Planning for Renewables

Transcription

1 Planning for Renewables Victor Aguirre Manager, Resource Planning 2017 IRP Workshop November 2, 2016

2 TEP and UNSE System San Juan U2 170 MW reduction by 2018 San Juan U1 170 MW option to exit in 2022 Navajo Proposal to shut down one unit by 2020 with no impact to TEP Navajo Option to exit in 2030 Four Corners SCR installation by 2018 Four Corners Option to exit in 2031 Sundt U4 Convert to gas by 2018 Springerville U1 Exercised purchase option at 49% of the unit (190 MW) 1

3 Capacity, MW TEP Loads & Resources 3,500 3,000 Future Capacity Needs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Springerville Unit 1 Purchase 2018 Planned San Juan Unit 2 Retirement 2020 Reciprocating Engines (RICE) 2022 Option to Exit San Juan Unit Local Area Gas Turbine Retirements Local Area Gas Steam Unit Retirements 2030 Option to Exit Navajo Generating Station 2031 Option to Exit Four Corners Generating Station Battery Storage Demand Response TEP's Target to Serve 30% of Retail Load from Renewable Resources Coal Natural Gas Utility Scale Renewables Reciprocating Engines Demand Response Battery Storage Purchased Power Future Capacity Needs Retail, Firm & Reserves 2

4 Tucson Electric Power Resource Diversification Plan (Energy) 2014 Portfolio 2023 Portfolio 2032 Portfolio Purchased Power, 12% Natural Gas, 4% Utility Scale Renewables, 4% Distributed Generation, 1% Coal, 79% Purchased Power, 7% Utility Scale Renewables, 18% Distributed Generation, 2% Coal, 50% Utility Scale Renewables, 26% Distributed Generation, 4% Coal, 30% Natural Gas, 23% Purchased Power, 6% Natural Gas, 34% 3

5 Capacity, MW UNSE Loads & Resources Future Capacity Needs 400 Battery Storage Utility Scale Renewables Existing Gas Turbines Gila River Combined Cycle Demand Response UNSE's Target to Serve 15% of Retail Load from Renewable Resources by Gila River Combined Cycle Existing Gas Turbines Utility Scale Renewables Direct Load Control Firm Capacity Purchases Batteries/Storage Future Capacity Needs Retail & Reserves 4

6 Renewable Output, MW Renewable Contribution to Peak Capacity Representative of 10MW Facilities No other renewables Average of Typical Summer Day (June August) System Peak Solar Fixed PV Solar Single Axis Tracking Solar Thermal - 6 Hour Storage AZ Wind NM Wind 5

7 MW Adjustments to Retail Peak 3,000 Shifted 2,500 2,000 30% Target 2030 Typical Summer Peak Day Existing Solar (6% of 2030 Target) 15% of 2030 Target Reduced Peak 1,500 1, Thermal Unit Ramp Thermal Unit Ramp Up Reduced Thermal Unit Minimums Hour 6

8 TEP - Solar Contribution to Peak Reduction 33% Cumulative Solar Peak Contribution (%) Incremental Solar Peak Contribution (%) 30% 27% 24% 25 MW of IncrementalSolar = 7 MW Net Peak Demand Reduction Cumulative Contribution to Peak Reduction Declines 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 25 MW of Incremental Solar = 2 MW Net Peak Demand Reduction 6% 3% 0% Net Peak 6 PM Net Peak 7 PM MW 7

9 MW 2030 Dispatch (Retail Load) ,650 MW Peak Solar Wind Coal Existing Natural Gas Capacity Shortage ,450 MW Non Renewable Hour 8

10 MW TEP Duck Curve 1,400 1,200 30% Target 2030 Winter/Spring Day Existing Solar (6% of 2030 Target) 15% of 2030 Target 100% Fixed PV No Peak Contribution 1, TEP Coal Unit Minimums 400 Thermal Unit Ramp Down Thermal Unit Ramp Up 200 Reduced Thermal Unit Minimums Hour 9

11 MW Are Renewables Baseload Resources? Solar Wind Coal Existing Natural Gas Capacity Shortage Is there a market for excess generation? ,100 MW Non Renewable Requirement Hour 10

12 MW Coal Dispatch Limitations Coal Solar Wind Existing Natural Gas Capacity Shortage MW/hr Ramp Down Ramp Issues 500 MW/hr Ramp Up 400 Coal Minimum Capacity Hour 11

13 MW Fast Response for Ramp Coal Solar Wind Existing Natural Gas Capacity Shortage Utilization of Fast Response Resources Hour 12

14 Fast Response Solutions The Challenge Renewable Integration Requirements Variability Intermittency Mitigation Other Ancillary Needs Coincident Peak Contribution Long-Term Resource Diversification (Peaking) Response Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines Energy Storage Systems Energy Imbalance Market Regional Transmission Organization 13