Recent Trends in Automobile Environmental Energy Policies

Transcription

1 Recent Trends in Automobile Environmental Energy Policies March 18, 2009 Michiko Watanabe Automobile Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

2 Table of Contents t 1. Present Situations of Auto Markets, etc. 2. Resource Price Surge and Rising CO2 Levels 3. Seeking International Discussions on Global Environmental Issues ~ Proposals for sectoral approach by the road transport sector ~ 4NextGeneration 4. Next-Generation Vehicle and Fuel Initiatives and its Development 1

3 1. Present Situations of Auto Markets, etc. 2

4 Transition of Auto Sales (Rapid Growth of Newly Emerging Forces) (millions) Dominance of Japan-US-EU triad until the 1980s. (Japan-US-EU : Other = 9 : 1) Shift to quadripartite structure with growth of newly emerging forces, e.g. China and ASEAN4 (Japan-US-EU : New Forces = 2:1) % 1986 Others 3,118,616 Japan 8% 5,707,814, 14% 40 mil cars Europe 12,878,972 32% (millions) Japan-US-EU 90% North America 18,095,258 46% New Forces 30% 2006 Japan-US-EU 70% Others North America 20,547,999 19,903,115, 33% 31% 64 mil cars Japan, 5,739, % Europe 17,032,171 27% 24 million more cars in the last 20 years Where has the increase occurred? Emerging markets kt Japan Europe N. America -1,000 China Russia India ASEAN4 Spain Brazil Mexico Korea Germany USA Japan Switzerland Norway Netherlands 3

5 Sharp Rise in Automobile Production in Asia China s growth is prominent, and India has followed since 2003 Changes in automobile production in major Asian countries (millions) China Korea India Thailand (year) Source: Motor Industry in Japan (JAMA) 4

6 Global Auto Market Faces Downturn US financial crises caused rapid decline in auto sales in the US markets. Market decline started in Spain at the beginning of 2008, and spread to Germany, UK and France in the middle of the year. As a whole, Europe has continuously declined since the middle of the year. In Asia, China and India decline started in summer, 2008, resulting in decreases in global auto sales Quantity 台数 Year-on-year 対前年同月比 5.0% (10,000) Sales in North American markets (10,000) Sales in European markets % -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% 欧州 Europe ( 台数 (quantity) ) 欧州 Europe ( 対前年同月比 (year-on-year)) 50.0% % 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% (10,000) (Source)Based on data from Autodata Corp. in the US Sales in Asian markets 中国 China ( 台数 (quantity) ) インド India ((quantity) 台数 ) 中国 China ( 対前年同月比 (year-on-year) ) インド India ((year-on-year) 対前年同月比 ) (month/year) 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 2007 年 2008 年 (month/year) (Source) Based on data from Association Auxiliaire de l Automobile from website of ACEA. Russia and Turkey are not included. Germany ドイツ ( 台数 (quantity) ) France フランス ((quantity) 台数 ) Italy イタリア (quantity) ( 台数 ) Sales in major European markets UK 英国 (quantity) ( 台数 ) (10,000) Spain スペイン (quantity) ( 台数 ) 60 Germany ドイツ ( 対前年同月比 (year-on-year) ) 50.0% 50 France フランス ((year-on-year) 対前年同月比 ) 40.0% Italy イタリア (year-on-year) ( 対前年同月比 ) UK 英国 (year-on-year) ( 対前年同月比 ) 30.0% 40 Spain スペイン (year-on-year) ( 対前年同月比 ) 20.0% 10.0% % -10.0% % % -40.0% % (month) (month/year) 2007 年 2008 年 (Source) Based on FOURIN s Monthly Report on the Global Automotive Industry (Source) Based on FOURIN s Monthly Report on the Global Automotive Industry 5

