KASB Enrollment Projection Report Ted Carter, Research Specialist February, 2017

Transcription

1 KASB Enrollment Projection Report Ted Carter, Research Specialist February, Percent of Students Eligible for Free or Reduced-Price Lunch (Green = Lower Percent, Red = Higher Percent)

2 Introduction This report presents the findings from KASB s Enrollment Projections for the state of Kansas as a whole, and also provides instructions on how these projections can be accessed at the district level. Key Findings Total headcount enrollment will see modest increases from through , then a slight decrease in , virtually no change in , then a modest decrease in The average annual change in total enrollment from to is expected to be a 0.13 percent increase. The five year change from to is projected to be a 0.66 percent increase. o 160 districts, or 55.9 percent, are projected to see a decline in enrollment during this period, with all the growth happening in 125, or 43.7 percent of the districts. o Six districts are expected to see a decline of 20 percent or more. o Eleven districts are expected to see an increase of 20 percent or more. o The average district is expected to see a 0.41 percent increase during this time. o Grades K through 5 will all see decreases in students, while grades 6 through 12 will see increases. o The percent of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch is not predicted to change substantially between and o Statewide average student age is likely to increase slightly, suggesting that a decline in enrollment might be on the horizon. o 122 districts, or 42.7 percent, are expected to see a decline in average student age. o 162 districts, or 56.6 percent, are expected to see an increase in the average student age. Page 2 of 24

3 Contents Introduction... 1 Key Findings... 2 Methodology... 4 Initial Data... 4 Ratio of Birth to First Grade Enrollment... 4 Cohort Survival Rate... 4 Other Grade Levels... 5 Lunch Status... 5 Average Age... 5 Total Students... 6 Table One: Student Headcounts... 6 Figure One: Student Headcounts by District Size... 7 Grade Levels... 8 Table Two: Student Headcounts by Grade... 8 Figure Two: Student Headcounts by Grade Lunch Status Table Three: School Lunch Percent Figure Three: School Lunch Status Average Age Table Four: Average Age Figure Four: Average Age Conclusions Appendix A: District Totals Appendix B: Running District Level Projections Page 3 of 24

4 Methodology The following describes the methods used for developing the Enrollment Projections contained in this report. This method is based on the one used by KASB for many years, but was enhanced and expanded as of the school year. Initial Data KASB acquires unaudited enrollment counts and the percent enrolled who qualify for free lunch, reduced price lunch, and full price lunch from the Kansas State Department of Education (KSDE) via their Comparative Performance & Fiscal System ( KASB acquires county level birth data by month from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment via their Annual Summary of Vital Statistics ( Ratio of Birth to First Grade Enrollment Total resident live births by county and school year are calculated using monthly births from September of one year through August of the following year; consistent with the birth dates used to determine age of eligibility for attending first grade. The birth data by county is then tied to the district level enrollment data based on all counties that the district boundaries cross. Because of some of the challenges with kindergarten data, KASB utilizes a ratio of births by school year to first grade enrollments seven years later; when the children would be turning seven years old and therefore be eligible for first grade enrollment. This ratio, which serves as a comparison between children born in the district to the number of students enrolling in first grade within the district seven years later, serves as the basis for the enrollment estimates for the district. Limitations of this ratio include the fact that it does not take into account children moving into or out of the district s boundaries, and also that the county to school district relationship is not a perfect one; as other school district boundaries also cross the counties used for many districts calculations. In order to estimate the first grade enrollment numbers for future years, a five year rolling average is utilized. Such an average is calculated by determining the average ratio for the past five years in order to create the ratio for the first year of the projection, then taking the ratio for the past four years plus the ratio calculated for the first year of the projection and averaging them in order to create the ratio for the second year of the projection, and so forth. Rolling averages are commonly utilized in order to minimize the impact of short term fluctuations or deviations on the overall projections. The calculated ratios for five years worth of school years are then applied to the actual resident live births in order to determine estimated first grade enrollment numbers. Cohort Survival Rate For grade levels 2 through 12, a cohort survival ratio is calculated and utilized. The cohort survival ratio determines the relationship between the number of students at a particular grade level one year and the number of students at the next grade level the following year. For kindergarten, the ratio is calculated Page 4 of 24

5 backwards; determining the ratio of the number of students in first grade one year and the number of students in kindergarten the year prior. Again for these calculations a five year rolling average is utilized. Other Grade Levels For Pre Kindergarten, 4 year old at risk, Special Education 3 and 4 year olds, and Nongraded students, a five year average ratio of total K 12 students to each group is calculated. Note that for this analysis, the ratio was used rather than the 5 year rolling average for nongraded students due to a drastic reduction in the number of these students reported during the and school years, making the five year average calculations ineffective for this grade classification. Lunch Status In order to estimate the enrollment numbers for student participation in the National School Lunch Program, a ratio of each group to the total number of students in K 12 for the same year is calculated, and again a five year rolling average is utilized to project numbers for the next five years. Note that for this analysis, a report from KSDE indicating the percent of students eligible for free, reduced price, and full price lunch by district generated December 2016 was used for the numbers. Average Age District average age was calculated by assigning an age to each grade level, multiplying the numbers by grade, then dividing by total enrollment. If a district's average age is increasing, that means their student population is aging and decreases in enrollment may be coming in the future. If a district's average age is decreasing, that means their student population is getting younger and increases in enrollment maybe coming in the future. Page 5 of 24

