Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet

Transcription

1 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet

2 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IRELAND (TII) PUBLICATIONS About TII Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) is responsible for managing and improving the country s national road and light rail networks. About TII maintains an online suite of technical publications, which is managed through the website. The contents of is clearly split into Standards and Technical documentation. All documentation for implementation on TII schemes is collectively referred to as TII Publications (Standards), and all other documentation within the system is collectively referred to as (Technical). Document Attributes Each document within has a range of attributes associated with it, which allows for efficient access and retrieval of the document from the website. These attributes are also contained on the inside cover of each current document, for reference. TII Publication Title Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet TII Publication Number Activity Planning & Evaluation (PE) Document Set Technical Stream Project Appraisal Guidelines (PAG) Publication Date Document Number Historical Reference PAG Unit 6.11 Website This document is part of the TII publications system all of which is available free of charge at For more information on the system or to access further documentation, please refer to the website. TII Authorisation and Contact Details This document has been authorised by the Director of Professional Services, Transport Infrastructure Ireland. For any further guidance on the system, please contact the following: Contact: Standards and Research Section, Transport Infrastructure Ireland Postal Address: Parkgate Business Centre, Parkgate Street, Dublin 8, D08 DK10 Telephone: infopubs@tii.ie

3 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IRELAND (TII) PUBLICATIONS Activity: Stream: TII Publication Title: TII Publication Number: Planning & Evaluation (PE) Project Appraisal Guidelines (PAG) Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Publication Date: Set: Technical Contents Table 1. Introduction Economic and Environmental Parameters Traffic Input Parameters Collision Input Parameters Motorway Service Area Parameters Data Sources Page i

4 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IRELAND (TII) PUBLICATIONS Updates to resulting in changes to Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Date: February 2017 Page No: 2 Section No: 2 Amendment Details: Inconsistency in values in terms of CAF corrected. Page ii

5 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet 1. Introduction The National Parameters Value Sheet summaries the values for the economic and traffic related parameters to be used in the cost benefit analysis of Irish road schemes. This document is split into the following sections: Section 2 Economic and Environmental Parameters; Section 3 Traffic Input Parameters; Section 4 - Collision Input Parameters; Section 5 Motorway Service Area Parameters; and Section 6 Data Sources. Within sections below costs are presented as factor or market costs. Market costs include tax and its relationship to factor costs may be defined as follows: Market cost = Factor Costs. Page 1

6 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet 2. Economic and Environmental Parameters Parameter Table 1: Key Parameters Value Present Value Year 2011 Discount Rate 5% per annum Appraisal Period 30 years1 Consumer Price Index Available from Shadow Pricing Public Funds 1.3 Labour 0.8 Road Type Table 2: Maintenance Costs (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) COBA Maintenance Type Maintenance Cost ( 1,000/km/year) Standard 2-lane with H/S with central reserve without central reserve Dual Carriageway/Motorway Table 3: Value of Time (VOT) (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) Type of Vehicle Occupant Journey Purpose Value in /Hour Driver Working Passenger Working Car Driver Commuting Driver Other Non-Working Time Passenger Commuting Passenger Other Non-Working Time Driver Working Passenger Working LGV Driver Commuting Driver Other Non-Working Time Passenger Commuting Passenger Other Non-Working Time Other Goods Vehicles Driver Working Time Driver Working Time Public Service Vehicle Passenger Working Time Passenger Commuting Passenger Other Non-Working Time Table 4: Value of Time Growth Factors (Annual) Year Annual Growth Factor *An annual growth factor of 1.01 equates to a growth of 1% per annum. 1 For large projects with long preparation time horizons, the 30 year time period should begin from the year in which benefits accrue, with the appraisal also including the years when costs commence. A large capital project with a four year construction period should be appraised over a 34 year period (4+30). Residual value should be utilised where appropriate based on design life of the scheme, further information is available in Unit 6.1 Page 2

7 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Collision Severity Table 5: Average Value of Prevention of Collisions (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) Casualty related costs Lost output Human costs Medical & Ambulance Collision related costs Gardaí cost Damage to property Insurance & admin Total Fatal 701,881 1,338,656 1,205 21,521 13, ,077,589 Serious 27, ,012 16,382 2,519 6, ,412 Slight 2,858 13,617 1, , ,053 Damage only , ,456 Table 6: Collision Costs (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) Collision Type Value ( ) Fatal 2,310,500 Serious Injury 331,400 Slight Injury 31,100 Damage only 2,500 Table 7: Value of Collisions Growth Factors Year Annual Growth Factor Table 8: Fuel Costs (2011 Prices) Fuel Factor Cost ( per litre) Market Price ( per litre) Cost of petrol Cost of diesel Table 9: Fuel Consumption (litres per 100km) 2013 Vehicle Type Urban (litres/km) Rural (litres/km) Motorway (litres/km) Petrol Car Diesel Car Petrol LGV Diesel LGV OGV Buses M & M/Cs Page 3