7 2. Resource Price Surge and Rising CO2 Levels 6

8 Structural Changes in International Energy Markets While Oil prices reached $138.54/barrel last June, recently change in them is $40~50/barrel. But, oil prices are higher than in the past [Long-term changes in oil prices and structural changes in international oil markets] Sep Iran-Iraq War Arabian Light price (unit: $/barrel) $ Highest price during 2nd oil crisis: $11.65/barrel Highest price during 2nd oil crisis: $34/barrel Interim Government of Iran Oil price as of June 2008: $138.54/barrel (all-time high) Terrorist attacks in the U.S. Highest price during Gulf War: $32.49/barrel Oct th Arab-Israeli War Mar US-led attacks on Iraq Iraqi invasion of Kuwait Stabilized period $1~2/barrel 1st structural change Counteraction to oil crisis Stabilized period $13~19/barrel 2nd structural change Structural tight demand 7

9 Worldwide CO2 Emissions and Projected Future Levels Drastic global reduction of CO2 emissions is essential. The road transport sector produces about 20% of CO2 emissions, so it should make efforts to reduce this major source of emissions. Developed countries need to take the initiative in emissions reduction, but under the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, there is a growing international i expectation that developing countries should also take measures to reduce CO2 emissions. i Percentage of Global CO2 Emissions by Sector (2004) Buildings Other 7% Electrical l Transport equipment Private 13% 20% Chemicals 3% 26.2 billion Paper and pulp 2% Industry tons of CO 2 20% Non-ferrous metals 1% Cement 3% Steel 6% Electric Power 40% Source: International Energy Agency CO 2 emissions (carbon equivalent: 1 billion tons) Projected future CO2 emissions 開発途上国 10 Developing countries 5 0 Developed 先進国 countries (Year) Source: Kainuma, et al., 2002: Climate Policy Assessment, Springer, p. 64 8

10 3. Seeking International Discussions on Global Environmental Issues ~Proposals for sectoral approach by the road transport sector~ 9

11 CO2 Emissions Increase Pattern in Road Transport Sector Economic growth in a developing country is always accompanied by motorization. In developing countries, CO2 emissions reduction is also the key to sustainable future economic growth Passenger Travel and GDP by Region: Source: WBCSD Mobility 2001 Economic growth Pa assenger- -km per Capita India North America Western Europe Pacific OECD (Japan, Australia) China GDP per capita, US$ Motorization Increase in number of vehicles and travel distances Increase in CO2 emissions 10

12 The Principle of Japan s Proposal Economic growth in a developing country is always accompanied by motorization (increase in number of vehicles and travel distances), which causes an increase in CO2 emissions. For this reason, CO2 emissions reduction in the road transport sector is the key to sustainable economic growth. Economic growth Motorization Increase in number of vehicles and travel distances Increase in CO2 emissions The basic principle of Japan s proposal is Achieving Compatibility between Environmental Protection and Economic Growth. It is important to make efforts to enhance sustainable mobility by minimizing automobiles negative impacts on the environment, such as energy consumption and CO2 emissions, while increasing the convenience of automobiles. Such efforts to conserve energy and reduce CO2 emissions are two sides of the same coin. Maximum Convenience of automobiles Negative impacts on the environment Minimum 11

13 Integrated Approach is Required for CO2 Emissions Reduction Improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles alone is not enough to conserve energy and reduce CO2 emissions in the road transport sector. It is essential to implement an integrated approach, including the development of alternative fuels (e.g. biofuels), government-led improvements in transportation infrastructures and effective use of vehicles, while considering compatibility with economical growth. Collaboration of all stakeholders who make their best efforts within their responsibility is indispensable. Automakers/ Government (fuel efficiency standards, incentive, etc.) Government (ITS, upgrading road infrastructures, minimizing on-street parking, etc.) Improvement in Fuel Efficiency i Improvement in Traffic Flow Diversification of Automotive ti Fuels Effective Utilization of Motor Vehicles Government/ Fuel suppliers/ Automakers (Biofuel, etc.) Fleet operators/ Vehicle users/ Government (Eco-driving, car sharing, efficient truck transport, modal shifts to cargo trains, etc.) 12