6 Total Students Table One shows the total student headcounts by year. Figure One shows total student headcounts by year, color coded by district size. Appendix A at the back of this report shows the total student headcounts by year and by district. Historical data shows that the number of students enrolled in public schools in Kansas increased modestly from through From to and again from to , the total student headcount saw slight decreases. The average annual change from to was 0.34 percent. The five year change from to was a 1.73 percent increase. 183 districts, or 64.0 percent, saw a decline in enrollment during this period, with all the growth happening in 101, or 35 percent, of the districts. Twelve districts saw a decline of 20 percent or more. Nine districts saw an increase of 20 percent or more. The average district saw a two percent decrease during this time. Table One: Student Headcounts School Year Student Headcount Annual Percent Change , , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % 5 Year Average Annual Change Cumulative Change 0.34% 1.73% 0.13% 0.66% Projection data suggests that the total headcount will see modest increases from through , then a slight decrease in , virtually no change in , then a modest decrease in The average annual change from to is expected to be a 0.13 percent increase with a cumulative increase of 0.66 percent. Page 6 of 24

7 Figure One: Student Headcounts by District Size 160 districts, or 55.9 percent, are projected to see a decline in enrollment during this period, with all the growth happening in 125, or 43.7 percent, of the districts. Six districts are expected to see a decline of 20 percent or more. Eleven districts are expected to see an increase of 20 percent or more. The average district is expected to see a 0.41 percent increase during this time. Page 7 of 24

8 Grade Levels Table Three shows the total student headcounts by grade level. Figure Three shows total student headcounts by year, color coded by grade. From to , grades K and 1 saw an overall decline in students, whereas grades 2 12 saw increases. The highest of these was 4 th grade, with a 6.07 percent increase. Pre Kindergarten students saw a percent increase, and nongraded students saw a percent decreased. Analysis predicts that from to , grades K through 5 will all see decreases in students, while grades 6 through 12 will see increases. The highest predicted increase is for nongraded students (18.69 percent), but as noted in the methods section above this is partially due to a dramatic decrease in these numbers for the past two years. Beyond that, the highest predicted increase is for 9 th grade at 6.97 percent, and the highest decrease is predicted to be prekindergarten, with a 6.15 percent decrease. Table Two: Student Headcounts by Grade Pct Change to K 35,202 36,010 36,130 36,917 37,578 38,396 38,581 37,602 37,024 35, % 1 35,457 35,355 36,242 36,517 36,814 37,316 38,488 38,254 37,160 36, % 2 35,004 35,183 35,326 36,335 36,198 36,410 37,357 37,956 37,692 36, % 3 34,363 35,098 35,462 35,628 36,226 36,032 36,748 37,208 37,838 37, % 4 34,044 34,589 35,377 35,911 35,621 36,184 36,494 36,514 37,004 37, % 5 33,184 34,304 34,884 35,832 36,012 35,578 36,620 36,495 36,322 36, % 6 33,517 33,362 34,633 35,338 35,841 35,986 35,947 36,243 36,152 36, % 7 34,002 33,896 33,868 35,222 35,490 35,997 36,464 35,874 36,178 36, % 8 34,233 34,012 34,248 34,135 35,337 35,473 36,496 36,175 35,749 35, % 9 37,079 36,865 36,870 36,906 36,166 37,036 36,926 37,453 37,367 37, % 10 35,799 35,210 35,074 35,552 35,096 34,435 35,659 35,779 36,151 36, % 11 33,436 33,346 33,097 33,631 33,781 33,476 33,174 34,276 34,531 34, % 12 32,609 31,874 32,166 33,231 32,600 32,792 32,976 32,709 33,811 33, % SpEd 3 4 4,606 4,692 5,091 6,489 6,550 6,568 6,854 7,039 6,570 6, % 4yr AR 5,843 6,290 6,630 7,292 7,417 7,500 7,306 7,231 7,054 7, % PK 1,915 2,106 1,575 3,597 4,157 4,435 4,601 4,872 5,164 5, % NG 3,825 3,923 4,939 5,523 6,072 5,968 6,212 6,098 4,972 3, % Grand Total 464, , , , , , , , , , % (continued on next page) Page 8 of 24

