Estimating the cost of electrification technology options to aid electricity access scale up: The case of Ghana

Transcription

1 The African Electrification Initiative Practitioner Workshop, Dakar, Senegal November 14 th 16 th, 2011 Estimating the cost of electrification technology options to aid electricity access scale up: The case of Ghana Isaac ADU-POKU Research Associate The Energy Center, KNUST Kumasi, Ghana TEC, KNUST

2 Outline: Background The concept of the Network Planner Model Model Application: the case of Ghana Results Conclusion

3 Background Increasing access to electricity has proven difficult and expensive in sub-saharan Africawhere population is projected to be growing at a faster rate (Mulder and Tembe, 2008). Energy agencies spend substantial time and resources to undertake studies to obtain reasonably accurate estimates of electrification cost for communities. There is the need to develop tools to make rapid assessment of cost-effectiveness of grid expansion and other decentralised technology options for electrifying communities.

4 The concept of the Network Planner Model The Network Planner is a webbased accessible model developed by Modi Research Group. The model combines data on electricity demands and costs with variability in population data and other socio-economic data to compute detailed demand estimates for all communities in a dataset.

5 The concept of the Network Planner Model The model then computes cost projections of three electrification options (grid, minigrid and off-grid) and proposes the optimal cost-effective option for electrifying communities within a specified time horizon. This helps planners to prioritise areas where grid expansion is a cost-optimized option and where other decentralised options are preferred.

6 The concept of the Network The model incorporates Geographical Information System (GIS) tools to perform spatial processing and analyses. Results are generated at any geographical scale based on the availability of data used in the modelling. The model places more emphasis on electrification expansion rather than intensification. Planner Model

7 How does the model work? Data Requirement : 1) Costs parameters Grid (MV & LV) : Wire, Poles, Transformers, Maintenance Mini-grid : Generators, Fuel, Maintenance Off-grid/solar: PV panels, Batteries & battery replacement 2) Demographic parameters Population, Population Growth, Mean household size

8 Data Requirement 3) Demand parameters Demand for households Demand for many sectors (productive, health, education) 4) Spatial Parameters: Spatial location of communities and pre-existing network Mean Inter-household Distance (MID) 5) Socio-economic parameters Interest Rate, Elasticity of Demand, Economic Growth, Time horizon

9 The Model Application: The case of Ghana The modelling was done on a regional basis as base year with a planning period of 10 years. In all a total of 2,600 un-electrified communities was used for the modelling exercise. Modelling exercise was run in 2 folds Base scenario Sensitivity analysis TEC, KNUST

10 SN DATA DATA REQUIRED SOURCE(S) CATEGORY 1 Low voltage Lines Cost per meter or kilometer of lines Ministry of Energy, Electricity Equipment costs (per connection) Equipment O&M cost Line lifetime Line O&M cost per year Company of Ghana, Northern Electricity Department 2 Grid Extension Transformer Capacities Available (kw) Ministry of Energy, Electricity Company of Ghana, Northern Electricity Department Distribution loss Installation cost per connection Medium Voltage Line cost per meter Medium Voltage Line lifetime Medium Voltage Lines O&M costs per year Cost of transformers Transformer lifetime Transformer O&M costs 3 Diesel Generator Available System Capacities (kw) Mantrac; other companies Diesel fuel (litres) consumed per kwh Diesel generator cost per kwh of energy produced Diesel generator installation cost (as fraction of generator cost) Diesel generator lifetime Diesel generator O&M cost per year (as fraction of generator cost) Distribution Loss 4 Solar System Available System Capacities (kw) Ministry of Energy Renewable PV balance (other accessories, excluding battery) cost as fraction of panel cost PV panel lifetime PV balance (other accessories, excluding battery) life time PV battery cost per kwh PV battery lifetime PV battery kwh per PV component kw PV component effieiciency loss PV component O&M cost per year as fraction of component cost PV panel cost per PV component kilowatt Energy Directorate, Solar Energy Companies; KNUST Solar Laboratory 5 Social, Economic and Finance metrics 6 Electricity demand and/or consumption data (in kw and kwh) 7 Price/cost data for both Grid and offgrid (solar, diesel) technologies 8 Geo-spatial location data Economic Growth Rate Population Growth Rates Electricity Demand Growth Elasticity of Electricity Demand Interest Rate Residential Social infrastructure (schools, health facilities, government offices, etc Commercial and industry Public uses (such as street lighting) Materials for grid extension (poles, wire, transformers, etc.), and for off-grid (solar and diesel generation equipment) Recurring costs (operations & maintenance), and soft costs such as system design and installation Electricity connection fees for households, businesses (single-phase and three-phase) Coordinates of Communities and locations of existing grid networks plus the population data for those communities. Ghana Statistical Services; Bank of Ghana; Utilities Electricity Company of Ghana, Northern Electricity Department, Ghana Statistical Services Electricity Company of Ghana, Northern Electricity Department, Ministry of Energy, Energy Commission Ghana Statistical Services, Ministry of Energy, Utilities

