Pittsburgh Auto Outlook

Transcription

1 Covering Second Quarter 2012 Volume 21, Number 3 Pittsburgh Auto Outlook Sponsored by: Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association FORECAST Area Market Gains Strength in Second Quarter Increases likely to continue into 2013 On balance, the Pittsburgh Area new retail light vehicle market had a pretty good first half of 2012, with area registrations increasing 5.1% versus a year earlier. And the positive momentum is likely to continue for the second half of the year as well, with the market almost certain to move higher versus 2011, when sales were held back due to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. What s lies ahead for 2013? Another increase is likely, but at this point, it looks like the rate of increase is likely to ease. Auto Outlook is currently projecting a 6.1% improvement for 2013, below the 7.9% increase expected for this year. Why do we think the pace of the recovery will ease somewhat next year? Here are the three primary reasons. First, economic growth is expected to remain sluggish, as likely fiscal tightening by the Federal government will limit growth, and the European financial crisis is likely to put a damper on the global economy. Second, the unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively high, with slim gains in employment. And third, although households have made headway in reducing debt, there is still a lot of work to do in curing ailing balance sheets, which are still on the mend following the financial crisis. At this point, it seems highly unlikely that these events will derail the new vehicle market recovery. Indeed, our basic outlook has remained intact since the recession hit in 2008 and 2009: the market will remain on its long term improvement path, but the recovery will take longer and proceed much more slowly than the 2009 collapse, which hit hard and fast. New light vehicle registrations 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Annual Trend in Area Market 117, , , , ,000 Market is predicted to improve 7.9% in Forecast 146, Forecast The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the area from 2008 thru 2011, and Auto Outlook s projections for 2012 and Key Market Trends 1. Greater Pittsburgh area new retail light vehicle registrations increased 5.1% in the first half of 2012 versus a year earlier, below the 9.9% improvement in the Nation. 2. Auto Outlook projects that the area new vehicle market will improve 7.9% for all of this year, with an increase likely in 2013 as well. The uptick next year would mark the fourth consecutive annual increase. 3. Higher fuel prices earlier this year and many key new vehicle introductions have given a boost to car sales in the area. New retail car registrations were up 6.6% in the first half of 12 and market share increased. 4. Among the top 25 selling brands, Chrysler, Jeep, Toyota, Dodge (including Ram), and BMW have had the largest increases so far this year. Area registrations for each of the five brands were up more than 15%. 5. Chevrolet, Subaru, Jeep, and Kia are relatively strong sellers in the area market. Vehicle registrations for the four brands easily exceed expected levels, which are calculated from National market share (see page 7 for full analysis). Market Summary YTD '11 YTD '12 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '11 to '12 YTD '12 TOTAL 65,105 68, % 0.0% Car 31,180 33, % 48.6% Light Truck 33,925 35, % 51.4% Detroit Three 29,785 31, % 45.7% European 4,190 4, % 7.0% Japanese 22,230 23, % 34.3% Korean 8,900 8, % 13.0% Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford and Chrysler. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive.

2 Page 2 Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS Area Market Up 8.8% in 2nd Quarter vs. 13.7% Increase in U.S. QUARTERLY TREND QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Percent Change in New Vehicle Market Area and U.S. Five Years of Second Quarter Results in Area Market % change versus year earlier 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Area U.S. On a percentage change basis, the area market trailed the U.S. in the Second Quarter. New retail light vehicle registrations The market was up by over 9,000 units in the Second Quarter of this year versus % % '11 Q4 '11 '12 Q2 '12 Area 1.6% 14.1% 1.0% 8.8% U.S. 3.7% 8.0% 5.8% 13.7% 0 Q2 '08 Q2 '09 Q2 '10 Q2 '11 Q2 '12 Regs Second quarter registrations during past five years Pittsburgh Auto Outlook Covering Second Quarter 2012 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. 5 Great Valley Parkway Malvern, PA Phone: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to Pittsburgh Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association. Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections presented in Pittsburgh Auto Outlook. Consequently, Auto Outlook, Inc. is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of Pittsburgh Auto Outlook. ANSWERS DRIVE RESULTS. You need insights into your marketplace to make the best decisions to maximize profits. The AutoCount Dealer Report analyzes full details on new and used competitive dealer market share, down to specific areas you define. You bring the questions. We ll bring the answers. Experian Automotive is the data provider for Auto Outlook. Explanation of Data Data presented in Auto Outlook measures new vehicle registrations in the Pittsburgh Area. Monthly recording of registrations occurs when the data is processed by PennDOT.