9 Pct Change to K 35,787 36,562 36,714 35,930 36,074 35, % 1 36,761 36,270 36,419 35,631 35,737 35, % 2 36,893 36,581 36,154 36,112 35,351 35, % 3 37,600 37,002 36,892 36,174 36,150 35, % 4 37,784 37,703 37,332 36,948 36,211 36, % 5 36,975 37,976 38,070 37,510 37,195 36, % 6 36,140 36,967 38,140 37,930 37,418 37, % 7 36,160 36,379 37,360 38,282 38,092 37, % 8 35,980 36,227 36,604 37,335 38,313 38, % 9 37,185 37,471 37,747 37,917 38,753 39, % 10 36,000 35,855 36,321 36,523 36,629 37, % 11 34,975 34,674 34,692 35,074 35,296 35, % 12 33,928 34,384 34,273 34,187 34,583 34, % SpEd 3 4 6,747 6,773 6,786 6,803 6,774 6, % 4yr AR 7,028 7,071 7,272 7,186 7,128 7, % PK 5,561 5,592 4,971 5,073 5,158 5, % NG 3,852 4,336 4,707 4,672 4,639 4, % Grand Total 495, , , , , , % Page 9 of 24

10 Figure Two: Student Headcounts by Grade Page 10 of 24

11 Lunch Status Table Two shows the total student headcounts by eligibility for participation in the National School Lunch Program. Figure Two shows total student headcounts by year, color coded by school lunch status. Table Three: School Lunch Percent Free Lunch 32.22% 35.72% 37.29% 38.73% 39.71% 40.14% 39.81% 39.43% 38.73% 39.36% 39.29% 39.10% 38.93% 38.81% Reduced Price Lunch 10.45% 9.95% 10.17% 9.92% 9.78% 9.62% 9.65% 9.10% 9.27% 9.43% 9.37% 9.32% 9.27% 9.30% Full Price Lunch 57.33% 54.33% 52.53% 51.35% 50.51% 50.24% 50.54% 51.46% 52.00% 51.20% 51.34% 51.57% 51.81% 51.89% The percent of students eligible for free lunch increased each year from through , going from percent to percent. It then decreased through , down to percent. The percent of students eligible for reduced price lunch was highest in at percent and lowest in at 9.10 percent. The percent of students not eligible for free or reduced price lunch decreased from in to in , then up to percent in From to , the percent of students eligible for free lunch is expected to increase from percent to percent in then decrease to percent in The percent of students eligible for reduced price lunch is expected to stay between 9.27 percent and 9.43 percent. Students not eligible for either is expected to decrease to percent in then increase to percent by Page 11 of 24

12 Figure Three: School Lunch Status Page 12 of 24

13 Average Age Table Four and Figure Four show the average student age overall and by district size. Table Four: Average Age District Size Percent Change to Percent Change to % 0.09% % 0.60% % 0.61% Grand Total % 0.34% As noted previously, average age is calculated to give an idea as to whether the student population is, on average, in the early or later part of their K 12 education experience. Ages range from 4 to 18, and as can be seen, the average has consistently been between 11.5 and 12.0 years since From to , statewide the average student age decreased slightly, indicating that there were more students in the earlier grades and suggesting that an increase in student population might happen in the coming years. 151 districts, or 52.8 percent, saw a decline in the average student age for this period. 130 districts, or 45.5 percent, saw an increase in the average student age for this period. Projection data indicates that from to , the statewide average student age is likely to increase slightly, suggesting that a decline in enrollment might be on the horizon. During this time 122 districts, or 42.7 percent, are expected to see a decline in average student age. 162 districts, or 56.6 percent, are expected to see an increase in the average student age. Page 13 of 24

14 Figure Four: Average Age Page 14 of 24

15 Conclusions It is important to note that this analysis is based solely on two pieces of demographic information; county live birth data and public school district enrollment data. There are a variety of other factors that could impact future student enrollment numbers. These results should be used in conjunction with other information available to school districts and communities when planning and looking towards the future. That being said, this data indicates the student population enrollment trends for the next five years should be very similar to what we have seen in the past five years. The total student population is expected to increase slightly overall during that time, but this will come in the form of increases in the next few years followed by slight decreases leading up to Information on grades and average ages does not suggest the nature of the student populations will change dramatically during that time. Note that these conclusions are based on the state student population as a whole. Results at the district level are far more likely to show sharp increases or decreases predicted for the next five years. Appendix B provides instructions on how these district level results can be obtained. Page 15 of 24