11 Ghana already has extensive network coverage which was useful for running the model

12 Results - Regional Analysis Region Number of modelled Communities Percentage of these Communities by region to be electrified by each technology Cost Of Off-Grid ($) Cost Of Mini-Grid ($) Cost Of Grid ($) (10yr, initial + recurring) (10yr, initial + recurring) (10yr, initial + recurring) Off-Grid Mini- Grid Grid Total Per HH Total Per HH Total Per HH Ashanti 221 5% 15% 81% 3,121,441 3,563 8,320,534 3,224 49,685,160 2,213 Brong Ahafo 195 4% 21% 75% 2,562,549 3,564 10,327,660 3,255 48,416,833 2,152 Central 175 1% 3% 96% 401,384 3,431 2,229,429 3,101 54,516,496 1,886 Eastern 247 2% 6% 92% 1,701,894 3,598 3,540,105 3,192 44,607,487 2,120 Greater Accra 11-9% 91% ,546 3,024 2,420,494 1,760 Northern % 10% 70% 28,575,697 3,491 16,451,983 3, ,249,319 2,397 Upper East 299 1% 1% 98% 706,083 3, ,066 3,109 59,990,598 1,882 Upper West % 9% 81% 7,709,352 3,378 7,009,443 3,229 54,001,590 2,252 Volta 179 2% 2% 96% 1,839,250 3,444 2,374,145 3,166 80,057,241 2,031 Western 319-6% 94% - - 5,997,600 3,334 95,648,882 2,126 High % 21% 98% 28,575,697 3,598 16,451,983 3, ,249,319 2,397 Average 260 6% 8% 87% 5,827,206 3,483 5,762,851 3,194 59,159,410 2,082 TEC, KNUST Low 11 1% 1% 70% 401,384 3, ,546 3,024 2,420,494 1,760

13 Regional Analysis At the end of a 10 year period, the cost-optimized option for majority of the unelectrified communities in each region will be grid connection, accounting for more than 70% of the total un-electrified communities in each region. This can be attributed to the extensive pre-existing grid network coverage over the country, which reduces the distances and thus the costs, to connect remaining communities.

14 Results - Proposed Grid length and Levelised Cost of Electrification (LCOE) Analysis

15 Results - Total and Initial cost of all combined electrification technologies at different penetration rates Region Cost Of ALL ELECTRIFICATION (Grid, Solar off-grid and Diesel mini-grid) Penetration Rate = 100% Penetration Rate = 60% Penetration Rate = 30% Total Initial Total Initial Total Initial Ashanti $61,127,135 $36,208,825 $43,951,886 $25,993,681 $27,144,968 $11,518,530 Brong Ahafo $61,307,042 $33,660,745 $44,224,255 $23,585,884 $28,520,598 $11,739,213 Central $57,147,309 $33,532,927 $41,096,753 $24,668,846 $25,779,605 $14,745,978 Eastern $49,849,486 $32,049,291 $37,226,340 $24,584,873 $22,794,953 $9,853,101 Greater Accra Northern $2,859,040 $2,021,299 $2,124,197 $1,239,306 $1,346,978 $718,903 $147,276,999 $85,568,248 $103,512,748 $53,854,385 $67,212,069 $26,644,850 Upper East $61,635,747 $37,605,641 $44,679,019 $28,367,547 $29,885,671 $17,569,913 Upper West $68,720,385 $40,619,900 $48,699,311 $30,966,358 $30,324,558 $12,604,470 Volta $84,270,636 $43,637,225 $57,834,609 $30,721,383 $37,482,525 $20,120,191 Western $101,646,482 $60,761,953 $73,454,997 $43,376,633 $46,728,304 $21,580,874 TOTAL $695,840,261 $405,666,052 $496,804,115 $287,358,895 $317,220,229 $147,096,023

16 Results - Costs Analysis The table revealed that the total discounted cost of electrification at each penetration rate differs widely across each region and follows the same pattern. It will require an initial discounted cost of all the electrification options of $405,666,052 to electrify all the communities to achieve a 100% penetration rate in Ghana as shown in the table below. PR at 100% PR at 60% PR at 30% Total $695,840,261 $496,804,115 $317,220,229 Initial $405,666,052 $287,358,895 $147,096,023 A lower penetration rate increases the competitiveness of decentralized options relative to grid connections.

17 Conclusions Model results can be used by decision makers and electricity planners to make investment estimates and meet requirements for a range of electrification programmes given various technology options, governmental policies, fuel cost and so on. By 2020, the model results revealed that majority of the un-electrified communities in Ghana will be viable for grid electrification In addition, government and/or private investors can fall on this model results to help set investment priorities for energy planning to meet electrification targets.

18 Thank you