A Vehicle Overturning Model: Forecasting Risk of Disruption on the UK Road Network during Winter Storms

Transcription

1 A Vehicle Overturning Model: Forecasting Risk of Disruption on the UK Road Network during Winter Storms Rebecca Hemingway 15 th EMS Annual Meeting & 12 th ECAM, 7 th -11 th September 2015, Sofia, Bulgaria ECAM5/ASI20: Reducing Weather Risks to Transport: air, seas and land Wednesday 9 th September, EMS2015-7

2 Contents National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) Wind Warnings The Vehicle Overturning Model Winter case studies, impacts and verification 12 th /13 th February th January 2015 Conclusions

3 October NSWWS Wind Warnings 2012/2013 and 2013/ / /2014 November October November December February January Number Days % Green Yellow Amber Red Total Number Days 151 December February January Number Days Total Number 9.9% 151 Days 25.2% % Green Yellow Amber Red 1 0.7

4 October NSWWS Wind Warnings 2013/2014 and 2014/ / /2015 November October November December February January Number Days % Green Yellow Amber Red Total Number Days 151 December February January Number Days Total Number 25.2% 151 Days 21.2% % Green Yellow Amber Red 0 0.7

5 Vehicle OverTurning (VOT) Model

6 Natural Hazards Partnerships Hazard Impact Model Framework Aim: Combine data and expertise from Partners to identify the impact on populations, areas and assets from a range of natural hazards

7 Vehicle OverTurning (VOT) Model Risk Algorithm Hazard Vulnerability Exposure Probability of wind gusts exceeding thresholds x Altitude Number of lanes Other features e.g. bridge Road orientation x Number of vehicles on road

8 Case Study: 12 th February 2014

9 Maximum Risk of Disruption on the UK Road Network Low Risk Low - Medium Risk Medium - High Risk High Risk From 03Z run on 12 th February

10 Vehicle OverTurning (VOT) Model 12 th /13 th February Z 18Z 22Z 02Z Maximum Risk of Disruption on the UK Road Network Low Risk Low - Medium Risk Medium - High Risk High Risk From 03Z run on 12 th February

11 VOT Verification 12 th /13 th February vehicle overturning and travel disruption events recorded 20 Weather Observation Website Travel Disruption 13 News and Social media e.g. Twitter 12 Highways Agency Vehicle Overturning Reports National Severe Weather Warning Service warning issued 12 th February Low Risk Low - Medium Risk Medium - High Risk High Risk

12 Winter 2013/2014 Summary

13 40% hit rate (red and amber roads) for all 341 impacts reported rising to 83% when yellow roads also included 55% hit rate rising to 87.4% when yellow included when WOW impacts removed Performs well for large storms Performs less well during coastal events Low Risk Low - Medium Risk Medium - High Risk High Risk

14 Case Study: 9 th January 2015

15 NSWWS Wind Warnings Morning 8 th January

16 VOT 9 th January 02Z issued in guidance documentation

17 Morning 8 th January 2015

18 VOT Verification 8 th /9 th January vehicle overturning and travel disruption events recorded 10 Weather Observation Website Travel Disruption 5 News and Social media e.g. Twitter 3 Highways Agency Vehicle Overturning Reports A66 closed to HGVs due to wind National Severe Weather Warning Service warning issued 8 th January Low Risk Low - Medium Risk Medium - High Risk High Risk

19 Summary The VOT model is performing well and is well liked by meteorologists Verification is good for winter 2013/2014 Future plans include data updates, Northern Ireland and colour calibration Aim of the HIM is to create more VOT style models for a variety of hazards and assets And winter 2015/2016?

20 Thank You!