City of Boston Transportation Baseline Forecast

Transcription

1 City of Boston Transportation Baseline Forecast Carbon-Free Boston Initiative presented to Transportation Analysis Group presented by Chris Porter & Marty Milkovits March 1 28, 2018

2 Overall Analysis Approach Baseline Alternative Baselines High-Level Assessment Detailed Assessment Business as usual Vary key exogenous factors Pricing/ incentives Land use Infrastructure Regulation Fleets Education/ outreach Pricing/ incentive A vs. B Infrastructure A vs. B Etc. 2

3 3 National Trends

4 Gasoline Price Forecasts Delivered price of motor gasoline, 2017 $/gal $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 Reference case High oil price $ Source: U.S. DOE, Annual Energy Outlook

5 VMT, MPG, and Energy Use Light-Duty Vehicles Light-Duty Vehicles (Stock) - Index to VMT - Ref Case 1/mpg - Ref Case Energy - Ref Case VMT - High Oil Price 1/mpg - High Oil Price Energy - High Oil Price Source: U.S. DOE, Annual Energy Outlook

6 VMT, MPG, and Energy Use Freight Trucks Freight Trucks - Index to VMT - Ref Case VMT - High Oil Price /mpg - Ref Case 1/mpg - High Oil Price Energy - Ref Case Energy - High Oil Price Source: U.S. DOE, Annual Energy Outlook

7 Light-Duty Technology 16,000 U.S. Light-Duty Sales by Technology Type 14,000 12,000 10,000 Reference case Gasoline, Diesel, & Hybrid Reference case EV or PHEV 8,000 6,000 4,000 Reference case Other High oil price Gasoline, Diesel, & Hybrid High oil price EV or PHEV High oil price Other 2, Source: U.S. DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2018

8 U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Technology Type 8 Source: U.S. DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2018

9 9 Boston Baseline

10 Boston Employment and Population, , ,000 +7% % 600, , % 400, % 300, , ,000 +4% +8% -9% - Total Emp Retail Emp Service Emp (exc. Ed) Ed Emp (K- 12+Coll) Basic Emp Households Total Pop Source: CTPS Travel Demand Model,

11 Boston as a Percent of Region 35% % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Total Emp Retail Emp Service Emp (exc. Ed) Ed Emp (K- 12+Coll) Basic Emp Households Total Pop Source: CTPS Travel Demand Model,

12 Annual VMT (millions), Boston Trip-Ends 2,500 2,000 Auto Comm Lt Truck Med Truck Heavy Truck 1,500 1,

13 Composite Miles per Gallon mpgge Composite - CTPS Trip-End Composite - BCI In-Boundary

14 Boston In-Boundary vs. Trip-End Transportation GHG GHG (mt/yr) In-boundary Trip-end VMT (million/yr) 3, VMT 3, , , GHG 1,500 1, Source: City of Boston Community GHG Inventory; CS analysis of CTPS data

15 Baseline Projection, Trip-end Auto & Truck GHG Annual GHG (metric tons), Boston Trip-Ends 1,000, , , ,000 Auto Comm Lt Truck Med Truck Heavy Truck 27% below % below , , , , , , Source: CS analysis of CTPS data

16 Auto and Truck Trip-End GHG Baseline Source: CS analysis of CTPS data 16

17 Fleet Vehicle Contribution MBTA CNG + Diesel + Gasoline, 5.3% Other City Fleet, 1.5% BPS Buses, 0.9% Vehicle Fuel, not City or MBTA, 92.3% Source: City of Boston Data,

18 Baseline Bottom-Up Inventory Vehicle Population VMT (millions) mt GHGe % GHG Household Vehicles 360,802 1,903 Shared Mobility & Demand Response 33, Commercial Light Trucks 40, Medium Duty Trucks 5, Heavy Duty Trucks 1, Buses & Rail 3, Utility & Municipal Total 445,463 2,393 1,220, % DRAFT data, do not cite or quote 18

19 Baseline Assumptions: 2015 Activity Balance Light comm truck Medium duty truck 19 DRAFT data, do not cite or quote

20 Baseline Bottom-up Detail & Assumptions Household Vehicles Vehicle Population VMT (millions) 360,802 1,903 mt GHGe Pop Source VMT Source DEP MOVES model (from registrations) CTPS model VMT generated by tripends within city boundaries Ridehailing 24, Certify business travel reports Rental 5, Taxi 1, Medallion count Calculated from various sources Estimated based on various driver surveys DRAFT data, do not cite or quote 20

21 Baseline Bottom-up Detail & Assumptions (continued) Commercial Light Truck Medium Duty Truck Heavy Duty Truck Vehicle Population VMT (millions) 40, , mt GHGe Pop Source VMT Source DEP MOVES model (from registrations) 1, MOVES CTPS model VMT generated by tripends within city boundaries DRAFT data, do not cite or quote 21

22 Baseline Bottom-up Detail & Assumptions (continued) Vehicle Population VMT (millions) mt GHGe Pop Source VMT Source MBTA Buses NTD MBTA Demand Response NTD MBTA Light Rail NTD MBTA Commuter Rail School buses NTD Boston Public Schools Intercity buses CTPS Bus Study NTD - Discounted for BOS based on number of stops in boundary Calculated Calculated - 50% of mileage to first destination in itinerary DRAFT data, do not cite or quote 22

23 Baseline Bottom-up Detail & Assumptions (continued) Vehicle Population VMT (millions) mt GHGe Pop Source VMT Source Municipal City of Boston City of Boston Carshare ZipCar Vehicle Locations Calculated - average of Taxi and Rental mileage Utility City of Boston City of Boston Refuse 77 < 1 DEP MOVES model (from registrations) City of Boston MassPort 22 < 1 Massport Calculated from GTFS Utility 21 < 1 City of Boston City of Boston DRAFT data, do not cite or quote 23

24 Baseline Assumptions: Future Years Subsector Light-duty vehicles Medium and heavy trucks Urban transit, school buses, intercity buses Vehicle Population Grow proportional to VMT VMT/PMT CTPS model - VMT within city boundaries; VMT generated by trip-ends within city boundaries Technology Split AEO Reference Case Same as current Agency capital plans Fuel Consumption Rate AEO Reference Case AEO Reference Case 24

25 25 Alternative Baselines

26 Considered in the Baseline Population and job growth & other demographic change Existing & committed investments & services Federal fuel economy/ghg and renewable fuel standards Modest rate of technology change 26

27 Uncertainties: Non-Policy Smart mobility (rate of growth, impacts)» Ride-hailing, microtransit, carshare, bikeshare Driverless vehicles (timing, market penetration, impacts) Rate of technology advancement of electric and/or other alt fuel vehicles Fuel/energy prices Economic and demographic changes Freight logistics 27

28 Uncertainties: Federal & State Policy Fuel economy/ghg standards (rollback, stable, advancing) Renewable fuel/low carbon fuel standards Transportation pricing/revenue mechanisms & investment levels Regional carbon pricing/markets 28

29 Alternative Baseline Scenarios? Low Smart mobility High Fuel/ energy price Low High Business-as-usual Faster EV adoption, less driving Smart mobility growth mainly in SOV Faster EV adoption, less driving, smart mobility growth mainly in HOV 29

30 30 High-Level Assessment

31 Clean Transportation Strategies Implementation Mechanism: Infrastructure & Traffic Operations Land Use/ Zoning Focus Area: Clean Vehicles Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Land Use Strategy 3 Services Pricing/ Financial Transit Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6 Active Transportation Traffic Efficiency Smart Mobility Travel Pricing TDM Freight/ Trucks Other Regulation Public Fleets Education/ Outreach 31

32 Strategy Focus: Clean Vehicles Land Use Transit Active Transportation Infrastructure & Traffic Operations Preferential parking &/or lane access Bus/HOV lanes TSP Urban rail Bike facilities, complete streets Land Use/ Zoning EV charging requirements TOD/mixeduse zoning Parking requirements Services Transit shuttles/ service expansion Implementation Mechanism: Pricing/ Financial EV charging incentives EV/AFV purchase incentives Reduced transit fares Other Regulation Contracting & licensing requirements Site design Bikeshare E-bike regulations Public Fleets Clean fleet vehicle purchase Clean buses Education/ Outreach Consumer information programs Transit info Wayfinding Safety & skills courses Traffic Efficiency ITS/TSMO V2I Congestion pricing Ecodriving campaigns Smart Mobility Curb space utilization TNC partnerships TNC pricing AV pricing TNC & AV requirements Travel Pricing TDM Vehicle, parking, road, fuel, or carbon pricing Worksite, residential, neighborhood TDM Traveler info Freight/ Trucks 32 Loading & parking zones Industrial siting Freight distribution centers Truck permitting Truck routes & hrs of operation Anti-idling Outreach to fleet owners

