GO Electrification Study

Transcription

1 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

2 GO ELECTRIFICATION STUDY Final Reprt December 2010 Prepared fr: Prepared by: 20 Bay Street, Suite 901 Trnt ON M5J 2N8 In Assciatin with:

3 FINAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION PLANNING CONTEXT Places t Grw The Big Mve GO METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW Study Principles Study Stages Prgressin f Optins Multiple Categry Evaluatin Framewrk STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND COMMUNICATIONS Intrductin Stakehlder Engagement Strategy Guiding Principles fr Stakehlder Engagement Overview f Engagement Methdlgy Stakehlder Engagement Highlights t Date Highlights f Stakehlder Feedback BASELINING/REFERENCE CASE DEVELOPMENT Reference Case fr the Electrificatin Study ROLLING STOCK TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OPERATING PLAN FOR THE ELECTRIFICATION STUDY POWER SUPPLY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF THE ELECTRIFICATION SYSTEM PRE SCREENING AND HIGH LEVEL EVALUATION Pre Screening High Level Evaluatin THE SIX SHORT LISTED OPTIONS Optin 1 Gergetwn Crridr Optin 2 Lakeshre East Crridr Optin 3 Gergetwn and Lakeshre Crridrs i GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

4 11.4. Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre and Miltn Crridrs Optin 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn and Barrie Crridrs Optin 18 Entire Netwrk MULTIPLE CATEGORY EVALUATION FINDINGS & CONCLUSIONS Envirnment and Health User Benefits/Quality f Life Scial and Cmmunity Ecnmic Financial Deliverability Risk and Uncertainties ELECTRIFICATION OPTIONS IMPLEMENTATION Intrductin Key Assumptins Implementatin Schedule Findings and Cnclusins Summary Indicative Implementatin Schedule FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS BEYOND THE REFERENCE CASE Level f Service Unin Statin and Netwrk wide Imprvements Electric Multiple Units (EMUs) Transit Fares ii GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

5 FIGURES Figure 1: Stages f the Electrificatin Study... 5 Figure 2: Evaluatin f Optins... 6 Figure 3: Prgressin f Lng List t Shrt List f Optins... 8 Figure 4: Reference Case Schematic Netwrk Shwing Ownership, Number f Tracks and Lcatin f Facilities Figure 5: Reference Case Netwrk Schematic Shwing Statins and Crridr Extensins Figure 6: GO Diesel Lcmtive Hauled Train (MP40PH 3C) t be cnverted t Tier Figure 7: Example f an Electric Lcmtive Figure 8: Example f an Electric Multiple Unit train Figure 9: Example f a Dual Mde Lcmtive Figure 10: Typical 2x25 kv System Auttransfrmer Statin Figure 11: Typical 2x25 kv System Substatin Figure 12: Typical Tw Track 2x25 kv OCS and Feeder System with Side Ple Cnstructin Figure 13: Typical Multi Track 2x25 kv OCS and Feeder System with Prtal Cnstructin Figure 14: Reference Case Figure 15: Optin 1 Gergetwn frm Unin t Kitchener (including the ARL) Figure 16: Optin 2 Lakeshre East & West frm Bwmanville t Hamiltn James Figure 17: Optin 3 Gergetwn and Lakeshre Figure 18: Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre and Miltn Figure 19: Optin15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn and Barrie Figure 20: Optin 18 The entire GO Transit netwrk Figure 21: Current Annual GHG Emissins in GTHA Figure 22: Ttal User Jurney Time Savings by Crridr ($m 2010 Present Values) Figure 23: Average Jurney Time Savings per Passenger Figure 24: Sensitivity and Scenari Tests Range f BCRs Figure 25: GO Transit Rail Netwrk Crridr Ownership map Figure 26: Netwrk schematic shwing Crridr sectins iii GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

6 TABLES Table 1: Multiple Categry Evaluatin and Sub Categries Cnsidered... 9 Table 2: Stakehlder Outreach and Engagement Methds The fllwing details are taken frm the descriptin f the Reference Case service cncept as supplied by Metrlinx Table 3: Reference Case Service Levels Table 3: Reference Case Service Levels Table 4: Jurney Time Savings Table 5: Lcatin f Tractin Pwer Substatins Table 6: Key Statistics fr Optin 1 Gergetwn Crridr Table 7: Key Statistics fr Optin 2 Lakeshre Crridr Table 8: Key Statistics fr Optin 3 Gergetwn and Lakeshre Table 9: Key Statistics fr Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre and Miltn Table 10: Key Statistics fr Optin 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn and Barrie Crridrs. 48 Table 11: Key Statistics fr Optin 18 Entire Netwrk Table 12: Detailed 30 Year Life Cycle Transprtatin Appraisal f Electric Lcmtive Trains (All Figures in $m Discunted at 5% p.a. t 2010 Present Values) Table 13: Ttal Incremental Infrastructure Capital Csts by Optin ($m 2010 prices) Table 14: Ttal Incremental Rlling Stck Capital Csts by Optin ($m 2010 prices) Table 15: Ttal Capital Cst Estimate Range (Infrastructure and Rlling Stck) Table 16: Annual Operating and Maintenance Cst Savings by Optin ($m 2010 prices) Table 17: Multiple Categry Evaluatin Summary Table iv GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

7 APPENDICES Appendix 1: High Level Decisin Making Framewrk Appendix 2: Stakehlder Engagement and Cmmunicatins Appendix 3: Baseline/Reference Case Appendix 4: Rlling Stck Technlgy Assessment Appendix 5: Operating Plan fr the Reference Case Appendix 6: Electrificatin Systems Technlgy Assessment Appendix 7: Cnceptual Design f Electrificatin System Appendix 8: Multiple Categry Evaluatin Input Appendix 8A: Apprach t Cst Benefit Analysis Appendix 8B: Incremental Capital Cst Estimates Appendix 8C: Incremental Operatins and Maintenance Cst Estimates Appendix 8D: Air Quality & Health Impacts Appendix 8E: Nise & Vibratin Impacts Appendix 8F: Natural Envirnment Impacts Appendix 8G: Scial/Cmmunity Impacts Appendix 8H: Ecnmic Impacts Appendix 8I: Ppulatin and Cmmunity Use Analysis Appendix 8J: Risk Assessment Appendix 9: Multiple Categry Evaluatin Findings and Cnclusins Appendix 10: Implementatin f Electrificatin Optins v GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

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9 CONTEXT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Metrlinx, thrugh its GO Transit perating divisin, perates a cmprehensive transprtatin system f bus and cmmuter rail lines in the Greater Trnt and Hamiltn Area (GTHA). The system includes the GO Transit rail netwrk, which is an essential part f Metrlinx s service t the area cmmuters. GO Transit currently prvides cmmuter rail service n seven crridrs in the GTHA, using cnventinal diesel lcmtives and nn pwered bi level caches in push pull cnfiguratin. In late 2008, Metrlinx published a Reginal Transprtatin Plan The Big Mve a multimdal visin fr reginal transprtatin t strengthen the ecnmic, scial and envirnmental sustainability f the GTHA. The Big Mve sets ut a fast, frequent and expanded reginal rapid transit netwrk as a key element f the plan. The plan includes establishing Express Rail and Reginal Rail services at frequencies and speeds that culd ptentially be enhanced by system electrificatin. GO 2020 is GO Transit s strategic plan, which sets ut a strategy fr meeting the GTHA s interreginal transprtatin needs as identified in The Big Mve. GO 2020 envisins mre frequent peak perid and tw way all day rail service, which culd ptentially be prvided by an electrified system. ELECTRIFICATION STUDY In January 2010, Metrlinx initiated a study f the electrificatin f the entire GO Transit rail system as a future alternative t diesel trains nw in service. The verriding purpse f the Electrificatin Study is t prvide Metrlinx s Bard f Directrs with the infrmatin needed t decide hw GO Transit trains will be pwered in the future using electricity, enhanced diesel technlgy r ther means. STUDY SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY The study was guided by the Electrificatin Study Terms f Reference, which were develped with advice frm a multi stakehlder Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee and apprved by the Metrlinx Bard. It cnsidered the entire GO Transit rail netwrk all seven crridrs as well as the future Airprt Rail Link (ARL) between Unin Statin and Pearsn Internatinal Airprt. The study used expanded and enhanced GO Transit rail netwrk frm the netwrk f tday as a basis f cmparisn. This Reference Case assumed that additinal tracks and sme f GO s prpsed line extensins (t St. Catharines, Kitchener, Allandale, Blmingtn Rad, and Bwmanville) will be cnstructed in the cming years, resulting in increased service and train vlumes. The Reference Case als assumed that Tier 4 Diesel MP40 rlling stck will be in peratin as GO Transit has cmmitted t cnvert t Tier 4 emissin standards. In 2015, Tier 4 emissins cmpliancy will be mandated fr all new and remanufactured lcmtives in the United States. This is therefre the rlling stck against which ther technlgies were cmpared in the study. The study methdlgy included: Develpment f the perating plan fr the Reference Case; A cmprehensive rlling stck technlgy assessment, which examined the technlgies electric, diesel and alternative fuel surces that culd be used t prvide future GO Transit and ARL service; Cnsideratin f pwer supply and distributin ptins verhead wires, third rail, and thers t deliver electricity t a ptential future electrified rail service; vii GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

10 Identificatin and evaluatin f netwrk ptins fr electrifying part r all f the GO Transit rail netwrk and ARL; Detailed assessment f a shrt list f netwrk ptins; and Develpment f findings and cnclusins. The study als included a cmprehensive stakehlder engagement and cmmunicatins prgram t reach ut t and cnsult with stakehlders thrughut the ne year study prcess. ROLLING STOCK TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Rlling stck technlgies examined as part f the cmprehensive assessment generally fell int fur brad categries: Diesel: including Diesel Lcmtives and Diesel Multiple Units; Electric: including Electric Lcmtives and Electric Multiple Units; Dual Mde: hybrid technlgies that include bth an n bard diesel engine, as well as capability t perate in electric prpulsin mde when in electrified territry; and Alternative Rlling Stck Technlgies and Fuels: including Alternative Lcmtive Fuels, Hybrid Drive Trains, Hydrgen Fuel Cell Trains, Maglev, and ther New System Cncepts. As a result f the rlling stck technlgy assessment, which lked at technical, cmmercial and cmpatibility criteria, fur technlgies were selected fr mre detailed study: Diesel Lcmtives with bi level caches; Electric Lcmtives with bi level caches; Electric Multiple Units with bi level caches; and Dual Mde Lcmtives with bi level caches. Fr the Airprt Rail Link service, single level, self prpelled diesel pwered railcars knwn as diesel multiple units (DMU) in tw car trains were cmpared t single level electric multiple units (EMU) in tw car trains. POWER SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION OPTIONS Pwer supply and distributin technlgies reviewed as part f the study included three main types: Overhead Catenary: trains are pwered by verhead wires; Third Rail: trains are pwered via electrical infrastructure placed n the grund alngside r in between railway tracks (e.g. Trnt Transit Cmmissin subway); Alternative System Technlgies: trains are pwered using hydrgen fuel cell technlgy r frm batteries that stre energy. The cnclusin f the assessment, which lked at technical, cmmercial and cmpatibility criteria, is that the pwer supply ptin mst apprpriate fr the GO Transit rail netwrk and ARL is the use f an verhead catenary system. An auttransfrmer fed system perating at 2x25 kv AC electrificatin vltage and cmmercial frequency f 60 Hz was selected and used fr the develpment f the study s cnceptual design and cst estimates. viii GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

11 EVALUATION OF NETWORK OPTIONS The Electrificatin Study lked at where n the GO Transit rail netwrk the fur technlgies that emerged frm the rlling stck assessment Diesel Lcmtives, Electric Lcmtives, Electric Multiple Units, and Dual Mde Lcmtives culd be used in the future. It was assumed that Diesel Multiple Units wuld be cnverted t Electric Multiple Units n the ARL if the Gergetwn crridr is electrified. Frm ver 16,000 pssible netwrk ptins, the study team cncluded that 18 ptins merited further study. These ptins ranged frm electrifying ne line (Gergetwn r Lakeshre) t electrifying all crridrs t sme extent, using either Electric Lcmtives r Electric Multiple Units, pssibly supplemented with Dual Mde Lcmtives. These 18 netwrk ptins were evaluated at a high level t see hw they cmpare in terms f transprtatin efficiency, envirnmental and cst cnsideratins. Based n the results f the high level evaluatin, it was cncluded that electric lcmtives wuld be the technlgy taken frward fr detailed assessment against the Reference Case Tier 4 diesel lcmtives, and that six ptins wuld be carried frward fr mre detailed assessment in the final phase f the study: Optin 1 Electrificatin f the Air Rail Link (ARL) and Gergetwn; Optin 2 Partial electrificatin f Lakeshre (frm Bwmanville t Hamiltn James); Optin 3 Partial electrificatin f Lakeshre and electrificatin f ARL and Gergetwn; Optin 11 Partial electrificatin f Lakeshre and electrificatin f ARL, Gergetwn and Miltn; Optin 15 Partial Electrificatin f Lakeshre and electrificatin f ARL, Gergetwn, Miltn and Barrie; and Optin 18 Electrificatin f the entire netwrk. The electrificatin f the Lakeshre line wuld extend frm Bwmanville in the east t Hamiltn James in the west and excludes Hamiltn TH&B and St. Catharines due t the high cst f tunnel and bridge mdificatins and the limited number f trains frm/t St. Catharines. Fr the Airprt Rail Link service, single level Tier 4 diesel multiple units (DMU) in tw car cnsists wuld be cmpared t single level, electric multiple units (EMU). INFRASTRUCTURE AND ROLLING STOCK ELEMENTS The fllwing list summarizes the infrastructure and rlling stck elements f electrificatin: Pwer supply Tractin pwer substatins and cnnectin t grid Switching statins / auttransfrmer Statins Overhead catenary system Bridge replacement and rewrking Grunding within 250m f the nearest rail, as required, fr: Structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abve grund fuel tanks and ther utilities ix GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