3 Covering Second Quarter 2012 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: BRAND MARKET SHARE European Brands Are Up MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Green Vehicle Share Holds Steady Change in Area Market Share YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011 Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) European Japanese Detroit Three Korean -0.7 European share is up 0.6 of a point so far this year Change in market share '09 Q4 '09 '10 Alternative powertrain market share has trended higher during the past three years. Q2 '10 '10 Trendline Q4 '10 '11 Q2 '11 '11 Q4 '11 '12 Q2 '12 The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share for four primary brand segments. The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the area. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. MARKET TRACKER - SEGMENTS Small Car Shares Moves Higher in Area and U.S. Change in Segment Market Share YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011 thru June Pittsburgh Area and U.S. Markets Typical models in segments: Small Car: Hyundai Elantra Mid Size & Large Car: Toyota Camry Luxury & Sports Car: BMW 3-Series Pickup: Ford F-Series Van: Honda Odyssey Compact SUV: Jeep Liberty Mid Size SUV: Jeep Grand Cherokee Full Size SUV: Chevrolet Tahoe Luxury SUV: Lexus RX Small Car Pickup Compact SUV Luxury and Sports Car Van Mid Size and Large Car Luxury SUV Full Size SUV Mid Size SUV Small Car market share increased in both the area and U.S. markets. Area US Change in market share

4 Page 4 Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook Brand Registrations Report Greater Pittsburgh Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Second Quarter YTD thru June Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 2Q Q 2012 % change 2Q Q 2012 Change YTD '11 YTD '12 % change YTD '11 YTD '12 Change TOTAL 33,874 36, ,105 68, Cars 16,934 18, ,180 33, Light Trucks 16,940 18, ,925 35, Domestic Brands 15,251 16, ,785 31, European Brands 2,334 2, ,190 4, Japanese Brands 11,372 12, ,230 23, Korean Brands 4,917 5, ,900 8, Acura Audi BMW Buick ,111 1, Cadillac , Chevrolet 4,747 4, ,705 9, Chrysler , Dodge (incl. Ram) 1,494 1, ,891 3, Fiat Ford 4,497 4, ,298 8, GMC 1,152 1, ,438 2, Honda 3,134 3, ,150 6, Hyundai 2,543 2, ,588 4, Infiniti Jaguar Jeep 1,549 2, ,828 3, Kia 2,374 2, ,312 4, Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda ,080 1, Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan 2,084 1, ,318 3, Porsche Saab smart Subaru 1,759 1, ,235 3, Suzuki Toyota/Scion 2,460 3, ,932 6, Volkswagen ,362 1, Volvo Other Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the Greater Pittsburgh Area market. Figures are shown for the Second Quarters of 2011 and 2012, and year-to-date figures for 2011 and The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow.

5 Covering Second Quarter 2012 Page 5 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Chrysler Posts Largest Gain So Far This Year vs Toyota new retail registrations improve 29.7% from First to Second Quarter of this year The graph below provides a quick snapshot of brand sales performance in the area market. For the top 20 selling brands, it shows the percent change in new retail light vehicle registrations during the first six months of this year versus the same period a year earlier, and the change from the First Quarter of 2012 to the Second Quarter. Brands are shown from top to bottom based on the year-to-date percent change. Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive. Percent Change in Area New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (Top 20 Selling Brands) YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011 and Second Quarter 2012 vs. First Quarter 2012 Chrysler 35.7% 50.9% Jeep 12.3% 35.2% Toyota/Scion 23.7% 29.7% Dodge 12.5% 19.6% BMW Volkswagen 15.5% 19.7% 13.4% 40.5% Subaru 8.8% 9.2% Mazda 6.5% 26.8% Suzuki Ford Honda 4.6% 2.7% 6.5% 2.4% 22.5% Chrysler had the largest gain during the first half of Improving supplies helped Toyota post a 29.7% gain from the First to the Second Quarter of this year. 38.2% Kia 1.8% 22.4% Hyundai -1.3% 38.0% Mercedes Chevrolet -3.2% -3.2% 6.9% 15.6% YTD '12 vs. YTD '11 2Q '12 vs. 1Q '12 GMC -5.4% -2.5% Buick -5.5% 26.8% Acura Nissan Cadillac -8.6% -9.4% -6.0% -14.4% -11.7% 54.6% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

