AERO2K. Aviation Emissions Inventory for 2002 and Chris Eyers EC-AERODAYS, Vienna June Emissions from Aviation

Transcription

1 AERO2K AERO2K Aviation Emissions Inventory for 2002 and 2025 Chris Eyers EC-AERODAYS, Vienna June 2006

2 Question 2 How many tonnes of CO2 are emitted from aircraft per year? 500 tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes More? Answer comes later

3 Contents 3 Recent aviation emission inventories The AERO2K Inventory 2002 Results from AERO2K Comparison with other inventory results 2025 Results from AERO2K

4 Recent Aviation Emissions Inventories 4 Recent Inventories NASA/Boeing 1976, 1984, 1992, 1999 DLR ANCAT/EC Recent inventory forecasts 2015 NASA/Boeing, DLR, ANCAT/EC2 Global aviation emissions inventories are computer intensive tasks. Greater computing power allows better assumptions AERO2k uses this greater available computing power to provide a new inventory for 2002 and a new forecast for 2025

5 AERO2k Inventory Project Overview Project Partners: QinetiQ (UK, Co-ordinator), DLR (Germany), Manchester Metropolitan University (UK), NLR (The Netherlands), Department of Trade and Industry (UK) Airbus France (France) Eurocontrol (European Agency) AERO2K was partially funded by EC Framework 5 Programme 5

6 The AERO2k Inventory AERO2K creates a database of global aviation emissions for the year 2002 based on: Actual 2002 aircraft movements database Updated aircraft fuel usage predictions based on PIANO modelling tool Updated engine emissions data New particulate and distance flown data AERO2k produces a forecast of global emissions for 2025 based on predicted aircraft movements Fuel consumption (nm/kg) Particle Number per Gram of Soot 1,8E+16 1,6E+16 1,4E+16 1,2E+16 1E+16 8E+15 6E E+15 EI NOx [g/kg] A ETMS 0 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 FUEL FLOW [kg/s] AERO2k FL370 99%SAR 2E PIANO FL370 M BADA FL370 M0.81 0Based on 6000publicly AERO2k FL390 99% SAR PIANO FL390 M0.81 Altitude BADA [m] FL390 M available data Uses latest available data from DLR Aircraft Weight (kg) 6 ICAO LTO-Zyklus SLS, ISA SLS, ISA+20K SLS, ISA-20K ft, Ma=0.5, ISA ft, Ma=0.86, ISA ft, Ma=0.86, ISA+20K AMOC

7 AERO2k Inventory Flight Trajectory - Improvement over Great Circle Assumption 7 B Singapore to London

8 AERO2K Inventory Taxi Times (Europe) 8 LTO times-in-mode for individual airports are computed. Taxi Time (mins) Taxi In AVG Taxi IN Taxi Out 5 0

9 AERO2K Inventory Data Integration 9

10 AERO2K Inventory Allocation onto global grid 10 Fuel and emissions are allocated onto global grids. latitude The method determines length of path flown in each cell (e.g. blue line on flight path shown). Fuel and emissions allocated accordingly. longitude

11 AERO2k Output Global Gridded Data for 2002 and 2025 Distance flown - new Fuel used CO2, H2O, NOx, CO, HC Estimate of particulate mass and number new 2. Global, regional and national totals for these parameters Civil Aviation [1] Fuel used in departures from European Airports Military Aviation Total Distance Flown Nautical miles x 10-9 ) Fuel Used (Tg) CO 2 (Tg) 492 Asia and Pacific n/a Eastern and Southern Africa European and North n/a Atlantic Middle East H 2 O (Tg) CO (Tg) NO x (Tg) HC (Tg) Soot (Tg).0039 n/a n/a Particles (X ) 4.03 n/a n/a North American, Central American and Caribbean South American Western and Central Africa

12 AERO2k Inventory - Application 12 Applications of AERO2K Climate impact modelling Gridded Results Policy discussion Global and regional totals SBSTA IPCC/ICAO A firm basis for policy and scenario assessment Results - Next slides

13 13 AERO2k Results Gridded results are available at: ac.uk/aero2k 2002 internal and Eastbound traffic from Europe

14 AERO2k Military Gridded Results Military Fuel usage - Global

15 AERO2k Results 2002 Global totals 15 Distance Flown Fuel Used CO 2 H 2 O CO NO x HC Soot Particles Nautical miles x 10-9 ) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (X ) Civil Aviation [1] Military Aviation n/a n/a n/a Total n/a n/a n/a [1] Civil aviation includes IFR flights only

16 AERO2K Global Totals 2002 Comparison with other inventories 3 NOx Emissions 16 Fuel Used NOx Emissions (Tg) 2 1 NASA Military DLR ANCAT 1992 AERO2K Fuel Used (Tg) NASA NASA DLR DLR ANCAT ANCAT AERO2K Military Military CO Emissions (Tg) HC Emissions (Tg) CO Emissions HC Emissions NASA Military AERO2K NASA Military AERO2K

17 AERO2K Global Totals 2025 Comparison with other forecasts 5.00 NOx Emissions 17 Fuel Used NOx Emissions (Tg) NASA DLR ANCAT AERO2K Military Fuel Used (Tg) NASA DLR ANCAT AERO2K Military CO Emissions (Tg) CO Emissions HC Emissions NASA AERO2K Military HC Emissions(Tg) NASA AERO2K Military

18 AERO2K Global Totals Comparison with FESG scenarios to NOx Emissions (Tg) Fuel Used (Tg) High High Demand Demand Medium Med Demand Demand Low Demand Demand NASA NASA DLR DLR ANCAT ANCAT Military Military FESG FESG

19 AERO2K Global Totals Comparison with EDF scenarios to AERO2K AERO2K

20 Future Application - General 20 AERO2K software tool can be re-run or developed further to produce, for example, selected datasets (eg national emissions, by aircraft type, by airline) other forecasts (eg using FESG forecast) other base years or forecast years comparison of data with other inventories/methodologies (UNFCCC) In the meantime, the AERO2K data provides a firm foundation for modelling of aviation climate effects and for generation of scenario datasets to inform policy decisions Results and reports are available at:

21 Stratification of NOx emissions (2002) 21 Source: Marcus Koehler, University of Cambridge

22 22 Thank you

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24 AERO2K Contact 24 For further information, contact: Chris Eyers Gas Turbine Technologies QinetiQ Farnborough Hants UK GU34 9ND Tel: