2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates and Forecast Projections An analysis for foreseeable conditions iro LOGISTICS
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1 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates and Forecast Projections An analysis for foreseeable conditions iro LOGISTICS Mitchell Brooke Logistics Development Manager
2 Map of Fruit Production in SA The 3 key citrus production and export corridors must be considered independently for logistics purposes Northern region exports through Durban Port Northern & Western Cape region exports through Cape Town Port Eastern Cape region exports through PE & Coega Ports Source: CGA
3 Factors Affecting Production Typical Climatic 1. Drought 2. High Heat 3. Hail 4. Tropical Storms Hail Dry & High Heat Hail Hail Major Drought Drought Drought High Wind & Heat = Fruit Drop Typical Other 1. Supply & Demand 2. Market Prices 3. Fruit Quality & Size 4. Phytosanitary
4 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. Cga Region Est. Ha <4 Yrs Ha Total % Ha <4 Yrs % Vol Increase Vol Increase Est. 3 to 5 Yrs Unknown - - Boland % 63% E. Cape Midlands % 23% Hoedspruit % 3% Letsitele % 21% Limpopo River % 14% Nelspruit % 41% Nkwaleni % 3% Onderberg % 17% Oranje Rivier % 23% Patensie % 38% Pongola % % S.R. Valley % 37% Senwes % 23% S-KZN % 23% Swaziland % 21% Vaalharts % 13% W. Cape % 33% Zimbabwe % 23% Grand Total % 29% Northern Region % 23% EC Region % 36% WC & NW Region % 39%
5 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Export Production Est. by Region 35 Total Southern Africa Export Production by Region TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 212 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 213 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 214 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 215 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 216 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 217 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 218 Est. TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
6 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Export Production Est. by Region Total Southern Africa Export Production by Corridor Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 212 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 213 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 214 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 215 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 216 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 217 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 218 Est. TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
7 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. Cga Region Est. Ha <4 Yrs Ha Total % Ha <4 Yrs % Vol Increase Vol Increase Est. 3 to 5 Yrs Unknown Boland E. Cape Midlands 17 Hoedspruit % 7% Letsitele % 7% Limpopo River % % Nelspruit Nkwaleni % % 1 1 Onderberg % 7% Oranje Rivier % % 1 4 Patensie % 1% Pongola % % 3 S.R. Valley % % 3 Senwes S-KZN Swaziland % 1% Vaalharts - W. Cape Zimbabwe % 37% Grand Total % 8% Northern Region % 8% EC Region % 1% WC & NW Region % % - 1 5
8 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 5.5 Grapefruit Export Production by Region GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 212 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 213 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 214 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 215 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 216 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 217 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 218 Est. GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
9 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 2 Grapefruit Export Production by Corridor Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 212 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 213 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 214 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 215 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 216 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 217 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 218 Est. GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
10 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates LEMONS 15KG EQV. Cga Region Est. Ha <4 Yrs Ha Total % Ha <4 Yrs % Vol Increase Vol Increase Est. 3 to 5 Yrs Unknown - - Boland % 7% E. Cape Midlands % 6% Hoedspruit % 8% Letsitele % 12% Limpopo River % 8% Nelspruit % 8% Nkwaleni % 1% Onderberg % 5% Oranje Rivier % 12% Patensie % 15% Pongola % % S.R. Valley % 5% Senwes % 5% S-KZN % 4% Swaziland % 1% Vaalharts % 4% W. Cape % 6% Zimbabwe % 2% Grand Total % 74% Northern Region % 75% EC Region % 73% WC & NW Region % 73%
11 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 14 Lemon Export Production by Region LEMONS 15KG EQV. 212 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 213 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 214 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 215 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 216 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 217 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. LEMONS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