12 Mdificatins t the track t ensure cmpatibility with electrificatin, including track bnding and grunding t limit induced vltages and maintain safety Mdificatins t the signal system t immunize against the effects f electrmagnetic interference Cntrl centre additinal equipment Rlling stck prcurement DETAILED ASSESSMENT: KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS Each f the six shrt listed ptins was cmpared and cntrasted against the Reference Case and each ther. Drawing n the Electrificatin Study Terms f Reference, the study team identified 6 key evaluatin categries t cmpare and cntrast the shrt listed netwrk ptins. These evaluatin categries and related cnsideratins included: Envirnment and Health: Cnsideratins greenhuse gas emissins; reginal and lcal air quality; electrmagnetic fields; nise and vibratin. User Benefits/Quality f Life: Cnsideratins jurney time savings; reliability Scial and Cmmunity: Cnsideratins impacts n residents and users f cmmunity, institutinal and recreatin facilities. Ecnmic: Cnsideratins cst effectiveness; emplyment effects; land use and prperty values. Financial: Cnsideratins capital and perating cst; revenues. Deliverability: Cnsideratins cnstructability, acceptability. Based n the multiple categry evaluatin, key findings and cnclusins f the Electrificatin Study include: ENVIRONMENT AND HEALTH Electric trains d nt emit Greenhuse Gases (GHG) frm the lcmtives, but rather at the surce f electricity generatin. Trains prpelled by electricity emit less GHG than diesel trains. By electrifying larger sectins f the GO Transit rail netwrk, greater GHG reductins can be achieved. Electrifying the entire netwrk wuld deliver a 94% reductin in GO Transit s future GHG emissins, althugh this reductin wuld nly be a small fractin (0.32%) f the verall regin s emissins. Electric trains d nt emit Critical Air Cntaminants (CAC) frm the lcmtives, but rather at the surce f electricity generatin. The mre the netwrk is electrified, the mre peple benefit frm the imprved air quality. Hwever, analysis f the cncentratins f air cntaminants such as particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), NO x and SO x with Tier 4 Diesel lcmtives shws that the impact f the Reference Case service levels wuld already be well belw the stringent Wrld Health Organizatin standards. As mre crridrs are electrified, the lcal air quality imprves, but the health benefit assciated with electrificatin is likely t be marginal. There are als reginal and lcal air quality imprvements due t electrificatin, but as GO Transit has already cmmitted t perating diesel lcmtives which are cmpliant with Tier 4 emissin standards in the medium term hrizn, the incremental impact f electrificatin, in the cntext f health, is relatively mdest. x GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

13 There are numerus and incnclusive epidemilgical studies n electrmagnetic fields (EMF) frm verhead pwer lines and OCS; there is n cnsistent relatinship between electrmagnetic fields and health issues. There is a slight reductin in nise and vibratin due t electric lcmtives being slightly quieter than diesel. Hwever, the differences in nise levels between diesel and electric lcmtive trains wuld nt generally be perceivable due t the nise levels f the caches which are cmmn t bth train sets. USER BENEFITS/QUALITY OF LIFE Due t faster acceleratin and deceleratin, jurney time savings can be achieved with electric lcmtives as cmpared t diesel lcmtives. Depending n the ptin, the average time saving per passenger trip frm electrificatin wuld be between 2.4 and 2.8 minutes. The greatest jurney time benefits are realized frm electrifying Lakeshre (due t mst ridership) fllwed by Gergetwn. The least benefits wuld result frm electrifying Richmnd Hill (due t line speeds and track curvature that restrict ptential transit time savings). Electric lcmtive trains are typically mre reliable than diesel lcmtive trains, but verall the reliability benefits t passengers are nt significant given that failures due t engine breakdwns are relatively infrequent. SOCIAL AND COMMUNITY The Gergetwn Crridr has the mst peple living clsest t the crridr and its electrificatin may prvide the greatest impacts and benefits althugh the benefits are mdest. Overhead catenaries, substatins and auttransfrmer statins are likely t result in negative visual impacts. The need fr grunding within 250m f the nearest rail, as required, fr structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abve grund fuel tanks and ther utilities, may negatively interfere with and impact adjacent prperties. ECONOMIC Jurney time savings translate t benefits t users and imprve the ecnmic cmpetitiveness f the regin. Electrifying the GO Transit Rail netwrk is expected t generate emplyment during cnstructin and in peratin which in turn increases the ecnmic utput f the regin. Due t faster jurney times and slightly imprved air quality, nise and vibratin, prperty prices alng the electrified rail crridr culd benefit frm a slight increase in value, althugh sme prperties immediately verlking the verhead catenary system may result in a decrease in value, depending n site specific cnditins. xi GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

14 FINANCIAL Capital Csts Electrificatin f any ptin wuld invlve a significant capital investment, with incremental capital cst estimates ranging frm abut $900 millin fr the electrificatin f the Gergetwn line nly (Optin 1) t ver $4 billin fr the electrificatin f the entire netwrk. Electrificatin f Lakeshre and Gergetwn tgether is ntably lwer than the sum f the individual parts because when bth are electrified, there are cst synergies. Operating and Maintenance Csts The cst f energy prvided by diesel fuel is greater than the cst f energy derived frm an electrical system, and cst f diesel fuel is expected t increase at a greater rate than electricity. There are significant uncertainties ver cst f electricity and diesel in the future. Electric Lcmtives are less expensive t maintain than diesel lcmtives. Annual perating and maintenance cst savings are estimated at abut $7 millin fr the electrificatin f the Gergetwn Crridr nly (Optin 1) and $53 millin fr the electrificatin f the entire netwrk (ptin 18), 2021 values with real inflatin. Revenue Faster acceleratin and deceleratin f electric trains reduce jurney times which attract additinal riders and generate increased farebx revenue. DELIVERABILITY Ownership Electrificatin wuld be easier t implement n GO Transit wned crridrs as these are expected t require fewer negtiatins. Electrificatin f freight crridrs wuld need t be negtiated with CN and CP. Bridge Replacements Eleven bridge replacements wuld be required t electrify the entire netwrk. Of these, three are needed n the Gergetwn crridr and fur are needed fr Lakeshre. Reference Case There is a need t cnsider the phasing and crdinatin f the reference case infrastructure required t deliver the increased service with the electrificatin wrk. OVERALL CONCLUSION There are transprtatin and ecnmic benefits t electrificatin. There are als small envirnmental, scial and cmmunity benefits. Health benefits are expected t be marginal. Electrificatin f any ptin wuld invlve a significant capital investment, but wuld result in sme peratins and maintenance cst savings. Of the ptins cnsidered, electrifying the Lakeshre crridr between Bwmanville and Hamiltn James (Optin 2) is the mst cst effective ptin in delivering these benefits, while the inclusin f the xii GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

15 Gergetwn (Optin 3) and Miltn crridrs (Optin 11) delivers higher levels f benefits withut significantly reducing the cst effectiveness f implementing thse ptins. The transprtatin Benefit Cst Rati (BCR) takes int accunt the mnetized benefits and csts ver the prject life cycle, and depends n a number f key assumptins. A wide range f sensitivity tests were cnducted n these assumptins, including infrastructure capital csts, rlling stck capital csts, perating and maintenance csts, energy cst inflatin, and ridership/demand frecasts. The results f the sensitivity analysis indicated that the BCR f each ptin was: relatively sensitive t the infrastructure capital csts, incremental O&M cst savings and energy cst inflatin assumptins; mderately sensitive t ridership/demand frecasts; and relatively insensitive t incremental rlling stck capital csts. The sensitivity tests als indicated that while each ptin s BCR culd vary widely depending n the varius assumptins, the relative perfrmance f each ptin still held: Optin 2 (Lakeshre) cnsistently emerged as the best perfrming ptin, with a BCR likely t be abve 1:1 and pssibly significantly higher; Optin 3 (Lakeshre and Gergetwn) and Optin 11 (Lakeshre, Gergetwn and Miltn) remained very similar in BCR terms relative t ne anther, with a fair chance f delivering a BCR higher than 1:1; Optins 1 and 18 did nt yield a BCR greater than ne under the current evaluatin framewrk and the range f sensitivities tested. Frm an implementatin perspective, there are advantages t integrating the electrificatin wrk with the Reference Case service level increases. If the electrificatin infrastructure wrk is implemented prir t the service level increases, there culd be savings in cnstructin schedule and cst. Mrever, the subsequent increase in service levels wuld ensure that the benefits f electrificatin accrue t the largest pssible number f riders. xiii GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

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17 1. INTRODUCTION The purpse f this reprt is t detail the Electrificatin Study methdlgy, evaluatin, findings and cnclusins. This reprt: Describes the planning cntext fr the Electrificatin Study. Prvides a cmprehensive verview f the study methdlgy, including: study principles, study stages, prgressin f ptins, and multiple categry evaluatin. Prvides a cmprehensive descriptin f the nging stakehlder engagement and cmmunicatins, including: strategy and methdlgy, highlights, and stakehlder feedback. Describes the study cnclusins at key milestnes, including: baselining/ Reference Case develpment, perating plan develpment, rlling stck technlgy assessment, pwer supply technlgy assessment, cnceptual design f electrificatin system, and pre screening and high level evaluatin. Describes the six ptins which underwent detailed assessment r multiple evaluatin. Describes the key findings and cnclusins frm the multiple categry evaluatin f the six ptins. 1 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

18 2. PLANNING CONTEXT The Electrificatin Study tk place within the cntext f a number f planning initiatives such as Places t Grw, The Big Mve, and GO These are described belw in sectins 2.1 t 2.3. Electrificatin is being cnsidered fr the cmmuter transit prvided n the GO Transit rail lines. In develping the evaluatin framewrk that guided the GO Electrificatin Study, the planning and strategic dcuments nted abve were cnsidered. Specifically, the dcumented visins, gals and bjectives guided the frmatin f the study bjectives 1, which were used in assessing the apprpriateness f electrificatin fr ne r mre f the seven GO Transit lines servicing the Greater Glden Hrseshe area. The planning dcuments were als the fundatin fr develping the Reference Case fr the study, which is described in Sectin 4 f this reprt Places t Grw In 2005 the Gvernment f Ontari passed the Places t Grw Act. The Places t Grw Act helps the Ontari gvernment strategically plan fr grwth. It gives the gvernment the authrity t designate any gegraphic regin f the prvince as a grwth plan area and develp grwth plans. Grwth plans identify where and hw develpment shuld ccur within a regin and help guide gvernment investments. In June 2006 the grwth plan fr the Greater Glden Hrseshe was released. The Greater Glden Hrseshe is ne f the mst imprtant regins in Canada and is amng the fastest grwing areas in Nrth America. The regin extends frm Niagara Falls t Peterbrugh. Currently hme t ver eight millin peple, the regin is expected t have anther 3.7 millin peple and 1.8 millin mre jbs by This 25 year grwth plan will guide urban develpment in the Greater Glden Hrseshe and prvides a framewrk fr the gvernment t crdinate planning and decisin making fr lngterm grwth and infrastructure develpment. The plan recgnizes that while grwth can be gd fr ur ecnmy, urban sprawl has an adverse effect n the ecnmy, ur health, the envirnment and quality f life. A key element f the plan is the recgnitin that mre peple must spend mre time cmmuting t wrk resulting in mre vehicles cntributing t gridlck, delays in the mvement f gds and elevated pllutin levels. The Places t Grw plan envisins further intensificatin f built up areas, with a fcus n urban grwth centres, intensificatin crridrs, majr transit statin areas, brwnfield sites and grey fields. The plan recgnizes that cncentrating new develpment in these areas will prvide a fcus fr transit and infrastructure investments which in turn will supprt future grwth. The plan places the highest pririty n public transit fr transprtatin infrastructure planning and majr transprtatin investments. The plan als establishes criteria t guide decisins n transit planning and investment. Fr further infrmatin n the Places t Grw Plan, refer t Sectin 2.1 f the Baseline Reprt, fund in Appendix 3. 1 The Electrificatin Study bjectives are detailed in the dcument entitled High Level Decisin Making Framewrk, refer t sectin 3.3. This dcument may be fund in Appendix 1 f this reprt. 2 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

19 2.2. The Big Mve Metrlinx was created by the Gvernment f Ontari t develp and integrate a multi mdal transprtatin plan fr the Greater Trnt and Hamiltn Area (Trnt, Hamiltn, Durham, Haltn, Peel and Yrk). Metrlinx has develped a Reginal Transprtatin Plan (RTP) called The Big Mve, which will guide future transprtatin develpment in the GTHA. The Metrlinx RTP includes the cnstructin f ver 1,200 kilmetres f rapid transit mre than triples what exists nw. This will prvide 80 per cent f residents in the regin with access t rapid transit within tw kilmetres f their hmes. This will facilitate the reductin in average cmmute times and transit riders will have access t jbs that were previusly difficult t reach by transit. The Big Mve identifies new transprtatin initiatives that amunt t tw billin dllars annually ver the next 25 years the largest public transit expansin in half a century. Over its life span, this investment will nt nly help create thusands f new green and well paid jbs, but als will save billins f dllars in time, energy and ther efficiencies. Transprtatin related emissins accunt fr abut ne third f greenhuse gases emitted in Ontari. The Big Mve will prvide travel alternatives which will reduce emissins leading t a healthier envirnment. Each year traffic cngestin csts $6 billn thrugh delays and lst prductivity. An imprved transit system will enhance ur cmpetitiveness, prvide direct emplyment and cntribute $70 billin in business revenue. The visin and gals fr the Reginal Transprtatin Plan (RTP) are described in sectin 2.2 f the Baseline Reprt fund in Appendix GO 2020 GO Transit is the Greater Trnt and Hamiltn Area s interreginal public transprtatin service. Each weekday GO Transit carries ver 200,000 passengers n 180 train trips and 2000 bus trips. The trains perate n seven train lines and service almst 60 statins. GO Transit carries apprximately 55 millin peple annually. GO 2020 is GO Transit s strategic plan which cmmits t meeting the regin s interreginal transprtatin needs, cnsistent with the Grwth Plan fr the Greater Glden Hrseshe and Metrlinx s RTP. Tgether, GO 2020 and Metrlinx s RTP prvide the basis fr GO Transit s 10 year capital prgram, three year perating plan, and annual business plans and budgets. GO Transit s visin is t be the preferred chice fr interreginal travel in the Greater Glden Hrseshe, 2 with a cmprehensive netwrk, frequent service, adequate seating capacity, cmpetitive travel times, and service reliability. Fr further infrmatin n the GO 2020 Plan, refer t sectin 2.3 f the Baseline Reprt, fund in Appendix 3. 2 GO 2020, 2008; p GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

20 3. METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW 3.1. Study Principles GO Transit currently uses diesel electric lcmtives in push pull peratins with bi level passenger cach and cab cars. The bjective f this study was t assess future technlgy ptins, t review their viability in varius crridr envirnments as well as at the netwrk level, and t develp a detailed analysis f the infrmatin gathered, s as t assist Metrlinx in determining if there is a case fr electrificatin f the GO Transit netwrk, either in whle r in part. In a sciety where there is a grwing realizatin that financial resurces are finite, investment decisins are increasingly dependent n the return that investment is likely t make. The justificatin f a multi billin dllar investment will require the cnsideratin f its ability t achieve strategic bjectives, a full understanding f its impacts, and that the chsen slutin ffers the best return r value fr mney. The decisin n whether t meet future service requirements by using cnventinal and future diesel pwered trains r by utilizing trains pwered by electricity r alternate means is highly cmplex and requires a great deal f cnsideratin f impacts acrss a wide range f disciplines. Sme f these impacts can be quantified r valued in mnetary terms, while thers will be mre qualitative r subjective. The study cnsidered and evaluated technlgy and netwrk ptins in a traceable, defensible and transparent manner thrugh the applicatin f a decisin making framewrk in which alternatives are differentiated thrugh multi attribute criteria. The study team cmprised varius expert advisrs t prvide input n the relevant ptential impacts assciated with electrificatin, cvering the breadth and depth f issues t ensure that the infrmatin underpinning the evaluatin is rbust. The Electrificatin Study was guided by fur key principles that were develped by Metrlinx and its Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee: Objective: The study (and assciated stakehlder engagement and cmmunicatins prgram) will be cnducted thrugh a transparent, step by step prcess, s that results are traceable and readily understd. Cmprehensive: The study will lk at a full range f ptential technlgies electric, diesel and thers t pwer GO Transit trains in the future. The ecnmic, scial, envirnmental, peratinal and health benefits and impacts f the varius technlgies will be investigated. Inclusive: The study team will strive t engage a brad spectrum f stakehlders thrughut the prcess. Evidence Based: The study team will prvide stakehlders with rbust and credible infrmatin n technlgy ptins based n the mst up t date research and methds t enable infrmed participatin. 4 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

