Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment Projections. Enrollment Information

Transcription

1 Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment Projections RISE Committee Presentation March 13, 2007 Enrollment Information Ten Year District Enrollment Projection Five Year Enrollment Projection by School Migration Ratios by Grade Public and Private School Enrollment BOE Planning Limitations GPS Preschool Description Accuracy of Enrollment Projections Consultant Enrollment Projections 1

2 Questions to consider What demographic factors affect school enrollment? How is enrollment projected? What is the projected enrollment for the next ten years? What is the relationship between public and private school enrollment in Greenwich? How accurate is the enrollment projection? Enrollment projections are variable by nature. While it is generally possible to predict District enrollment in the short term with reasonable confidence, it is difficult to project enrollment during periods of transition. Given the fact that small changes in enrollment can have a dramatic impact when compounded over time, ten-year or school based enrollment projections are most useful for identifying possible trends or patterns. 2

3 What demographic factors affect school enrollment? Demographic Factors Town population trend Age of the population Changes in available housing stock Birth rate Holding students out of Kindergarten Migration in and out of town Migration to and from private school Who are we teaching? 3

4 How is enrollment projected? Projecting Enrollment Cohort Survival Most of the students in the system this year will remain in the system next year Migration rate tracks the changes in the size of cohorts as they move from grade to grade Kindergarten vs Graduating Seniors Ten year projection is based on the Kindergarten enrollment of students who will not be born for another five years 4

5 What is the projected enrollment for the next ten years? 12,000 11,000 10,000 High ,110 Greenwich Public Schools Actual and Projected Enrollment Grades PreK High ,113 Current ,954 5 year Projection ,438 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Low ,

6 Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment History and Projected Enrollment Elementary enrollment peaks at 4,432 Actual Projection High School enrollment peaks at 2, Middle School enrollment peaks at 2, Elementary Middle School High School Greenwich Public Schools Net Change in Enrollment Actual Projected K vs Gr 12 Migration Net Change in Enrollment 6

7 What is the relationship between public and private school enrollment in Greenwich? Town of Greenwich Residents Public and Private School Enrollment Kindergarten through Grade Public School Enrollment Private School Enrollment 7

8 Greenwich Residents Attending Public School Grades K % 78.9% 78.5% 77.5% 77.7% 77.2% 77.3% 77.0% 76.5% 76.4% 76.0% 75.9% 76.2% 75.7% 75.3% 75.3% Greenwich Public Schools Student Migration Previous Year Gr K-11 to Current Year Gr Private School Migration Out of Town Migration Migration 8

9 How accurate is the enrollment projection? Greenwich Public Schools Accuracy of Projection by Year of Projection to /- 6.2% +/- 4.4% +/- 3.1% +/- 1.8% +/-.7% 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year 9

10 Bonus Question: How many residency investigations does the District conduct each year? GPS Residency Investigations Full Investigations Vehicle Registration Checks* Sponsorships Reviewed* Students Investigated Student Residency Verified Student Withdrawals Student Investigation Pending Cost of Investigations $5,200 $10,600 $12,500 $11,960 $8,905 Note: Vehicle registration checks or sponsorship review may result in full investigations. 10

11 Summary Public school elementary enrollment peaked in 1999 at 4,432 students and has trended downward over the last seven years by 325 students. Over the next five years, elementary enrollment is projected to decline another 151 students. Over the last two years, the number of students entering kindergarten and the number of students graduating from GHS have been roughly equal. The primary factor driving declines in actual enrollment for the last three years and projected enrollment for the next ten years is migration. Discussion Questions What enrollment information is important to the work of the RISE committee? What additional enrollment information does the RISE committee need? 11

12 Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment Projections Prepared by the Office of Research and Evaluation Revised October 2, 2006

