Spring Congress & General Assembly 2014

Transcription

1 The Association of European Vehicle Logistics Spring Congress & General Assembly 2014 Ship Train Compound Barge

2 The Association of European Vehicle Logistics Spring Congress 2014 Session I Ship Train Compound Barge

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4 Session I: Agenda 09:00 Welcome from the President of ECG 09:25 Presentation from the ECG Secretariat by Mike Sturgeon, Executive Director 09:40 European Market outlook, LMC Automotive 10:20 Coffee break Ship Train Compound Barge

5 The Association of European Vehicle Logistics Welcome by the President ECG Spring Congress Friday, 23 th May Athens Ship Train Compound Barge

6 Automotive sales Source: ACEA Ship Train Compound Barge

7 Automotive Sales changes in the last 7 years Jan -Apr Jan -Apr Jan-Apr % Chg % Chg '14 '13 '07 14/13 14/07 AUSTRIA ,3% 5,5% BELGIUM ,2% -4,6% DENMARK ,4% 37,9% FINLAND ,1% -24,1% FRANCE ,7% -11,3% GERMANY ,9% 0,4% GREECE ,2% -78,4% IRELAND ,6% -50,9% ITALY ,0% -47,2% LUXEMBURG ,3% -12,5% NETHERLANDS ,1% -32,7% PORTUGAL ,7% -29,6% SPAIN ,2% -47,0% SWEDEN ,8% -0,2% UNITED KINGDOM ,5% 0,7% NORWAY ,9% 14,1% SWITZERLAND ,9% 10,9% CZECH REPUBLIC ,4% 43,8% POLAND ,0% 28,2% Other ,3% -48,0% TOTAL EUROPE (EU+EFTA) ,1% -18,8% Ship Train Compound Barge

8 Passenger car density Source: ACEA Ship Train Compound Barge

9 Passenger car fleet by age Source: ACEA Ship Train Compound Barge

10 European Union car fleet growth Source: ACEA Ship Train Compound Barge

11 2013 Cars and Commercial Vehicles Production 2013 Cars + Commercial vehicles Production 25,000,000 20,000,000 Cars + Commercial vehicles 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 - Europe (Incl Russia/Turkey) China NAFTA Japan South Korea Brazil India Source: OICA Ship Train Compound Barge

12 EMEA expected industry sales growth Source: IHS data showed at FCA Investor day Ship Train Compound Barge

13 EUROPE GDP Country GDP Billion Debt to USD GDP United States ,0% China ,8% Japan ,7% Germany ,2% France ,8% Brazil ,2% UK ,7% Italy ,1% Russia ,4% India ,1% Canada ,0% Spain ,5% Australia ,9% Mexico ,8% South Korea ,0% GDP Billion USD Europe United States China 7298 Japan 5867 Brazil 2477 India 1848 Canada 1736 Australia 1372 Mexico 1155 South Korea 1014 Source: Trading economics European Union Ship Train Compound Barge

14 European Automotive Industry s and vans deliver 18 bn tonnes of goods per year. Automotive generates a turnover of 839 bn: About the 7% of EU GDP Mil people are employed in the sector: About the 5.3% of the EU workforce 385 bn of tax contributions are generated by motor vehicles. Ship Train Compound Barge

15 The role of ECG Ship Train Compound Barge

16 Thank you for your attention! Ship Train Compound Barge

17 ECG Quarterly Survey Q Mike Sturgeon Executive Director Ship Train Compound Barge

18 1. Fleet size (consolidated) For the next six months, how do you expect your fleet size to change? Increase 80% 70% No change Decrease 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Ship Train Compound Barge

19 2. Investment capability 80 For the next six months, will you be investing in any of the following? Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q s Drivers Ships Railway wagons River barges Ship Train Compound Barge

20 3. Investment capability Are you able to raise funds from banks? Yes, easily 70% Yes, but with difficulty No 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Ship Train Compound Barge

21 4. Labour supply Availability of qualified truck drivers More than enough 80% 70% Just the right amount There is a shortage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Ship Train Compound Barge

22 5. Business optimism 80 How do you feel about the next six months? Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic Ship Train Compound Barge

23 6. Volume & value of business How do you expect the volume of your business to change in the next 6 months? 70% 60% Increase No change Decrease 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Ship Train Compound Barge

24 7. Fleet capacity utilisation (cons.) Compared to one year ago, how has your fleet utilisation changed? 80% 70% Increased No change Decreased 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Ship Train Compound Barge

25 8. Compound occupancy (cons.) Compared to one year ago, how has your compound occupancy changed? 80% 70% Increased No change Decreased 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Ship Train Compound Barge

26 European market outlook Justin Cox LMC Automotive Ship Train Compound Barge

27 European Light Vehicle Outook ECG Spring Congress, Athens Justin Cox - Head of European Production, Oxford, UK May 16th 2014

