PNM Integrated Resource Plan FEBRUARY 7, 2014
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1 PNM Integrated Resource Plan FEBRUARY 7, 2014 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
2 WIRELESS ACCESS FOR FEB 7 TH ATTENDEES Network: Orbit-GA Username: guest Password: Parley*Reft SLIDE 2 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
3 AGENDA FEBRUARY 7 TH Today s agenda Welcome, Introductions, Safety and Ground Rules Discuss Process Illustrate Portfolio Comparisons Discuss Schedule & Plan future meetings SLIDE 3 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
4 SAFETY AND LOGISTICS Fire escape routes via stairways at east and west ends of hallway; please let us know if you require special handicap egress or special assistance We must obey any fire or emergency alarm; even drills/test alarms Restrooms Women's room at west end; Men's room at east end Must sign in and sign out with security desk each time you enter the building Recycling please help our efforts by dropping plastic or aluminum containers in the designated recycle bins SLIDE 4 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
5 MEETING GROUND RULES Questions and comments are welcome; please be mindful of our time constraints Comments should be respectful of all participants Use name tents to indicate you have a comment or question Reminder: today s presentation is not PNM s plan or a financial forecast, it is an illustration of the IRP modeling process SLIDE 5 FEBRUARY 2014
6 DISCLOSURE REGARDING FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS The information provided in this presentation contains scenario planning assumptions to assist in the Integrated Resource Plan public process and should not be considered statements of the company s actual plans. Any assumptions and projections contained in the presentation are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors, most of which are beyond the company s control, and many of which could have a significant impact on the company s ultimate conclusions and plans. For further discussion of these and other important factors, please refer to reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The reports are available online at The information in this presentation is based on the best available information at the time of preparation. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date on which such statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except to the extent the events or circumstances constitute material changes in the Integrated Resource Plan that are required to be reported to the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (NMPRC) pursuant to Rule New Mexico Administrative Code (NMAC). SLIDE 6 FEBRUARY 2014
7 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS PORTFOLIO MODELING AND RISK ANALYSIS WORK RSIP w/ PV-3 FIP RSIP w/o PV-3 Load High/Mid/Low High/Mid/Low High/Mid/Low Gas/Carbon High/Mid/Low High/Mid/Low High/Mid/Low Comparing least cost Strategist results IRP Most Cost Effective Portfolio will consider Sub-hourly reliability needs Renewable Portfolio Standards and EUEA Qualitative Risk Analysis SLIDE 7 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
8 IRP GOALS ITEMS TO CONSIDER WHEN BUILDING MOST COST EFFECTIVE PORTFOLIO Legislation Governing Utility IRP: New Mexico Public Utility Act et. seq. NMSA Renewable Energy Act et. seq. NMSA Efficient Use of Energy Act NMSA NMPRC Rules: Integrated Resource Plans for Electric Utilities NMAC Renewable Energy for Electric Utilities NMAC 15 % of annual retail sales in 2015 through % of annual retail sales in 2020 Diversified Portfolio: 20 % Wind, 20% Solar, 5% Other, 3% DG Energy Efficiency NMAC Reliability Standards: Planning reserve margin Operating reserves Regulation and Frequency Response Energy Imbalance management SLIDE 8 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
9 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS Load: refers to high, mid and low load scenarios discussed last week Gas and carbon: refers to PACE price scenarios Mid gas, mid carbon: scenario based on extrapolation of current conditions Low gas, low carbon: natural gas production occurs at lower cost and carbon regulations delayed compared to mid High gas, high carbon: converse of low SLIDE 9 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
10 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS MID LOAD, MID GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 14.7% 14.7% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 15.5% Red Mesa (102 MW) 15.5% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 18.7% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 18.7% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 18.3% San Juan BART 18.3% San Juan BART % Large GT (177 MW) 17.2% Large GT (177 MW) 14.5% 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) Large GT (143 MW) Solar (20 MW) % 16.8% 14.1% % 16.9% Wind (100 MW) 14.2% Wind (100 MW) % Wind (100 MW) 16.5% 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 16.3% 15.5% % 15.8% 15.0% % 15.3% 14.5% % 14.6% 15.8% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Solar (20 MW) 14.6% Solar (20 MW) 15.0% % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.6% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.2% % 14.8% 15.3% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.8% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.4% % 14.8% 17.8% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) % Small GT (85 MW) 15.6% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 16.6% % 14.0% 15.1% % 17.3% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 14.1% SLIDE 10 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
