GAS TO POWER - BRAZIL

Transcription

1 23 rd WORLD GAS CONFERENCE AMSTERDAM GAS TO POWER - BRAZIL Rogerio Manso Executive Manager Marketing and Trading Gas & Energy manso@petrobras.com.br June 6 th, 2006

2 Disclaimer The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.

3 ( Data) Brazilian Power Grid Continental Dimension Total Installed Generation Capacity: 94 GW Thermal 14.4 GW 15% Total NG 8.4 GW 9% Petrobras 3.9 GW 4% 85% hydroelectric power plants Average Power Consumption 48.6 GW Growth Rate 5% per year Transmission grid is well developed 80 thousand km of transmission lines; 40 thousand km of lines will be constructed until ,000 kms

4 Petrobras plants/ perceived role Reduce the risk of future energy deficits Stabilize tension levels (market position) TERMO CEARÁ 225 MW - 1,37 MM m 3 /d VALE DO AÇU 310 MW / 450 t/h 2,1 MM m 3 /d TERMOBAHIA 180 MW / 360 t/h 1,37 MM m 3 /d FAFEN 146 MW / 125 t/h 0,55 MM m 3 /d IBIRITÉ 234 MW - 1,0 MM m 3 /d TRÊS LAGOAS 364 MW - 1,87 MM m 3 /d ARAUCÁRIA 469 MW - 2,1 MM m 3 /d BARBOSA L. SOBRINHO 382 MW - 2,3 MM m 3 /d NORTE FLUMINENSE 929 MW - 5,0 MM m 3 /d NOVA PIRATININGA 406 MW - 2,8 MM m 3 /d MACAÉ MERCHANT 923 MW - 5,5 MM m 3 /d TERMO RIO MW / 330 t/h 5,0 MM m 3 /d CCBS-RPBC 216 MW / 400 t/h 1,1 MM m 3 /d Co-Generation Plants Thermo Power Plants CANOAS 251 MW - 1,1 MM m 3 /d

5 Projected Energy Generation Capacity Jan/ GW Natural Gas 9% Nuclear; 2% Others (PROINFRA, etc.); 3% Hydroeletric 73% Others 10% Imports 8% Diesel; 2% Biomass; 0% Coal; 2% Fuel Oil; 1% Jan/ GW Natural Gas 9% Nuclear; 2% Others (PROINFRA, etc.); 4% Hydroeletric 73% Others 12% Imports 6% Diesel; 2% Biomass; 1% Coal; 2% Fuel Oil; 1% Source: EPE

6 Relevant Factors Gas availability Gas Cost PPA Structure

7 Gas availability Pólo Mexilhão (SP) Pólo Mexilhão (SP) Pólo - BS (RJ) (RJ) Pólo BS (RJ) Petrobras & Partners Other Companies Pólo (SP) Pólo Merluza Merluza (SP) (SP) Pólo Pólo (SP, RJ) Pólo Centro Centro (SP, (SP, RJ) RJ) Pólo Pólo Sul (SP, PR, SC) Pólo Sul Sul (SP, (SP, PR, PR, SC) SC) (Área ( de km 2Area km 2 de 0 a 3000m)

8 Gas availability Petrobras & Partners Other Companies Cacimbas Peroá/Cangoa Golfinho ESS Canapu Parque das Baleias Cabiúnas 120 km Namorado ESS-130 Roncador 120 km

9 Main New Oil and Gas Projects Barracuda (P-43) Caratinga (P-48) Golfinho Mod Piranema 2006 Manati 2006 Peroa Cangoá Marlim Sul Phase 2 Golfinho Mod Mod 2 (P-51) Urucu 2007 Roncador ( P-54) 2007 Mexilhão 2008 Frade 2009 BS Roncador ( P-55) Peroá- Cangoa (PPER) Albacora Leste (P-50) Jubarte Phase 1 (P-34) 2006 Merluza 2008 Marlim Leste (P-53) 2008 Albacora Expansion 2010 Golfinho (FPSO 3) 2010 Non-associated Gas Associated Gas RJS-409 Espadarte 2007 Roncador (P-52) 2007 Jubarte Phase 2 (P-57) 2010

10 Natural Gas Supply Million m 3 /day ,0 30,0 26,5 31,4 30,0 43,0 4,0 30,0 54,3 11,0 30,0 61,5 11,0 30,0 69, Domestic Prodution Pipeline Imports Additional domestic production and LNG

11 Investments in Gas & Energy US$ billion Petrobras Partners Total % Partnership Total % E&P % Downstream % Gas & Energy % International % Total Investment: US$ 16.3 billion through 2010

12 Natural Gas Demand Monthly Sales Volumes - 1,000 m3/day Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Industrial Vehicular Residential Commercial Cogeneration Power Generation CNG

13 Natural Gas Growth Million m3/day ,3 13, ,7 4,6 19,6 6,5 37,9 5,4 22,9 9,6 39,1 46, Gas to Power Industrial Auto/other uses

14 Drilling Rigs Market Producer Price Index Industry Data (jan/2006) 400 Industry: Drilling oil and gas wells Product: Drilling oil and gas wells Industry: Crude petroleum & natural gas extr Product: Crude Petroleum U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (Site: )

15 Non-Associated Gas Growth 3,0%1,3% 2,7% 3,0% 2,7% 97,3% 97,0% 98,7% 85,9% 84,7% 86,7% 83,8% 82,0% 81,2% 82,6% 80,3% 74,9% 72,5% 70,2% 70,3% 73,6% 73,5% 70,9% 59,8% 58,3% 50,2% 15,9% 50,5% 15,8% 36,5% 36,5% 15,4% 16,5% 14,8% 25,1% 27,5% 29,8% 29,7% 24,8% 33,8% 33,7% 18,0% 18,8% 19,7% 25,3% 27,0% 14,1% 15,3% 13,3% 16,2% 17,4% 26,4% 20,2% 6,3% 14,2% ASSOCIATED NON-ASSOCIATED IMPORTED By % of Natural Gas Consumption will be of Non-Associated Gas

16 Points for Improvement Duration of Contracts Indexation of Gas Supply Costs Flexibility x Inflexibility Tax Reductions Compensation of Tax Credits

17 Site selection: South/Southeast LNG Regas Project South/Southeast TEBIG CARAGUATATUBA GUANABARA B. SEPETIBA SÃO FRANCISCO DO SUL

18 Guanabara Bay LNG Regas Guanabara Bay Regas Terminal Pipeline 24 Option 2 16,500 m Option 1 14,500 m LNG Regas Terminal

19 LNG Regas Project Northeast Site Selection: Northeast PECÉM SUAPE ARATU

20 Pecem LNG Regas Terminal Pecem LNG Regas Project

21 Final Remarks Hydro-dominated market progressively understands the heavy investments for the gas chain to supply power plants; PPAs progressively adapted to gas market costs, prices and investments; Gas-Energy convergence through continuous dialogue and acceptance of hydro-thermal differences, focused on complementarity; New gas-fired power generation growth in Brazil dependent on the ability of the new PPAs to stimulate gas production on a level that fulfills both power and non-power segments.

22 Dank U