21 3.2. Study Stages The Electrificatin Study fllwed a cmprehensive five phase prcess t prvide Metrlinx s Bard f Directrs with the infrmatin needed t decide n hw GO Transit trains will be pwered in the future. The five phases are: Prject Initiatin; Baselining; Optins Develpment; Shrtlisting f Optins; and Detailed Assessment and Cnclusins. Figure 1: Stages f the Electrificatin Study Stage 1 Prject Initiatin The Prject Initiatin stage f the study included establishing the study scpe and methdlgy in cnsultatin with Metrlinx; it als included the mbilizatin f the Electrificatin Study cnsultancy team. A deliverable f the Prject Initiatin stage was the High Level Decisin Making Framewrk (DMF) which summarizes the verall Study evaluatin apprach. This is fund in Appendix 1 f this reprt. 5 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

22 Stage 2 Baselining The Baselining stage set the strategic cntext fr the study and established the fundatin which underpins the evaluatin f electrificatin. In particular, it cnsidered: the strategic gals and bjectives f Metrlinx as set ut in the Big Mve, r Reginal Transprtatin Plan (RTP) published in 2008; the Electrificatin Study bjectives and the pprtunities t which electrificatin f the GO Transit netwrk can help Metrlinx deliver thse strategic gals; the current and future transprtatin envirnment, in particular the rlling stck, netwrk and service frequencies f the GO Transit netwrk and passenger demand in the study hrizn (the Reference Case); and values and insight frm stakehlders and the cmmunities, and their feedback. The direct utput f the Baselining stage f the study is the Baseline Reprt which incrprates the Reference Case Wrkbk (fund in Appendix 3 f this reprt). Stage 3 Optins Develpment The Optins Develpment stage f the study essentially tackled the fllwing elements: Undertaking a review f ptential rlling stck ptins and taking frward a shrtlist f technlgies fr further cnsideratin by screening ut alternatives which did nt fit GO s requirements r were viewed as unprven and risky; Undertaking a review f ptential electricity pwer supply system ptins mst apprpriate fr the GO Transit netwrk then used as the basis f csting the electrificatin; Cnsulting with the public and stakehlders n the pssibilities and receiving feedback; Cnsidering the lng list f ptential cmbinatins f technlgies and crridrs, and identifying the criteria upn which the pre screening f netwrk ptins is undertaken; and Undertaking the pre screening exercise t remve thse netwrk ptins that did nt meet the agreed criteria, and retaining 18 netwrk ptins fr high level evaluatin. The Rlling Stck Technlgy Assessment Reprt (Appendix 4) cnsidered all rlling stck technlgies and recmmended fur technlgies fr further evaluatin. Cnsideratins t the pwer supply ptins mst apprpriate fr the GO Transit netwrk are fund in the Electrificatin Systems Technlgy Assessment Reprt (Appendix 6). Stage 4 Shrtlisting f Optins Fllwing the develpment f 18 netwrk ptins and the ptential technlgies that culd be adpted, these netwrk and technlgy ptins were evaluated at a high level as illustrated in Figure 2. Figure 2: Evaluatin f Optins 6 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

23 The prcess fr creating the shrtlist f ptins included: Cllecting rlling stck technlgy specificatins and crridr infrmatin cvering relevant csts, jurney time imprvements, ppulatin and envirnmental impacts t prduce a matrix f data; Undertaking a high level technlgy evaluatin t determine the ptimal electric train technlgy, as cmpared t the Reference Case, t be implemented n the GO Transit netwrk, and cnsidering screening ut technlgies which are less cst effective in delivering transprtatin and envirnmental benefits; Undertaking a high level crridr sectin evaluatin t determine the ptimal crridrs fr electrificatin, and an rder f pririty in electrifying crridr sectins; and Infrmed by the crridr sectin evaluatin, identifying which f the 18 netwrk ptins are mst cst effective in delivering transprtatin and envirnmental benefits. A ttal f six refined netwrk ptins, using the ptimal technlgy and with partial electrificatin where apprpriate, were taken frward fr detailed evaluatin and cmparisn with the Reference Case. Cnsultatin with the public and stakehlders and receiving feedback cntinued in this phase. Stage 5 Detailed Evaluatin and Cnclusins The final stage f the study fcused n the detailed evaluatin f electrificatin ptins as cmpared t the ptin f using Tier 4 diesel lcmtives (the Reference Case). This included: Develping the detailed Multiple Categry Evaluatin (MCE) framewrk used t evaluate ptins (fund in Appendix 8 J); Undertaking a detailed risk assessment n issues which may affect the case fr electrificatin (Appendix 8 J); Undertaking the detailed MCE n the six shrtlisted netwrk ptins, including sensitivity and scenari testing which may affect decisin making (fund in Appendix 9); Cnsidering wider cnstraints and pprtunities and implicatins n ther Metrlinx studies n the Electrificatin Study and vice versa; and Determining key phasing and implementatin cnsideratins, discussed in Sectin 12 and Appendix 10 f this reprt Prgressin f Optins 7 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

24 The prcess fr prgressin f ptins is summarized in the fllwing diagram, Figure 3. As the study evlved, ptins which were mst likely t deliver the benefits assciated with electrificatin in the mst cst effective manner were examined in the detailed evaluatin stage. Figure 3: Prgressin f Lng List t Shrt List f Optins 3.4. Multiple Categry Evaluatin Framewrk The multiple categry evaluatin (MCE) framewrk fr evaluating the merits f electrifying the GO Transit netwrk is cnsistent with Metrlinx s ther evaluatin framewrks. Naturally, there are particular elements which reflect the unique nature f the Electrificatin Study. The evaluatin framewrk sught t cver all the relevant impacts f electrificatin. The impacts were captured under the fllwing categries: Envirnmental and Health; User Benefits/Quality f Life; Scial and Cmmunity; Ecnmic; Financial; and Deliverability. Table 1 sets ut the sub categries that were cnsidered at the detailed evaluatin stage under the MCE categries. Further infrmatin n the develpment f the evaluatin framewrk is set ut in the High Level Decisin Making Framewrk (Appendix 1). Sectin 11 f this reprt summarizes the findings and cnclusins f the multiple categry evaluatin; details are fund in Appendix 9. 8 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

25 Table 1: Multiple Categry Evaluatin and Sub Categries Cnsidered Multiple Categry Envirnmental and Health User Benefits/Quality f Life Scial and Cmmunity Ecnmic Financial Delivery Sub Categry Greenhuse Gas Emissins and Climate Change Reginal Air Quality Lcal Air Quality and assciated Health Impacts Other Health Impacts Nise and Vibratin Aquatic Ecsystems Effect n Parks / Public Open Space Transprtatin Efficiency (Users) Transprtatin Efficiency (Nn Users) Transit Netwrk/ System Access Reliability Cmfrt and Expandability Land Use Integratin Lcal Impacts Cst Effectiveness Land Use and Prperty Value Prperty Effects Wider Ecnmic Benefits During Cnstructin Wider Ecnmic Benefits During Operatins Taxes Ttal Capital Cst Ttal Operating Cst Ttal Revenues Cnstructability Acceptability 9 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

26 4. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND COMMUNICATIONS 4.1. Intrductin Determining hw GO Transit Trains will be pwered in the future is an imprtant decisin ne that requires an examinatin f benefits and csts f the varius technlgy ptins, as well as cnsideratin f cmmunity values and pririties. Metrlinx recgnized the imprtance f engaging stakehlders as part f the Electrificatin Study prcess. Prir t the cmmencement f the Electrificatin Study, Metrlinx frmed a multidisciplinary, gegraphically diverse Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee (CAC) that assisted in the preparatin f the study Terms f Reference. These Terms f Reference called fr the develpment f a cmprehensive practive stakehlder engagement and cmmunicatin plan as well as implementatin f a stakehlder engagement prcess that wuld cnsider, dcument and cnslidate feedback by impacted GO Transit stakehlders Stakehlder Engagement Strategy Building n the directin in the study Terms f Reference, the study team wrked with Metrlinx staff t develp a cmprehensive Stakehlder Engagement and Cmmunicatins Plan fr the Electrificatin Study. This plan utlined hw Metrlinx and the study team wuld reach ut t and engage GTHA stakehlders during the develpment f the study in rder t: Educate stakehlders abut the study prcess and electrificatin ptins, such that they can prvide infrmed feedback during the study; and Facilitate input frm stakehlders thrughut the study prcess, in rder t infrm decisinmaking and study cnclusins. The stakehlder plan was specifically develped t address the key principles bjective, cmprehensive, inclusive and evidence based that were established fr the study by Metrlinx, in cnsultatin with the CAC. The plan was als designed t ensure that GTHA stakehlders are prvided with the pprtunity t cntribute fcused feedback n key utputs identified by Metrlinx and the CAC fr the study Guiding Principles fr Stakehlder Engagement The Stakehlder Engagement and Cmmunicatins Plan included a set f principles based n thse develped by Metrlinx and the CAC t guide engagement activities thrughut the Electrificatin Study prcess: Objectivity: The study (and assciated engagement and cmmunicatins prgram) will be cnducted thrugh a transparent, step by step prcess, such that study utcmes are traceable and readily understd by stakehlders. Cmprehensiveness: Multiple pprtunities fr stakehlder participatin including facet face meetings and web based cnsultatin will be prvided during the study, backed by a multi faced cmmunicatins prgram, designed t generate brad awareness f the study and electrificatin issues and ptins. 10 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

27 Inclusiveness: The study will strive t engage a brad spectrum f stakehlders reflecting the ethn culturally diverse and cmplex stakehlder envirnment in the Greater Trnt and Hamiltn area thrughut the study prcess. Evidence Based: The study team will prvide stakehlders with rbust and credible infrmatin n electrificatin ptins based n the mst up t date research and methds t enable infrmed participatin in the study prcess. Traceability: The results f the stakehlder engagement prgram will be clearly dcumented and the impact f participant input n decisin making will be demnstrated Overview f Engagement Methdlgy The Stakehlder Engagement and Cmmunicatins Plan included a variety f face t face and web based appraches t reach ut t and engage cmmunity and industry grups, GO Transit rail users, and the general public in the Electrificatin Study, as summarized in Table 2. Table 2: Stakehlder Outreach and Engagement Methds Stakehlder Grup Frmer Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee Nn Gvernment Stakehlders frm acrss GHTA: envirnment/health, cmmunity, land use, scial planning, transprtatin, cmmuter grups, business, ecnmic, develpment, academic Rail System Users General Public Gvernment Agencies Municipal, Prvincial, Federal Technical including Rail (CN/CP/VIA) and Electrical (e.g., OPA, Hydr One) Outreach & Engagement Methds Update Meetings Wrkshp Series Meetings with GO s Custmer Service Advisry Cmmittee (CSAC) made up f rail system users Web based Cnsultatin, Media Briefings Meetings and Briefings Technical Wrking Meetings T view a cpy f the full Stakehlder Engagement and Cmmunicatins plan, please refer t Appendix 2B. 11 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

28 4.5. Stakehlder Engagement Highlights t Date The fllwing sectins utline the key engagement and cmmunicatins activities that were cnducted thrughut the cmpletin f the Electrificatin Study. Nn Gvernment Stakehlder List and Study Database At the start f the Electrificatin Study, a list f apprximately 100 nn gvernment rganizatin cntacts was created, representing the brad gegraphic scpe f the study and the diverse study tpic areas. Thse identified n this list were invited t participate at the Electrificatin Study Stakehlder Wrkshps and have received regular updates frm the study team 3. The study team als created and maintained a database f interested individuals, stakehlders, agencies, businesses and rganizatins that it used fr cmmunicatin purpses. The stakehlder database currently cntains apprximately 500 cntacts, including: Members f the frmer Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee (CAC); The list f Nn Gvernmental Organizatins invited t participate at the Electrificatin Study Wrkshps; Municipal Planning and Transprtatin Officials, and Transit Service Prviders; Prvincial and Federal Agencies with a ptential interest in the study; Technical (rail and electrical rganizatins); GTHA residents and cntacts wh request t be added t the study cntact list thrugh the prject website; and Municipal, Prvincial and Federal pliticians with cnstituencies in the study area. Electrificatin Study Website In early April 2010, Metrlinx and the study team activated the enhanced Electrificatin Study website, with a mre user friendly interface where stakehlders culd btain up t date prject infrmatin, electrificatin fact sheets and case studies, backgrund reprts, previus electrificatin studies, and learn hw t participate in the Electrificatin Study prcess. Integrated int this website was the pprtunity fr stakehlders t cmmunicate with the study team via a dedicated study address, and t prvide cmments n key prject reprts. Website visitrs were invited t cmment n several fundatinal study reprts, including the High Level Decisin Making Framewrk, Rlling Stck Technlgy Assessment, Baseline Reprt, Pwer Supply and Distributin Systems Technlgy Assessment, Netwrk Optins Reprt and the Prgress Reprt. The study website can be accessed thrugh the hme page f bth the Metrlinx and GO Transit websites. 3 Wrkshp invitatin lists are available in Appendix 2C. 12 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

29 Stakehlder Wrkshp # 1 The first nn gvernment stakehlder wrkshp fr the Electrificatin Study tk place n Wednesday, March 31, The wrkshp intrduced representatives frm nngvernmental rganizatins t the study and btained early feedback n the study apprach and bjectives. In additin, the wrkshp prvided the study team with an pprtunity t interact with rganizatins frm acrss the GTHA, enabling increased understanding f stakehlder values and gals related t the Electrificatin Study. In ttal, twenty five representatives f nn gvernmental rganizatins attended the first wrkshp. A full reprt n Wrkshp #1 is included in Appendix 2C. Metrlinx Planning and Transprtatin Leaders Frum The Electrificatin Study team was invited t prvide an intrductin t the study t the Metrlinx Planning and Transprtatin Leaders Frum n April 15 th, The meeting prvided an pprtunity fr the study team t answer questins and btain feedback frm municipal planning and transprtatin leaders acrss the GTHA n the study bjectives, prcess and apprach. GO Transit Custmer Service Advisry Cmmittee Meeting On May 3, 2010, the Electrificatin Study team was invited t attend the GO Transit Custmer Service Advisry Cmmittee quarterly meeting t discuss the study prgress and the stakehlder engagement and cmmunicatins strategy. The results f the meeting reaffirmed the study team s engagement apprach and highlighted the anticipated interest frm the brader stakehlder cmmunity nce a shrt list f the ptins is develped in the Fall f Update Meeting (Gergetwn Crridr) On May 27th, 2010, the Electrificatin Study team hsted an Update Meeting fr cmmunities lcated alng the Gergetwn Suth Crridr. The meeting prvided participants with an pprtunity t review the wrk cmpleted t date and ask questins and prvide cmments t the Electrificatin Study Team. An estimated 100 individuals attended the Update Meeting, with 84 participants pting t sign in prir t the meeting. The meeting ffered the study team an pprtunity t hear the specific cncerns f the cmmunities alng Gergetwn Suth Crridr and btain preliminary feedback n the prpsed rlling stck and netwrk ptins. A full reprt n the Update Meeting is included in Appendix 2D. Municipal Transit Leaders Briefing In rder t gain input frm municipal transit peratrs acrss the GTHA, the Electrificatin Study team rganized a Transit Leaders Briefing n June 15 th, The meeting, held via cnference call, intrduced participants t the Electrificatin Study and prvided an pprtunity fr the participants t ask questins and prvide cmments related t municipal transit peratins. T review the highlights f the briefing please refer t Appendix 2E. 13 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

