KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2013 Managing a multidimensional business model

Transcription

1 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2013 Managing a multidimensional business model Global Automotive Practice April 2013

2 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2013 Content Executive summary Market trends and a view on the customer Forces of change Environmental challenges: pursuing the green dream Growing urbanization: coping with the narrow streets of the big city Changing customer behavior: how dealers are adapting Growth and globalization: emerging markets surging forward & keeping a lid on capacity Planning a route to future success Winners and losers in the battle for global dominance Looking forward 2

3 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2013 About the study About the study Geographic distribution of respondents Geografic distribution of respondents Respondents job titles KPMG International s annual assessment of the current state and future prospects of the worldwide automotive industry. In this year s survey 200 senior executives from the world s leading automotive companies were interviewed. 39.0% 24.0% 37.0% Company category Americas ASPAC EMEA 35% 10% 4% 1% 50% CEO/President/Chairman C-level executive Business Unit/ Functional Head Head of Department/ Leadership Team Business Unit/ Functional Manager Company annual revenues 1% 5% 5% Vehicle manufacturer (OEM) 5% 5% 5% 30% Tier 1 supplier Tier 2/3 supplier New components supplier 5% 5% Independent Dealer OEM Captive Dealer OEM Captive Financial Services 10% 25% Non-Captive Financial Services Auto Rental Company 35% 16% 25% 23% Over $10 billion >$1 billion < $10 billion >$500 million < $1 billion >$100 million < $500 million Less than $100 million Mobility Service Provider Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey 3

4 Market trends and a view on the customer Emerging markets, battery electric mobility but also ICE are major trends Key automotive industry trends up to % 76% 58% 73% 72% 49% Trends with the largest differences between BRIC and TRIAD 80% 68% 69% 76% 55% 65% Battery electric Fuel cell Urban vehicle design 60% 28% 56% 58% 51% 51% Financing and leasing TRIAD BRIC Car-to-X 54% 54% 53% 26% 22% 18% The industry is being shaped by the rise of the developing markets, e- mobility and the changing urban environment. X X Market growth in emerging markets Battery electric mobility Downsizing and optimization of the internal combustion engine (ICE) Fuel cell electric mobility Innovative urban vehicle design concepts OEM captive financing and leasing Connected car technologies (e.g. Carto-X communication) Mobility-as-a-Service Note: 2013: Percentage of respondents rating issues is extremely important and very important Note: 2013: 2012: Percentage Percentage of respondents of respondents rating trend rating is extremely trend as important most and very second important most important Source: 2012: Percentage KPMG s Global of respondents Auto Executive rating trend Survey is most 2013 and second most important Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey X No data available 4

5 Market trends and a view on the customer Plug-ins soar in popularity amongst customers Electric vehicle technology that will attract most consumer demand by % 21% Plug-in Hybrids 20% 26% Non-plug-in Hybrids (Full/Mild/Micro) 17% 18% 17% Battery electric vehicles with range extender 20% Fuel cell electric vehicles 2013 (by 2018) 2012 (by 2025) 11% 16% Battery electric vehicles Pure battery driven cars have lost ground in the battle for new propulsion technology; they are expected to attract the lowest consumer demand by Note: Percentage of respondents rating topic as most demand Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding off Note: Percentage of respondents rating topic as attracting the most consumer demand Percentages Source: KPMG s may not add 2013 up to Global 100 due Auto rounding Executive off Survey Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey

6 Market trends and a view on the customer Emerging middle classes want bigger, more luxurious cars Expected vehicle demand increases by % 49% 55% 63% 58% 65% 34% 56% 16% 36% 36% 25% 28% 33% 39% 66% 20% 49% 38% Increase TRIAD Increase BRIC 40% 18% In mature markets people are downscaling, whereas in the emerging nations SUVs and big cars are booming. 11% BASIC (e.g. Chevrolet Spark, Fiat 500, VW Fox) SUBCOMPACT (e.g. Ford Fiesta, Toyota Yaris, Renault Clio) COMPACT (e.g. Ford Focus, Daimler A Class, Honda Civic) MIDSIZE (e.g. BMW 3 Series, Nissan Altima, Toyota Camri) LARGE (e.g. Daimler E Class, Volvo S80, Ford Taurus) LARGE-PLUS (e.g. BMW 7 series, Daimler S Class, Jaguar XJ) SPORTS (e.g. Porsche 911, Chevrolet Corvette) SUV (e.g. Chevrolet Captiva, BMW X5, Nissan Pathfinder) MPV (e.g. Ford Galaxy, Daimler R Class) PICKUP (e.g. Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Colorado) VAN (e.g. Ford Transit, Citroen Berlingo, VW Canter) Note: Percentage of respondents expecting market share to remain stable or decrease are not shown Note: 2013: Percentage of respondents expecting demand to increase Source: KPMG s 2012: Percentage Global of respondents Auto Executive expecting Survey demand 2013 to increase Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey 6

7 Forces of change The automotive industry has to face a bundle of different challenges KEY FORCES RESULTING TRENDS ROUTE TO SUCCESS ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES GROWING URBANIZATION CHANGING CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR ICE DOWNSIZING ELECTRO-MOBILITY INNOVATIVE URBAN CAR DESIGN MOBILITY AS A SERVICE (MaaS) DEALERSHIP CONCEPTS FINANCIAL SERVICES LIGHT WEIGHT MATERIAL CONNEC- TIVITY? GROWTH & GLOBALIZATION EMERGING MARKETS OVERCAPACITY Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey 7

8 Environmental challenges: pursuing the green dream Around the world the greatest investment is going into ICE downsizing Biggest investments in powertrain technologies in the next 5 years Supl. 24% Supl. 23% OEM 31% ICE downsizing OEM 29% Plug-in Hybrid Supl. 11% OEM 18% Hybrid fuel systems Supl. 18% Supl. 13% OEM 10% OEM 6% Battery (range extender) Pure battery Note: Only OEM and Supplier from TRIAD and BRIC markets Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding off Note: OEMs and suppliers rating from TRIAD and BRIC markets shown Source: Percentages KPMG s may not 2013 add Global up to 100 Auto due Executive to rounding Survey off Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey % 33% ICE downsizing 29% 22% Plug-in Hybrid Supl. 11% OEM 6% Fuel cell 16% 14% 15% 13% 14% Hybrid fuel systems TRIAD/ BRIC Battery (range extender) 7% Pure battery TRIAD 10% 8% Fuel cell BRIC Despite new technological developments, ICE downsizing will be the leading solution for the foreseeable future. Time period in which ICE offers the greatest potential for clean, efficient engines Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding off Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey % 4% E-cars are already a viable alternative today X 20% 33% 27% 51% 50% 35% 54% 1-5 years 6-10 years 35% 20% 9% years 12% 23% 12 BRIC 12 TRIAD 13 BRIC 13 TRIAD XNo data available 5% E-cars 1% will never be a viable alternative X 8

9 China India Russia Brazil Japan WE US Environmental challenges: pursuing the green dream Around the world the greatest investment is going into ICE downsizing Share of all annual new e-vehicle (based on light vehicles) registrations by 2027 (in million vehicles) 40% of respondents from the U.S. believe the share of e-car registration will be 16-20% % of respondents from Western Europe believe the share of e-car registration will be 6-10%. 46% of respondents from Japan believe the share of e- car registration will be 11-15%. 35% of respondents from Brazil believe the share of e- car registration will be 1-5%. 33% of respondents from Russia believe the share of e- car registration will be 16-20% For the BRIC and TRIAD markets respondents expect 11.3 to 17.4 million e-vehicles on the streets by % of respondents from India believe the share of e- car registration will be 6-10% % of respondents from China believe the share of e- car registration will be 11-15%. Note: Expectations of most survey respondents from the respective country Note: Percentages Expectations may of most not survey add up respondants due to rounding form the respective off country Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Automotive Executive Survey Survey (expectations 2013 (expectations by 2025)& LMC by Automotive 2025) &(Q3 LMC 2012 Automotive forecast 2027) (Q forecast 2027) expected range of e-vehicles registrations non e-vehicle registrations xxx total vehicle registrations 9

