Mitigating the Technical Risks in Project Lifetime

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1 Solar Bankability Final Public Workshop 08 February 2017 Mitigating the Technical Risks in Project Lifetime Ulrike Jahn, Magnus Herz TÜV Rheinland Energy Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union

2 Technical Risk Framework A B C D Risk identification Risk assessment Risk management Risk controlling Risk Mitigation Risk Transfer Solar Bankability Final Workshop

3 Risk CAPEX OPEX Risk CAPEX OPEX Risk Mitigation 100% ΣCPNs = ~ 120 Euros/kW/a 100% Who bears the cost? Who bears the risk? Risk minimization ΣCPNs = ~ XX Euros/kW/a 0% 0 /kwp 0 /kwp/a 0% 0 /kwp 0 /kwp/a CAPEX & OPEX depending on mitigation measures CAPEX & OPEX depending on mitigation measures Solar Bankability Final Workshop

4 Mitigation Measure Approach List of 8 defined MMs, their mitigation factors and affected parameters Preventive measures Mitigation Measure Component testing PV modules Design review + construction monitoring Qualification of EPC Affected Parameter number of failures number of failures number of failures Advanced monitoring system time to detection Corrective measures Basic monitoring system Advanced inspection Visual inspection time to detection time to detection time to detection Spare part management time to repair/substitution Solar Bankability Final Workshop

5 Fact Sheets for Mitigation Measures Solar Bankability Final Workshop

6 Mitigation Measure Approach CPN new = CPN mit + Cost mit CPN mit is the sum of the mitigated CPN costs Cost mit are the costs incurred for the mitigation measures. CPN mit = C down,mit + C fix,mit C down,td,mit = α n fail /n comp β t td /t ref PL M PPA Y = α β C down,td C fix,mit = α n fail [C det/mit + C rep/sub + C trans + (C lab t fix )] = α C fix Solar Bankability Final Workshop

7 Mitigation Measure Approach List of 8 defined MMs, their mitigation factors and affected parameters Mitigation Measure Affected Parameter Risk Mitigation Factor Component testing PV modules Design review + construction monitoring number of failures number of failures Qualification of EPC number of failures α Advanced monitoring system time to detection β Basic monitoring system time to detection β Advanced inspection time to detection β Visual inspection time to detection β Spare part management time to repair/substitution γ α α Solar Bankability Final Workshop

8 Mitigation Measure Approach Impact Classes RMF (α,β,γ) High 99.5 % Medium 50.0 % Low 25.0 % Definition of impact classes with respect to risk mitigation factor (RMF) No 0.0 % Design Advanced Basic Spare Part Component Risk Componen Review + Qualificati Monitorin Monitorin Advanced Visual Managem t Testing constructio on of EPC g system g system Inspection Inspection ent Modules Snail track High No No No No Medium Medium High Modules Improperly installed No High Medium Low No Medium Medium High Modules Glass breakage Medium Medium Low No No Medium Medium High Modules Broken module No High Medium Medium No Medium Medium High Modules Theft of modules No No No High High Medium Medium High Modules Module damaged due to fire No No No High High Medium Medium High Modules Failure bypass diode and junction box High No No High Medium Medium Medium High Modules Shading No Low No High Medium Medium Medium No Modules Soiling No No No High Medium Medium Medium No Modules Cell cracks High Low No No No Medium No High Modules Delamination Low No No No No Medium No High Modules Defective backsheet High No No No Solar No Bankability Medium Medium Final Workshop High Modules Hotspot High No No No No Medium No High

9 Mitigation Measure Approach 8 defined mitigation measures with medium, low and high cost scenarios Mitigation measure Component testing PV modules Design review + construction monitoring Qualification of EPC Advanced monitoring system Basic Monitoring system Defined costs Scenario 1 (medium costs) 3 /kwp (0.15 /kwp/year) 20 /kwp (1 /kwp/year) 3 /kwp (0.15 /kwp/year) Defined costs Scenario 2 (low costs) 1 /kwp (0.05 /kwp/year) 10 /kwp (0.5 /kwp/year) 1 /kwp (0.05 /kwp/year) Defined costs Scenario 3 (high costs) 10 /kwp (0.5 /kwp/year) 40 /kwp (2 /kwp/year) 10 /kwp (0.5 /kwp/year) 2 /kwp/year 1 /kwp/year 3 /kwp/year 0.5 /kwp/year 0 /kwp/year 1 /kwp/year Advanced Inspection 2 /kwp/year 1 /kwp/year 3 /kwp/year Visual Inspection 1 /kwp/year 0.5 /kwp/year 2 /kwp/year Spare part management 10 /kwp (0.5 /kwp/year) 2 /kwp (0.1 /kwp/year) 20 /kwp (1 /kwp/year) Solar Bankability Final Workshop

Risk Reduction Example before Detection Input Data for Risk Reduction Example (PID) Power Occurrence Failure Rate Failure Rate Initial Degradation degradation PPA Risk plants components Power Loss

10 Risk Reduction Example before Detection Input Data for Risk Reduction Example (PID) Power Occurrence Failure Rate Failure Rate Initial Degradation degradation PPA Risk plants components Power Loss rate rate PID 10% 20% 20% 5% 5% 0.10 /kwh Risk Mitigation Mitigation cost (year 0) Risk after 5 years Reduced risk after 5 years Savings after 5 years PID PID Test 0.6 /kwp 7.35 /kwp 1.35 /kwp 6.00 /kwp Solar Bankability Final Workshop

11 Impact of Applied Mitigation Measures on and Ranking of CPN Top 10 risks with and without mitigation measures in CPN Solar Bankability Final Workshop

Impact of Applied Mitigation Measures New CPN results of mitigation measure combinations for different cost scenarios compared to CPN without mitigation measures Preventive measures (PMM) higher

12 Impact of Applied Mitigation Measures New CPN results of mitigation measure combinations for different cost scenarios compared to CPN without mitigation measures Preventive measures (PMM) higher impact than corrective measures CMM No PMM Qualif. EPC+CMM Comp. Test+CMM Design rev.+cmm Comp test+epc+cmm Design rev+qualif EPC +CMM Comp test+design rev.+cmm Comp test+design rev.+qualif EPC +CMM Solar Bankability Final Workshop

13 Impact of Applied Mitigation Measures New CPN results of mitigation measure combinations of different LOSS scenarios based on high PPA compared to CPN without MM Solar Bankability Final Workshop

14 Impact of Applied Mitigation Measures New CPN results of mitigation measure combinations of different LOSS scenarios based on low PPA compared to CPN without MM Solar Bankability Final Workshop

15 To be concluded 1. Mitigation measures have been identified along the value chain and assigned to various technical risks. 2. In this project we have aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures into the framework for the assessment of the economic impact of technical risk. 3. The overall methodology was created to allow the estimation of the economic impact of failures on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and on business models of PV projects. Solar Bankability Final Workshop

Thank You! Ulrike Jahn (TÜV Rheinland Energy) This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649997.

16 Thank You! Ulrike Jahn (TÜV Rheinland Energy) This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No The content of this report reflects only the author s view and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union

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