6 Page 6 Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Chevrolet is Area Car Market Share Leader Ford leads for light trucks; Jeep market share moves higher The two graphs below show market share for the top ten car and light truck brands for the first six months of 2011 and Brands are shown from left to right on each graph based on first half 2012 market share. Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive. 18.0% Brand Market Share in Area Car Market - YTD 2011 and YTD 2012, thru June Top Ten Brands only 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Chevrolet is the best selling brand in the area car market. Toyota, Kia, and Subaru have posted big gains this year. YTD '11 YTD ' % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Chevrolet Hyundai Honda Toyota/Scion Subaru Ford Kia Nissan Volkswagen Dodge YTD ' % 11.5% 10.1% 6.9% 7.3% 9.0% 6.4% 6.5% 3.7% 2.2% YTD ' % 10.7% 8.9% 8.6% 8.3% 8.2% 7.7% 5.1% 4.1% 2.8% 18.0% Brand Market Share in Area Light Truck Market - YTD 2011 and YTD 2012, thru June Top Ten Brands only 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Ford is the area light truck leader, while Jeep, Toyota, and Dodge (including Ram) market shares have moved higher in YTD '11 YTD ' % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Ford Chevrolet Jeep Honda Toyota/Scion Dodge GMC Nissan Kia Hyundai YTD ' % 13.9% 8.4% 9.0% 8.3% 6.6% 7.1% 6.9% 6.9% 3.1% YTD ' % 12.9% 11.0% 9.6% 9.4% 7.3% 6.5% 6.4% 5.3% 2.8%

7 Covering Second Quarter 2012 Page 7 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE Chevrolet and Subaru Relatively Strong Performers in Area Jeep and Kia also rank high The graph below provides an indicator of brands that are popular in the Pittsburgh Area (relative to the National standard), and those that are not. Here s how it works: For the top 30 selling brands in the area, each brand s share of the U.S. market is multiplied by retail registrations in the area during the first six months of This yields a target for the area market. Target registrations are subtracted from actual registrations to derive the measurement of sales performance. Brands at the top of the graph (i.e., Chevrolet, Subaru, Jeep, and Kia) are relatively strong sellers in the area, with actual registrations exceeding the calculated target by a large margin. For instance, Chevrolet registrations exceeded the target by 1,866 units. Source for registration data: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive. Greater Pittsburgh Area Retail Market Performance based on registrations for YTD 2012 thru June Actual registrations minus target (area industry registrations times U.S. market share) Chevrolet Subaru Jeep Kia Hyundai Suzuki Dodge GMC Buick Cadillac Chrysler Fiat Mitsubishi Lincoln Volvo Porsche Land Rover Mazda MINI Acura Infiniti Audi BMW Ford Volkswagen Mercedes Lexus Nissan Honda Toyota/Scion Chevrolet, Subaru, Jeep, and Kia are strong sellers in the area, with actual registrations exceeding target by a large margin ,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3, Actual registrations minus target (area industry registrations times U.S. market share)

8 Page 8 Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook FORECAST DETERMINANTS Three Primary Factors Impacting New Vehicle Sales Most indicators point to continued improvement in area new vehicle market #1 Consumer Affordability Affordability for new vehicles is at close to record strong levels Impact on new vehicle sales: POSITIVE Consumer affordability for new vehicles remained at historically strong levels in the First Quarter of 2012, the latest reading. The purchase and financing of an average priced new vehicle took 23.2 weeks of household in the First Quarter of 12, down from a year earlier. Source: Comerica Bank. Weeks of income needed to buy a new vehicle Comerica Bank Auto Affordability Index 05 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Quarters #2 Consumer Debt The consumer debt burden is easing from the highs reached in 2006 Impact on new vehicle sales: MOSTLY POSITIVE Due primarily to the write off of bad loans, the consumer debt burden is easing. Although households still have some work to do in fixing their ailing balance sheets, shrinking debt is definitely good news for retail spending and new vehicle sales. Source: Federal Reserve. Ratio of debt service to disposable personal income Ratio of Debt Service to Disposable Personal Income Quarters #3 Pent Up Demand Although improving, sales have remained below trend line levels for several years, resulting in significant pent up demand Impact on new vehicle sales: POSITIVE Accumulated pent up demand resulting from depressed sales between 2009 and 2011 is a powerful force that will almost certainly push new vehicle sales higher. Source for sales data: CNW Marketing Research. U.S. new vehicle sales (millions of units) U.S. New Vehicle Sales Trend Line Actual Sales Years

9 Covering Second Quarter 2012 Page 9 MODEL RANKINGS Subaru Legacy is on Top of Standard Mid Size Car Segment Kia Sorento is best-selling Mid Size SUV The table below shows the top five selling models during the first six months of 2012 in 16 primary market segments. In addition to unit registrations, it also shows each model s market share in its respective segment. Subaru Legacy held the top spot as the bestselling Standard Mid Size Car, with a 15% share. Chevrolet Cruze was first among Sub Compact Cars, followed by Hyundai Elantra and Honda Civic. Cadillac CTS was the best seller among Near Luxury Cars. Dodge Caravan and Honda CRV were the best selling Mini Van and Compact SUV, respectively. Ford Explorer was first among Full Size SUVs (including Crossovers). Cadillac SRX was the best-selling Luxury SUV. Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive. Top Selling Models in Each Segment - Greater Pittsburgh Area New Retail Registrations - YTD 2012 thru June Cars Entry Sub Compact Sporty Compact Standard Mid Size Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Chevrolet Sonic Chevrolet Cruze Chevrolet Camaro Subaru Legacy Kia Soul Hyundai Elantra Hyundai Veloster Chevrolet Malibu Hyundai Accent Honda Civic Ford Mustang Hyundai Sonata Nissan Versa Subaru Impreza Dodge Challenger Honda Accord Ford Fiesta Ford Focus Scion tc Toyota Camry Large Mid Size Near Luxury Luxury Sports Car Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Buick LaCrosse Cadillac CTS BMW 5-Series Chevrolet Corvette Chevrolet Impala BMW 3-Series Mercedes E-Class Mazda MX Ford Taurus Mercedes C-Class Lincoln MKS Porsche Dodge Charger Lincoln MKZ Lexus GS Nissan 370Z Nissan Maxima Infiniti G Audi A BMW Z Light Trucks Compact Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Van Full Size Van Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Toyota Tacoma Ford F-Series Dodge Caravan Ford E-Series Ford Ranger Chevrolet Silverado Chrysler T & C Chevrolet Express Nissan Frontier Dodge Ram Honda Odyssey Ford Transit Connect Chevrolet Colorado GMC Sierra Toyota Sienna GMC Savana Honda Ridgeline Toyota Tundra Kia Sedona Nissan NV Compact SUV Mid Size/Crossover SUV Full Size SUV Luxury SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Honda CRV Kia Sorento Ford Explorer Cadillac SRX Chevrolet Equinox Jeep Grand Cherokee Chevrolet Traverse Lexus RX Ford Escape Subaru Forester GMC Acadia Acura MDX Toyota RAV Honda Pilot Buick Enclave BMW X Nissan Rogue Hyundai Santa Fe Chevrolet Tahoe Mercedes ML-Class

10 Page 10 Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook SEGMENT CLOSE-UP: SMALL CARS Chevrolet Leads in Area Small Car Market Cruze is best-seller in segment, followed by Elantra and Civic Brand Results - Two Year Perspective % change in area new retail small car registrations for top 15 selling brands YTD 12 thru June vs, YTD 2010 (sorted by YTD 12) Model Sales Leaders Top 10 selling small cars in area new retail market YTD 2012 thru June Make New registrations YTD 10 thru June New registrations YTD 12 thru June % change YTD 12 vs. YTD 10 Chevrolet % Hyundai % Honda % Kia % Toyota % Ford % Subaru % Volkswagen % Nissan % Mazda % Suzuki % Buick Fiat Mini % Dodge % Others 32% Volkswagen Jetta 4% Toyota Prius 4% Toyota Corolla/ Matrix 5% Kia Soul 6% Chevrolet Cruze 11% Ford Focus 7% Chevrolet Sonic 6% Hyundai Elantra 9% Honda Civic 9% Subaru Impreza 7% Brand Sales Performance - Area market vs. U.S. Brand market share in Pittsburgh Area and U.S. YTD 2012 thru June Shown from left to right based on area share Market Share (%) 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Chevrolet Hyundai Honda Kia Toyota Ford Subaru Volkswagen Nissan Mazda Area 17.5% 12.6% 11.2% 10.3% 9.5% 8.5% 6.9% 5.9% 4.4% 3.9% U.S. 10.2% 9.2% 14.0% 8.8% 17.9% 9.3% 3.7% 7.7% 6.9% 4.2% Note: Small cars includes vehicles in the Entry and Sub Compact segments.