14 Results of Integrated Efforts CO2 emissions in the road transport sector in Japan have been on the decrease in the 21st century. CO 2 Emissions in Japan s Transport Sector x 1 million tons ) Greater vehicle fuel efficiency 12 2) Improved traffic flow ) More efficient use of motor vehicles (ecodriving, more efficient goods distribution), use of alternative fuels Source: Ministry of the Environment (Japan) 13

15 Overview of New Fuel Efficiency Standard Target year is set for 2015, based on performance in Applicable to passenger vehicles, microbuses, small freight vehicles. Average fuel consumption is set by Top Runner Approach Top Runner Approach:By target year, average fuel consumption must be higher than the best fuel efficiency in the base year. Fuel efficiency improvement rate in relation to performance in 2004 Type of vehicle Passenger vehicle 2004 Performance value 2015 Estimated value Fuel efficiency improvement rate compared to performance in (km/l) 16.8 (km/l) 23.5% Microbus 8.3 (km/l) 8.9 (km/l) 7.2% Small freight vehicle 13.5 (km/l) 15.2 (km/l) 12.6% Examples of types of vehicles *Values from JC08 mode Passenger vehicle Microbus Small truck Mini-van 14

16 Improvement in Fuel Efficiency Improved Engine Efficiency Gasoline Engine Engine performa ance Variable valve timing 4-valve DOHC EFI Direct injection Low friction Environmental performance Engine performa ance Diesel Engine Common rail (135MPa) Piezo injector Common rail (180MPa) DPNR Environmental performance Improved Aerodynamics Improved body configuration Reduced Vehicle Weight Expanded use of lightweight materials Improved body structure Improved dd Drive System Engine performa ance Integrated vehicle control Transmission control 6AT Flex lockup 8AT DCT CVT Environmental performance Reduced Rolling Resistance Low rolling-resistance tires Other Electrical power steering Idling prevention Hybridization 15

17 Diversification of Automotive Fuels Vehicle CO 2 emission volumes differ on a per-liter basis depending on the fossil fuel used. Biofuels are essentially carbon neutral. 1.2 CO 2 Emissions Coefficients, by Fuel Type (CO 2 emissions from gasoline = 1.0) Gasoline Diesel LPG Ethanol Biodiesel fuel Source: JHFC Combined Efficiency Study Committee 16

18 Improvement in Traffic Flow VICS (Vehicle Information and Communication System) providing real-time road traffic information and route guidance ETC (Electronic Toll Collection System) enabling road-toll payment without stopping at tollgates 17

19 Effective Utilization of Motor Vehicles In addition to reducing CO 2 emissions, ecodriving practices by truck fleet operators and their drivers also help reduce operating costs. The adoption of ecodriving by passenger car drivers must now be vigorously promoted. Ten Tips for Digital tachograph (Fleet management) Fuel-efficiency gauge Fuel-Conserving Ecodriving (as promoted in Japan) 1) Accelerate gently. 2) Keep your speed constant. 3) Slow down by decelerating. 4) Limit the use of your air conditioner. 5) Don t idle your engine. 6) Don t warm up your engine before starting off. 7) Know your itinerary. 8) Check your tire pressure regularly. 9) Reduce your load. 10) Respect parking regulations. 18

20 Sectoral Approach in the Road Transport Sector 1) Share the feasible action menu based on the best practices in the road transport sector of each country. 2) Identify the status quo (status of implementation) of each country. 3) Estimate the potential CO2 reduction levels of each country. 4) Implement effective measures suitable for the circumstances and capabilities of each country, through the utmost efforts of the countries. Developing countries Japan Improvement in Diversification of Fuel Efficiency Automotive Fuels Sharing Best Practices India Effective Improvement Utilization of in Traffic Flow Motor Vehicles N. America China Europe 19

21 Statistical data related to improvement of traffic flow and promotion of efficient use <Improvement of traffic flow> Improvement mitigation of Increase of Average travel measures for CO2 reduction traffic jams velocity of vehicles on road traffic flow Average travel velocity of vehicles on road (km/h) Statistical data is required. <Efficient use> Improvement of Reduction of total CO2 reduction transport efficiency travel distance Transport efficiency = Traffic volume (passengers/vehicles, tons/vehicles) (passengers-km, tons-km) / Run volume (vehicles-km) Statistical data is required. 20