16 Appendix A: District Totals District Page 16 of 24 Headcounts Percent Change 101 Erie-Galesburg USD % -1.30% 102 Cimarron-Ensign USD % 2.38% 103 Cheylin USD % 10.08% 105 Rawlins County USD % 17.01% 106 Western Plains USD % % 107 Rock Hills USD % 18.18% 108 Washington County USD % 7.89% 109 Republic County USD % 15.80% 110 Thunder Ridge USD % -3.69% 111 Doniphan West USD % -5.08% 112 Central Plains USD % 16.61% 113 Prairie Hills USD 113 1,271 1,286 1,190 1,146 1,153 1,174 1,126 1,088 1,091 1,086 1,077 1, % -6.39% 114 Riverside USD % % 115 Nemaha Central USD % 9.71% 200 Greeley County USD % 27.24% 202 Turner-Kansas City USD 202 4,025 4,101 4,052 4,100 4,222 4,202 4,196 4,229 4,257 4,110 4,132 4,226 4,253 4,220 4, % 2.41% 203 Piper-Kansas City USD 203 1,583 1,635 1,706 1,745 1,844 1,858 1,935 2,054 2,129 2,276 2,267 2,313 2,404 2,473 2, % 11.69% 204 Bonner Springs USD 204 2,499 2,389 2,498 2,516 2,551 2,546 2,568 2,660 2,771 2,733 2,723 2,749 2,757 2,793 2, % 2.01% 205 Bluestem USD % 7.40% 206 Remington-Whitewater USD % 3.07% 207 Fort Leavenworth USD 207 1,690 1,775 1,967 1,996 1,932 1,904 1,875 1,775 1,873 1,824 1,843 1,757 1,752 1,760 1, % -1.21% 208 WaKeeney USD % -3.38% 209 Moscow USD % 4.44% 210 Hugoton USD 210 1,040 1,008 1,093 1,138 1,169 1,156 1,176 1,162 1,140 1,059 1,121 1,112 1,127 1,080 1, % 2.36% 211 Norton Community USD % 5.85% 212 Northern Valley USD % -4.29% 214 Ulysses USD 214 1,729 1,713 1,715 1,737 1,758 1,758 1,797 1,849 1,810 1,766 1,760 1,722 1,703 1,716 1, % -4.76% 215 Lakin USD % 5.63% 216 Deerfield USD % 3.30% 217 Rolla USD % % 218 Elkhart USD ,026 1,071 1,236 1,054 1,107 1,156 1,136 1,175 1,133 1,081 1, % -8.91% 219 Minneola USD % -5.33% 220 Ashland USD % 1.49% 223 Barnes USD % -1.77% 224 Clifton-Clyde USD % 4.24% 225 Fowler USD % 3.82% 226 Meade USD % -4.37% 227 Hodgeman County USD % -5.14% 229 Blue Valley USD ,797 20,992 21,367 21,663 21,930 22,164 22,405 22,403 22,762 22,852 22,690 22,648 22,401 22,372 22, % -2.24% 230 Spring Hill USD 230 1,865 2,516 3,152 3,635 3,008 2,933 3,100 3,361 3,660 3,930 4,015 4,360 4,667 5,007 5, % 31.88% to to 21-22

17 Headcounts Percent Change District Gardner-Edgerton USD 231 4,307 4,500 4,792 5,112 5,316 5,446 5,530 5,733 5,863 6,041 6,100 6,157 6,235 6,332 6, % 6.14% 232 De Soto USD 232 6,095 6,452 6,547 6,721 6,889 6,980 7,065 7,089 7,057 7,199 7,126 7,096 7,039 7,002 6, % -3.65% 233 Olathe USD ,340 26,842 27,160 27,879 28,190 28,762 29,086 29,314 29,451 29,421 29,576 29,682 29,530 29,516 29, % 0.11% 234 Fort Scott USD 234 2,005 2,037 1,978 1,975 1,924 1,910 1,938 1,906 1,911 1,881 1,883 1,866 1,850 1,838 1, % -3.46% 235 Uniontown USD % -5.87% 237 Smith Center USD % 8.64% 239 North Ottawa County USD % -1.95% 240 Twin Valley USD % 2.98% 241 Wallace County USD % 12.38% 242 Weskan USD % 4.81% 243 Lebo-Waverly USD % % 244 Burlington USD % -2.21% 245 LeRoy-Gridley USD % % 246 Northeast USD % % 247 Cherokee USD % % 248 Girard USD 248 1,045 1,035 1,053 1,080 1,081 1,079 1,038 1,045 1,052 1,035 1,024 1,014 1,012 1,033 1, % -0.87% 249 Frontenac USD % -1.47% 250 Pittsburg USD 250 2,739 2,806 2,890 2,775 2,847 2,939 3,021 3,081 3,104 3,144 3,143 3,171 3,123 3,210 3, % 0.80% 251 North Lyon County USD % -8.61% 252 Southern Lyon County USD % % 253 Emporia USD 253 4,809 4,664 4,622 4,682 4,749 4,664 4,599 4,577 4,680 4,673 4,664 4,615 4,597 4,583 4, % -3.55% 254 Barber County North USD % 22.36% 255 South Barber USD % 2.29% 256 Marmaton Valley USD % -5.48% 257 Iola USD 257 1,495 1,444 1,352 1,344 1,381 1,356 1,347 1,342 1,317 1,305 1,304 1,262 1,232 1,210 1, % % 258 Humboldt USD % -3.44% 259 Wichita USD ,843 47,284 47,758 49,788 49,892 50,364 50,804 51,026 51,002 50,648 51,155 51,076 50,770 50,276 49, % -1.42% 260 Derby USD 260 6,444 6,544 6,671 6,753 6,795 6,950 7,064 7,117 7,133 7,128 7,137 7,129 7,120 7,093 7, % -1.46% 261 Haysville USD 261 4,818 4,917 5,048 5,267 5,240 5,370 5,375 5,507 5,568 5,648 5,659 5,667 5,677 5,655 5, % 0.73% 262 Valley Center USD 262 2,586 2,565 2,593 2,691 2,684 2,722 2,768 2,831 2,868 2,879 2,888 2,909 2,936 2,917 2, % 0.73% 263 Mulvane USD 263 1,932 1,900 1,958 1,940 1,893 1,845 1,867 1,849 1,818 1,821 1,811 1,837 1,834 1,795 1, % -1.54% 264 Clearwater USD 264 1,344 1,347 1,324 1,323 1,260 1,209 1,219 1,192 1,188 1,172 1,159 1,156 1,148 1,114 1, % -6.31% 265 Goddard USD 265 4,960 5,066 5,149 5,181 5,316 5,349 5,504 5,601 5,686 5,688 5,656 5,674 5,675 5,655 5, % -1.16% 266 Maize USD 266 6,423 6,572 6,615 6,636 6,969 7,121 7,219 7,291 7,337 7,357 7,372 7,307 7,300 7,287 7, % -1.30% 267 Renwick USD 267 2,022 1,996 2,014 1,985 1,940 1,923 1,923 1,938 1,901 1,860 1,865 1,823 1,822 1,796 1, % -3.87% 268 Cheney USD % -0.74% 269 Palco USD % 24.47% 270 Plainville USD % % 271 Stockton USD % 14.49% 272 Waconda USD % 10.00% 273 Beloit USD % -0.12% 274 Oakley USD % -3.71% 275 Triplains USD % % Page 17 of to to 21-22