13 Executive Summary From a peak of 11,110 students in 1970, enrollment trended down over the next eighteen years to 6,453 students in Over the next fifteen years, enrollment increased to 9,113 students in Enrollment for the current school year is 8,954, a decline of 49 students from 2005 and 159 students from the recent peak. Over the next year, enrollment is projected to decrease an additional 127 students to 8,827 students in Due to the anticipated decrease in the size of cohorts entering kindergarten and increased migration out of the public school system, it is projected that enrollment will decline 947 students over the next ten years. The factors precipitating this decrease will be discussed in further detail in the body of the report. Actual and projected enrollment trends from 1962 to 2016 are summarized in the chart below: 12, ,110 Greenwich Public Schools Actual and Projected Enrollment Grades PreK ,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Introduction to Enrollment Projection Actual , , Projected , The reader is reminded that enrollment projections are variable by nature. While it is generally possible to predict District enrollment in the short term (one or two years) with reasonable confidence, it is difficult to project enrollment during the periods of transition from increase to decrease or decrease to increase. Given the fact that small changes in enrollment patterns in a single school or grade can have a dramatic effect when compounded over time, ten-year or school-based enrollment projections are most useful for identifying possible trends or patterns. However, long-term enrollment projections should not be the sole basis of decisions

14 Methodology Used to Project Enrollment Past practice has been to compare the District enrollment projection with independent enrollment projections produced by the Connecticut State Department of Education (SDE) and a consulting firm, Education Services, Inc. (consultant). While the final enrollment projection is determined using a model developed within the District, the independent projections are used to verify and fine tune the District projection. School enrollment has a stable characteristic that makes it possible to project future enrollments with relative accuracy; most of the students who will be in school next year are already in school this year. A base enrollment projection can be determined by moving each grade to the next higher grade each year. This technique is known as cohort survival. Using cohort survival, uncertainty is reduced to two elements: migration patterns and the projection of kindergarten enrollment. Migration is the influx of students (either positive or negative) as a cohort moves from school year to school year. Historical averages are commonly used to project migration ratios. In this report, a weighted three-year average is used to determine migration ratios. This represents a change from previous years where a five-year average was used. The shorter time period was selected given the recent volatility of migration patterns and should serve to make the projections more sensitive to shifts in enrollment. SDE and the consultant use similar algorithms to determine migration ratios. Kindergarten enrollment usually represents the most challenging element in an enrollment projection. A ten year projection is based on the Kindergarten enrollment of students who will not be born for another five years. There are two schools of thought as to how to approach projecting Kindergarten enrollment. One approach is to use a purely mathematical model and rely on well established demographic trends to produce an accurate projection. This works particularly well in a community with a stable population such as Greenwich and is the primary method utilized in both the consultant and District projection models. Kindergarten enrollment is projected by the Connecticut State Department of Education using a model that incorporates births to Greenwich residents, the age of students entering Kindergarten and retention rates. Discussion of Enrollment Trends A major factor affecting enrollment is the net migration of students into or out of the public school system after Kindergarten. This migration can be attributed to two variables: the movement of resident students to and from private school and the movement of students into and out of Greenwich. Private school migration of resident students has moved in a range of +39 students to -53 students over the last nine years with the highest gain from private school in 2002 and the largest loss to private school in During this time period, the percentage of resident students enrolled in the public school system has decreased from 77.3% in 1996 to 75.3% in Migration of students enrolled in the public school system into and out of town has ranged from a gain - 3 -

15 of 59 students in 1999 to a loss of 127 students in The addition of private school migration and out of town migration yields the net change in the size of the cohort from year to year. The student migration pattern over the last ten years is summarized in the chart below: Greenwich Public Schools Student Migration Previous Year Gr K-11 to Current Year Gr Private School Migration Out of Town Migration Migration In 1999, the net change of students moving in and out of town was +59 students. This increase was partially offset by the net loss of 13 students to private school. migration from 1998 to 1999 was +46 students. In 2002, the variables reversed as the net change out of town of -127 students was offset by the net gain 39 students from private school. migration from 2001 to 2002 was -88 students. In 2003 and 2004, the net change for both private school and out of town was negative resulting in the loss of -62 and -105 students. In 2005, the migration of students out of town reached a ten year high of 157 students and was slightly offset by the net migration of 7 students from private to public school. Disaggregated migration data for 2006 will not be available until private schools report their official enrollment to the State Department of Education later in the fall. However, total migration out of the school system between the 2005 and 2006 was 105 students. For the last six years, total migration has been negative and the rate of migration out of the school system has been increasing. The historical change in total migration is used to establish the migration ratio used to project future enrollment and is incorporated into the enrollment projections

16 A second factor affecting enrollment is the difference between the size of the group of students entering Kindergarten and the number of high school graduates. From 1994 to 2003, Kindergarten enrollment was relatively stable in a range from 715 students to 760 students. Over the past three years, Kindergarten enrollment vacillated from 695 students in 2004 to 652 students in 2005 to 706 students in Given the fact that average enrollment for the past three years is less than average enrollment for the ten year period from 1004 to 2003 and evidence that the total cohort of Kindergarten age students in Greenwich is declining, Kindergarten enrollment is projected to gradually decline over the next ten years from 690 students in 2007 to 623 students in The size of the graduating class at Greenwich High School has been steadily increasing from a low of 472 students in 2001 to a high of 695 students in When the number of students entering Kindergarten exceeds the number of students who graduated the previous school year, the net effect on enrollment is positive. This has been the case for the last ten years and has been the primary factor driving recent increases in enrollment. From 1996 to 2003, the net difference between the size of the entering Kindergarten and graduating high school class averaged +235 students. However, the net difference declined to 49 students in 2005 as the larger cohorts that entered Kindergarten in the early 1990 s moved through the high school. Due to offsetting declines in the size of cohorts due to migration, the net difference between the size of entering Kindergartens and graduating classes is projected to be relatively stable through The combined impact of migration and Kindergarten size on actual and projected enrollment is summarized in the chart below: Greenwich Public Schools Net Change in Enrollment Actual Projected K vs Gr 12 Migration Net Change in Enrollment - 5 -

17 It is important to note that the recent increase in public school enrollment in Greenwich was primarily driven by the size of Kindergarten cohorts relative to the graduating high school class. The decrease in enrollment that began in 2004 and is projected to continue for the next ten years is largely driven by migration out of town and to private school. The reader is once again reminded that enrollment projections are best guess estimates of what will happen in the future and are subject to change. Factors that could affect the accuracy of the projection include the size of the entering Kindergarten cohort, migration of resident students to or from private school, and migration of students in or out of Greenwich. Accuracy of the One Year Enrollment Projection Due to changes in the rate of migration out of the school system and unanticipated decreases in the size of Kindergarten cohorts, enrollment projections for 2004 and 2005 were less accurate than in previous years. In 2006, actual enrollment exceeded the projection for the first time in seven years Actual Enrollment Year Projection Over/Under Projection % Projection 99.9% 99.6% 99.6% 99.9% 98.3% 98.4% 100.6% Strategic Implications of Projected Enrollment While the purpose of this report is to discuss recent trends in enrollment and provide an estimate of future enrollment, declining enrollment has strategic implications for the community and the operation of the public school system. The questions below serve to frame the discussion: It is likely that cost of living increases in future operating budgets will be offset by decreases in enrollment. How will the money that was used in previous years to fund increases in enrollment be allocated? How will the District meet the challenge of continuing to provide the same level of programming and services as enrollment declines? Given the uncertainty of projected trends in enrollment, how can the district allocate resources to account for variances between projected and actual enrollment? How will the district respond to racial imbalance at New Lebanon elementary school? What limitations should guide staff planning for the impact of declining enrollment on facility utilization and racial imbalance? - 6 -

18 List of Attached Charts and Tables Enrollment Projection Actual and Projected Enrollments by Grade Five Year Enrollment Projection by School Migration Ratios by Grade Public and Private School Enrollment 1996 to 2005 Planning Limitations for Declining Enrollment - 7 -

19 GREENWICH PUBLIC SCHOOLS Enrollment Projection K Project Project Project Project Project Project Cos Cob Dundee Glenville Hamilton Avenue Julian Curtiss New Lebanon North Mianus North Street Old Greenwich Parkway Riverside Project Project Project Central Middle Eastern Middle Western Middle Project Project Project Project High School Pre-School Project 130 (Does not include HA Magnet Preschool) District 8827 Projected Classroom Staffing Enroll Ratio Staff Elementary (Includes staffing contingency) Middle School High School Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

20 Greenwich Public Schools Actual and Projected Enrollment by Grade School Year K K-6 K Spec Pre-K District , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,007 Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

21 Cos Cob Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

22 Dundee Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

23 Glenville Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

24 Hamilton Avenue Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evalution 10/2/2006 JPC

25 Julian Curtiss Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

26 New Lebanon Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

27 North Mianus Enrollment K Actuals Dundee Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

28 North Street Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

29 Old Greenwich Enrollment K Actuals Dundee Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

30 Parkway Enrollment K Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

31 Riverside Enrollment K Actuals Dundee Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

32 Central Middle School Enrollment Gr 5 Feeder Gr Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

33 Eastern Middle School Enrollment Gr 5 Feeder Gr Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

34 Western Middle School Enrollment Gr 5 Feeder Gr Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

35 Greenwich High School Enrollment Gr 8 Feeder Gr Actuals Project Actual Projection Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