11 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS MID LOAD, HIGH GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 14.7% 14.7% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 15.5% Red Mesa (102 MW) 15.5% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 18.7% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 18.7% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 18.3% San Juan BART 18.3% San Juan BART % Large GT (177 MW) 17.5% Large GT (143 MW) 14.0% 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) Large GT (177 MW) Wind (100 MW) Wind (100 MW) Wind (100 MW) % 17.1% 14.3% Solar (20 MW) % 17.6% Solar (20 MW) 14.2% % Solar (20 MW) 17.2% 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 17.0% 15.5% % 16.5% 15.0% % 16.0% 14.5% % 15.3% 15.8% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 14.6% 15.0% % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 18.2% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 14.2% % 17.3% 15.3% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 16.4% 14.4% % 15.4% 17.8% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) % Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 14.3% 16.6% % 14.6% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.1% % 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.1% SLIDE 11 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
12 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS MID LOAD, LOW GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 14.7% 14.7% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 15.5% Red Mesa (102 MW) 15.5% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 17.3% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 18.7% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 16.9% San Juan BART 18.3% San Juan BART % Large GT (177 MW) 15.8% Large GT (143 MW) 14.5% 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) Large GT (177 MW) Solar (20 MW) % 15.4% 14.1% % 15.3% 15.9% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 14.8% 15.5% % 14.6% 15.2% % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.1% 14.8% % 14.4% Solar (20 MW) 14.3% % 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.6% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Wind (100 MW) 14.9% 14.8% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.3% Wind (100 MW) 14.2% Wind (100 MW) % 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 20.2% Large GT (143 MW) % Solar (20 MW) 14.5% 19.3% % Small GT (85 MW) 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 18.2% % 14.3% 17.1% % 17.0% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 15.5% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 16.0% 14.5% SLIDE 12 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
13 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS HIGH LOAD, MID GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 13.4% 13.4% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 13.1% Red Mesa (102 MW) 13.1% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 14.5% San Juan BART 14.5% San Juan BART % Large GT (143 MW) 14.7% Large GT (143 MW) 16.3% Large GT (143 MW) Large GT (177 MW) Large GT (177 MW) 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 14.2% 15.8% % 14.5% Solar (20 MW) 15.3% Wind (100 MW) Wind (100 MW) % 15.7% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.7% % 15.2% 14.2% % 14.3% 20.0% Large GT (143 MW) % 19.7% Large GT (143 MW) 18.7% % Solar (20 MW) 18.4% 17.4% % Large GT (143 MW) 17.0% 16.1% % 15.6% 14.7% % 14.5% 14.2% Solar (20 MW) % Wind (100 MW) 16.9% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 20.3% Large GT (177 MW) % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.6% 18.9% % 14.2% 17.5% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.1% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.7% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 16.8% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 14.4% SLIDE 13 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
14 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS HIGH LOAD, HIGH GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 13.4% 13.4% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 13.1% Red Mesa (102 MW) 13.1% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 14.5% San Juan BART 14.5% San Juan BART % Large GT (177 MW) 15.0% Large GT (143 MW) 16.6% Large GT (143 MW) 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) Large GT (177 MW) 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) Wind (100 MW) Wind (100 MW) Wind (100 MW) % Solar (20 MW) 14.4% 16.0% % 14.5% Solar (20 MW) 15.3% % Large GT (143 MW) 15.7% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.3% Solar (20 MW) % 15.2% 14.9% % 14.3% 20.7% Large GT (143 MW) % 19.7% Large GT (143 MW) 19.4% % 18.4% 18.1% % 17.0% 16.7% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.6% 15.3% % 14.5% 14.2% % Large GT (177 MW) 16.9% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 20.3% Large GT (177 MW) % 15.6% 18.9% % 14.2% 17.5% % 16.4% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 15.7% % 15.1% 14.4% SLIDE 14 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
