 2017 RAILWAY TRACK SYSTEMS GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Installed Base, Projects, Forecasts, Suppliers

2 RAILWAY TRACK SYSTEMS GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Installed Base, Projects, Forecasts, Suppliers SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy in the field of transport technology and economics. Based on close connections to the rail industry, our consultants expertise in a wide range of specialist fields, an extensive network of international experts, and powerful homemade tools for data logging, analysis and evaluation, we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the rail and logistics sectors. Growing Asian influence and rather restrained activities on the global commodity markets as well as by public authorities are challenging market development for rail infrastructure, notably track systems. Asian players have increased their influence both in their domestic and in other regions, realising projects as well as acquiring local suppliers. With several major schemes recently completes and some others still under discussion, expansion and modernisation of the networks is increasingly focusing on Asia as well. These trends challenge the traditional Western positions as technology and quality leaders. Answering this challenge appropriately will require deliberate orientation on the global track system markets. In concrete terms, the study includes: Present status and expected developments of population, economy, rail transport performance, networks, drivers of the market, their relevance and 5-year-trends, and market volumes in 8 market regions as well as, more precisely, in 24 core markets Breakdown of the current market volumes and market development by OEM business (new development, upgrade) and after sales business (renewal, maintenance), by high-speed rail, conventional railway, metro and light rail transit, and by products (rails, switches/turnouts and crossings, sleepers/crossties, rail fastenings, slab track / ballastless track, ballast, other permanent way products) and services (installation and planning) Important current and future infrastruct ure (new development and upgrade) projects. The results are based on SCI Verkehr s proven and continuously refined business intelligence infrastructure, including the comprehensive SCI DATABASE as well as a sophisticated methodology of information processing combining external and internal expertise, experience, and technical skills. Their compilation forms a cohesive and meaningful overview of the market for railway track systems today and in the next five years. The study is available in English language from December Your contact: Ann Kathrin Arntz Ahmed Yasin Phone Phone Fax Fax a.arntz@sci.de a.yasin@sci.de Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 2

3 CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary: Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends General Findings Network Development (Installed Base) Market Development Objective of the Study and Delimitation of the Railway Market Objective of the Market Analysis Delimitation of the Rail Market Market Analysis Methodology SCI Forecasting Tool Railway Infrastructure/ System Technology Forecast After-Sales Market Forecast Analysis of Drivers in the Railway Industries Market Products and Services, Manufacturers and Market Shares Rails Switches/Turnouts and Crossings Sleepers/Crossties Rail Fastenings Slab Track / Ballastless Track Ballast Other Permanent Way Products Installation Planning The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Africa and in the Middle East Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development by Subregion Core Markets The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Asia Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development by Subregion Core Markets Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 3

4 7 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Australia and the Pacific Region Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development Core Market Australia The Markets for Railway Track Systems in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development by Subregion Core Markets The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Eastern Europe Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development by Subregion Core Markets The Markets for Railway Track Systems in North America Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development by Subregion Core Markets The Markets for Railway Track Systems in South and Central America Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development by Subregion Core Markets The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Western Europe Market Environment Market Drivers Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development by Subregion Core Markets The study includes 247 pages, 151 figures and 94 tables. Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 4

5 Extract of Selected Contents After completion of several major projects, installed base and market volume are to grow slowly. The largest regional market is Western Europe (followed by Asia and North America). In the transport modes of high speed rail and metro, market growth is partly substantially higher than in conventional railways and light rail transit. Holding 95% of the installed base and four fifths of the market volume, however, conventional railway determines the overall market growth. World Market Network Length by Market Region [1,000 route-km] 1,500 1, Africa / Middle East Asia Australia / Pacific CIS Eastern Europe North America South and Central America Western Europe Figure 3: World Market Network Length by Market Region World Market Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and 2022 [EUR billion] x.x% p.a. +x.x% p.a. +x.x% p.a. 15 +x.x% p.a. +x.x% p.a High Speed Rail Conventional Railway Metro Light Rail Transit Figure 4: World Market Average Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 5

6 Market Region (Alphabetical Order) Average Market Volume 2017 [EUR million] CAGR [%] Africa / Middle East xx +x.x Asia xx +x.x Australia / Pacific xx +x.x Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) xx +x.x Eastern Europe xx +x.x North America xx +x.x South and Central America xx +x.x Western Europe xx +x.x Total xx +x.x Monetary values rounded to EUR 10 million. Table 1: World Market Market Regions Switches/Turnouts and Crossings Market Volume and Market Development by Region Average Demand Average Market Volume CAGR 2017 [units p.a.] 2017 [EUR million p.a.] 2022 [EUR million p.a.] [%] Africa / Middle East xx xx xx +x.x Asia xx xx xx +x.x Australia / Pacific xx xx xx +x.x CIS xx xx xx +x.x Eastern Europe xx xx xx +x.x North America xx xx xx +x.x South and Central America xx xx xx +x.x Western Europe xx xx xx +x.x Total xx xx xx +x.x Demand rounded to 10 units. Monetary values rounded to EUR 10 million. Table 9: Switches/Turnouts and Crossings Average Market Volume 2017 and Market Development by Region Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 6