18 Headcounts Percent Change District Graham County USD % 12.60% 282 West Elk USD % 14.05% 283 Elk Valley USD % % 284 Chase County USD % -6.05% 285 Cedar Vale USD % 5.13% 286 Chautauqua County USD % 5.50% 287 West Franklin USD % -4.75% 288 Central Heights USD % -4.75% 289 Wellsville USD % -4.60% 290 Ottawa USD 290 2,539 2,541 2,569 2,543 2,524 2,537 2,520 2,553 2,513 2,516 2,511 2,473 2,463 2,431 2, % -4.17% 291 Grinnell USD % -9.78% 292 Wheatland USD % 19.09% 293 Quinter USD % 13.16% 294 Oberlin USD % 6.92% 297 Saint Francis USD % 18.02% 298 Lincoln USD % 2.78% 299 Sylvan Grove USD % 6.25% 300 South Central USD % -1.74% 303 Ness City USD % -2.43% 305 Salina USD 305 7,154 7,074 7,162 7,347 7,289 7,305 7,305 7,388 7,369 7,396 7,357 7,286 7,260 7,208 7, % -2.76% 306 Southeast Of Saline USD % -5.01% 307 Ell-Saline USD % -9.05% 308 Hutchinson USD 308 4,502 4,530 4,657 4,929 5,154 5,132 5,191 5,164 4,995 4,681 4,632 4,566 4,416 4,296 4, % % 309 Nickerson USD 309 1,252 1,236 1,250 1,241 1,204 1,200 1,191 1,185 1,159 1,195 1,179 1,144 1,123 1,101 1, % -9.62% 310 Fairfield USD % 4.10% 311 Pretty Prairie USD % 0.41% 312 Haven USD 312 1,036 1,043 1,045 1,118 1, % % 313 Buhler USD 313 2,317 2,268 2,272 2,282 2,285 2,303 2,216 2,268 2,309 2,377 2,401 2,375 2,391 2,391 2, % 0.46% 314 Brewster USD % 89.86% 315 Colby USD 315 1, , % 6.09% 316 Golden Plains USD % 4.35% 320 Wamego USD 320 1,359 1,349 1,382 1,444 1,456 1,547 1,557 1,577 1,547 1,554 1,572 1,584 1,577 1,591 1, % 0.51% 321 Kaw Valley USD 321 1,248 1,328 1,274 1,309 1,282 1,271 1,265 1,255 1,243 1,255 1,293 1,287 1,291 1,300 1, % 2.95% 322 Onaga-Havensville-Wheaton USD % -8.11% 323 Rock Creek USD ,043 1,066 1,093 1,133 1,159 1, % 14.96% 325 Phillipsburg USD % 7.41% 326 Logan USD % % 327 Ellsworth USD % 3.43% 329 Mill Creek Valley USD % -5.61% 330 Mission Valley USD % % 331 Kingman-Norwich USD 331 1,124 1,105 1,062 1,100 1,051 1, , % -4.39% 332 Cunningham USD % 9.89% 333 Concordia USD 333 1,142 1,169 1,168 1,133 1,126 1,098 1,078 1,082 1,083 1,095 1,063 1,069 1,061 1,051 1, % -3.20% Page 18 of to to 21-22

