GERMANY: GATEWAY TO AUTONOMOUS CAR REVOLUTION

Transcription

1 GERMANY: GATEWAY TO AUTONOMOUS CAR REVOLUTION OKTOBER, Stefan Di Bitonto Senior Manager Investor Consulting Transportation Technology

2 Outline 1. Executive Summary a) The Industry in numbers b) The Premium Segment 2. Market Trends a) Overview of Maket Trends b) Disruptors in Automotive Industry c) Connected Car Technologies 3. GTAI Investor Support a) Who we are b) What we do Germany Trade & Invest 2

3 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Germany Trade & Invest 3

4 Leading Provider of Automotive Technology The world s automotive manufacturing and innovation hub EUR 404 billion turnover Largest Industry in Germany Over 40 percent of premium car production One in five cars worldwide carries a German brand R&D (internal) investments (2014, in billion ) Automotive Industry Remaining Industry Sectors 21 of top 100 supplier companies are German Europe s number one automotive market 30 percent of all manufactured passenger cars (5.7 million) 20 percent of all new car registrations (3.04 million) 41 automobile assembly and engine production plants 100,000 of the total 792,500 employees work in R&D Industry R&D expenditures reached EUR 19.7 billion Source: Germany Trade and Invest Research (2015); ACEA (2015); VDA (2015) Germany Trade & Invest 4

5 Total Turnover in the Automotive Industry Germany s automotive industry turnovers exceeded 400 billion EUR Turnover of the German Automotive Industry in Germany New Peak in 2015 (in billion EUR) Total turnover of EUR billion (+10% to 2014) High export share: EUR billion generated in foreign markets (+11%) % of the industry s turnover (EUR billion) is generated by the OEM Turnover in Germany Turnover through exports Source: VDA (2016) Germany Trade & Invest 5

6 Germany s Automotive Market Size Germany is Europe s largest automotive market Passenger car production in Europe 2015 (in million units) Passenger car registrations in Europe 2015 (in million units) ,7 2,2 1,6 1,6 1,3 1,0 0,7 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,2 0, ,2 2,6 1,9 1,6 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 Increase of passenger car production numbers in Germany in 2015: +2.1% Number one market by production and sales, accounting for over 35% of all passenger cars produced in Europe Increase of passenger car registration numbers in Germany in 2015: +5.6% Number one market by car registrations, accounting for over 23% of all newly registered passenger cars in Europe Sources: ACEA (2016); OICA (2016) Germany Trade & Invest 6

7 The Premium Segment Germany. World s premium car production and innovation hub Premium car production by country % Germany China 40% of all produced premium vehicles worldwide are made in Germany 6% 6% 41% USA Japan 60% of all produced premium vehicles are manufactured in Europe 13% 14% UK Rest of World 70% of the premium car production is manufactured by German OEM The country s strong industrial base, its value chain density, its R&D power and particular strength in the automotive premium business, enables investors to develop cutting edge automotive technologies for today s automotive needs. [ ] Sources: GTAI Research (2015); MarkLines database (2015) Germany Trade & Invest 7

8 2. MARKET TRENDS Germany Trade & Invest 8

9 Mega trends in the automotive industry Efficient and connected cars KEY ISSUES KEY TRENDS SOLUTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ICE DOWNSIZING N o 1 Battery electric mobility Fuel efficency and environmental friendliness rated as most important product issues. ELECTROMOBILITY N o 2 Fuel cell electric mobility URBANIZATION Congestion and limited parking space are major concerns in megacities. INNOVATIVE URBAN CAR DESIGN CONCEPTS LIGHTWEIGHT MATERIALS N O 3 Innovative urban vehicle design concepts DIGITALIZATION & CHANGING CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR CONNECTED CAR CONCEPTS / N O 4 Connected car concepts Customers expect the same services when in the car as they receive at home, at work or on their smartphones. The world is moving from asset owend to asset shared business models. AUTONOMOUS DRIVING OEM CAPTIVE FINANCING, LEASING, AND PAY PER USE MOBILITY SERVICES N O 5 N O 6 OEM captive financing and leasing Mobility services Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey (2012); GTAI Research (2016) Germany Trade & Invest 9