30 Gvernment Agency Cnsultatins In additin t the municipal meetings described abve, study team members met with Prvincial gvernment agencies including the Ontari Ministry f Transprtatin, Ontari Pwer Authrity and Hydr One t discuss the study prcess and related cnsideratins. Stakehlder Wrkshp # 2 The secnd nn gvernment stakehlder wrkshp was held n June 15 th, 2010 and engaged eleven representatives frm nn gvernmental rganizatins. The wrkshp presented and invited feedback n the rlling stck technlgy and netwrk ptins develped fr the GO Transit netwrk. In additin, participants engaged in an interactive discussin abut the prpsed apprach fr the further assessment f ptins. A full reprt n Wrkshp #2 is included in Appendix 2F. Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee Update Meeting On July 7 th, 2010, the Electrificatin Study team met with members f the frmer CAC t btain feedback n the study team s prgress. The results f the meeting reaffirmed the study teams apprach and highlighted the imprtance f calculating the cmmunity, land use, and envirnmental impacts f the varius rlling stck technlgy and netwrk ptins. A full reprt n the meeting is included in Appendix 2G. Stakehlder Wrkshp #3 The third nn gvernment stakehlder wrkshp fr the Electrificatin Study tk place n Wednesday, September 22 nd, The wrkshp prvided stakehlders with an pprtunity t prvide feedback n the high level evaluatin used t identify a shrt list f six netwrk ptins fr the ptential electrificatin f the GO Transit netwrk. In additin, it prvided nngvernmental rganizatins with an pprtunity discuss the varius study utputs psted t the Electrificatin Study website and prvide feedback n the wrk cmpleted t date. In ttal, eighteen representatives f nn gvernmental rganizatins attended the third wrkshp. A full reprt n Wrkshp #3 is included in Appendix 2H. Media Briefing T facilitate an understanding f Electrificatin Study prgress, n September 28, 2010 the study team and Metrlinx staff rganized a ne hur update sessin fr varius media representatives. The sessin prvided the media with an pprtunity t learn mre abut the wrk cmpleted by the study team in an effrt t help them understand hw the GO Transit rail netwrk culd be pwered in the future. During the briefing participants were given the pprtunity t ask Metrlinx staff questins pertaining t the nging prgress f the Electrificatin Study. Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee Update Meeting On Nvember 24 th, 2010, the Electrificatin Study team met with members f the frmer CAC t update the grup f the study team s prgress and present key preliminary findings and the results f the detailed assessment f the netwrk ptins. The meeting highlighted the diverse factrs that will need t be cnsidered during the decisin making prcess fllwing the cmpletin f the Electrificatin Study. T view the Cmmunity Advisry Cmmittee meeting ntes n please refer t Appendix 2I. Stakehlder Wrkshp #4 14 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

31 The furth and final nn gvernment stakehlder wrkshp fr the Electrificatin Study tk place n Wednesday, December 1 st, The wrkshp presented key preliminary findings and the results f the detailed assessment f netwrk ptins. The wrkshp als prvided stakehlders with an pprtunity t prvide input int the preliminary findings thrugh asking questins and prviding cmments t the Electrificatin Study team. In ttal, nineteen representatives f nn gvernmental rganizatins attended the frth wrkshp. A full reprt n Wrkshp #4 is included in Appendix 2J. Media Briefing On December 15, 2010, Metrlinx staff hsted a ne hur media briefing fr representatives wh attended the previus sessin in Nvember. The purpse f the briefing was t present the key preliminary findings and the results f the detailed assessment. The sessin prvided participants with an update n the prgress f the Electrificatin Study. Further, it prvided media the pprtunity t discuss the Electrificatin Study prcess with Metrlinx staff during the final stages f the study. Technical Wrking Sessins In rder t understand the brad factrs required t electrify the GO Transit netwrk, the study team met with a number f train peratrs and service prviders. The results f these technical wrking sessins, which included meetings with Canadian Natinal Railway (CN), Canadian Pacific Railway (CP), Hydr One, Ontari Pwer Authrity (OPA) and the Greater Trnt Airprt Authrity (GTAA), highlighted the level f cmplexity required t electrify the GO Transit netwrk. In additin, the study team has met with representatives f Agence Métrplitaine de Transprt (AMT), wh are currently undertaking a similar Electrificatin Study, t discuss their experience and the study team s prgress. The meeting affirmed the study team s apprach and prvided an pprtunity t dialgue with AMT n lessns learned and best practices fr electrificatin Highlights f Stakehlder Feedback Thrughut the year lng Electrificatin Study, several key issues emerged as areas f interest and cncern fr stakehlders. A mre cmplete listing f issues/cmments, alng with study team respnses, is prvided in Appendix 2K f this reprt. In summary, the majr issues identified t date and the crrespnding study team respnse (italicised) are listed belw: Many stakehlders emphasized the need t integrate the Airprt Rail Link (ARL) int the Electrificatin Study and stressed the imprtance f cnsidering electrificatin in implementing the ARL. Further, several stakehlders suggested that the ARL shuld be a starting pint fr electrificatin. In July, 2010, Metrlinx was asked by the Ontari gvernment t build, wn, and perate the ARL. The ARL was included in the Terms f Reference f the Electrificatin Study and has been fully integrated in the Electrificatin Study. The ARL, which will be situated in the Gergetwn Crridr, has been included in the study team s assessment f the technlgy and netwrk ptins. 15 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

32 Further details n when Metrlinx s Bard f Directrs will make decisins and act upn the findings and cnclusins f the Electrificatin Study are requested. The Electrificatin Study will be cmpleted by late December It is anticipated that the Metrlinx Bard will cnsider the study findings and cnclusins at the Bard meeting in February Sme members f the public have expressed cncern abut the ptential t bias the study findings in favur f Tier 4 technlgy. The study team shuld include the csts f cnverting existing lcmtives t Tier 4 technlgy as part f cmparing csts during the study. The study team cnsidered the increased csts f Tier 4 lcmtives and did nt assume the fleet is in place. This cst was used fr cmparing diesel and electric peratins in an bjective manner. There are several nging studies currently underway that will have an impact n the electrificatin f the GO Transit rail netwrk. Specifically, the Unin Statin Capacity Study and Unin 2031 Demand/Opprtunity Study need t be incrprated int the study findings and addressed in the Electrificatin Study. A number f stakehlders have recgnized that Unin Statin is a key factr in where and hw electrificatin can be implemented. The study team has met with the cnsultants engaged in these studies and have made every effrt t integrate the findings and cnclusins f the nging Metrlinx studies (e.g. Unin Statin Capacity Study, Unin 2031 Demand/ Opprtunity Study) that are available int the Electrificatin Study. Electrify the Gergetwn Suth Crridr n a pririty basis. A number f cmmunities surrunding the Gergetwn Suth Crridr have expressed significant cncerns abut the envirnmental, air quality, nise, and cmmunity impacts f existing peratins and planned service expansin within their cmmunities. The Electrificatin Study is an bjective and cmprehensive assessment f the electrificatin technlgy and netwrk ptins available t GO Transit. The study s findings and cnclusins will be used by the Metrlinx Bard t make a recmmendatin(s) t the Prvince f Ontari. The study team shuld ensure the Reference Case is an accurate perating/service plan fr the medium term in the GTHA. A number f stakehlders highlighted that the service levels utlined in the Electrificatin Study are lwer than thse utlined in GO 2020 and The Big Mve and expressed cncerns that the Reference Case des nt accurately depict the perating envirnment in the medium term. The Reference Case is cnsistent with GO 2020 which bridges the service levels frecasted in The Big Mve. All crridrs evlve differently, hwever demand is cnsistently higher fr the Lakeshre line. 16 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

33 D nt verstate the csts fr electrifying the GO Transit netwrk. Several initiatives are currently underway are ensuring new rail infrastructure is cmpatible with electrified rail peratins. The study team shuld ensure they d a thrugh assessment f the cst fr electrifying the GO Transit netwrk t ensure it is nt inflated. The study examined the additinal csts f prviding an electrified railway t meet the service requirements f the Reference Case. Human and envirnmental health, quality f life, and scial impacts need t be reviewed and given pririty when screening the technlgy and netwrk ptins. Many stakehlders emphasized the particular imprtance f understanding the impacts f greenhuse gas emissins, lcal air quality, and nise n cmmunities surrunding GO Transit rail lines. Human and envirnmental health, quality f life, and ther cmmunity impacts were imprtant cmpnents f the detailed assessment f the available technlgy and netwrk ptins fr GO Transit. Fr the purpses f the study, credible and recgnized guidelines fr envirnmental and human health standards (such as thse utlined by the Wrld Health Organizatin and Ontari Ministry f the Envirnment) were used t understand human, envirnmental, and cmmunity impacts f the varius technlgy and netwrk ptins. 17 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

34 5. BASELINING/REFERENCE CASE DEVELOPMENT As described in the previus methdlgy verview, baselining/ Reference Case develpment was a critical stage f the study wherein a cmprehensive descriptin f existing cnditins was develped, including: The GO Transit netwrk f seven rail crridrs; The infrastructure (tracks, statins, platfrms, parking lts, signal systems, bridges, crssings, culverts and grade separatins) that supprts GO s rail peratins; The current service levels prvided by GO Transit t its rail passengers fr each f the seven rail crridrs; and The rlling stck lcmtives and caches nw used t prvide GO Transit rail service in the GTHA. This infrmatin is fund in Appendix 3, Baseline Reprt. In additin, the Reference Case was develped in cnsultatin with Metrlinx staff. The purpse f develping the Reference Case was t prvide a basis fr cmparisn and t ensure that the incremental benefits and csts f electrificatin were captured. This is described belw Reference Case fr the Electrificatin Study The Reference Case presents a pint in time which was established fr the purpses f cmparisn withut burdening Electrificatin with the prpsed develpment and service plans that are planned regardless f the technlgy. The Reference Case was develped t prvide a cnsistent basis and assumptins fr cmparing future technlgy and netwrk ptins as part f the Electrificatin Study. It represents a reasnable scenari fr future GO Transit rail service which incrprates existing attributes and apprved/planned enhancements f GO s rail netwrk, rlling stck, rail infrastructure and service levels cnsistent with the GO2020 service visin. The Reference Case was prepared specifically fr this study and includes a high level service cncept (nt a plan), which is ne pssible utcme, subject t detailed feasibility, passenger demand and capital/perating funding. The fllwing utlines the key assumptins made in develping the Reference Case, which is described belw in terms f rlling stck, infrastructure, and service levels. Fr mre detailed infrmatin abut the Reference Case, refer t Sectin 4 f the Baseline Reprt, fund in Appendix 3. Assumptins This study has made a number f assumptins abut the GO Transit rail netwrk, service level and available infrastructure t enable a cnsistent and identifiable apprach t be taken when cmparing alternative technlgies. 18 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

35 The key assumptins fr the Reference Case are as fllws: Unin Statin will have the capacity t receive the inbund and utbund services in the Reference Case. Each train will have 10 bi level caches, with seating capacity fr 1540 passengers and this will be the same fr each crridr. Train length will nt be changed during nrmal daily peratin. The peratins f CN/CP/ONR and Via Rail are assumed t have n impact n the prpsed schedule. The whle GO Transit rail netwrk will be cnsidered fr Electrificatin. Reference Case Rlling Stck As part f the GO Electrificatin Study, the Reference Case assumed that Tier 4 Diesel MP40 rlling stck will be in peratin. GO Transit has cmmitted t cnvert t Tier 4 emissin standards. In 2015, Tier 4 emissins cmpliancy will be mandated fr all new and remanufactured lcmtives in the United States. This is therefre the rlling stck against which ther technlgies are assessed in the study. Fr the Airprt Rail Link service, single level, self prpelled diesel pwered railcars knwn as diesel multiple units (DMU) in tw car trains will be cmpared t single level electric multiple units (EMU). Reference Case Infrastructure The infrastructure including additinal track and crridr extensins included in the Reference Case is shwn in Figure GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

36 Figure 4: Reference Case Schematic Netwrk Shwing Ownership, Number f Tracks and Lcatin f Facilities Nte: Schematic is illustrative and strictly fr the purpses f the Electrificatin Study cmparative analysis 20 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

37 The additinal statins and crridr extensins included in the Reference Case are shwn in Figure 5. Figure 5: Reference Case Netwrk Schematic Shwing Statins and Crridr Extensins Nte: Schematic is illustrative and strictly fr the purpses f the Electrificatin Study cmparative analysis Reference Case Service Levels The Reference Case refers t a future cncept that was prepared t prvide an effective base, which can be used t assess the benefits f alternate mdes f prpulsin. Further analysis f the perating plan is required t refine systemic requirements. Final implementatin may vary as feasibility is cnfirmed, demand warrants, and perating/capital funding is prvided in the medium term hrizn. The Reference Case is nly an indicatin f the increase in service ver the next decade t be used t infrm the assessment f ptins within this study. It assumes 629 train trips per day, an almst 250% increase ver the current 180 train trips per day. The fllwing details are taken frm the descriptin f the Reference Case service cncept as supplied by Metrlinx. 21 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

38 Table 3: Reference Case Service Levels Crridr Number f trains arriving at Unin Statin in the 3 hur AM peak Number f trains arriving at Unin Statin every weekday Current Reference Case Current Reference Case Lakeshre West Lakeshre East Miltn Gergetwn Air Rail Link (ARL) Barrie Richmnd Hill Stuffville Ttal GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

39 6. ROLLING STOCK TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT The rlling stck technlgy assessment entailed identifying a brad range f existing and future ptential rlling stck technlgies that culd be used t prvide future GO Transit rail services. Rlling stck technlgies cnsidered include: Diesel Lcmtives Diesel Multiple Units (DMU) Electric Lcmtives Electric Multiple Units (EMU) Dual Mde Lcmtives Dual Mde Multiple Units Alternative Rlling Stck Technlgies and Enhancements, including Alternative Lcmtive Fuels Hybrid Drive Trains Hydrgen Fuel Cell Drive Trains Maglev New System Cncepts In additin t describing and cmparing the technical attributes f these technlgies, the rlling stck technlgy assessment invlved the use f fur screening criteria t identify a shrt list f technlgies fr further assessment. The criteria used in the assessment include: Is the technlgy prven? Is the technlgy cmmercially viable? Is the technlgy cmpatible with the Reference Case infrastructure? Is the technlgy cmpatible with the Reference Case service levels? After examinatin f the candidate rlling stck technlgies, it was cncluded that a number f technlgy alternatives shuld be eliminated frm further cnsideratin based n the applicatin f the fur screening criteria. Further, it was recmmended that the fllwing technlgies be carried frward fr mre detailed assessment and analysis as part f the Electrificatin Study: Diesel Lcmtives Bi Level caches Electric Lcmtives Bi Level caches Electric Multiple Units Bi Level caches Dual Mde Lcmtives Bi Level caches These rlling stck technlgies are illustrated in Figures 6 t 9, respectively. Figure 6: GO Diesel Lcmtive Hauled Train (MP40PH 3C) t be cnverted t Tier 4 23 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