12 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 35 Lemon Export Production by Corridor Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region LEMONS 15KG EQV. 212 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 213 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 214 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 215 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 216 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 217 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. LEMONS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
13 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates NAVELS 15KG EQV. Cga Region Est. Ha <4 Yrs Ha Total % Ha <4 Yrs % Vol Increase Vol Increase Est. 3 to 5 Yrs Unknown - - Boland % 52% E. Cape Midlands % 7% Hoedspruit % Letsitele % 25% Limpopo River % 19% Nelspruit % 13% Nkwaleni Onderberg % 133% Oranje Rivier Patensie % 15% Pongola S.R. Valley % 15% Senwes % 12% S-KZN % 1% Swaziland Vaalharts % 1% W. Cape % 8% Zimbabwe 174 Grand Total % 15% Northern Region % 12% EC Region % 18% WC & NW Region % 13%
14 15 Kg Carton Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 8 Navels Export Production by Region NAVELS 15KG EQV. 212 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 213 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 214 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 215 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 216 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 217 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. NAVELS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
15 15 Kg Carton Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 35 Navels Export Production by Corridor Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region NAVELS 15KG EQV. 212 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 213 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 214 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 215 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 216 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 217 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. NAVELS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
16 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. Cga Region Est. Ha <4 Yrs Ha Total % Ha <4 Yrs % Vol Increase Vol Increase Est. 3 to 5 Yrs Unknown - - Boland % 6% E. Cape Midlands % 25% Hoedspruit % 5% Letsitele % 1% Limpopo River % 8% Nelspruit % 8% Nkwaleni % 25 Onderberg % 15 Oranje Rivier % 12% Patensie % 5% Pongola S.R. Valley % 1% Senwes % 8% S-KZN % 1 Swaziland Vaalharts % 2 5 W. Cape % 8% Zimbabwe 25 3 % 25 Grand Total % 85% Northern Region % 111% EC Region % 71% WC & NW Region % 81%
17 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Soft Citrus Export Production by Region SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 212 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 213 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 214 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 215 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 216 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 217 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
18 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Soft Citrus Export Production by Corridor Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 212 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 213 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 214 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 215 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 216 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 217 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
19 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. Cga Region Est. Ha <4 Yrs Ha Total % Ha <4 Yrs % Vol Increase Vol Increase Est. 3 to 5 Yrs Unknown - - Boland % 15% E. Cape Midlands % 12% Hoedspruit % 1% Letsitele % 19% Limpopo River % 9% Nelspruit % 1% Nkwaleni % 25 Onderberg % 15% Oranje Rivier % 16% Patensie % 12% Pongola % 6 S.R. Valley % 9% Senwes % 3% S-KZN % 7% Swaziland % 4 Vaalharts % W. Cape % 13% Zimbabwe % 2% Grand Total % 14% Northern Region % 14% EC Region % 9% WC & NW Region % 13%
20 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 18 Valencia Export Production by Region VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 212 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 213 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 214 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 215 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 216 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 217 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
21 15 Kg Carton Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 7 Valencia Citrus Export Production by Corridor Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 212 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 213 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 214 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 215 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 216 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 217 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 218 Est. VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