10 Growing urbanization: coping with the narrow streets of the big city The usage of the car will change, especially in megacities Moving towards new urban mobility concepts Liklyhood Likelihood of a car as of a integral car as an integral part of a overall part of mobility a overall concept mobility concept 61% 59% 58% Mobility-as-a-service as an alternative to car Mobility-as-a-Service ownership in as urban an alternative areas to car ownership in urban areas Yes No Don t know 11% 17% 72% Respondents agree that cars will become a part of a wider mobility solution and 72 percent see MaaS as a genuine alternative to car ownership. All TRIAD BRIC Note: Percentage of respondents rating options as extremely likely and very likely Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey 2013 Note: Percentage of respondents rating option as extremly likely and very likely Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey 10

11 China India Russia Brazil Japan WE USA Growing urbanization: coping with the narrow streets of the big city Growing numbers of urban inhabitants offer immense opportunities Mobility services usage among city dwellers by 2027 (in million people) 60% of respondents from U.S. believe 6-15% of urban inhabitants will use mobility services in % of respondents from Western Europe believe 6-15% of urban inhabitants will use mobility services in % of respondents from Japan believe 6-15% of urban inhabitants will use mobility services in % of respondents from Brazil believe 6-15% of urban inhabitants will use mobility services in A majority believe that 6-15 percent of urban inhabitants will use MaaS in the next 15 years. The market for MaaS could be as high as 245 million people. 53% of respondents from Russia believe less than 5% of urban inhabitants will use mobility services in % of respondents from India believe 6-15% of urban inhabitants will use mobility services in expected range of mobility services people not using mobility service xxx urban population 40% of respondents from China believe 6-15%of urban inhabitants will use mobility services in Note: Expectations of most of the survey majority respondants of the form survey the respective respondents country from the respective country Source: Percentages KPMG s may 2013 not Global add Automotive up due Executive rounding Survey, off United Nations World Urbanization Prospects Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2013, United Nations World Urbanization Prospects 11

12 Changing customer behavior: how dealers are adapting Dealerships of the future will be different Increasing significance of dealership models 83% All ASPAC Americas EMEA 73% 64% 61% 63% 56% 58% 54% 56% 46% 38% 40% 38% 35% 31% 33% 83 percent of auto execs from the Americas predict that online dealerships and intermediaries activity will increase. Dealership concepts considered important to future success Product touch point for internet services 57% 63% Online dealerships & intermediaries Multi-brand dealerships owned by third parties Dealerships will be independant Only 54 percent of respondents from TRIAD countries believe the existing dealership model is vital to future success. Dealerships will be integrated in the OEM business Note: Percentage of respondents expecting the share of importance to 'remain stable' or 'decrease' are not shown Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey 2013 Note: Percentage of respondents expecting importance share to remain stable or decrease are not shown Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey Service station (e.g. bank, insurance, update services) Car rental & sharing pools Conventional retailers 68% 57% 61% 54% All respondents Note: Note: Percentage of respondents rating rating aspect options as extremly as important extremely and very important and very important Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey Survey % 58% 54% Respondents from the TRIAD 75% 53% 70% Respondents from the BRIC 12

13 Changing customer behavior: how dealers are adapting Maintaining dealer margins Most important factors influencing the profitability of dealers 90% 100% Good dealership locations 100% 85% 78% 80% 78% 80% 80% 80% 78% 75% 75% Brand performance and multi-branding Motivating Effective controlling organization structure and dealer and sales incentives management system Note: Percentage of dealer respondents rating options as 'extremely important' and 'very important' ote: Percentage Source: KPMG s of dealer Global respondents Auto Executive rating Survey factoras 2013 extremly important and very important ource: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey 40% 89% 70% 67% 60% 60% 60% 56% Managing pricing and Continuous cost and Financing costs and supply working capital management equity structure Dealers All Dealers TRIAD Dealers BRIC Respondents from BRIC markets feel incentives - and the management of pricing and supply are the key factors influencing profitability. In the TRIADs it is all about location. 13