40 Figure 7: Example f an Electric Lcmtive 24 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

41 Figure 8: Example f an Electric Multiple Unit train Figure 9: Example f a Dual Mde Lcmtive 25 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

42 7. OPERATING PLAN FOR THE ELECTRIFICATION STUDY An assessment f the shrt listed rlling stck technlgies was carried ut at the Reference Case traffic level. As part f this assessment, it was necessary t develp the GO Transit perating scenari fr the Reference Case in rder t develp an estimate f the number f train sets required, peak lad, and energy requirements t perate the prjected service. The trains cnsisted f 10 bi level cars hauled by 1 electric r dual mde lcmtive (r 12 bilevel EMUs fr an equivalent seating capacity) n all crridrs, except the Airprt Rail Link, where 2 car single level electric multiple unit trains were mdeled. The perating scenari was develped specifically fr this study and was based n numerus assumptins (such as the lcatin f vernight train strage etc.) which are subject t further planning and analysis. The perating scenari, peak lad and energy requirements are the key inputs in sizing and spacing f the electric substatins. The analysis shwed that a ttal f 92 train sets are needed t perate the GO Reference Case service and fur train sets are needed fr the ARL service (excluding spares/standby). The weekday diesel requirement fr GO Transit train peratin with the diesel lcmtive and ARL trains with DMU is estimated at 58,320 imperial gallns f diesel fuel (including htel pwer and 10% allwance fr train idling). An peratins analysis was carried ut t estimate the jurney time savings in the train peratin with the different technlgy ptins. The jurney time savings arise principally frm the difference in the hauling capacity f the different technlgies. Train peratin with a Tier 4 cmpliant MP40 diesel electric lcmtive r equivalent is the base against which the jurney times with the alternate technlgies are cmpared. A key assumptin is n change in the maximum allwable speeds f GO Transit trains, which are cnstrained by the Reference Case track cnfiguratin. EMUs have significantly higher pulling capacity cmpared t diesel electric lcmtives thrughut the full perating range f GO Transit trains and hence ffer the highest savings in jurney time. With EMUs, the savings are apprximately 8 t 18 minutes fr mst f the crridrs. The electric lcmtive has a smewhat higher pulling capacity than the dieselelectric lcmtive in the mid t upper speed range but an inferir pulling capacity in the lwer speed range and therefre ffers fewer savings in jurney time than the EMU. With the electric lcmtives, the estimated savings are apprximately 3 t 8 minutes fr mst f the crridrs. Nte that n the Richmnd Hill and Stuffville crridrs line speeds and track curvatures restrict ptential transit time savings. Refer t Table 4 fr a mre detailed cmparisn by crridr. 26 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

43 Table 4: Jurney Time Savings The dual mde lcmtive in the diesel mde is technically very similar t an MP40 lcmtive and cnsequently ffers n jurney time savings, while the dual mde lcmtive in the electric mde ffers mre savings due t its slightly superir pulling effrt cmpared t a MP40 unit (but nt as much as an electric lcmtive). With the dual mde lcmtive in the electric mde, the savings are apprximately 2 t 6 minutes fr mst f the crridrs. Fr details n the jurney time savings f each rlling stck technlgy, please refer t Appendix 5 f this reprt. 27 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

44 8. POWER SUPPLY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT The pwer supply technlgy assessment entailed identifying a brad range f existing and future ptential electrificatin system technlgies that culd be used t prvide pwer t the future GO Transit rail services. The electrificatin system technlgies cnsidered included the fllwing candidates: DC electrificatin systems, AC electrificatin systems at cmmercial frequency, AC electrificatin systems at nn cmmercial frequency, Cmbinatin f AC and DC electrificatin systems, and Alternative system technlgies and enhancements, including: Wayside energy strage, and Wayside hydrgen fuel cell pwer generatin. In additin t describing and cmparing the technical attributes f these technlgies, the electrificatin system technlgy assessment invlved the use f five screening criteria t identify a shrt list f technlgies fr further assessment. The criteria used in the assessment include: Is the technlgy prven? Is the technlgy technically viable? Is the technlgy cmmercially viable? Is the technlgy cmpatible with the Reference Case infrastructure? Is the technlgy cmpatible with the Reference Case service levels? Fllwing examinatin f the candidate electrificatin system technlgies, a number f technlgy alternatives were eliminated frm further cnsideratin based n the applicatin f the screening criteria. Further, it was determined that the fllwing technlgies satisfied the evaluatin criteria t the highest degree, and therefre shuld be carried frward fr mre detailed assessment and analysis as part f the Electrificatin Study: Direct fed system perating at 1x25 kv ac electrificatin vltage and cmmercial frequency f 60 Hz; Auttransfrmer fed system perating at 2x25 kv ac electrificatin vltage and cmmercial frequency f 60 Hz; and Direct fed system perating at 1x50 kv ac electrificatin vltage and cmmercial frequency f 60 Hz. 28 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

45 During further evaluatin it als became apparent that several bridges alng the rute have limited vertical clearance. Since the 1x50 kv electrificatin system requires higher vertical clearance abve the rail than the 2x25 kv system, mre bridges wuld have t be mdified shuld the 50 kv system be implemented. This wuld be unecnmical due t requirements fr frequent track lwering r bridge raising. Als, advantages f the 2x25 kv auttransfrmer fed system ver the 1x25 kv direct fed system include greater substatin spacing. Therefre, the technlgy selected and recmmended fr develpment f cnceptual design and cst estimate f the GO Transit system electrificatin is: Auttransfrmer fed system perating at 2x25 kv ac electrificatin vltage and cmmercial frequency f 60 Hz The advantage f the 2x25 kv auttransfrmer fed system is that it achieves substatin reach cmparable t the 50 kv system with the need t prvide clearances nly fr 25 kv vltage. The system is being used extensively verseas and in the United States the system is used by Amtrak n the Nrthend Electrificatin system frm New Haven, CT t Bstn, MA, a distance f 156 miles. The auttransfrmer system is a standard system used fr the type and size f cmmuter netwrks like the GO Transit netwrk. Other examples f cmmuter railrads in the United States being pwered by the same system in revenue service include: New Haven Line frm Pelham, NY t New Haven, CT perating at 2x12.5 kv, 60 Hz, and wned by Metr Nrth Railrad (MNR) Mrris & Essex Line frm Kearny Junctin in Kearny, NJ (just utside New Yrk, NY) t Dver, NJ and Gladstne, NJ perating at 2x25 kv, 60 Hz, and wned by New Jersey Transit (NJT) Cmmuter line netwrk in Philadelphia and its suburbs perating at unique 24 kv/12 kv, 25 Hz, and wned by Sutheastern Pennsylvania Transprtatin Authrity (SEPTA) 29 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

46 Figure 10: Typical 2x25 kv System Auttransfrmer Statin The 2x25 kv auttransfrmer fed system is als being emplyed in the design fr electrificatin f the Califrnia High Speed Rail prject linking San Francisc, Sacrament, Ls Angeles and San Dieg. In Canada, the Agence Métrplitaine de Transprt (AMT) uses direct fed 1x25 kv, 60 Hz system fr electrificatin f their Deux Mntagnes cmmuter line. Hwever, the 2x25 kv, 60 Hz auttransfrmer system is being cnsidered in AMT s Electrificatin Study. The chsen technlgy is fully cmpatible with the technlgy used by Agence Métrplitaine de Transprt (AMT) fr electrificatin f their Deux Mntagnes cmmuter line in suburban Mntreal. In the event that the entire Trnt Mntreal rute is electrified in the future, VIA, freight and/r high speed trains wuld be able t perate alng the crridr withut cnflicts. 30 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

47 9. CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF THE ELECTRIFICATION SYSTEM A cmprehensive cmputer aided train peratin simulatin and electrical system lad flw mdeling was perfrmed fr the perating schedule included in the Reference Case. The trains cnsisted f 10 bi level cars hauled by electric lcmtives n all crridrs, except the Airprt Rail Link, where 2 car single level electric multiple unit trains were mdeled. The results f the mdeling studies prvided the perfrmance f the rlling stck and the tractin electrificatin system fr evaluatin f the cnceptual design suitability and adequacy. Further, they predicted pwer demands at each substatin and system energy cnsumptin fr estimates f the electrificatin system perating csts. Based n the train simulatin system mdeling studies, the cnceptual design f the system was develped. Assuming full electrificatin f all the seven crridrs and the Airprt Rail link, the system can be supplied with pwer using seven (7) tractin pwer substatins, 17 auttransfrmer statins, and fur (4) switching statins. Figure 11: Typical 2x25 kv System Substatin The substatins are shwn in the fllwing Table 5: 31 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

48 Table 5: Lcatin f Tractin Pwer Substatins GO System Line Metrlinx Substatins Hydr One Substatins Vltage (kv) Nte Lakeshre West Line Lakeshre East Line Gergetwn Line Mimic Hrner 230 Burlingtn West Cumberland 230 Scarbrugh Warden 230 Oshawa Thrntn 230 Dixie Rad Bramalea 230 Guelph Campbell 230 Tractin pwer substatin wuld be near Hydr One substatin. Tractin pwer substatin wuld be near Hydr One substatin. The substatin wuld als supply Richmnd Hill and Stuffville lines. Apprximately 1.5 mile f transmissin line r cable wuld be required. Apprximately ne mile f 230 kv transmissin line r cable wuld be required. Apprximately ¾ mile f 230 kv transmissin line r cable wuld be required. Apprximately 1.5 miles f transmissin line r cable wuld be required. Barrie Line Newmarket Armitage 230 Substatin wuld supply the entire Barrie line. Apprximately tw spans f transmissin line wuld be required. Hydr One cnfirmed sufficient thermal capacity f the supply circuits at all sites. The pwer supply at Armitage substatin is currently limited and shuld imprve by 2011 when the peaking Yrk Energy Center generating plant cmes n line. In rder t prvide the substatin transfrmers with sufficient pwer and t maintain high reliability f supply, the transfrmers wuld be cnnected t the 230 kv high vltage transmissin netwrk f the lcal pwer utility Hydr One. In rder t limit prvisin f cstly high vltage transmissin lines r cables, the tractin pwer substatins wuld be lcated as clse as pssible t Hydr One substatins. Fr redundancy purpses, each Metrlinx substatin wuld include tw equally rated tractin pwer transfrmers. Pwer frm the transfrmers t the pwer distributin system and eventually the trains wuld be delivered via wayside switchgear arrangements required fr cntrl and prtectin f the verhead cntact system (OCS). The ttal annual system wide energy cnsumptin is estimated at 284 millin kwh. Fr details related t the cnceptual design f the electrificatin system, refer t Appendix 7. The fllwing pricing fr electricity csts was used in the cst estimates: 32 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

49 Pwer demand charge: $5.41/kW fr maximum 1 hur demand at each transfrmer Energy cnsumptin charge: $0.0855/kWh Tgether, these tw charges prvided the estimated average annual cst f electricity at 10.8 cents/kwh (r $/kwh) fr the entire netwrk. In view f the single phase nature f the lads, harmnics, and fluctuatin, it is nrmal fr the utility cmpanies invlved with electrificatin t assess the impact f the lads n a case by case basis. This wuld be dne by an Impact Assessment and/r Cnnectin Assessment. It shuld be nted that 25 kv single phase ac tractin lad and its supply frm pwer utility transmissin system is a very much cmmn practice. Over 50,000 miles r 80,000 km f railrad are electrified wrldwide using this system. Amtrak's Nrthend electrificatin (157 miles frm New Haven, CT t Bstn, MA) is electrified at 25 kv ac with primary supply being btained at 115 kv frm the three utility cmpanies in the area Cnnecticut Light and Pwer, Narragansett Electric (nw Natinal Grid) and Bstn Edisn (nw NStar). Unbalance & harmnic cntent at all the sites were fund t be within the acceptable limits f the utility cmpanies. Califrnia High Speed Rail als prpses t use this system with pwer t be btained frm Pacific Gas & Electric C. and frm Anaheim Public Utilities. Figure 12: Typical Tw Track 2x25 kv OCS and Feeder System with Side Ple Cnstructin Figure 13: Typical Multi Track 2x25 kv OCS and Feeder System with Prtal Cnstructin 33 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

50 10. PRE SCREENING AND HIGH LEVEL EVALUATION As described in Sectin 3, the study prcess entailed lking at the myriad f pssible cmbinatins f crridr and rlling stck technlgy ptins and pre screening these t develp a lng list f netwrk ptins fr high level evaluatin. The results f this prcess are set ut belw Pre Screening Over 16,000 (r 4 7 ) netwrk ptins were identified, based n: The 4 alternative technlgies fur shrt listed rlling stck technlgies were cnsidered including electric lcmtives, electric multiple units, dual mde lcmtives and diesel lcmtives (the existing reference case technlgy) and The 7 crridr alternatives the ptential use f a shrt listed rlling stck technlgy n any specific GO Transit line. Pre screening criteria were applied t substantially reduce the 16,000+ ptential netwrk ptins fr further evaluatin. These criteria were: The three shrt listed technlgies that require electrificatin electric lcmtives, electric multiple units, dual mde lcmtives were cnsidered t be a single family f technlgies; The Lakeshre East and Lakeshre West crridrs t perate the same type f rlling stck technlgy; and Investment in electrificatin shuld be fcused n the crridrs Gergetwn, Lakeshre East and Lakeshre West that have the highest demand/service and are likely t deliver the mst benefits. Once the pre screening criteria were applied, a lng list f 18 netwrk ptins was identified fr further evaluatin. These include netwrk ptins that range frm electrifying ne line t electrifying all crridrs t sme extent, using either electric lcmtives r EMUs, ptentially supplemented with dual mde lcmtives High Level Evaluatin The primary bjective f the high level evaluatin was t screen the lng list f netwrk ptins dwn t a manageable shrt list f 6, ensuring that there is a transparent and lgical ratinale fr taking frward these ptins and fcusing the detailed evaluatin n ptins which mst merit examinatin. The high level evaluatin enabled the determinatin f the apprpriate way frward n a number f key issues including: The Preferred Technlgy; The Optimal Service Sectins fr Each Crridr; The Use f Dual Mde Lcmtive Trains; and, The Shrtlist f 6 ptins. 34 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