22 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Citrus export production from the northern region peaks between week Production peaks heavily at week 28 when congestion becomes an issue. Northern Regions Weekly Citrus Export Production Total Production Grapefruit Lemons Navels Soft Citrus Valencias
23 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 2. EC Regions Weekly Citrus Export Production Citrus export production from the EC region peaks between week Production peaks heavily at week 33. Concern regarding capacity in EC region Total Production Grapefruit Lemons Navels Soft Citrus Valencias
24 15 Kg Cartons Eqv. Millions 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates 1.4 NWC Regions Weekly Citrus Export Production Citrus export production from the NWC region peaks between week 2 3. Production peaks at week 22/ Total Production Grapefruit Lemons Navels Soft Citrus Valencias
25 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Exit Port Commodity Est. 1 Est. 3 to 5 Yrs Eastern Cape to PE & Coega Ports Citrus Export Volume by Commodity by Load Port (Pallets) Grapefruit Lemons Oranges Soft Citrus Total Grapefruit Northern Region to Durban Port (Incl. Zimbabwe & Swaziland) Lemons Oranges Soft Citrus Total Grapefruit Western/Northern Cape to Cape Town Port Lemons Oranges Soft Citrus Total Grapefruit Southern Africa (Incl. Swaziland & Zimbabwe Lemons Oranges Soft Citrus Total
26 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Citrus Export Volume by Ship Mode by Load Port (Pallets) Departure Port Vessel Type Est. 1 Est. 3 to 5 Yrs PORT ELIZABETH/COEGA Reefer Containers Specialized Reefer Vessel Total DURBAN Reefer Containers Specialized Reefer Vessel Total CAPE TOWN Reefer Containers Specialized Reefer Vessel Total Southern Africa (Incl. Swaziland & Zimbabwe Reefer Containers Specialized Reefer Vessel Total
27 Reefer Containers Reefer Vessel Total Reefer Containers Reefer Vessel Total Reefer Containers Reefer Vessel Total Reefer Containers Reefer Vessel Total 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Citrus Exports by Ship Mode by Load Port (Pallets) Pallets Thousands 2,5 2, Reefer Container Demand Ave = 18, FEU 218 Est. = 21, FEU 3-5 Year Projection = 26, FEU Reefer Container Demand Ave = 35, FEU 218 Est. = 42, FEU 3-5 Year Projection = 48,75 FEU Reefer Container Demand Ave = 12,4 FEU 218 Est. = 14,6 FEU 3-5 Year Projection = 18,6 FEU Total Reefer Container Demand Ave = 65,4 FEU 218 Est. = 77,6 FEU 3-5 Year Projection = 93,35 FEU 1,5 1, 5 PORT ELIZABETH/COEGA DURBAN CAPE TOWN Southern Africa (Incl. Swaziland & Zimbabwe Est. 1 Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
28 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Citrus Reefer Volume ex CTCT (FEU) 1,4 1,2 2, 18,528 18, 16, 14,71 1, 14, 12, , 1, 6 8, 4 6, 4, 2 2, Cape Town 215 Act Cape Town 216 Act Cape Town 217 Act Cape Town 218 Est. Cape Town 22/22 Est. Cape Town 215 Act Acc. Cape Town 216 Act Acc. Cape Town 217 Act Acc. Cape Town 218 Est Acc. Cape Town 22/22 Est Acc.
29 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Citrus Reefer Volume ex DCT (FEU) 3, 48,778 5, 2,5 2, 42,75 4, 4,36 1,5 3, 1, 2, 5 1, Durban 215 Act Durban 216 Act Durban 217 Act Durban 218 Est. Durban 22/22 Est. Durban 215 Act Acc. Durban 216 Act Acc. Durban 217 Act Acc. Durban 218 Est Acc. Durban 22/22 Est Acc.
30 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Citrus Reefers ex PECT/NCT (NCT 7% / PECT 3%) 2, 3, 1,8 26,127 1,6 1,4 25, 21,7 18,77 2, 1,2 1, 15, 8 6 1, 4 5, PE/Ngqura 215 Act PE/Ngqura 216 Act PE/Ngqura 217 Act PE/Ngqura 218 Est. PE/Ngqura 22/22 Est. PE/Ngqura 215 Act Acc. PE/Ngqura 216 Act Acc. PE/Ngqura 217 Act Acc. PE/Ngqura 218 Est. Acc. PE/Ngqura 22/22 Est. Acc.
31 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates Citrus Reefers ex All Ports (FEU) 6, 1, 93,433 9, 5, 4, 77,855 8, 7,237 7, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, Total 215 Act Total 216 Act Total 217 Act Total 218 Est. Total 22/22 Est. Total 215 Act Acc. Total 216 Act Acc. Total 217 Act Acc. Total 218 Est Acc. Total 22/22 Est Acc.
32 218 Logistics Demands Transportation Supply & Demand (Northern Region) NB!!! Rail transportation from the northern region Cold Storage Capacity (Durban & PE) Durban week and PE continuous > Cold Treatment Shipments Genset units (Durban) Container Equipment (National) Additional 7,5 FEU s required 218 against 217 Port Container Terminal Infrastructure NB!!! Pier 1 plug points to >1,2 (SAECS & FAX) Port Container Terminal Performance DCT vessel delays & wind delays DCT & NCT < truck turnaround times DCT effective handling of citrus reefer trains (<TTT)
33 Rail Transport Options Musina: Limpopo River & Zimbabwe 2. Tzaneen: Letsitele & Hoedspruit 3. Bela-Bela: Groblersdal & Marble Hall 4. City Deep: Ambient & Cold Storage Facilities Rail transportation options now more important than ever
34 218 Citrus Export Production Estimates and Forecast Projections Thank you / Dankie Mitchell Brooke Logistics Development Manager mitchell@cga.co.za
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