8 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Table 10: Vehicle Operating Costs (non-fuel) (Factor costs, 2011 Prices) Vehicle Category Non-Fuel Parameters a 1 (c/km) b 1 (c/hr) Work Petrol Work Diesel Car Work Electric Non-Work Petrol Non-Work Diesel Non-Work Electric Work LGV Non-Work Average OGV1 Work OGV2 Work PSV Work Table 11: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Fuel Price Growth) Period Annual Growth Rate Petrol Diesel Table 12: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Non Fuel Price Growth) Period Annual Growth Rate a 1 (p/km) b 1 (p/hr) Table 13: Carbon Cost Forecasts (2010, Market Prices) Year of Emission Price per Tonne Carbon ( ) Page 4

9 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Table 14: Other GHG Costs (Market Prices, 2011) Emissions Type Price per Tonne ( ) CO N20 4,598.5 NOx 5,851 VOC 1,438 PMallareas 19,143 PMurban 200,239 PMsuburban 48,779 PMrural 16,985 Page 5

10 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Vehicle Type Table 15: Forecast Fuel Consumption Parameters (litres per 100km) Urban Rural Motorway Urban Rural Motorway Urban Rural Motorway Petrol Car Diesel Car Diesel LGV OGV Buses Vehicle Type Table 16: CO2 Emission Factors (grams per 100km) Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Petrol Car Diesel Car Diesel LGV OGV Buses Page 6

11 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Vehicle Type Table 17: NOx Emission Factors (grams per 100km) Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Petrol Car Diesel Car Diesel LGV OGV Buses Vehicle Type Table 18: PM Emission Factors (grams per 100km) Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Petrol Car Diesel Car Diesel LGV OGV Buses Page 7

12 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet 3. Traffic Input Parameters Network Classification Table 19: Annual Average Category Proportions by Class of Road CARS (1) LGV (2) OGV1 (3) OGV2 (4) PSV (5) Motorway 82.97% 8.81% 2.99% 4.77% 0.65% National Primary 85.65% 8.28% 2.50% 2.97% 0.59% National Secondary 85.67% 8.46% 3.16% 2.34% 0.36% Road Type and Flow Group Motorway (MWY) National Primary (TNB) National Primary(TBU) National Secondary (PNB) National Secondary (PNB) Table 20: Vehicle Category Proportion Correction Factors Vehicle Type LGV (2) OGV1 (3) OGV2 (4) PSV (5) Page 8

13 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Table 21: Vehicle Occupancy Rates, by Flow Group and Time Modes Vehicle Type Car LGV OGV1 OGV2 PSV Person Mode Flow Group Work Commuting Other non work Work Commuting Other non work Work Commuting Other non work Work Commuting Other non work Work Commuting Other non work Note: There are eight flow groups, four for weekday (groups 1-4) and four for the weekend (groups 6-9). Flow Group 1 = Ordinary Flow Group (overnight off peak), Flow Group 2 = Adjacent to Peak Flow Group, Flow Group 3 = AM Peak Flow Group, Flow Group 4 = PM Peak Flow Group. There are four weekend groups; Flow Group 6 = Ordinary Flow Group (overnight off peak), Flow Group 7 = Ordinary Flow Group (off peak), Flow Group 8 = Adjacent to Peak Flow Group, Flow Group 8 = Peak Flow Group. If tidality is considered, flow groups 4 and 9 are split creating flow groups 5 and 10 with the same level of flow as the original flow group but of half the duration. Page 9

14 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Table 22: Vehicle Proportions by Time Mode and Flow Group Vehicle Type Car LGV OGV1 OGV2 PSV Person Mode Flow Group Work 10.3% 16.9% 13.3% 12.0% 4.5% 1.8% 2.7% 2.7% Commuting 42.2% 36.7% 44.2% 42.9% 24.2% 7.9% 6.5% 6.5% Other non work 47.5% 46.4% 42.5% 45.1% 71.3% 90.3% 90.9% 90.9% Work 50.3% 50.3% 41.3% 40.2% 50.3% 50.3% 50.3% 50.3% Commuting 35.1% 35.1% 45.2% 45.1% 35.1% 35.1% 35.1% 35.1% Other non work 14.6% 14.6% 13.5% 14.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% Work 81.3% 81.3% 76.6% 75.6% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% Commuting 11.1% 11.1% 16.1% 17.0% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% Other non work 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Work 86.9% 86.9% 82.5% 79.7% 86.9% 86.9% 86.9% 86.9% Commuting 7.8% 7.8% 11.7% 13.2% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% Other non work 5.3% 5.3% 5.8% 7.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% Work 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% Commuting 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% Other non work 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% Page 10