51 This sectin f the reprt cvers the cnclusins under each f these in turn, fcusing n the high level evaluatin f envirnmental, transprtatin, ecnmic (cst efficiency) and implementatin aspects f the MCE (Multiple Categry Evaluatin). The Preferred Technlgy The shrtlisted technlgy ptins cnsidered as part f the high level evaluatin included: Diesel Lcmtives (as current but cnverted t Tier 4 emissin standards, as assumed in the Reference Case); Electric Lcmtives; Electric Multiple Units (EMUs); and, Dual Mde Lcmtives these were cnsidered n services which wuld perate thrugh partially electrified sectins f the crridr n the assumptin that passengers wuld prefer nt t interchange t reach their final destinatin if that was beynd the electrified part f the crridr. It is assumed that in each case the trains wuld perate the service level under the Reference Case and will have the same passenger carrying capacity. This means that all lcmtive ptins wuld have 10 passenger cars plus a lcmtive and in the EMU ptin there wuld be 12 passenger cars, f which half wuld have prpulsin equipment. The need fr this level f prpulsin equipment significantly increased the csts f this technlgy. Based n the findings f the high level evaluatin, the Electric Lcmtive trains were cncluded as the Preferred Technlgy fr the detailed evaluatin stages f this Electrificatin Study. Cmpared t the Diesel Lcmtive trains, they deliver passenger time savings and envirnmental benefits and were mre cst effective in ding s than ther technlgies. (EMUs cst arund 40% mre in capital csts, while ver the 30 year life cycle they were arund 2.5 times mre expensive, meaning a significantly larger capital and perating budget wuld be required.) In the case f the ARL, it is assumed that the initial deplyment f DMUs will be replaced by EMUs if the Gergetwn line is electrified either in part r in full. This cnclusin n preferred technlgy fr the detailed evaluatin stages f the prject des nt preclude EMUs being deplyed in the future n services which justify further expenditure t enhance the service, make better use f infrastructure enhancements and/r prvide greater peratinal flexibility. The Optimal Sectins f Each Crridr In the high level evaluatin, the 7 GO Transit lines were divided int a ttal f 19 service sectin ptins fr the purpse f examining the merits f partial electrificatin against full electrificatin. This was undertaken because it may nt be wrthwhile t electrify an entire crridr, especially if there are few trains that perate alng lng stretches f a line. Having analysed the crridr and rlling stck characteristics and prduced life cycle csts and benefits, it was cncluded that, in general, it is mre cst effective (in terms f delivering transprtatin and envirnmental benefits) t electrify the entire rute rather than sectins f rute. 35 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

52 The exceptin t this is the Lakeshre West crridr. In this case, the ptimal end pint is Hamiltn James, as Hamiltn TH+B and St. Catharines d nt strengthen the case fr electrifying the full rute, due t due t the limited number f trains destined there and the cst f mdificatins t the Hunter St. tunnel and adjacent bridges n the CP tracks. The Use f Dual Mde Lcmtive Trains Given that it is preferable t electrify the entire crridr in all circumstances with the exceptin f the Lakeshre West crridr beynd Hamiltn James, there is an ptin t run either Diesel Lcmtive r Dual Mde lcmtive trains fr services t Hamiltn TH+B and St. Catharines. Dual Mdes d nt prvide significant benefits ver Diesel Lcmtives because they are cstly t purchase and d nt deliver significant O&M savings in the case f St. Catharines. As the Dual Mde trains remain a less prven technlgy and nly a small fleet wuld be required t perate these services, the incremental rlling stck cst may well be significantly higher than assumed in the evaluatin as manufacturers wuld need t design and cnstruct a small fleet f Dual Mde Lcmtives which makes them impractical. It was therefre cncluded that Diesel Lcmtive trains wuld be retained n services that perate thrugh partially electrified sectins n the Lakeshre West line if it is nt fully electrified. Hwever, Dual Mde Lcmtive Trains may prvide flexibility when lking at a phased implementatin. The Shrtlist f Optins Based n the findings frm the evaluatin f service sectins and using the preferred technlgy f the Electric Lcmtive train, it was pssible t identify the pririty in which the sectins culd be electrified if the maximum benefits were t be delivered first. It was cncluded that after the Lakeshre and Gergetwn crridrs, Miltn and Barrie were the ther strngest perfrming crridrs in terms f delivering transprtatin and envirnmental benefits mst cst effectively. The 6 netwrk ptins taken frward fr detailed evaluatin and cmparisn against the Reference Case include the electrificatin f: The Gergetwn line (including the ARL) frm Unin t Kitchener (Optin 1); The Lakeshre East and West lines frm Bwmanville t Hamiltn James (Optin 2); The Gergetwn and Lakeshre lines tgether (Optin 3); The Gergetwn and Lakeshre lines plus the Miltn line frm Unin t Miltn (Optin 11); The Gergetwn and Lakeshre lines plus the Miltn line and the Barrie line frm Unin t Allandale (Optin 15); and The entire GO Transit netwrk (Optin 18). The shrt listed ptins are described further in Sectin 10 f this reprt. 36 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

53 11. THE SIX SHORT LISTED OPTIONS This Sectin describes the six shrt listed ptins in detail. Nte the Reference Case is defined in Sectin 5 and illustrated belw. Figure 14: Reference Case Optin 1 Gergetwn Crridr As illustrated in Figure 15, this ptin includes the electrificatin f the Gergetwn crridr n the Metrlinx netwrk and includes the Airprt Rail Link (ARL). All ther crridrs n the Metrlinx netwrk wuld be upgraded t the Reference Case and wuld run Tier 4 Diesel lcmtives. 37 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

54 Figure 15: Optin 1 Gergetwn frm Unin t Kitchener (including the ARL) Electrificatin f the Gergetwn crridr wuld include the fllwing features: Prvisin f verhead catenary t electrify the rute riginating in Unin Statin and terminating at the Kitchener GO Transit statin. The electrified revenue service rute length is apprximately kilmetres. The ttal electrified length is km including the distance t get t the Willwbrk maintenance facility. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Kitchener and Unin Statin. Off peak service, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Mt. Pleasant GO Transit Statin in Bramptn and Unin Statin nly. Electric Multiple Units (EMUs) in tw car train cnsists perating at 15 minute headways 17.5 hurs per day (apprx 05:00 am t 01:00 am) fr the ARL.` Midday and vernight strage wuld be at Willwbrk, Gergetwn and Kitchener with maintenance at Willwbrk. Nightly strage as well as all maintenance at Willwbrk yard. Prvisin f apprpriate clearance fr the OCS at all verhead structures. 38 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

55 Electrifying the Gergetwn crridr includes Unin Statin and will als require: the grunding f structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abvegrund fuel tanks and ther utilities within 250m f the nearest rail, as required; mdificatins t the track t ensure cmpatibility with electrificatin, including track bnding and grunding t limit induced vltages and maintain safety; mdificatins t the signal system t immunize against the effects f electrmagnetic interference; and the prvisin f additinal equipment in the current cntrl center t perate the electrificatin system. Table 6: Key Statistics fr Optin 1 Gergetwn Crridr Item Optin 1 GO Netwrk Length mi km Electrified Length 71.3 mi km Tractin Pwer Substatin 3 Switching Statins 2 Auttransfrmer Statins 3 Bridges Rebuilt 3 Bridges Rewrked 8 Ttal Bridges 11 Lcmtives Electric 17 Diesel 91 Electric Multiple Units (ARL) GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

56 11.2. Optin 2 Lakeshre East Crridr As illustrated in Figure 16, this ptin includes electrificatin f the Lakeshre crridr, east frm Bwmanville and west t Hamiltn James. The Hamiltn TH&B and St. Catharines crridrs n the Lakeshre West Line wuld nt be electrified and service n these crridrs wuld be prvided by Tier 4 diesel lcmtives. Service n all ther crridrs wuld als be prvided by Tier 4 diesel Lcmtives as per the Reference Case. Figure 16: Optin 2 Lakeshre East & West frm Bwmanville t Hamiltn James Electrificatin f the Lakeshre crridr wuld include the fllwing features: Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the rute riginating in the east at Bwmanville, thrugh Unin Statin and terminating at Hamiltn James. The electrified revenue service rute length fr the Lakeshre East prtin f the rute is apprximately 69 kilmetres and the Lakeshre West prtin is apprximately 63 kilmetres. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Unin statin and Bwmanville and Unin Statin and Hamiltn James. Off peak service wuld perate east and west ver the same rutes. Midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at a variety f lcatins depending n the clsest lcatin t the trip terminatin. These include Hamiltn TH&B, Dn Yard, Bathurst Yard, Stney Creek, Willwbrk and the East Maintenance Facility. Maintenance f the Lakeshre West trains wuld take place at Willwbrk and the Lakeshre East trains at the new East Maintenance Facility. Prvisin f apprpriate clearance fr the OCS at all verhead structures. 40 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

57 Electrifying the Lakeshre crridr includes the Unin Statin Rail Crridr and will als require: the grunding f structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abvegrund fuel tanks and ther utilities within 250m f the nearest rail, as required; mdificatins t the track t ensure cmpatibility with electrificatin, including track bnding and grunding t limit induced vltages and maintain safety; mdificatins t the signal system t immunize against the effects f electrmagnetic interference; and the prvisin f additinal equipment in the current cntrl center t perate the electrificatin system. Table 7: Key Statistics fr Optin 2 Lakeshre Crridr Item Optin 2 GO Netwrk Length mi km Electrified Length 82.3 mi km Tractin Pwer Substatin 4 Switching Statins 3 Auttransfrmer Statins 1 Bridges Rebuilt 4 Bridges Rewrked 19 Ttal Bridges 23 Lcmtives Electric 34 Diesel 74 Diesel Multiple Units (ARL) Optin 3 Gergetwn and Lakeshre Crridrs As illustrated in Figure 17, this ptin includes electrificatin f the Gergetwn Crridr and Lakeshre Crridr frm Bwmanville t Hamiltn James. The Hamiltn TH&B and St. Catharines crridrs n the Lakeshre West Line wuld nt be electrified and service n these crridrs wuld be prvided by Tier 4 diesel lcmtives. Service n all ther crridrs wuld als be prvided by Tier 4 diesel Lcmtives as per the Reference Case. 41 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

58 Figure 17: Optin 3 Gergetwn and Lakeshre Electrificatin f these 2 crridrs wuld include the fllwing features: Prvisin f verhead catenary t electrify the Gergetwn rute riginating in Unin Statin and terminating at the Kitchener GO Transit statin. The electrified revenue service rute length is apprximately kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Lakeshre East rute riginating in the east at Bwmanville, thrugh Unin Statin and terminating at Lakeshre West Hamiltn James statin. The electrified revenue service rute length fr the Lakeshre East prtin f the rute is apprximately 69 kilmetres and the Lakeshre West prtin is apprximately 63 kilmetres. Electric Multiple Units (EMUs) in tw car train cnsists perating at 15 minute headways fr the ARL service Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Kitchener and Unin Statin. Off peak service, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Mt. Pleasant GO Transit Statin in Bramptn and Unin Statin nly. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Unin statin and Bwmanville and Unin Statin and Hamiltn James. Off peak service wuld perate east and west ver the same rutes. Fr the Gergetwn Crridr, midday and vernight strage wuld be at Willwbrk and Kitchener with maintenance at Willwbrk fr the ARL and Gergetwn crridrs. 42 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

59 Fr the Lakeshre Crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at a variety f lcatins depending n the clsest lcatin t the trip terminatin fr the Lakeshre East and West crridrs. These include Hamiltn TH&B, Dn Yard, Bathurst Yard, Stney Creek, Willwbrk and the East Maintenance Facility. Maintenance f the Lakeshre West trains wuld ccur at Willwbrk and the Lakeshre East trains at the new East Maintenance Facility. Prvisin f apprpriate clearance fr the OCS at all verhead structures. Electrifying the Gergetwn and Lakeshre crridrs includes the Unin Statin Rail Crridr and will als require: the grunding f structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abvegrund fuel tanks and ther utilities within 250m f the nearest rail, as required; mdificatins t the track t ensure cmpatibility with electrificatin, including track bnding and grunding t limit induced vltages and maintain safety; mdificatins t the signal system t immunize against the effects f electrmagnetic interference; and the prvisin f additinal equipment in the current cntrl center t perate the electrificatin system. Table 8: Key Statistics fr Optin 3 Gergetwn and Lakeshre Item Optin 3 GO Netwrk Length mi km Electrified Length mi km Tractin Pwer Substatin 6 Switching Statins 4 Auttransfrmer Statins 4 Bridges Rebuilt 4 Bridges Rewrked 24 Ttal Bridges 28 Lcmtives Electric 50 Diesel 57 Electric Multiple Units (ARL) GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

60 11.4. Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre and Miltn Crridrs As illustrated in Figure 18, this ptin includes electrificatin f the Gergetwn, Lakeshre East and West Crridrs frm Bwmanville t Hamiltn James and Miltn crridrs. The Hamiltn TH& B and St. Catharines crridrs n the Lakeshre West Line wuld nt be electrified and service n these crridrs wuld be prvided by Tier 4 diesel lcmtives. Service n all ther crridrs wuld als be prvided by Tier 4 diesel Lcmtives as per the Reference Case. Figure 18: Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre and Miltn Electrificatin f these 4 crridrs wuld include the fllwing features: Prvisin f verhead catenary t electrify the Gergetwn rute riginating in Unin Statin and terminating at the Kitchener GO Transit Statin. The electrified revenue service rute length is apprximately kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Lakeshre East rute riginating in the east at Bwmanville, thrugh Unin Statin and terminating at Lakeshre West Hamiltn James statin. The electrified revenue service rute length fr the Lakeshre East prtin f the rute is apprximately 69 kilmetres and the Lakeshre West prtin is apprximately 63 kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Miltn crridr riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Miltn Statin. The electrified revenue service length fr the Miltn crridr is apprximately 50.2 kilmetres. Electric Multiple Units (EMUs) in tw car train cnsists perating at 15 minute headways fr the ARL service 44 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

61 Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Kitchener and Unin Statin. Off peak service, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Mt. Pleasant GO Transit Statin in Bramptn and Unin Statin nly. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Unin Statin and Bwmanville and Unin Statin and Hamiltn James. Off peak service wuld perate east and west ver the same rutes. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Unin Statin and Miltn Statin and ff peak, hliday and weekend service perating between Unin Statin and Meadwvale Statin. Fr the Gergetwn Crridr, midday and vernight strage wuld be at Willwbrk and Kitchener with maintenance at Willwbrk fr the ARL and Gergetwn crridrs. Fr the Lakeshre Crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at a variety f lcatins depending n the clsest lcatin t the trip terminatin fr the Lakeshre East and West Crridrs. These include Hamiltn TH&B, Dn Yard, Bathurst Yard, Stney Creek, Willwbrk and the East Maintenance Facility. Maintenance f the Lakeshre West trains wuld ccur at Willwbrk and the Lakeshre East trains at the new East Maintenance Facility. Fr the Miltn Crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at Unin and Miltn Statins. Maintenance wuld be at Willwbrk. Prvisin f apprpriate clearance fr the OCS at all verhead structures. Electrifying the Gergetwn, Lakeshre and Miltn crridrs includes the Unin Statin Rail Crridr and will als require: the grunding f structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abvegrund fuel tanks and ther utilities within 250m f the nearest rail, as required; mdificatins t the track t ensure cmpatibility with electrificatin, including track bnding and grunding t limit induced vltages and maintain safety; mdificatins t the signal system t immunize against the effects f electrmagnetic interference; and the prvisin f additinal equipment in the current cntrl center t perate the electrificatin system. 45 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