14 Changing customer behavior: how dealers are adapting Customers are seeking competitive financing, but not for e-components yet Importance of value-added services in consumer vehicle purchasing decisions % 80% 60% 69% 74% 80% 77% 74% 68% 70% 68% 68% 63% 58% 65% Importance of operating captive financial service Importance of operating captive financial service arms for the future success of automotive OEMs 36% 35% 26% 71% 80% Competitive financing options Service quality during the purchase transaction Servicing options during the vehicle lifespan Warranty options Note: Percentage of respondents rating service as extremely important and important Note: Source: Percentage KPMG s of Global respondents Auto rating Executive service Survey as extremly 2013 important and important Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey Quick and conscientious responses to product recalls Financing of e- components In mature markets (North America, Europe, Japan) In emerging markets (BRIC etc.) Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey 2013 Respondents from BRICs say service, pre-and post-purchase, is a key factor when buying a car. 14

15 Growth and globalization - Emerging markets surging forward BRIC manufacturers heading for South East Asia and Eastern Europe Eastern Europe 19% Best hubs for BRIC manufacturers to enter the European market Growth North America 5% Growth Western Europe 8% Growth Growth Eastern Europe 70% 40% Mexico 39% Best hubs for BRIC manufacturers to enter the North American market 18% 12% Growth Middle east & Africa South East Asia Growth 1% Growth Oceania Growth South America xx% Regional manufacturers from the BRICs have the greatest opportunities for growth Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey

16 Growth and globalization - Emerging markets surging forward BRIC manufacturers are expected to play an important role in export markets Export potential of emerging market OEMs China 11% believe China will export a significant number of cars in 1-2 years in 2012: 32% expected >1 mio. to be exported China 47% believe China will export a significant number of cars in 3-5 years in 2012 only 41% felt this way regarding >1 mio. exports Brazil 37% believe Brazil will export a significant number of in cars 3-5 years up slightly from the 2012 figure of 35% with expected > 1 mio. cars to be exported Russia 14% believe Russia will export a significant number of cars in > 10 years in 2012: 34% shared that opinion India 22% believe India will export a significant number of cars now in 2012 just 2% felt this was the case Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey 2013 Russia 36% believe Russia will export a significant number of cars in 3-5 years in 2012 the figure was 31% India 29% believe India will export a significant number of cars in 6-9 years 43% shared this view in 2012 Note: Significant number of cars with regard to the respective country: China: more than 2 million vehicles India: more than 1 million vehicles Russia: more than 1 million vehicles Brazil: more than 2 million vehicles In the 2012 survey expectations were asked for all countries for more than 1 million cars. 16

17 Planning a route to future success New products and technologies are the key to growth over the next five years Most effective growth tactics up to % 90% 84% 81% 81% 81% 80% 76% 78% 75% 75% 74% All TRIAD 63% 65% 64% 60% 59% 58% 59% 53% 51% 63% BRIC 55% 46% 48% 43% 41% Developing new products and/or new technologies Entering new markets Improving total affordability Offering pricing & sales incentives Product portfolio diversification Note: Percentage of respondents rating strategy as extremely likely and very likely to generate growth Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey 2013 Improving brand management Integrating solutions with other industries/new business models (ie. mobility provider) Increase captive financial services activities (e.g. full-service leasing) Growth through acquisition(s) KPMG Note: International Percentage provides no client of services. respondents No member firm rating has any authority strategy to obligate as extremly or bind KPMG likely International and or any very other likely member to firm generate vis-à-vis third parties, growth nor does Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey 17