15 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet 4. Collision Input Parameters Table 23: Link and Junction Combined Collision Rates Road type Collision rate PIC/mvkm Motorway Speed Limit 60 kph > 60 kph PIC/mvkm PIC/mvkm 2 Lane Single Carriageway Dual Carriageway without Central Reserve Barrier with Central Reserve Barrier Way Road Type Table 24: Link and Junction Combined Collision Proportions Collision Proportions Fatal Serious Minor Motorway Speed limit 60 kph > 60 kph Casualty severity Fatal Serious Minor Fatal Serious Minor 2 Lane single carriageway Dual Carriageway without Central Reserve Barrier 2+1 with Central Reserve Barrier Way Road Type Table 25: Average Number of Casualties per Collision Casualties per PIC Fatal Serious Minor Motorway Speed limit 60 kph > 60 kph Casualty severity Fatal Serious Minor Fatal Serious Minor 2 Lane single carriageway Dual Carriageway without Central Reserve Barrier 2+1 with Central Reserve Barrier Way Page 11

16 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Road type Table 26: Collision Reduction ( ) Factors Collision Type Collision rate reduction factor Motorway Speed Limit 60 kph > 60 kph 2 Lane Single Carriageway without Central Reserve Barrier Way Dual Carriageway with Central Reserve Barrier Road type Collision Type Casualties per Collision change factor: Fatal, Serious, Minor Motorway ,0.979,1.002 Speed Limit 60 kph > 60 kph 2 Lane Single Carriageway ,0.995, ,0.983, without Central Reserve Barrier ,0.995, ,0.983, Way ,0.995, ,0.983,1.002 Dual Carriageway ,0.99, ,0.985, with Central Reserve Barrier ,0.995, ,0.983,1.002 Page 12

17 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet 5. Motorway Service Area Parameters Table 27: MSA Parameters Parameter Value Anticipated Turn in Rates 7% - 12% Anticipated Turnover 10,000,000 per 1,000 AADT in the MSA Net Revenue 10% of Total Turnover Operation & Maintenance Costs Anticipated to range between 4% - 8% of total turnover. Page 13

18 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet 6. Data Sources Parameter Source Table 28: Data Sources Table 1: Key Parameters DTTAS, Common Appraisal Framework (CAF ) 2016 Table 2: Maintenance Costs Table 3: Value of Time (VOT) CAF (2016) Table 4: Value of Time Growth Factors Table 5: Average Value of Prevention of Collisions Transport Research Laboratory as part of COBA Ireland development CAF (2016) based on GNP growth CAF (2016) Table 6: Collision Costs CAF (2016) Table 7: Value of Collisions Growth Table 8: Fuel Costs CAF (2016) Table 9: Fuel Consumption CAF (2016) Table 10: Vehicle Operating Costs (non-fuel) Table 11: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Fuel Price Growth) Table 12: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Non Fuel Price Growth) Table 13: Carbon Cost Forecasts Table 14: Other GHG Costs Table 15: Forecast Fuel Consumption Parameters (litres per 100km) CAF (2016) based on GNP growth CAF (2016) updated to EURO Advice from AECOM Economics due to lack of accurate forecasts. Future vehicle operating costs are estimated using the current price of fuel. All forecasting is done in real terms, that is at 2011 prices, so this is equivalent to assuming that the price of fuel will rise in line with general price levels in the future. The actual price of fuel is more volatile than this and will rise and fall in real terms over time. However, in the absence of a reliable model of the future energy market in Ireland the best assumption to make is that, on average, fuel prices will remain constant in real terms. U.K Webtag as not available in CAF (2016) CAF (2016), values developed based on CPI Index CAF (2016), N2O not available so taken from 2011 PAG and factored to 2011 prices based on CPI CAF (2016) Page 14

19 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit National Parameters Values Sheet Parameter Table 16: CO2 Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 Table 17: NOx Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 Table 18: PM Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 Table 19: Annual Average Category Proportions by Class of Road Table 20: Vehicle Category Proportion Correction Factors Source CAF (2016) CAF (2016) CAF (2016) Table 21: Vehicle Occupancy Rates CAF (2016) (2016) Table 22: Vehicle Proportions Table 23: Link and Junction Combined Collision Rates Table 24: Link and Junction Combined Collision Proportions Table 25: Average Number of Casualties per Collision Table 26: Collision Reduction ( ) Factors Table 27: MSA Parameters Calculated based on first principles from TII TMU data Not available in CAF (2016), unchanged from 2011 PAG Not available in CAF (2016), unchanged from 2011 PAG Based on historical data from Road Safety Authority and traffic demand data from TII NTpM Based on historical data from Road Safety Authority and traffic demand data from TII NTpM Based on historical data from Road Safety Authority and traffic demand data from TII NTpM Based on TRL/Smeeds Law Research Based on surveys undertaken on behalf of TII Page 15

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