62 Table 9: Key Statistics fr Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre and Miltn Item Optin 11 GO Netwrk Length mi km Electrified Length mi km Tractin Pwer Substatin 6 Switching Statins 4 Auttransfrmer Statins 7 Bridges Rebuilt 4 Bridges Rewrked 24 Ttal Bridges 28 Lcmtives Electric 63 Diesel 45 Electric Multiple Units (ARL) Optin 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn and Barrie Crridrs As illustrated in Figure 19, this ptin includes electrificatin f the Gergetwn, Lakeshre East and West Crridrs frm Bwmanville t Hamiltn James and the Miltn and Barrie crridrs. The Hamiltn TH& B and St. Catharines crridrs n the Lakeshre West Line wuld nt be electrified and service n these crridrs wuld be prvided by Tier 4 diesel lcmtives. Service n all ther crridrs wuld als be prvided by Tier 4 diesel Lcmtives as per the Reference Case. Figure 19: Optin15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn and Barrie 46 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

63 Electrificatin f these 5 crridrs wuld include the fllwing features: Prvisin f verhead catenary t electrify the Gergetwn rute riginating in Unin Statin and terminating at the Kitchener GO Transit statin. The electrified revenue service rute length is apprximately kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Lakeshre East rute riginating in the east at Bwmanville, thrugh Unin Statin and terminating at Lakeshre West Hamiltn James statin. The electrified revenue service rute length fr the Lakeshre East prtin f the rute is apprximately 69 kilmetres and the Lakeshre West prtin is apprximately 63 kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Miltn crridr riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Miltn Statin. The electrified revenue service length fr the Miltn crridr is apprximately 50.2 kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Barrie crridr riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Allendale Statin. The electrified revenue service length fr the Barrie crridr is apprximately kilmetres. Electric Multiple Units (EMUs) in tw car train cnsists perating at 15 minute headways fr the ARL service Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Kitchener and Unin Statin. Off peak service, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Mt. Pleasant G Transit Statin in Bramptn and Unin Statin nly. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with a weekday peak service between Unin Statin and Bwmanville and Unin Statin and Hamiltn James. Off peak services wuld perate east and west ver the same rutes. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with a weekday peak service between Unin Statin and Miltn Statin and ff peak, hliday and weekend service perating between Unin Statin and Meadwvale Statin. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with a weekday peak service riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Allendale Statin. Off peak, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Unin Statin and Bradfrd. Fr the Gergetwn Crridr, midday and vernight strage wuld be at Willwbrk and Kitchener with maintenance at Willwbrk fr the ARL and Gergetwn crridrs. Fr the Lakeshre Crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at a variety f lcatins depending n the clsest lcatin t the trip terminatin fr the Lakeshre East and West Crridrs. These include Hamiltn TH&B, Dn Yard, Bathurst Yard, Stney Creek, Willwbrk and the East Maintenance Facility. Maintenance f the Lakeshre West trains wuld ccur at Willwbrk and the Lakeshre East trains at the new East Facility. Fr the Miltn Crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at Unin and Miltn Statins. Maintenance wuld be at Willwbrk. Fr the Barrie Crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at Allendale, Bradfrd and Unin Statin with maintenance ccurring at bth the Willwbrk and new East Maintenance Facility. 47 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

64 Prvisin f apprpriate clearance fr the OCS at all verhead structures. Electrifying the Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn and Barrie crridrs includes the Unin Statin Rail Crridr and will als require: the grunding f structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abvegrund fuel tanks and ther utilities within 250m f the nearest rail, as required; mdificatins t the track t ensure cmpatibility with electrificatin, including track bnding and grunding t limit induced vltages and maintain safety; mdificatins t the signal system t immunize against the effects f electrmagnetic interference; and the prvisin f additinal equipment in the current cntrl center t perate the electrificatin system. Table 10: Crridrs Key Statistics fr Optin 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn and Barrie Item Optin 15 GO Netwrk Length mi km Electrified Length mi km Tractin Pwer Substatin 7 Switching Statins 4 Auttransfrmer Statins 10 Bridges Rebuilt 4 Bridges Rewrked 30 Ttal Bridges 34 Lcmtives Electric 76 Diesel 32 Electric Multiple Units (ARL) GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

65 11.6. Optin 18 Entire Netwrk As illustrated in Figure 20, this ptin includes electrificatin f all crridrs including full electrificatin t Hamiltn TH&B as well as St. Catharines. Figure 20: Optin 18 The entire GO Transit netwrk Electrificatin f the entire GO Transit netwrk wuld include the fllwing features: Prvisin f verhead catenary t electrify the Gergetwn rute riginating in Unin Statin and terminating at the Kitchener GO Transit Statin. The electrified revenue service rute length is apprximately kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Lakeshre East rute riginating in the east at Bwmanville, thrugh Unin Statin and terminating at Lakeshre West St. Catharines Statin and including Hamiltn TH&B and Hamiltn James. The electrified revenue service rute length fr the Lakeshre East prtin f the rute is apprximately 69 kilmetres and the Lakeshre West prtin is apprximately 74.5 kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Miltn crridr riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Miltn Statin. The electrified revenue service length fr the Miltn crridr is apprximately 50.2 kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Barrie crridr riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Allendale Statin. The electrified revenue service length fr the Barrie crridr is apprximately kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Richmnd Hill crridr riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Blmingtn Statin. 49 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

66 The electrified revenue service length f the Richmnd Hill crridr is apprximately 46.1 kilmetres. Prvisin f verhead catenary and tractin pwer supply substatins t electrify the Stuffville crridr riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Linclnville Statin. The electrified revenue service length f the Stuffville crridr is apprximately 49.3 kilmetres. Electric Multiple Units (EMUs) in tw car train cnsists perating at 15 minute headways fr the ARL service Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Kitchener and Unin Statin. Off peak service, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Mt. Pleasant G Transit Statin in Bramptn and Unin Statin nly. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Unin Statin and Bwmanville and Unin Statin and Hamiltn James. Off peak service wuld perate east and west ver the same rutes. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service between Unin Statin and Miltn Statin and ff peak, hliday and weekend service perating between Unin Statin and Meadwvale Statin. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Allendale Statin fr the Barrie crridr. Off peak, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Unin Statin and Bradfrd. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Blmingtn Statin fr weekday peak service n the Richmnd Hill crridr. Off peak, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Unin Statin and Richmnd Hill. Electric lcmtives pulling 10 bi level cars with weekday peak service riginating at Unin Statin and terminating at Linclnville Statin fr Stuffville crridr. Off peak, weekend and hliday service wuld perate between Unin Statin and Munt Jy Statin. Fr the Gergetwn Crridr, midday and vernight strage wuld be at Willwbrk and Kitchener with maintenance at Willwbrk fr the ARL and Gergetwn crridrs. Fr the Lakeshre Crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at a variety f lcatins depending n the clsest lcatin t the trip terminatin fr the Lakeshre East and West Crridrs. These include Hamiltn TH&B, Dn Yard, Bathurst Yard, Stney Creek, Willwbrk and the East Maintenance Facility. Maintenance f the Lakeshre West trains wuld ccur at Willwbrk and the Lakeshre East trains at the new East Facility. Fr the Miltn crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at Unin and Miltn Statins. Maintenance wuld be at Willwbrk. Fr the Barrie crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at Allendale, Bradfrd and Unin Statin with maintenance ccurring at bth the Willwbrk and new East Facility. 50 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

67 Fr the Richmnd Hill crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at the Bethesda, and Dn Yards as well as Unin Statin. Maintenance wuld ccur at bth Willwbrk and the new East Facility. Fr the Stuffville crridr, midday and vernight layvers wuld ccur at the Linclnville and Unin Statins. Maintenance wuld ccur at bth Willwbrk and the new East Facility. Prvisin f apprpriate clearance fr the OCS at all verhead structures. Electrifying the entire GO Transit rail netwrk includes the Unin Statin Rail Crridr and will als require: the grunding f structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abvegrund fuel tanks and ther utilities within 250m f the nearest rail, as required; mdificatins t the track t ensure cmpatibility with electrificatin, including track bnding and grunding t limit induced vltages and maintain safety; mdificatins t the signal system t immunize against the effects f electrmagnetic interference; and the prvisin f additinal equipment in the current cntrl center t perate the electrificatin system. Table 11: Key Statistics fr Optin 18 Entire Netwrk Item Optin 18 GO Netwrk Length mi km Electrified Length mi km Tractin Pwer Substatin 7 Switching Statins 4 Auttransfrmer Statins 17 Bridges Rebuilt* 11 Bridges Rewrked 41 Ttal Bridges 52 Lcmtives Electric 107 Diesel 0 Electric Multiple Units (ARL) 12 * Includes the Hunter Street Tunnel 12. MULTIPLE CATEGORY EVALUATION FINDINGS & CONCLUSIONS Based n the findings f the high level evaluatin, it was cncluded that Electric Lcmtive trains wuld be the technlgy t be taken frward t the detailed evaluatin stage f this Electrificatin Study. In the case f the Airprt Rail Link, it is assumed that the initial deplyment 51 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

68 f Diesel Multiple Units (DMUs) will be cnverted t by Electric Multiple Units (EMUs) if the Gergetwn line is electrified either in part r in full. This sectin presents a detailed analysis n the shrt list f 6 netwrk ptins infrmed by the high level evaluatin f sectins f the netwrk. These six netwrk ptins are evaluated using the Multiple Categry Evaluatin (MCE) methdlgy, systematically cmparing the impacts n csts, users, envirnment, ecnmy and cmmunity, and illustrating the trade ffs amng the ften cnflicting criteria. A detailed evaluatin f each subcategry frm the MCE was carried ut and the assessment f the ptins relative t the Reference Case is presented in the MCE Summary Table, Table 17 at the end f this sectin. The detailed MCE Findings and Cnclusins are fund in Appendix 9 f this reprt Envirnment and Health Trains prpelled by electricity emit less Greenhuse Gases (GHG) and Critical Air Cntaminant (CAC) than the emissin standards f the Tier 4 diesel electric lcmtive. Hwever, as shwn in Figure 21, GO Transit Rail s cntributin t GHG is very small cmpared t the verall emissins frm transprtatin in Ontari. Figure 21: Current Annual GHG Emissins in GTHA 52 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

69 By electrifying larger sectins f the GO Transit Rail netwrk, greater GHG reductins can be achieved electrifying the entire netwrk wuld deliver a 94% reductin f GO Transit Rail s future cntributin t GHG emissins, althugh this reductin wuld nly be a small fractin (0.32%) f the verall regin s emissins. Nevertheless, all ptins with the exceptin f Optin 1 (the electrificatin f the Gergetwn line) meet r exceed the Big Mve s Reginal Transprtatin Plan strategic target f reducing GHG emissins per passenger by 25%. Electric trains d nt emit CAC frm the lcmtives, but rather at the surce f electricity generatin. The impacts f CAC n the lcal cmmunity and adjacent sensitive receptrs were cnsidered, and the mre the netwrk is electrified, the mre peple benefit frm imprved air quality. Hwever, analysis f the cncentratins f air cntaminants such as particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), NO x and SO x with Tier 4 Diesel lcmtives shws that the impact f the Reference Case service levels wuld already be well belw the stringent Wrld Health Organizatin standards. As mre crridrs are electrified, the lcal air quality imprves, but the health benefit assciated with electrificatin is likely t be relatively small. The study als investigated the ptential impact f electrmagnetic fields (EMF) frm verhead pwer lines and OCS. There are numerus and incnclusive epidemilgical studies n this tpic and there is n cnsistent relatinship between electrmagnetic fields and health issues. While perating an electrified system has increased safety risks fr trespassers and wrkers (i.e. risks such as arching frm metal structures), this can be mitigated by the apprpriate signage, prtectin and educatin as demnstrated in systems arund the wrld. There is a slight reductin in nise and vibratin due t electric lcmtives being slightly quieter. Hwever, the differences in nise levels between diesel and electric lcmtive trains wuld nt generally be perceivable because the nise levels due t the caches are cmmn t bth train sets. The assessment f each ptin under the Envirnmental and Health cnsideratins is presented in the MCE summary table, Table 17 at the end f this sectin User Benefits/Quality f Life Electric lcmtives prduce jurney time savings because f higher perfrmance characteristics meaning that they accelerate and decelerate mre rapidly. Fr example, the time savings using an electric lcmtive train frm Hamiltn t Unin statin wuld save passengers 7 minutes. The mre crridrs electrified, the greater the time saving benefits, with Optin 18 delivering almst $700m in 2010 present values in user benefits ver the evaluatin perid. Figure 22 breaks dwn the user jurney time savings by crridr. 53 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

70 Figure 22: Ttal User Jurney Time Savings by Crridr ($m 2010 Present Values) Almst half f the ttal jurney time benefits can be delivered thrugh the electrificatin f the Lakeshre East and West crridrs (Optin 2), as it has the highest ridership. As illustrated in Figure 23, the average jurney time savings per passengers n electrified crridrs are between 2 t 3 minutes, mdestly increasing the verall transprtatin efficiency f the GO Transit Rail netwrk. It shuld als be nted that time savings ffered by electric lcmtives d nt ffer the mre significant change in jurney time imprvements ffered by EMUs. The jurney time savings are expected t result in an increase in GO s ridership by arund 4%, r mre than 10,000 additinal GO Transit Rail jurneys per day by As illustrated in Figure 23, the faster electric trains will encurage mdal shift frm car t GO Transit Rail a fully electrified netwrk is expected t remve 1.6 millin aut trips per annum by 2031, thereby slightly increasing the verall transit mde share f the regin. The reduced vehicle kilmetres travelled wuld result in highway decngestin fr nn users and a reductin in vehicle perating csts and cllisin csts. Initially, the reliability f services is likely t be lwer when new electric trains are intrduced. As initial technical issues are reslved, electric lcmtive trains are typically mre reliable than diesel lcmtive trains in the lnger term, but verall the reliability benefits t passengers are nt significant given that failures due t lcmtives are relatively infrequent. Electrificatin des nt add any new statins r increase the service levels / capacity abve the Reference Case and therefre it des nt materially change the access t the transit system r enhance cmfrt/capacity t passengers. The assessment f each ptin under the User Benefits/ Quality f Life cnsideratins is presented in the MCE summary table, Table 17 at the end f this sectin. 54 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