15 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS HIGH LOAD, LOW GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 13.4% 13.4% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 13.1% Red Mesa (102 MW) 13.1% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 14.5% San Juan BART 14.5% San Juan BART % Large GT (143 MW) 14.7% Large GT (143 MW) 16.3% Large GT (143 MW) Large GT (177 MW) Large GT (177 MW) 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 14.2% 15.8% % 14.2% Solar (20 MW) 15.1% % 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.4% % 15.0% 14.6% Solar (20 MW) % 14.1% 20.4% Large GT (143 MW) % 19.5% Large GT (143 MW) 19.1% % Solar (20 MW) 18.2% 17.8% % Large GT (143 MW) 16.8% 16.5% % 15.6% Wind (100 MW) 15.3% Wind (100 MW) % 14.5% 14.2% % Wind (100 MW) 16.9% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 20.3% Large GT (177 MW) % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.6% 18.9% % 14.2% 17.5% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.1% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.7% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 16.2% Small GT (85 MW) 14.4% SLIDE 15 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
16 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS LOW LOAD, MID GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 15.2% 15.2% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 17.2% Red Mesa (102 MW) 17.2% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 21.0% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 19.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 21.1% San Juan BART 19.6% San Juan BART % Large GT (143 MW) 14.1% Large GT (177 MW) 15.4% 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) Solar (20 MW) Wind (100 MW) % 14.4% 15.7% % 15.2% 16.8% Wind (100 MW) % Wind (100 MW) 15.2% 16.8% % 15.4% 17.0% % 15.2% 16.7% % 14.5% 16.1% % 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.3% % 15.0% 14.5% % 14.0% 14.3% Solar (20 MW) % 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.2% 14.5% % 15.2% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.3% 14.6% % Solar (20 MW) 17.3% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 15.0% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 16.4% 14.2% SLIDE 16 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
17 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS LOW LOAD, HIGH GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 15.2% 15.2% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 17.2% Red Mesa (102 MW) 17.2% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 21.0% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 21.0% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 21.1% San Juan BART 21.1% San Juan BART % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.1% Large GT (177 MW) 17.1% 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (20 MW) Wind (100 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) Wind (100 MW) Wind (100 MW) % 14.4% 17.4% % 15.2% 18.2% % 15.2% 19.0% Solar (20 MW) % 15.4% 19.2% % 15.2% 18.9% % 14.5% 18.2% % 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 17.4% % 15.0% 16.6% % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.0% 15.7% Solar (20 MW) 15.0% % 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 14.2% 15.9% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 15.2% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.9% % 14.3% 15.9% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 17.3% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 14.4% % 16.4% 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) SLIDE 17 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
18 PORTFOLIO COMPARISONS LOW LOAD, LOW GAS AND CARBON Scenario Description Revised SIP with PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 Revised SIP w/o PV3 (CC) % 15.2% 15.2% % Red Mesa (102 MW) 17.2% Red Mesa (102 MW) 17.2% Red Mesa (102 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) 2015 Solar (23 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 21.0% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 19.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) Solar (40 MW) % San Juan BART 21.1% San Juan BART 19.6% San Juan BART % Large GT (143 MW) 14.1% Large GT (177 MW) 15.4% 1x1 Combined Cycle (250 MW) Palo Verde 3 (134 MW) Solar (20 MW) Wind (100 MW) % 14.4% 15.7% % 15.2% 16.5% % 15.2% 16.5% % 15.4% 16.7% % 15.2% 16.5% % 14.5% 15.8% % 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.0% % 15.0% 14.2% % 14.0% 14.3% Solar (20 MW) Wind (100 MW) % 15.4% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.7% 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) % 2nd Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.2% 14.5% Wind (100 MW) % 15.2% Aeroderivative (40 MW) 15.5% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 14.3% 14.6% % Solar (20 MW) 17.3% Reciprocating Engines (93 MW) 15.0% Aeroderivative (40 MW) % Aeroderivative (40 MW) 16.4% 14.2% SLIDE 18 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
19 NEXT MEETING AGENDA CONTINUE PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS Follow up on comments from today s meeting Look at remaining sensitivities Meeting scheduled for February 18, 9:00 AM SLIDE 19 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
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21 MAKE SURE WE HAVE UP TO DATE CONTACT INFORMATION FOR YOU for documents for s Register your on sign-in sheets for alerts of upcoming meetings and notices that we have posted new information to the website. Meetings Schedule: Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2013, 8 a.m.- noon Friday, Sept. 20, 2013, 8 a.m.- noon Thursday, Sept. 26, 2013, 8 a.m.- noon Friday, Oct. 4, 2013, 8 a.m.- noon Friday, Nov. 15, 2013, 8 a.m.- noon SLIDE 21 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
22 IRP GOALS BALANCE SLIDE 22 FEBRUARY 7, 2014
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