22 Data Compilation Statuses of Countries Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,Inc21

23 Importance of Statistical data The quantification of energy saving and CO2 reduction in the road transport sector helps promote more effective measures. Important Indicators for energy saving & CO2 reduction 1.Improvement of traffic flow ; Average travel velocity of vehicles on road (km/h) 2.Effective Utilization of Motor Vehicles; Transport efficiency (passengers/vehicles, tons/vehicles) The road transport sector s energy conservation and CO2 reduction activities can be expanded on a world scale by sharing the methods of data investigation and calculation among countries. 22

24 4. Next-Generation Vehicle and Fuel Initiatives and their Development 23

25 Points of the Environmental Energy Strategy on Vehicles Based on three key phrases (cross-industry, cross-ministry and agency, and benchmark sharing), realizing three types of innovation (automobile, fuel and infrastructure) and solving three problems (energy security, environmental protection and competitiveness) Automobile Fuel Infrastructure % oil dependence in transport Integrated combination 30% improvement in energy efficiency Sharing every 5 to 10 yearbenchmark between a broad range of related industries and government agencies Synchronizing the management strategy with political l strategies. t Accelerating the innovation effectively by efficient 2030 competition 24

26 The Next-Generation Vehicle and Fuel Initiatives (1) The automotive industry, oil industry and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry have established a comprehensive strategy. Five Strategies to Achieve: Three Innovations (1) Batteries (2) () Hydrogen/fuel cells Automobile (3) Clean diesel (4) () Biofuels Fuel (5) World s friendliest motorized society Infrastructure A cutting-edge vision to pursue energy security, environmental protection and competitiveness simultaneously 25

27 The Next-Generation Vehicle and Fuel Initiatives (2) (1) Battery <Electric vehicles> <Plug-in hybrid vehicles> FHI R1e Mitsubishi i-miev (2) Hydrogen/fuel cell Basic technology common to future automobile energy Technology development project for next- generation batteries The issues are battery performance and cost. The cleanest energy of all in the long run The issues are lighter hydrogen tanks and longer life fuel cells. Hydrogen cars are important as a step to a fuel cell and hydrogen society. <Hd <Hydrogen vehicle> hil> <Fuel-cell llvehicle> hil> Mazda RX-8 Honda FCX (3) Clean diesel Better fuel efficiency than gasoline vehicles by about 20%. Advantages of the world s cleanest diesel oil, produced in Japan, can be used. The issue is to develop low-cost exhaust gas purification technology. An important means to bridge GTL and various other fuels. <Clean diesel passenger car> Nissan X-TRAIL (4) Biofuel Effective for reducing CO2 emissions as an alternative fuel to petroleum, Assessing the optimum amount of use is important. Biotechnology using cellulose, uncompetitive with food, is to be developed. (5) World s friendliest motorized society Establishment of a next-generation, congestion-free motorized society using IT. 26

28 1 Battery Current Status [Electric vehicle (EV) Eliica] Zero CO2 emission Short mileage 0.2 billion yen per EV [The first PRIUS] Placed on the market in /3 CO2 emission Improvem ment of battery performance and decline in cost [Compact EV] Placed on the market in km mileage per one charge Target price is 3 million yen [High performance HV] Placed on the market in 2007 Target CO2 emission is 1/2 3 time s battery perform mance, 1/5 co ost [More efficient compact EV] 200 km mileage per one charge Target price is 2 million yen [Plug-in HV] Target to place on the market in around 2015 Rechargeable HV 1/3 CO2 emission 2 time s battery perform mance, 1/4 co ost [Standard-sized EV] 500 km mileage per one charge Target price is 3 million yen Action Program Start of R&D project for next-generation vehicle batteries Establishment of the system for battery-charger stands and to secure safety 27