36 Greenwich Public Schools Migration Ratios School Year K K-12 Migration Ratio % 98% 101% 100% 100% 97% 97% 105% 102% 111% 102% 99% 101.9% % 97% 103% 99% 100% 99% 100% 105% 101% 104% 99% 95% 99.8% % 96% 102% 101% 102% 97% 101% 100% 100% 106% 104% 99% 101.1% % 104% 100% 98% 102% 98% 101% 100% 103% 109% 106% 100% 101.9% % 99% 103% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 107% 110% 106% 101% 103.3% % 103% 98% 99% 98% 104% 101% 102% 107% 107% 99% 98% 101.3% % 101% 102% 100% 100% 93% 99% 100% 106% 110% 101% 101% 101.5% % 101% 100% 99% 101% 90% 104% 100% 107% 107% 103% 100% 101.3% % 100% 104% 101% 100% 96% 102% 98% 110% 101% 98% 97% 100.8% % 98% 99% 102% 96% 96% 98% 98% 109% 102% 101% 97% 99.7% % 99% 103% 103% 96% 96% 98% 99% 108% 103% 99% 95% 99.8% % 99% 102% 96% 103% 94% 97% 99% 104% 96% 99% 98% 99.1% % 99% 100% 100% 97% 93% 98% 99% 112% 98% 100% 99% 99.9% % 98% 101% 101% 98% 95% 104% 104% 108% 99% 109% 114% 102.1% % 101% 99% 100% 101% 95% 102% 98% 108% 106% 103% 100% 100.9% % 99% 98% 100% 96% 95% 101% 100% 114% 105% 98% 97% 100.1% % 97% 102% 101% 98% 96% 100% 99% 105% 104% 98% 97% 99.7% % 99% 100% 98% 97% 97% 97% 99% 105% 103% 99% 98% 99.2% % 98% 99% 98% 96% 93% 100% 101% 107% 104% 99% 100% 99.3% % 97% 100% 99% 97% 98% 100% 98% 104% 100% 97% 100% 98.7% % 98% 98% 99% 94% 93% 97% 96% 104% 102% 97% 99% 98.2% % 98% 99% 100% 97% 96% 99% 99% 103% 102% 95% 98% 98.7% Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

37 Public and Non-Public School Enrollment Greenwich Residents Brunswick Academy Convent of the Sacred Heart Greenwich Academy Greenwich Country Day School Eagle Hill Greenwich Catholic Japanese School Whitby School Stanwich School Mead School Daycroft School St. Mary's Other (Out-of-town CT) Non Public Greenwich Public Schools School Population % Attending GPS 77.3% 77.0% 76.5% 76.4% 76.0% 75.9% 76.2% 75.7% 75.3% 75.3% % Attending GPS K % 78.8% 77.8% 77.3% 76.1% 75.4% 75.6% 75.0% 74.9% 75.1% % Attending GPS % 71.5% 72.4% 72.8% 73.5% 74.3% 73.8% 73.4% 72.2% 71.2% % Attending GPS % 79.2% 78.5% 79.2% 79.7% 80.0% 81.0% 80.6% 79.9% 79.0% Research and Evaluation 10/2/2006 JPC

38 Greenwich Public Schools Planning Limitations for Declining Enrollment Facility planning shall not fail to consider: 1. The best interests of students as expressed through the District s mission, vision and strategic direction. 2. The District s commitment to providing equivalent programs and services, class sizes, and teacher/student ratios for all schools at a given grade level. 3. The District s facility standards. 4. The relationship between and among a school s capacity, space utilization, and class size. Capacity is defined as the number of regular K-5 classrooms multiplied by the weighted mid-point average of the Board s elementary class size guidelines (currently 22) Utilization is defined as the ratio, expressed as a percent, of enrollment to capacity. Class size is defined as the optimum number of students, expressed as a range, for a given grade; used as the basis for staff deployment and may be subject to collective bargaining. 5. Five year enrollment projections at the elementary level which project space utilization for the K-5 network of schools below 70% or exceeding 85%; under which conditions the Board may consider space utilization options including rental of space for non-educational use, closing off sections of the building, internal redesign of space, temporary or auxiliary space, scheduling options, the addition of space, redistricting or school closings. 6. If the network of elementary schools utilization is within an acceptable range (70% - 85%) but an individual school varies +/- 10% from the District average the Board shall consider alternatives for utilization. 7. Implementation and operation costs including but not limited to relocation, personnel, maintenance, energy conservation, capital improvements, and student transportation requirements. 8. Annual room inventories to determine the amount of space required for delivery of core programs and services in addition to regular classrooms. 9. The potential impact of future programmatic changes (e.g., magnet school, pre-k choice, etc.) on school utilization. 10. The District s desire to retain and maintain all current school facilities for future space contingency. 11. The impact on racial balance and accessibility for students with disabilities. 12. The benefits of continuity for students and their families based on the goal of finding permanent or at least semi-permanent locations to minimize disruption to programs and services and costs associated with relocation. Greenwich Public Schools March 2006