19 Headcounts Percent Change District Southern Cloud USD % % 335 North Jackson USD % -3.28% 336 Holton USD 336 1,089 1,082 1,034 1,132 1,174 1,173 1,207 1,182 1,139 1,164 1,145 1,174 1,166 1,176 1, % -0.77% 337 Royal Valley USD % -9.44% 338 Valley Falls USD % 6.35% 339 Jefferson County North USD % -0.21% 340 Jefferson West USD % -5.23% 341 Oskaloosa USD % 6.70% 342 McLouth USD % -5.60% 343 Perry USD % -6.04% 344 Pleasanton USD % 4.96% 345 Seaman USD 345 3,611 3,666 3,730 3,823 3,895 3,959 3,938 3,973 3,861 3,849 3,885 3,868 3,796 3,795 3, % -3.30% 346 Jayhawk USD % 5.89% 347 Kinsley-Offerle USD % -3.36% 348 Baldwin City USD 348 1,410 1,444 1,411 1,435 1,436 1,419 1,434 1,423 1,403 1,444 1,450 1,465 1,481 1,484 1, % 2.70% 349 Stafford USD % 16.32% 350 Saint John-Hudson USD % 12.50% 351 Macksville USD % -5.65% 352 Goodland USD 352 1, ,034 1,072 1,086 1, ,027 1, % 5.22% 353 Wellington USD 353 1,723 1,764 1,730 1,756 1,715 1,675 1,607 1,643 1,623 1,622 1,606 1,594 1,579 1,557 1, % -3.95% 355 Ellinwood USD % 43.74% 356 Conway Springs USD % % 357 Belle Plaine USD % -7.43% 358 Oxford USD % 5.53% 359 Argonia USD % 6.19% 360 Caldwell USD % -5.43% 361 Anthony-Harper-Chaparral USD % 2.90% 362 Prairie View USD 362 1,034 1, ,013 1, % -3.76% 363 Holcomb USD ,011 1,051 1,039 1,035 1,006 1,017 1,050 1, % -5.44% 364 Marysville USD % 8.39% 365 Garnett USD 365 1,157 1,160 1,150 1,137 1,098 1,096 1,127 1,073 1, % % 366 Woodson USD % -8.76% 367 Osawatomie USD 367 1,206 1,189 1,198 1,211 1,192 1,212 1,253 1,284 1,186 1,161 1,140 1,170 1,115 1,121 1, % -4.57% 368 Paola USD 368 2,111 2,054 2,060 2,091 2,076 2,042 1,964 2,025 2,023 2,032 2,000 1,991 1,967 1,965 1, % -5.07% 369 Burrton USD % 6.50% 371 Montezuma USD % -9.47% 372 Silver Lake USD % -1.53% 373 Newton USD 373 3,737 3,670 3,686 3,639 3,770 3,746 3,749 3,700 3,646 3,539 3,496 3,432 3,405 3,359 3, % -7.40% 374 Sublette USD % -9.17% 375 Circle USD 375 1,622 1,617 1,631 1,828 1,893 1,915 1,917 1,965 2,008 1,971 2,008 1,981 1,945 1,920 1, % -3.55% 376 Sterling USD % -3.69% 377 Atchison County USD % % 378 Riley County USD % 5.94% Page 19 of to to 21-22

