UK Cost Reduc6on Pathways

Transcription

1 Money Talks: Cost modelling and Cost Reduc6on Opportuni6es UK Cost Reduc6on Pathways Adrian Fox Programme Manager Technology and Supply Chain 23 February 2014

2 The Cost Agenda Supply chain advancement DECC Roadmap Offshore Wind Cost Pathways Cost Task Force Offshore Wind Demonstra6on Programme Offshore Wind Programme Board Jul 11 Jun 12 Jul 12 Feb 13 Mar 13

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4 Cost Reduc6on is required to maximise deployment of offshore wind to 2020 and beyond 18GW by 2020 high end of central scenario (2011). 15 GW 8 GW 11GW by 2020 low end of central scenario. (2011) Year of opera@on DECC EMR delivery Plan December 2013 At the strike price for offshore wind, the modelling suggests that 10GW is achievable (within a range of 8-15GW in the modelling by Na@onal Grid)

5 LCOE model design (single site) LCOE ( /MWh) = total discounted cost/total discounted genera@on CAPEX OPEX AEP WACC Timing Consen@ng Development/ Project Mngmt. Turbine Support structure Array electrical Installa@on Opera@ons & Maintenance Insurance Transmission charges Other Gross AEP Losses Availability Net AEP to offshore substa@on Equity returns Debt margin Debt tenor Gearing Re- financing Phasing of CAPEX, OPEX and AEP Re- financing / Changes in WACC 4 Decommission ing Insurance Includes Capex: Cost reduc6on covered in separate RUK sub group study for pathways team

6 Industry Stories High Finance & Supply Chain Incremental improvement 3: Supply Chain Efficiency 4: Rapid Growth 36GW in Europe by 2020 (17GW in UK) Incremental technology (e.g. steady progress to 5-7MW turbines) Greater investment, project and beher risk management Deeper financial markets, lower risk / lower cost of capital 1: Slow Progression 2: Technology Acceleration 31GW in Europe by 2020 (12GW in UK) Incremental technology evolu@on, progress limited by market size Limited compe@@on/economies of scale Modest developments in financing solu@ons, reduc@on in risk / cost of capital 43GW in Europe by 2020 (23GW in UK) High levels of technology evolu@on across all wind farm elements (e.g. turbines progress rapidly to 5-7MW+) Greater compe@@on, investment, project collabora@on and beher risk management Challenging volume of finance required 36GW in Europe by 2020 (17GW in UK) High levels of technology evolu@on across all wind farm elements (e.g. turbines progress rapidly to 5-7MW+) Fragmented supply chain with some improvement in collabora@on Limited improvement in cost of capital due to ongoing changes in technology Incremental improvement Technology * Note: all GW figures refer to total opera@onal capacity by 2020 High innova@on

7 Capacity Trajectories by Story Operating capacity in the UK (GW) Rapid Growth 43GW by 2020 (Europe) Including 23 GW in UK Technology Acceleration & Supply Chain Efficiency 36GW by 2020 (Europe) Including 17 GW in UK Slow Progression 31GW by 2020 (Europe) Including 12 GW in UK Each Story is tied to an assumption on build out rate in UK and Rest of Europe

8 Generic Site Types Specified for this project Represent range of projects/zones to 2020 Site Type Average Water depth (m) Distance to nearest port (km) Average wind speed (m/s) A B C D

9 Pathway Industry Story (x4) Site Type (A,B,C,D) Pathway (x16) Product A in 2011 Product A in 2014 Product A in 2017 Product B in 2017 Product A in 2020 Product B in 2020 Industry mix of Products Product B in 2014 Product C in 2017 Product C in 2020 Pathway Time (based on year of FID)* * FID = Final Investment Decision

10 Baseline of /MWh 140/MWh 143/MWh

11 Study Framework 3 inter- related workstreams Finance Technology Health & Safety Supply Chain

12 RESULTS

13 Technology

14 Overall summary Element Number of Innova6ons Windfarm Development 7 Turbine Nacelle 13 Turbine Rotor 13 Support structure 8 Array Cables 5 Installa@on 14 Opera@on 8 Scheduled and unplanned maintenance 6 13

15 Turbines

16 Turbine cost

17 Turbine cost

18 Supply Chain

19 Levers Asset Growth and Economies of Scale Risk Contract Risk Uncontrollable EU Low Cost Entrants Horizontal

20 Supply Chain lever FID 2020, Story 3, By Element

21 Story 1 SC Lever reduc@ons By Lever

22 Finance

23 Capital Requirements by Story

24 Post- Tax nominal WACC

25 Cost Pathways LCOE ( /MWh) FID 2011 FID 2014 FID 2017 FID Slow Progression 2 - Technology Accelera@on 3 - Supply Chain Efficiency 4 - Rapid Progression

26 to LCOE

27 Breakdown of 2020 cost 0-9 Cost Reduc6on ( /MWh) Story 1 Story 2 Story 3 Story 4 Technology (& transmission) Supply Chain Finance

28 Headline Drivers of Cost Next turbines (rotor size, MW reliability, life) & structures Offshore installa6on for cost and risk (including speed) Capacity factor (increase to 40-50%) New entrant suppliers to compe66on and constraint avoidance Steadily increasing market with predictable project delivers economies of scale, learning/proving, skills- growth investment in technology and supply capacity facilitates pre- FID commitments by developers concentrates available financial & other resources onto chosen projects Risk and cost tackled and end to end, within ver6cal collabora6ons early in pre- consent development Developers abrac6ng new equity, and third party finance, to phase Smooth recycling of capital once asset is

29 Comparison of DE and UK study TCE (average site type C and D) S@sung (site type B) S@sung Scenario 1 S@sung Scenario 2

30 Assessment DE projects risk being up to 10% less cost due to wake effects DE development and costs 40% higher than UK Financing costs significantly lower in DE DE O&M costs benefit from greater shared costs between projects DE costs less than UK.

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32 Further hhp:// infrastructure/offshore- wind- energy/working- with- us/strategic- workstreams/cost- study/