28 General US: the Year of The Stallion? China s Middle Class reaches 80 million Credit cutback hits Chinese growth Turkish overnight interest rates hit 12% UK growth revised up. Again. Bond Spread in Club-Med improving 28

29 5% General Modest global economic recovery in 2014 World real GDP Growth 4% 3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.8% 2% 1% 0% -1% % -3% Source: Oxford Economics 29

30 Outline European Demand Backdrop Production Impact Threats to European Capacity Outlook Summary 30

31 European Demand Backdrop 31

32 Eurozone Important Turning Point US Dollar per Euro exchange rate Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Italian & Spanish Government Debt yield Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Eurozone Equities Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Mario Draghi s summer 2012 whatever it takes speech Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics 32 LMC Automotive 32

33 European Consumer Confidence This time last year, consumer confidence was just beginning to show signs of improvement Source: European Commission 33

34 European Consumer Confidence this momentum has continued through last year and, so far, into Source: European Commission 34

35 % Change, Year-on-Year Eurozone Macroeconomic Outlook Slowly recovering in 2014 after two successive annual falls GDP Growth Source: Oxford Economics 35

36 Europe Macroeconomic Outlook But it s patchy Annual GDP % change selected countries Rank Germany 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% Ireland -0.3% 1.7% 2.1% Portugal -1.4% 1.4% 1.2% Spain -1.2% 0.8% 1.2% Netherlands -0.8% 0.7% 0.9% France 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% Italy -1.8% 0.5% 1.3% Greece -3.9% -0.3% 1.6% Eurozone -0.4% 1.0% 1.4% Eurozone: - exports and less austerity - Euro weaker US$ - Unemployment peak but not fall - Housing markets stabilise - Bond Spreads narrow - But divergence continues Poland 1.5% 2.9% 3.2% UK 1.7% 3.0% 2.5% Turkey 4.0% 2.0% 3.1% Russia 1.3% 1.8% 2.4% Non Eurozone members: Emerging Market Crisis further downgrades for Russia & Turkey Source: Oxford Economics (May 2014) May 2014 LMC Automotive 36

37 Unemployment (% of Labour Force) Vast Labour Market Differences Eurozone South Eurozone North Eurozone unemployment rates circa 12 % towards the end of 2013 and into However, the divergence between the North and the South remains vast. While we expect unemployment among the more heavily hit countries to begin easing as the year progresses, the next few years will continue to see this factor acting as a major drag to economic expansion. Source: Oxford Economics 37

38 Sales Volume (mn) Western Europe Car Market Historic Context Sales down by 22% and back to early 90s mn units lower

39 Sales Volume (mn units/year) European Outlook : Demand Western Europe Car Market short-run An improvement in selling rates FY: 11.8 mn FY: 11.5 mn 39

40 Sales Volume (mn) Western Europe Car Market: 2014 UK and Germany likely to be largest contributors to growth this year k UK GER SPA ITA FRA REST

41 Sales Volume (mn units/year) European Outlook : Demand Total Europe Light Vehicle Market short run Aggregate European Sales Recovery pace wobbles FY: 18.1 mn FY: 17.8 mn J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A SAAR Moving Average 41

42 Sales Volume (mn) East Europe Light Vehicle Market: 2014 Russian crisis and Turkey drag down growth this year k RUS TUR UKR CZE POL Rest

43 Sales Volume (mn) European Outlook : Demand Central & Eastern European Light Vehicle Market New Peak -0.9% -10.2%

44 Sales Volume (mn) European Outlook : Demand European Light Vehicle Sales Forecast 17.8 mn 17.9 mn 44

45 millions European Light Vehicle Sales 23 European Outlook : Demand 2014: Still over 4m units below sales peak Overheating Unsupportable debt Leading to Crash 2013: -1.5% Pent-Up Replacement Demographics Motorisation scope Cyclical boosts Debt Crisis hangover: Unemployment Confidence collapse 2014: +1% May 2014 LMC Automotive 45

46 millions European Outlook : Demand Contrast: Chinese and US LV Market Between 2008 and 2013, Chinese sales increased over 13mn US recovery has been steady since 2009 crash up 5mn ( 09 to 13) USA China : China growth +6mn : US growth +1mn May 2014 LMC Automotive 46

47 millions European Overview - Production Impact European LV Production well below previous peak LV Production Level annual growth % % +0.6% +1.5% +3.0% May 2014 LMC Automotive 47

48 European Overview - Production Impact European LV Production Stabilising, but stuttering 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4-4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -W Europe Demand grows, but patchy -E Europe production stalls in 2Q2014 -China exports could save Q2, however outlook is positive (+1.5% growth) May 2014 LMC Automotive 48

49 European Overview - Production Impact European Vehicle Stocks - snapshot Stock Change (000s) - LHS Days Supply - RHS Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 - Days supply : normal at 60 days - Minimal Stock movement - Inventory levels under control May 2014 LMC Automotive 49

50 % yoy growth Volume (000s) European Overview - Production Impact European Exports Still Strong (NA,SA,Asia): Plateau?