20 Headcounts Percent Change District Clay Center USD 379 1,434 1,432 1,424 1,406 1,387 1,402 1,428 1,405 1,403 1,379 1,378 1,385 1,379 1,377 1, % -1.23% 380 Vermillion USD % 9.16% 381 Spearville USD % 0.00% 382 Pratt USD 382 1,161 1,134 1,167 1,143 1,211 1,282 1,301 1,320 1,303 1,331 1,372 1,459 1,489 1,486 1, % 15.48% 383 Manhattan-Ogden USD 383 5,766 6,142 6,193 6,375 6,552 6,385 6,562 6,571 6,579 6,620 6,816 6,880 6,970 7,065 7, % 7.67% 384 Blue Valley-Randolph USD % 12.88% 385 Andover USD 385 4,465 4,729 4,901 5,174 5,316 5,523 10,102 8,907 8,045 8,318 9,757 11,520 11,769 12,301 13, % 56.42% 386 Madison-Virgil USD % % 387 Altoona-Midway USD % -3.30% 388 Ellis USD % 1.27% 389 Eureka USD % -1.96% 390 Hamilton USD % % 392 Osborne County USD % -9.72% 393 Solomon USD % -7.78% 394 Rose Hill USD 394 1,777 1,717 1,793 1,797 1,757 1,715 1,693 1,686 1,665 1,622 1,608 1,581 1,576 1,573 1, % -4.62% 395 La Crosse USD % 3.11% 396 Douglass USD % -3.09% 397 Centre USD % 0.62% 398 Peabody-Burns USD % -8.96% 399 Paradise USD % 10.26% 400 Smoky Valley USD 400 1,066 1,043 1,079 1,052 1,062 1,106 1,166 1,114 1,557 1,572 1,648 1,816 2,048 2,332 2, % 57.63% 401 Chase-Raymond USD % % 402 Augusta USD 402 2,347 2,331 2,378 2,338 2,319 2,338 2,361 2,336 2,294 2,295 2,279 2,236 2,190 2,158 2, % -7.19% 403 Otis-Bison USD % 6.15% 404 Riverton USD % -7.15% 405 Lyons USD % 4.07% 407 Russell County USD % -0.12% 408 Marion-Florence USD % -5.76% 409 Atchison USD 409 1,673 1,677 1,743 1,737 1,719 1,701 1,657 1,679 1,718 1,743 1,750 1,782 1,762 1,789 1, % 1.89% 410 Durham-Hillsboro-Lehigh USD % -4.18% 411 Goessel USD % -5.11% 412 Hoxie Community USD % 19.91% 413 Chanute USD 413 1,913 1,912 1,838 1,971 1,908 1,854 1,937 1,901 1,868 1,868 1,883 1,864 1,879 1,866 1, % -1.61% 415 Hiawatha USD % 6.07% 416 Louisburg USD 416 1,688 1,715 1,749 1,723 1,805 1,839 1,825 1,786 1,795 1,793 1,724 1,714 1,654 1,644 1, % -9.93% 417 Morris County USD % 0.13% 418 McPherson USD 418 2,466 2,388 2,387 2,456 2,475 2,479 2,448 2,470 2,502 2,497 2,480 2,482 2,479 2,458 2, % -1.28% 419 Canton-Galva USD % -8.96% 420 Osage City USD % -1.17% 421 Lyndon USD % -1.80% 422 Kiowa County USD % 10.24% 423 Moundridge USD % 2.74% 426 Pike Valley USD % -8.84% Page 20 of to to 21-22

21 Headcounts Percent Change District Great Bend USD 428 2,970 2,949 2,948 3,188 3,184 3,210 3,209 3,223 3,079 2,978 3,006 3,010 2,988 2,938 2, % -3.90% 429 Troy USD % -2.47% 430 South Brown County USD % -4.27% 431 Hoisington USD % 3.63% 432 Victoria USD % 4.17% 434 Santa Fe Trail USD 434 1,170 1,168 1,127 1,112 1,105 1,086 1,043 1,049 1,044 1,091 1,101 1,043 1,054 1,053 1, % -3.57% 435 Abilene USD 435 1,687 1,621 1,652 1,663 1,639 1,622 1,656 1,687 1,674 1,635 1,647 1,614 1,593 1,580 1, % -2.20% 436 Caney Valley USD % % 437 Auburn Washburn USD 437 5,578 5,646 5,652 5,830 5,926 6,037 6,078 6,206 6,291 6,335 6,384 6,450 6,499 6,502 6, % 1.18% 438 Skyline USD % 7.52% 439 Sedgwick USD % % 440 Halstead USD % -7.13% 443 Dodge City USD 443 6,057 5,936 6,181 6,684 6,730 6,880 6,960 7,139 7,160 7,260 7,385 7,360 7,465 7,537 7, % 4.13% 444 Little River USD % 0.00% 445 Coffeyville USD 445 1,909 1,903 1,937 1,930 1,893 1,891 1,844 1,757 1,764 1,778 1,730 1,729 1,683 1,652 1, % -8.27% 446 Independence USD 446 1,961 2,031 2,026 2,022 2,167 2,210 2,211 2,195 2,168 2,137 2,118 2,156 2,128 2,113 2, % -2.06% 447 Cherryvale-Thayer USD , % 2.20% 448 Inman USD % -2.94% 449 Easton USD % -7.88% 450 Shawnee Heights USD 450 3,505 3,430 3,496 3,574 3,619 3,596 3,625 3,642 3,556 3,538 3,569 3,536 3,510 3,487 3, % -2.18% 452 Stanton County USD % % 453 Leavenworth USD 453 4,201 4,069 4,075 3,709 3,755 3,866 3,886 3,919 3,843 3,873 3,901 3,938 3,973 3,938 4, % 4.13% 454 Burlingame USD % -6.98% 456 Marais des Cygnes Valley USD % -5.80% 457 Garden City USD 457 7,265 7,257 7,401 7,590 7,691 7,680 7,640 7,784 7,892 7,775 7,809 7,665 7,635 7,595 7, % -1.35% 458 Basehor-Linwood USD 458 2,181 2,267 2,251 2,233 2,219 2,199 2,348 2,423 2,470 2,549 2,587 2,686 2,742 2,810 2, % 12.91% 459 Bucklin USD % -8.06% 460 Hesston USD % -3.87% 461 Neodesha USD % -3.49% 462 Central USD % 15.18% 463 Udall USD % % 464 Tonganoxie USD 464 1,806 1,850 1,937 1,922 1,887 1,947 1,945 1,986 1,967 1,966 2,014 2,027 2,030 2,047 2, % 4.68% 465 Winfield USD 465 2,547 2,602 2,496 2,508 2,540 2,531 2,454 2,418 2,359 2,306 2,290 2,296 2,228 2,227 2, % -4.68% 466 Scott County USD ,018 1,023 1,030 1,069 1,080 1,104 1, % 8.90% 467 Leoti USD % -5.58% 468 Healy USD % 17.14% 469 Lansing USD 469 2,276 2,370 2,597 2,650 2,646 2,687 2,619 2,553 2,691 2,698 2,725 2,730 2,728 2,778 2, % 5.67% 470 Arkansas City USD 470 2,933 2,875 2,797 2,765 2,821 2,774 2,843 2,975 2,876 2,912 2,920 2,960 2,991 2,997 3, % 3.78% 471 Dexter USD % 30.87% 473 Chapman USD ,080 1,076 1,067 1,066 1,114 1,094 1,127 1,140 1,162 1,167 1, % 11.33% 474 Haviland USD % 6.48% 475 Geary County Schools USD 475 6,964 7,018 7,645 7,955 8,261 8,430 8,222 8,537 8,018 7,966 8,157 8,243 8,184 8,291 8, % 3.84% 476 Copeland USD % % Page 21 of to to 21-22