39 GPS Preschool Program The Greenwich Public Schools Preschool Program serves special needs and typically developing students in the same classrooms. Through a structured, play-based program, each child participates in instructional activities/experiences which address the areas of communication, cognition, self-help, fine/gross motor and social emotional development. Ten typically developing students and 5-6 special needs students are served in each Preschool class. During the school year, the Program served ninety (90) typical students and forty-seven (47) special needs students in nine classrooms, located as follows: two classes at Cos Cob, two classes at Hamilton Avenue, two classes at North Street, two classes at Old Greenwich and one class at New Lebanon School. Each class is staffed by a teacher certified in special education/early childhood and three paraprofessionals. Support staff include speech therapists, an occupational therapist, a physical therapist, a psychologist and a special educator who serves as a liaison to families. The program runs from 8:30 a.m. 1:30 p.m. daily. The Preschool Program utilizes the Connecticut Preschool Curriculum Framework. The Framework is organized into four developmental domains personal and social, physical, cognitive and creative expression/aesthetic development. To accomplish the performance standards in the cognitive area and to bring the Preschool in line with the rest of the District, the Program began using the Everyday Math curriculum (PreK component) during the school year. In the literacy area, after reviewing a variety of curriculum materials, the Preschool staff decided to utilize the Hampton Brown materials beginning in the school year. Children with special needs enter the Preschool Program in one of three ways: transitioning from the CT Birth-to-Three system, relocating to Greenwich with a current IEP (Individualized Education Program) or via referral from community preschool and/or parent. An IEP is developed for every child who is found to have special needs. During the time that the special education student is in the Preschool Program, regularly scheduled team meetings take place in order to monitor the individual student s progress toward mastery of IEP goals/objectives. The number of total spots available for typical children varies from year to year, depending on how many classes are planned, how many children will be returning, and how many siblings of current/former students wish to attend. Children of GPS teachers have received priority for placement as have children of town employees. The remaining spots have been filled by lottery. The tuition rate for typical students is set yearly by the Board of Education. There is no fee for identified special education students.

40 GPS Preschool Program School Year (as of March 5, 2007) # Typical # Special ed. # free/reduced lunch Cos Cob Ham Ave New Leb North St Old Greenwich TOTAL school year 10 classes 6 classes (does not include Hamilton Avenue) Typicals Capacity 60 (10 in each class) # of returners 32 # of available spots 28 # of applicants 142 # of spots to be offered 28 # of people on wait list 114

41 4 classes - Hamilton Avenue Typicals Capacity 48 (12 in each class) Magnet School Applicants 54 Hamilton Avenue attendance zone students, teachers children, and siblings of current magnet students 34 # of magnet spots available 14 All 10 Preschool Classes Special needs students Hamilton Avenue capacity (3 in each class) 12 Projected Enrollment 12 6 classes capacity (6 in each class) 36 Projected Enrollment 36 48

42 Greenwich Public Schools Accuracy of District Projection Projections Year Actual 1 year % 1 year 2 year % 2 year 3 year % 3 year 4 year % 4 year 5 year % 5 year % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year Mean 0.7% 1.8% 3.1% 4.4% 6.2% Research and Evaluation 3/9/2007 JPC

43 Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment by Grade School Year K K-6 K Spec Pre-K District , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,886 Research and Evaluation 10/1/99 JPC

44 Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment by Grade School Year K K-6 K Spec Pre-K District , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,042 Research and Evaluation 10/1/00 JPC