18 Planning a route to future success Partnerships & JVs are increasingly important in building new technology Industry players responsible for major technology building blocks Mobility Solutions/Mobilityas-a-Service Light weight components 13% 26% 34% 37% 29% Manufacturing of components for electrified vehicles 34% 26% 26% 40% 8% 46% 45% 31% 19% 18% 23% 12% 15% 8% 5% OEMs Tier 1 suppliers/ Dealerships (Maas) New players specified in the respective areas 48% 29% 33% Joint approaches among divers players Note: Percentage of respondents choosing player as responsible Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding off Note: Source: Percentage KPMG s Global of respondents Auto Executive regarding Survey player 2013 as responsible Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding off Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey Only 13 percent of respondents feel that manufacturers will be the main player in mobility half as many as in the previous 2012 Global Automotive Executive survey. 18

19 Planning a route to future success Automotive connectivity offers up new opportunities for technology companies Control over connectivity and in-car infotainment systems of tomorrow 42% 40% 32% 30% Less than a quarter believe that modular components and software design is the way forward. 18% 12% 12% 17% Best way to overcome varied development lifecycles Information Technology & Connectivity companies OEMs New suppliers from converging industries Tier 1 suppliers 42% 50% 38% 38% 35% All OEM Supplier Note: Percentages may may not not add add up up to 100 to 100 due due to rounding to rounding off off Source: KPMG s Global 2013 Global Auto Executive Auto Executive Survey 2013 Survey 24% 24% 23% 26% Plug-in solutions for mobile internet devices (e.g. smartphones, tablets) Cloud based services (no Modular and updateable need for user-driven updates component & software design etc.) Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding off Source: Note: KPMG s Percentages 2013 may Global not add Auto up Executive to 100 due Survey to rounding off Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey

20 Planning a route to future success Vehicle manufacturing will continue to be the main source of profits Sources of future profit for OEMs 39% 33% 25% 23% 21% 19% 12% 16% 11% 13% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 9% 8% All TRIAD BRIC 5% 6% 5% TRIAD OEMs feel vehicle and electric powertrain manufacturing will contribute roughly equally to future profits. Vehicle manufacturing (also contract manufacturing) Electric powertrain manufacturing Financial services (bank, insurance, financing & leasing) Component manufacturing ICE engine manufacturing Mobility Services Connectivity and infotainment software Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding off Note: Source: Percentages KPMG s may not add 2013 up Global to 100 due Auto rounding Executive off Survey Source: KPMG s Global Auto Executive Survey

21 Looking forward: Auto executives need to consider their position within a multidimensional automotive world KEY FORCES RESULTING TRENDS ROUTE TO SUCCESS ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES GROWING URBANIZATION CHANGING CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR ICE DOWNSIZING ELECTRO-MOBILITY INNOVATIVE URBAN CAR DESIGN MOBILITY AS A SERVICE (MaaS) DEALERSHIP CONCEPTS FINANCIAL SERVICES LIGHT WEIGHT MATERIAL CONNEC- TIVITY ICE downsizing/ Hybrids Enhanced vehicle lifespan Joint approaches R&D management/ funding New urban mobility concepts Added value services Brand management Plug-in connectivity solutions Online services Multi brand dealerships Emerging market expansion Global footprint/ expansion GROWTH & GLOBALIZATION EMERGING MARKETS OVERCAPACITY Trade barriers Capacity management Module/Platform strategies Source: KPMG s 2013 Global Auto Executive Survey 21

22 KPMG in Latvia Established in 1994, currently KPMG Baltics SIA employs 112 staff. There are four Partners: Stephen Young Senior Partner, Advisory Steve Austwick Partner, Tax & Legal Armine Movsisjana Partner, Audit Ondrej Fikrle Partner, Audit KPMG Audit Tax and legal Advisory Transactions & Restructuring Risk & Compliance Performance & Technology e.g. Restructuring Debt advisory Crisis management Insolvency Forensic Due diligence Regulatory compliance IFRS implementation Sustainability services IT security Internal Audit Revenue enhancement and cost optimization IT-enabled transformation Transforming operations Management Consulting Business performance improvement 22

23 For more information about this presentation please contact: Edgars Voļskis KPMG Baltics Transport & Logistics sector KPMG Baltics SIA Vesetas iela 7 LV-1013 Riga E: evolskis@kpmg.com T: F: KPMG Baltics SIA, a Latvian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International). kpmg.com/lv