7 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Subregions: Core Markets: Asian CIS European CIS Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Core Markets Asian CIS (rest) European CIS (rest) Market Volume and Market Development by Product/Service Group Average Market Volume 2017 [EUR million p.a.] CAGR [%] Rails xx +x.x Switches/Turnouts and Crossings xx +x.x Sleepers/Crossties xx +x.x Rail Fastenings xx +x.x Slab Track xx +x.x Ballast xx +x.x Other Permanent Way Products xx +x.x Installation xx +x.x Planning xx +x.x by Transport Mode High-Speed Rail (HSR) xx +x.x Conventional Railway (CR) xx +x.x Metro (M) xx +x.x Light Rail Transit (LRT) xx +x.x by Investment Target New Development and Upgrade (OEM) xx +x.x Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales) xx +x.x Total xx +x.x Values rounded to 10 million. Table 47: CIS Track System Market Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 7

8 Czech Republic Region: Eastern Europe Subregion: Central Eastern Europe Socio-Economic Indicators Territory xx km 2 Population 2016 xx million Population Density 2016 xx inh./ km 2 Population Growth Level of Urbanisation 2016 xx % Credit Rating 2016 Ease of Doing Business Rank 2016 xx % p.a. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Prices 2016 USD xx billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in PPP 2016 USD xx billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita in PPP 2016 Int.-USD xx GDP Growth (constant prices) Inflation Rate 2016 xx % Rail Network Data HSR CR M LRT Total xx xx xx % p.a. Density 2017 (All Rail Transport) Network Length [route-km] xx xx xx xx xx xx km/100 km 2 CAGR [%] +x.x +x.x +x.x +x.x +x.x Rail Transport Data Mainline Passenger Mainline Freight Urban Rail Transport Performance 2016 xx million pkm xx million tkm xx million pkm CAGR x.x % +x.x % +x.x % Modal Share +x.x % +x.x % Market Volume and Market Development by Transport Mode Average Market Volume 2017 [EUR million p.a.] CAGR [%] High-Speed Rail (HSR) xx +x.x Conventional Railway (CR) xx +x.x Metro (M) xx +x.x Light Rail Transit (LRT) xx +x.x by Investment Target New Development and Upgrade (OEM) xx +x.x Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales) xx +x.x Total xx +x.x Monetary values rounded to EUR 10 million. Table 60: Czech Republic Socio-Economic Indicators, Rail Networks and Track System Market Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 8

9 Czech Republic Average Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and 2022 [EUR million] 2022 x.x% p.a. x.x% p.a. x.x% p.a xx xx Conventional Railway Metro Light Rail Transit Figure 107: Czech Republic Average Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and 2022 Poland Average Market Volume by Investment Target 2017 and 2022 [EUR million] 900 xx x.x% p.a. 600 xx x.x% p.a. 300 xx x.x% p.a New Development and Upgrade Renewal Maintenance Figure 111: Poland Average Market Volume by Investment Target 2017 and 2022 Canada Shares of the Groups of Products and Services in the Average Market Volume 2017 Planning Rails Installation Switches / Turnouts and Crossings Sleepers / Crossties Total: EUR xx million Other Permanent Way Products Ballast Rail Fastenings Slab Track / Ballastless Track Figure 121: Canada Average Market Volume 2017 by Group of Products and Services Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 9

10 Domestic Manufacturers and Suppliers to the Market Besides Western Europe, Russia, and China, the USA are a traditional focal point of the global railway infrastructure manufacturing industry. Similar to Russia (but not to the same extent), indigenious development paths have led to a proprietary range of products installed and technologies used. Two rolling mills located in Pueblo, Colorado (owned by Evraz) and Steelton, Pennsylvania (owned by ArcelorMittal) supply rails to the market. Cleveland Track Materials (subsidiary of Vossloh) manufactures turnouts. Project Transport Mode New Route [km] Upgrade [km] Project Invest [EUR mn] Start of Construction Completion LRT Bordeaux: Line D LRT LRT Paris: Tram-Train Evry-Massy (Tram Express Sud)+E723 LRT LRT Montpellier: Line 5 Clapier Rond-Point Paul Fajon LRT Nantes: Line 4 Anne de Bretagne Bridge Rezé LRT LRT HSR = High Speed Rail; CR = Conventional Railway; M = Metro; LRT = Light Rail Transit Data above partly estimated Table 86: France Important Infrastructure Projects Railway Track Systems Global Market Trends 10

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