10 Disrupters in the automotive industry From asset owned and human driven to asset shared and autonomous OWNED AUTONOMY Sensors, algorithms and mechatronics Strong focus on automated driving technologies Asset Owned TODAY 130 year old industry Same propulsion system No revolutionary development Human Driven Autonomous AUTOPIA Autonomous PODS On-demand public transport Billed by driven distance or time Asset Shared SHARED MOBILITY Human driven Mobility on demand through apps New business models emerge Earning money without building cars Pay per mile or minute On-demand service Questioning individual ownership Change of customer behavior millennials Environmental friendliness Sources: Morgan Stanley (2016); GTAI Research (2016) Germany Trade & Invest 10

11 Autonomous drive in Germany German OEMs and suppliers are dominating autonomous drive innovations Amount of patents related to autonomous drive technologies (By different company groups and Top-10 patenting companies; ) 3000 Bosch (Germany) World without Germany Audi (Germany) Germany Continental (Germany) General Motors (USA) *Disruptors, e.g. Google, Apple Sources: PATENTSCOPE (2016); IW, Köln (2016) Total OEMs Suppliers Electronic Disruptors Google (USA) VW (Germany) Toyota (Japan) Daimler (Germany) BMW (Germany) Ford (USA) Germany Trade & Invest 11

12 Connected Cars Technologies Germany is Europe s leading market for connected cars Country Ranking Connected Car Index 80% 70% 66,8% 60% 50% 58,8% 50,6% 46,4% 40% 30% 20% 27,8% 22,5% 15,3% 10% 7,6% 00% USA Germany Japan China South Korea United Kingdom France Italy Methodology & Assesment: 50 percent innovation power OEM; 30 percent country s market size and digital power; 20 percent power of big data player Germany is creating the framework to enable future autonomous driving Source: Connected Car Innovation Study (2015) Germany Trade & Invest 12

13 National Strategy Automated & Connected Drive National strategy with five central action fields Roundtable Automated Drive Foundation: Set up by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure in 2013 Involved Parties: Experts from the fields of politics, R&D, insurance industry, vehicle manufacturer and suppliers Main Target: Development of strategic implications to answer the numerous individual legal and economic aspects related to automated driving Strategy development based on work results Ongoing advancement & exchange Goal Remain Leading Technology Provider Become Lead Market Enable automated and connected drive National Strategy Automated and Connected Drive Potential Increase of transport efficiency & quality Increase of transport safety Reduction of mobilityrelated emissions Reinforcement of Germany as business location Action Fields Infrastructure Law Innovation Connectivity IT-Security Source: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure ; GTAI Research Germany Trade & Invest 13

14 Automation Driver Automated Drive Roadmap Unified agreement about the process towards the autonomous car Driver carries out all lane holding and lane changes No inventing vehicle systems Driver carries out all lane holding OR lane changes Driver must continuously monitor the system Driver needs no longer continuously monitor the system. Must be available to take over No driver necessary in special applications System handles the other function System handles lane holding and lane changes in a special application case System handles lane holding and lane changes in a special application case. Detects limits of system and asks the driver to take over with sufficient warning System can handle all situations automatically in the specific case System can handle all situations automatically throughout the trip. No driver needed. Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Driver Only Assisted Partly Automated Highly Automated Fully Automated Autonomous Penetration >2030 Source: Federal Highway Research Institute; German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) 2015 Germany Trade & Invest 14

15 Automated Drive Landscape Digital Test fields and national automotive R&D & industry Three different test fields enabled for autonomous and automated driving Initiator: Federal Ministry of Transportation and Digital Infrastructure; State Ministries Baden-Württemberg and Lower-Saxony Test fields: Bavaria: Automated driving on the Autobahn A9 Real time measurement of dynamic data; for more safety and better traffic flow Baden-Württemberg: Autonomous and automated action field Karlsruhe; urban and rural areas will both be tested Lower-Saxony: Approximately 270 km length between Hanover, Brunswick, and Salzgitter by 2018 Target: Testing, evaluating & improving mobility 4.0 technologies Source: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure; Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy; GTAI Research Germany Trade & Invest 15