51 BMW Daimler VW Gp Ford PSA Fiat-Chry Ren-Niss GM European Overview - Production Impact Major European OEMs: 2013 Euro LV sales as a share of Euro LV assembly % May 2014 LMC Automotive 51

52 Daimler BMW Fiat-Chrysler VW Group Ford Ren-Niss PSA GM European Overview - Production Impact Major European OEMs: 2013 Euro LV Production growth (yoy) 10.0 % May 2014 LMC Automotive 52

53 BMW VW Daimler Ren-Niss PSA Ford GM Fiat-Chrys European Overview - Production Impact European Capacity Utilisation 2013 (Group %) % 70.0 Euro Average May 2014 LMC Automotive 53

54 Production Outlook : Europe Europe Utilisation : Threat from overseas capacity expansion 54

55 Capacity Volume (000's) 2,000 Production Outlook : Europe Europe s Key Exporters expand capacity in the Americas 1,600 BMW C-Class US production starts in ,200 USA Daimler Mexican VW Golf production ramps-up 800 BMW Daimler VW 400 VW 0 MEXICO Audi BMW BRAZIL LR/Audi/MB/BMW 2012 Capacity 2019 Capacity 55 Daimler Premiums head for Brazil

56 Volume (000's) 2,500 Production Outlook : Europe and volume expansion continues in Asia 2,000 Export brands production volume to expand from 800K to over 2M in Asia Jaguar/Land Rover 1,500 Volvo 1,000 Mercedes 500 BMW Audi Source: LMC Automotive

57 Millions Production Outlook : Europe European Capacity Regional Split Russia East Europe Expansion: Turkey: Hyundai i10, Toyota SUV, Russia: Lada/Dacia, Hyundai 20 Turkey 15 West Europe 10 5 Germany France Belguim Closure: Bochum, Aulnay, Genk

58 European Vehicle Production (000s) 7,000 Production Outlook : Europe Key Export Brands: Impact of localisation 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 BMW/MB/Audi/VW : Faders X1, C-A-B-E-GLK, A3hb-Q5, Golf Source: LMC Automotive 58

59 European Vehicle Production (000s) 7,000 Production Outlook : Europe Key Export Brands: Impact of localisation: 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 BMW/MB/Audi/Porsche : Stars X2-i3-GTs, CLA-GLA-S-For4, Q1/3/8-A1/3sdn, Porsche 2,000 1,000 BMW/MB/Audi/VW : Faders X1, C-A-B-E-GLK, A3hb-Q5, Golf Source: LMC Automotive 59

60 European Vehicle Production (000s) 7,000 Production Outlook : Europe Key Export Brands: Impact of localisation 6,000 5,000 Audi/VW : Bedrock All other VW & Audi 4,000 3,000 BMW/MB/Audi/Porsche : Stars X2-i3-GTs, CLA-GLA-S-For4, Q1/3/8-A1/3sdn, Porsche 2,000 1,000 BMW/MB/Audi/VW : Faders X1, C-A-B-E-GLK, A3hb-Q5, Golf Source: LMC Automotive 60

61 European Vehicle Production (000s) Production Outlook : Europe Key Mainstream Brands : Outlook 16,000 14,000 Toyota 12,000 10,000 8,000 GM Seat & Skoda Fiat Chyrsler Hyundai 6,000 Ford 4,000 PSA 2,000 Renault Nissan Source: LMC Automotive 61

62 Millions Production Outlook : Europe % % 20 60% % 20% European Production Underutilised Capacity % Utilisation 0% Aggregate Capacity remains broadly flat European utilisation improves in the medium-term But significant spare capacity still persists considering the cyclical position Source: LMC Automotive 62

63 Production Outlook : Europe 63

64 mns Production Outlook Summary : Europe European LV Production outlook % -5.2% +0.6% +1.5% +3.0% +5.2% +4.9% +3.8% +2.3% 1.9% +1.4% - Exports helped support production - Near-term, European demand tempered by Russia - Localisation: moderates export growth rates - But, model proliferation maintains export volume - Medium Term: European market is key driver - Slow recovery: output only reaches 07 level in 17 - Low Utilisation rates still an issue May 2014 LMC Automotive 64

65 Justin Cox, Oxford UK

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67 The Association of European Vehicle Logistics Spring Congress & General Assembly 2014 Ship Train Compound Barge