29 2Hydrogen/fuel cell vehicle Current Status [The first FCX] [fuel cell vehicle] [Next-generation fuel cell vehicle] Zero CO2 emission Started lease sales in 2002 (10 million yen per year) Short mileage (300 km) Actual seating capacity is 2 Weight savi ing of hydrogen tank Extension of fuel cell li ife Limited sale in km mileage Seating capacity is 4 [Hydrogen vehicle] Started lease sales in 2006 (5 million yen per year) Can run on gasoline as well 1.5 times fuel cell life, 1/5 cost Further lower price 1.5 times fuel cell life, 1/4 cost [Next-next-generation fuel cell vehicle] Further lower price Action Program Enhancement of R&D for fuel cells Establishment of hydrogen infrastructure 28

30 3 Clean diesel Current Status [Old-generation diesel] 3/4 CO2 emission Problem with emission performance Sal the es of the cleane world est gas oil in Estab gas p blishment of low purification tech w-cost exhausthnology [Clean diesel vehicle] hil] Placed on the market in 2010 Emission performance as high as gasoline vehicle 3/4 CO2 emission Evolution for diesel hybrid Biodiesel, GTL, etc. are acceptable Action Program Establishing the clean diesel popularization and promotion strategy 29

31 4Biofuel Current Status [Grain-type bio-ethanol] (corn, sugarcane) [Biodiesel] Quality improvemen t [Biogasoline] [Second-generation biodiesel] Sol lution of compet tition with food d, cos st reduction [Cellulosic bio-ethanol] (straw, stubs and branches after logging) Targeted production cost 2015: 100/lit. (Remaining materials of lumber mill, straw, etc.) [Biomass Nippon] 40/lit. [Case of technological innovation] (Energy recovery 35%) 2020: 100/lit. (Remaining materials in the forests, resource farm products, etc.) [Biomass Nippon] 40/lit. [Case of technological innovation] (Energy recovery 35%) Action Program Establishment s s e of the biofuel technology ogy innovation o plan Establishment of the system for quality and fair tax collection 30

32 5World s Friendliest Motorized Society Current status: t Promotion of ITS as an energy strategy t Effects of traffic flow control on energy conservation Fuel efficiency improves by about 1% as the average speed increases by 1km/h. (Average speed in cities Tokyo: 18.8km/h, Paris: 26km/h, London: 30km/h) Future possibility of traffic flow control using IT ETC Eti 導入による td CO2 排出削減量試算結果 (1) Toll gates Estimated reduction in CO2 emissions i from (2) Uphill slopes/ tunnels (t-co2/year) 2/ 年 ) Automation of payment 7,000 6,000 5,000 introduction of ETC 3,500(t-CO2/ Reduction of 3,500 年 ) (t-co2/year) 減少 (2) Uphill slopes/ tunnels Warning for drivers not to slow down We ll stay in the cruising lane. (Road condition sensor) The passing lane is congested. (Information transmission antenna) 4,000 3,000 The passing lane is becoming congested. The cruising lane is not congested. ETC (3) Junctures Prohibition of unnecessary slowdown, overtaking and lane changing Automatic driving 2,000 1,000 0 ETC ETC utilization 利用率 0% ratio: 0% ETC ETC utilization 利用率 60% ratio: 60% (New traffic system of driverless automatic driving in ranks by using the latest ITS technology that Toyota demonstrated at the Exposition of Global Harmony) Road to vehicle communication to give information to drivers (4) Intersections Change of signal patterns depending on the traffic density Signal control (Counter congestion by providing information on uphill slopes that are the causes of traffic congestion on expressways) Controller Controller Controller Controller 31

33 Conclusion Improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles alone is not enough to conserve energy and reduce CO2 emissions in the road transport sector. It is essential to implement an integrated approach, including the development of alternative fuels (e.g. biofuels), government-led improvements in transportation infrastructures and effective use of vehicles, while considering compatibility with economical growth. Understand the challenges and efforts of each country through international ti exchange, and share the best practices. 32