22 Headcounts Percent Change District Ingalls USD % % 479 Crest USD % 5.38% 480 Liberal USD 480 4,585 4,624 4,719 4,798 4,835 4,948 4,995 5,070 5,051 5,001 4,926 4,928 4,824 4,795 4, % -6.82% 481 Rural Vista USD % 9.27% 482 Dighton USD % -6.05% 483 Kismet-Plains USD % -7.31% 484 Fredonia USD % -5.72% 487 Herington USD % 7.91% 489 Hays USD 489 3,094 2,953 3,037 3,127 3,108 3,067 3,013 3,070 3,119 3,177 3,219 3,283 3,287 3,287 3, % 2.83% 490 El Dorado USD 490 2,115 2,045 2,041 2,046 2,009 2,043 1,998 2,002 1,991 1,968 1,977 1,992 1,999 2,002 2, % 2.03% 491 Eudora USD 491 1,418 1,461 1,500 1,570 1,567 1,597 1,666 1,673 1,743 1,762 1,810 1,806 1,819 1,863 1, % 6.75% 492 Flinthills USD % 2.20% 493 Columbus USD 493 1,226 1,231 1,183 1,085 1,078 1,076 1,053 1, % -3.72% 494 Syracuse USD % -6.03% 495 Fort Larned USD % -6.62% 496 Pawnee Heights USD % 23.68% 497 Lawrence USD ,623 10,863 10,975 11,374 11,639 11,854 11,967 11,859 12,135 12,029 12,019 12,045 11,886 11,813 11, % -1.89% 498 Valley Heights USD % 1.79% 499 Galena USD % -0.12% 500 Kansas City USD ,720 19,810 20,112 20,235 20,515 20,947 21,773 22,129 22,065 22,058 22,230 22,626 22,693 22,718 22, % 2.81% 501 Topeka USD ,353 13,611 13,812 14,194 14,084 14,021 14,095 14,051 14,169 13,794 13,699 13,713 13,637 13,429 13, % -4.44% 502 Lewis USD % % 503 Parsons USD 503 1,406 1,384 1,262 1,356 1,408 1,403 1,384 1,422 1,414 1,363 1,329 1,350 1,336 1,323 1, % -4.04% 504 Oswego USD % 4.56% 505 Chetopa-St. Paul USD % % 506 Labette County USD 506 1,592 1,654 1,682 1,676 1,679 1,660 1,607 1,614 1,608 1,636 1,611 1,592 1,587 1,580 1, % -3.48% 507 Satanta USD % 2.28% 508 Baxter Springs USD ,058 1,059 1,062 1,047 1,051 1,063 1,034 1,008 1, % -9.28% 509 South Haven USD % 14.55% 511 Attica USD % 27.96% 512 Shawnee Mission USD ,831 27,427 27,396 27,876 27,770 27,444 27,419 27,482 27,655 27,521 27,265 26,963 26,850 26,813 26, % -2.95% KS State of Kansas 464, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 0.66% to to Page 22 of 24

23 Appendix B: Running District-Level Projections The following are the steps to running district level projections using KASB s online tools. 1. Visit 2. Select the district (or districts) you wish to include in your projections using the filters on the right side of the Overview page. 3. If you wish to narrow the results by year, you can also do that on the Overview page. 4. Use the tabs across the top to select the graph or table you wish to view. 5. For graphs, you can download by selecting the Download menu in the lower right corner of the Tableau tool then selecting either PDF or Image. 6. For tables, you can download the data in a comma separated file that can be opened in Excel by selecting Crosstab. 7. For additional map options, visit and follow steps 2 5 above. Page 23 of 24

24 Kansas Association of School Boards Serving Educational Leaders, Inspiring Student Success 1420 SW Arrowhead Road * Topeka, KS kasbresearch.org research@kasb.org Page 24 of 24