33 Analysis in the face of uncertainty Imperfect models Lack of data New/untested strategies à Combine tools we do have with bounded what-if analysis 33

34 1. How far could each focus area get us? Potential GHG Reductions from Baseline, % -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Travel Pricing Traffic Efficiency Transit Non-Motorized Land Use Smart Mobility Clean Vehicles Freight/ Trucks TDM Combined 34

35 35 Detailed Assessment

36 Within Each Focus Area Model specific implementation actions that we have data/models to evaluate» How does the subset of modelable actions compare to all implementation actions for each focus area?» How do the outcomes compare to our parametric analysis?» Could other, non-modelable actions get us in the range of the parametric analysis? Key questions:» Which strategies are most effective? (DGHG)» Which are most cost-effective? ($/ton)» What are the returns to scale?» What strategies should be implemented together? Are redundant? 36

37 Looking Across Focus Areas Which strategies are synergistic? Which are antagonistic or redundant? What are the potential combined effects? 37

38 38 High-Level Assessment Scenario Options

39 Discussion By strategy focus area Levers to include or exclude Bundles defined Level of implementation» What is a moderate scenario?» What is an aggressive scenario? 39

40 Clean Vehicles Levers Preferential parking/lane access EV charging requirements EV/AFV purchase/registration incentives Clean fleet purchases/ requirements Consumer information programs Impacts Reduce fuel consumption/ carbon intensity Bundles 1 Regulation & outreach (non-financial) 2 Financial incentives Key Q s 40

41 Land Use/Zoning Levers TOD zoning Infill/compact neighborhoods Mixed-use Parking requirements Ped/bike site design TDM in new development Bundles 1 Shift growth into MXD- TOD 2 Shift growth from suburbs to central city Impacts Reduce vehicle trips shift to transit/walk/bike Reduce trip lengths Reduce auto ownership Key Q s Vary pop or jobs control total? (account for regional shifts) 41

42 Transit Levers Bus/HOV lanes Transit signal priority/queue jump Bus service expansion Rail expansion/capacity Reduced fares Traveler information Impacts Mode shift to transit More efficient transit operations Bundles 1 Focus on travel time & reliability of existing services 2 New services/expansion (routes, time of day, frequency) Key Q s Budget constraint? 42

43 Active Transportation Levers Complete streets & paths Bikeshare/services Site design (parking, access) E-bike regulation/incentives Wayfinding Safety, skills, enforcement Bundles 1 Low-stress bike network buildout 2 Comprehensive pedestrian safety improvements Impacts Key Q s Reduce vehicle trips mode shift to walk/bike 43

44 Traffic Efficiency Levers ITS/TSM&O (smart signal timing/coord, traveler info, incident response) V2I Congestion pricing Ecodriving campaigns Bundles 1 Smart signals & vehicles 2 True cost congestion pricing Impacts Key Q s Increase efficiency of traffic flow Reduce peak-period vehicle trips 44

45 Smart Mobility Levers Ridehailing & taxi regulations & pricing AV regulations & pricing Curb space utilization TNC partnerships Bundles 1 - Sustainable smart mobility policy bundle Impacts Mode shift to shared services Vehicle ownership & secondary travel impacts Requirement for efficient/low carbon vehicles/fuels Key Q s 45

46 Travel Pricing Levers Vehicle registration/excise tax Parking fees/taxes Road use/vmt fees Fuel tax Carbon pricing Cordon pricing Bundles 1 - Pricing under City of Boston control (excise tax, parking, cordon?) 2 State or regional fuel, road, or carbon pricing Impacts Reduce VMT (mode shift, trip reduction, shorter trips) Encourage more fuel efficient vehicle purchase Key Q s What pricing mechanisms could the city implement? 46

47 Travel Demand Management Levers Bundles Worksite TDM Residential TDM (new development) Neighborhood TDM Traveler information 1 Employer/worksite TDM requirements 2 Citywide smart trips neighborhood outreach Impacts Key Q s Mode shift Trip reduction 47

48 Freight/Trucks Levers Loading & parking zones Industrial siting/land use Freight distribution centers Truck permitting Truck routes & hrs of operation Anti-idling Outreach to fleet owners Bundles 1 Smart freight distribution 2 Green truck fleets & operation Impacts Reduced truck traffic Reduced congestion Reduce fuel consumption/ carbon intensity Key Q s Limited data on this area 48

49 Next Steps Refine 2016 baseline Develop alternative future baselines Begin high-level scenario analysis Finalize model architecture & begin modeling of high priority strategies Initial results for next TAG meeting 49