11 Covering Second Quarter 2012 Page 11 COUNTY SCOREBOARD Four County Markets Up More than 10% in First Half of 12 Allegheny County up slightly The tables on this page provide a thorough summary of each of the Pittsburgh Area s 11 county new retail light vehicle markets. The unique county-level information provides a valuable perspective on local market performance, and a barometer to evaluate the performance of your dealership. Part 1 below shows registration data and light truck market share during the first six months of 2011 and Part 2 presents data for Domestic brands, and the top 10 selling car and light truck brands in the Pittsburgh Area. The top three ranked counties in each category are shaded. Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive. COUNTY BY COUNTY - PART 1 YTD thru June Percent Change Unit Change Light Truck Market Share (%) YTD 2011 to YTD 2012 YTD 2011 to YTD 2012 YTD 2011 YTD 2012 Change '11 to '12 Allegheny 29,540 29, % Armstrong 1,543 1, % Beaver 3,659 3, % Butler 4,992 5, % Cambria 2,510 2, % Fayette 3,196 3, % Greene 919 1, % Indiana 1,406 1, % Lawrence 1,762 1, % Washington 5,845 6, % Westmoreland 9,733 10, % COUNTY BY COUNTY - PART 2 Market Share Summary-YTD 2012 thru June Domestic Brands Top Ten Selling Brands in Area-YTD '12 thru June YTD 2011 YTD 2012 Change '11 to '12 Chevrolet Ford Honda Toyota/ Scion Hyundai Kia Nissan Jeep Subaru Dodge Allegheny Armstrong Beaver Butler Cambria Fayette Greene Indiana Lawrence Washington Westmoreland Percent Change in New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Greene Indiana Fayette Cambria Westm. Lawrence Armstrong Wash. Butler Beaver Allegheny

12 Page 12 PITTSBURGH AREA MARKET VERSUS U.S. Area Market Up 5.1% So Far This Year U.S. market improved 9.9% in first half of 2012 vs. year earlier Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook Change in registrations % change in registrations YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011 Car Market Share Car share of industry retail light vehicle registrations - YTD 2012 thru June 0 0 Area Market U.S. Market 5.1% 9.9% 48.6% 51.4% Domestic Brand Market Share Domestic brand share of industry retail light vehicle 45.7% 40.3% registrations - YTD 2012 thru June 0 Top Selling Retail Brands Top selling light vehicle brands and market share - YTD '12 thru June First Chevrolet 13.7% Toyota/Scion 13.4% Second Ford 12.5% Ford 13.2% Third Honda 9.2% Chevrolet 11.0% Fourth Toyota/Scion 8.9% Honda 10.6% Fifth Hyundai 6.6% Nissan 6.8% Sixth Kia 6.4% Hyundai 5.4% Seventh Nissan 5.7% Dodge 4.5% Eighth Jeep 5.6% Kia 4.4% Ninth Dodge (incl. Ram) 5.1% Jeep 3.5% Tenth Subaru 5.1% Volkswagen 3.0% Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook Distributed as a Special Report to Members by the Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE CAMERON JONES, President Northland Ford, Zelienople DENNIS BAGLIER, Vice President Baglier Buick GMC Mazda, Butler JEFF SMAIL, Secretary Smail Auto Group, Greensburg PAUL SCHIMIZZI, Treasurer Hillview Motors, Grennsburg MARK SMAIL, Past President Smail Auto Group, Greensburg GREATER PITTSBURGH AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION BOARD OF DIRECTORS DIRECTORS MARK BAER Budd Baer Inc., Washington DAN BIONDI Biondi Motor Company, Monroeville RON DAKAN North Star Chevrolet, Moon Township DEBBIE FLAHERTY Day Automotive, Monroeville CATHERINE GLASGOW Butler County Ford, Butler TOM LaFRANKIE Benson Lincoln, Pittsburgh MIKE McWILLIAMS Pittsburgh East Nissan, Pittsburgh TOM ROHRICH Rohrich Cadillac, Pittsburgh CLARENCE B. SMAIL - NADA Director Smail Auto Group, Greensburg