16 4. GERMANY TRADE AND INVEST - SUPPORT Germany Trade & Invest 16

17 Who we are Foreign trade and inward investment agency of the Federal Republic of Germany Shareholder Germany Trade & Invest 17

18 What we do International marketing of Germany as a business and technology location Economic promotion of the new federal states and Berlin Business location consultancy services for international investors Export market information for the German economy Germany Trade & Invest 18

19 Advantages of the partner network German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs) Economic development agencies of the federal states Chambers of Industry and Commerce (IHKs) As the hub for a global network, we maintain close working relationships to a number of institutions. German embassies and consulates Industry associations and lobby groups Multipliers Germany Trade & Invest 19

20 About GTAI Support Two headquarters in Germany 50 locations worldwide Chicago New York San Francisco Toronto Washington D.C. Buenos Aires Bogotá Mexico City Santiago de Chile Sao Paulo Athens Brussels The Hague Helsinki London Madrid Milan Paris Stockholm Berlin Bonn Accra Johannesburg Cairo Nairobi Tunis Jerusalem Almaty Belgrade Budapest Bucharest Kiev Dubai Istanbul Moscow Prague Warsaw Zagreb Sydney Bangkok Beijing Hanoi Hong Kong Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Mumbai New Delhi Seoul Shanghai Taipeh Tokyo Germany Trade & Invest 20

21 Germany Trade & Invest serves as a one-stop consultant to the investing company Investment consultancy services Discussion on the market/industry and competition in Germany and Europe Information on tax and legal issues in Germany Information on different registration or licensing requirements Information on the financing of the project (including incentives) Discussion of location proposals/site evaluation incl. site visits Joint project management with regional economic development agencies Germany Trade & Invest 21

22 About Germany Trade & Invest Mechanical and Electronic Technologies Division Worldwide Contacts Europe Berlin - Headquarters Mr. Oliver Seiler Director Mechanical & Electronic Technologies T oliver.seiler@gtai.com Mr. Stefan Di Bitonto Senior Manager Transportation Technologies T stefan.dibitonto@gtai.com Mrs. Peggy Görlitz Senior Manager Machinery & Equipment T peggy.goerlitz@gtai.com Mr. Max Milbredt Manager Electronics & Microtechnology T max.milbredt@gtai.com Ms. Claudia Grüne Manager Machinery & Equipment T claudia.gruene@gtai.com Mr. Rico Trost Manager Transportation Technologies T Rico.trost@gtai.com Mr. Jérôme Hull Senior Manager Machinery & Equipment T Rico.trost@gtai.com Dr. Rainer Müller Senior Manager Nanotechnology & Lightweight T rainer.mueller@gtai.com North America Chicago Office New York Office San Francisco Office Washington, D.C. Office Mr. Emilio Brahmst Director Chicago, USA T F emilio.brahmst@gtai.com Mr. Claus Habermeier Director New York, USA T: F: claus.habermeier@gtai.com Ms. Angelika Geiger Director San Francisco, USA T: F: angelika.geiger@gtai.com Mr. Omar Oweiss Director Washington DC, USA T: F: omar.oweiss@gtai.com Asia-Pacific B eijing Office Shanghai Office Tokyo Office Mumbai Office Mr. Jonathan Schoo Director Beijing, China T F jonathan.schoo@gtai.com Mr. Markus Hempel Director Shanghai, China T. tbd. F. tbd. markus.hempel@gtai.com Mr. Iwami Asakawa Japan Representative Tokyo, Japan T F iwami.asakawa@gtai.com Ms. Cleona James Assistant Mumbai, India T F. +91 (22) cleona.james@gtai.com 2015 Germany Trade & Invest All Germany information Trade provided & Investby Germany Trade & Invest has been put together with the utmost care. However, we assume no liability for the accuracy of the information provided. 22