71 Figure 23: Average Jurney Time Savings per Passenger Scial and Cmmunity Frm the scial cmmunity perspective, all six ptins will have residents, and users f cmmunity, institutinal and recreatin features within the znes f influence experiencing sme negative scial cmmunity impacts due t visual impacts f the Overhead Cntact System (OCS), substatins and auttransfrmers. These impacts can be particularly adverse in sectins f each crridr, althugh there are ways t partially mitigate these impacts. In additin, the cnstructin impacts primarily dust and nise will als have a negative impact n the scial cmmunity. The need fr grunding within 250m f the nearest rail, as required, fr structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abve grund fuel tanks and ther utilities, may negatively interfere with and impact adjacent prperties. The assessment f each ptin under the Scial and Cmmunity cnsideratins is presented in the MCE summary table, Table 17 at the end f this sectin. 55 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

72 12.4. Ecnmic The Reference Case presents a pint in time which was established fr the purpses f cmparisn withut burdening Electrificatin with the prpsed develpment and service plans that are planned regardless f the technlgy. The majr factrs in the ecnmic analysis include the life cycle (30 year) csts f changing the technlgy. This includes the incremental difference between the capital csts f the Tier 4 diesel versus the electric lcmtive. The lifecycle cst benefit analysis undertaken has suggested that as mre crridrs are electrified, mre transprtatin benefits can be delivered. The results are presented in Table 12. Table 12: Detailed 30 Year Life Cycle Transprtatin Appraisal f Electric Lcmtive Trains (All Figures in $m Discunted at 5% p.a. t 2010 Present Values) Electric Lcmtives: Transprtatin Appraisal Impacts (All figures in $m and Discunted at 5% p.a. t 2010 Present Values) Optin 1 Optin 2 Optin 3 Optin 11 Optin 15 Optin 18 Gergetwn + ARL Lakeshre: Hamiltn James t Bwmanville Optin 1+2 Optin 3 plus Miltn Optin 11 plus Barrie Full Netwrk Infrastructure Capital Csts ,089 1,251 1,584 2,369 Rlling Stck Capital Csts Operatins & Maintenance Csts Incremental Revenues TOTAL PRESENT VALUE COSTS ,204 2,106 Jurney Time Saving Benefits Reliability Benefits Aut Cst Savings TOTAL PRESENT VALUE BENEFITS ,058 Net Present Value (NPV) ,048 BENEFIT COST RATIO (BCR) In terms f cst effectiveness, Optin 2 (Lakeshre) prvides the highest value fr mney in terms f delivering transprtatin benefits with a Benefit Cst Rati (BCR) f 1.1:1, fllwed by Optin 3 (Lakeshre, Gergetwn) and Optin 11 (Lakeshre, Gergetwn, Miltn), bth at 0.9:1. Fr every dllar invested, there is apprximately a dllar in benefits in return ver the lifecycle. These ptins perfrm better primarily because they are the mst intensively used crridrs mre passengers benefit frm time savings, while a high level f service als gives significant perating and maintenance cst savings. The remaining ptins (1, 15 and 18) ffer ntably lwer value fr mney in delivering transprtatin benefits. Optin 1 (Gergetwn) perfrms prly with a BCR f 0.4:1 because electrifying the Gergetwn line alne des nt have the critical mass in transprtatin benefits t ffset the initial capital expenditure f electrifying large sectins f the Unin Statin Rail 56 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

73 Crridr. T electrify the Airprt Rail Link alne wuld have a lwer BCR because it wuld incur mst f the infrastructure csts but have limited jurney time savings cmpared t Optin 1 in its entirety. Optins 15 and 18 invlve electrifying crridrs that are nt as intensively used; they als require the premature replacement f existing diesel lcmtives, meaning that they are nt as cst effective. In terms f delivering GHG reductins, Optin 2 is the mst cst effective, fllwed by Optin 3 and 11, and the same rder hlds when the cst per new rider is cnsidered. As there are limited health benefits assciated with CAC reductins, a cst effectiveness measure fr each CAC chemical has nt been emplyed in the evaluatin, althugh the relative perfrmance f each ptin is unlikely t be different t the rder based n the cst effectiveness f GHG reductins. Electrifying the GO Transit Rail netwrk is expected t generate ecnmic benefits during cnstructin (due t cnstructin emplyment) and in peratin (due t faster cmmutes, less cngestin), which in turn increase the ecnmic utput f the regin. Optin 2 als delivers the mst lng term ecnmic benefits per capital invested. Due t faster jurney times and slightly imprved air quality, nise and vibratin, prperty prices alng the electrified rail crridr culd benefit frm a slight increase in value, althugh sme prperties immediately verlking the OCS may result in a decrease in value, depending n site specific cnditins. The assessment f each ptin under the Ecnmic cnsideratins is presented in the MCE summary table, Table 17 at the end f this sectin Financial The incremental capital cst f electrifying the entire GO Transit Rail netwrk is apprximately $4.0 billin in 2010 prices (excluding inflatin). This includes the infrastructure capital csts (primarily cmprising f site enabling wrks and pwer system wrks), shwn in Table 13 and rlling stck csts, shwn in Table 14. These high level csts were estimated in advance f any detailed design wrk and in rder t capture the variability in ptential cst at this early stage f the prject, the infrastructure capital cst cmpnents include a cntingency range f 35 55% depending n the level f risk cnsidered. It shuld be nted that the capital cst estimate captures nly the additinal requirements t perate electric trains ver and abve the Reference Case. It des nt include ther infrastructure and rlling stck requirements t meet the Reference Case level f service. Ttal incremental capital cst estimates (infrastructure and rlling stck) are shwn in Table 15. This incremental capital cst is partially ff set by the perating and maintenance cst savings f the electric lcmtive. Electric trains prvide additinal revenues due t an increased demand frm transit time savings, and as a result all ptins reduce the net annual perating csts (and therefre subsidy). Electrifying the entire netwrk wuld result in almst $79m savings per annum by 2031 in real 2010 prices (see Table14), althugh a significant prprtin f these cst savings wuld nly materialize n the assumptin that the price f diesel increases at twice the rate f electricity. 57 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

74 Table 13: Ttal Incremental Infrastructure Capital Csts by Optin ($m 2010 prices) Optin Infrastructure Capital Cst Estimate ($ millin in 2010 prices) Ttal Infrastructure Capital Cst Estimate Range Catenary System Pwer Supply System Maintenance & Layver Facilities, vehicles Overhead structures rewrk Infrastructure rewrk csts Sitewrk & special cnditins Prfessinal services Sub Ttal cst Ttal (35 % Cntingency) Ttal (55 % Cntingency) OPTION 1 Gergetwn $158 $71 $54 $16 $46 $135 $37 $517 $699 t $802 OPTION 2 Lakeshre $264 $119 $72 $25 $46 $182 $48 $755 $1,019 t $1,170 OPTION 3 Gergetwn & Lakeshre $365 $165 $88 $27 $57 $287 $71 $1,060 $1,431 t $1,643 OPTION 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn OPTION 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn & Barrie $415 $187 $95 $27 $70 $335 $82 $1,210 $1,633 t $1,875 $508 $229 $109 $29 $98 $437 $107 $1,517 $2,047 t $2,351 OPTION 18 Gergetwn $615 $277 $136 $312 $126 $576 $193 $2,236 $3,019 t $3, GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

75 Table 14: Ttal Incremental Rlling Stck Capital Csts by Optin ($m 2010 prices) Optin Incremental Rlling Stck Capital Csts ($m 2010 prices) Optin 1 Gergetwn 84 Optin 2 Lakeshre 123 Optin 3 Gergetwn & Lakeshre 188 Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre & Miltn 288 Optin 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn & Barrie 421 Optin 18 Entire Netwrk 736 Table 15: Ttal Capital Cst Estimate Range (Infrastructure and Rlling Stck) Optin Ttal Capital Cst Estimate Range (Infrastructure and Rlling Stck) ($m 2010 prices) OPTION 1 Gergetwn $783 t $886 OPTION 2 Lakeshre $1,142 t $1,293 OPTION 3 Gergetwn & Lakeshre $1,619 t $1,831 OPTION 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn OPTION 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn & Barrie $1,921 t $2,163 $2,468 t $2,772 OPTION 18 Entire Netwrk $3,755 t $4, GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

76 Table 16: Annual Operating and Maintenance Cst Savings by Optin ($m 2010 prices) Optin Annual Operating and Maintenance Csts Savings ($m 2010 prices) Annual Operating and Maintenance Cst Savings in 2021 with real inflatin Annual Operating and Maintenance Cst Savings in 2031 with real inflatin Optin 1 Gergetwn Optin 2 Lakeshre Optin 3 Gergetwn & Lakeshre Optin 11 Gergetwn, Lakeshre & Miltn Optin 15 Gergetwn, Lakeshre, Miltn & Barrie Optin 18 Entire Netwrk The assessment f each ptin under the Financial cnsideratins is presented in the MCE summary table, Table 17 at the end f this sectin Deliverability The electrificatin f an peratinal railway netwrk will pse cnstructin challenges in rder t reduce the impact t transit users, ther passenger and freight service peratrs and the lcal cmmunity. It is anticipated that the cnstructin wrks wuld nt require clsures t the railways during the day, while freight services running vernight may use diverted rutes where pssible t minimize disruptin. Hwever, sme disruptin must be expected. All ptins invlve the electrificatin f sectins f track nt currently wned by GO, which means that further investigatins n the acceptance f CN and CP shuld be established. The cnstructin techniques themselves are nt especially challenging and all ptins are buildable, althugh the recnstructin f the tunnel appraching Hamiltn TH+B culd present engineering and disruptin issues fr Optin 18. The assessment f each ptin under the Deliverability cnsideratins is presented in the MCE summary table, Table 17 at the end f this sectin. 60 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

77 12.7. Risk and Uncertainties The risks assciated with electrificatin were cnsidered extensively and in mst cases these have been factred int the csting r ther parts f the assessment. The key risks wuld be that ther peratrs such as CN and CP may set exacting requirements fr electrifying crridrs wned by them which make electrificatin n lnger justified. This affects all ptins t a certain extent, and detailed discussins with CN and CP wuld be required if the prject was t be taken frward t the next stage f design and develpment. The transprtatin Benefit Cst Rati (BCR) takes int accunt the mnetized impacts ver the prject life cycle, and this depends n a number f key assumptins, including the deliverability f the Reference Case. A wide range f sensitivity tests were cnducted, including sensitivity t assumptins regarding infrastructure capital csts, rlling stck capital csts, perating and maintenance csts, energy cst inflatin, and ridership/demand frecasts. Scenaris tested include alternative service levels and ptimized numbers f rlling stck. The sensitivity and scenari tests cncluded that while there is ptentially a wide range f BCRs depending n varius assumptins, verall, the relative perfrmance f each ptin still hlds. Optin 2 (Lakeshre) cnsistently emerges as the best perfrming ptin while Optin 3 (Lakeshre and Gergetwn) and Optin 11 (Lakeshre, Gergetwn and Miltn) remain very similar in BCR terms relative t ne anther. Having cnsidered the range f likely uncertainties, Optin 1 (Gergetwn) and Optin 18 (Entire Netwrk) are unlikely t deliver a BCR greater than 1:1, and the justificatin f pursuing thse ptins in the timeframe f this Study wuld have t be supprted by ther nn mnetized benefits. Figure 24 summarizes the range f BCRs given the plausible utcmes f the factrs affecting the assessment. It shws that when all the upsides and dwnsides are cnsidered tgether as defined abve, the ptential range f BCRs can be quite significant. As a prxy fr the likelihd f the BCR being in a particular range, the darker green shades represent the zne where there is a higher cnfidence level f the BCR being in the range. It shws that Optin 2 verall is likely t have a BCR abve 1:1 with the pssibility f being significantly higher, while Optins 3 and 11 bth perfrm similarly and have a fair chance f delivering a BCR higher than 1:1. Optins 1 and 18 are nt expected t yield a BCR greater than unity under the current evaluatin framewrk with the range f scenaris tested. 61 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

78 Figure 24: Sensitivity and Scenari Tests Range f BCRs 62 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

79 SUMMARY OF KEY MULTIPLE CATEGORY EVALUATION FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ENVIRONMENT AND HEALTH Electric trains d nt emit Greenhuse Gases (GHG) frm the lcmtives, but rather at the surce f electricity generatin. Trains prpelled by electricity emit less GHG than diesel trains. By electrifying larger sectins f the GO Transit rail netwrk, greater GHG reductins can be achieved. Electrifying the entire netwrk wuld deliver a 94% reductin in GO Transit s future GHG emissins, althugh this reductin wuld nly be a small fractin (0.32%) f the verall regin s emissins. Electric trains d nt emit Critical Air Cntaminants (CAC) frm the lcmtives, but rather at the surce f electricity generatin. The mre the netwrk is electrified, the mre peple benefit frm the imprved air quality. Hwever, analysis f the cncentratins f air cntaminants such as particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), NO x and SO x with Tier 4 Diesel lcmtives shws that the impact f the Reference Case service levels wuld already be well belw the stringent Wrld Health Organizatin standards. As mre crridrs are electrified, the lcal air quality imprves, but the health benefit assciated with electrificatin is likely t be marginal. There are als reginal and lcal air quality imprvements due t electrificatin, but as GO Transit has already cmmitted t perating diesel lcmtives which are cmpliant with Tier 4 emissin standards in the medium term hrizn, the incremental impact f electrificatin, in the cntext f health, is relatively mdest. There are numerus and incnclusive epidemilgical studies n electrmagnetic fields (EMF) frm verhead pwer lines and OCS; there is n cnsistent relatinship between electrmagnetic fields and health issues. There is a slight reductin in nise and vibratin due t electric lcmtives being slightly quieter than diesel. Hwever, the differences in nise levels between diesel and electric lcmtive trains wuld nt generally be perceivable due t the nise levels f the caches which are cmmn t bth train sets. USER BENEFITS/QUALITY OF LIFE Due t faster acceleratin and deceleratin, jurney time savings can be achieved with electric lcmtives as cmpared t diesel lcmtives. Depending n the ptin, the average time saving per passenger trip frm electrificatin wuld be between 2.4 and 2.8 minutes. The greatest jurney time benefits are realized frm electrifying Lakeshre (due t mst ridership) fllwed by Gergetwn. The least benefits wuld result frm electrifying Richmnd Hill (due t line speeds and track curvature that restrict ptential transit time savings). Electric lcmtive trains are typically mre reliable than diesel lcmtive trains, but verall the reliability benefits t passengers are nt significant given that failures due t engine breakdwns are relatively infrequent. 63 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

80 SOCIAL AND COMMUNITY The Gergetwn Crridr has the mst peple living clsest t the crridr and its electrificatin may prvide the greatest impacts and benefits althugh the benefits are mdest. Overhead catenaries, substatins and auttransfrmer statins are likely t result in negative visual impacts. The need fr grunding within 250m f the nearest rail, as required, fr structures, buildings, statin platfrms, fencing, pipelines, abve grund fuel tanks and ther utilities, may negatively interfere with and impact adjacent prperties. ECONOMIC Jurney time savings translate t benefits t users and imprve the ecnmic cmpetitiveness f the regin. Electrifying the GO Transit Rail netwrk is expected t generate emplyment during cnstructin and in peratin which in turn increases the ecnmic utput f the regin. Due t faster jurney times and slightly imprved air quality, nise and vibratin, prperty prices alng the electrified rail crridr culd benefit frm a slight increase in value, althugh sme prperties immediately verlking the verhead catenary system may result in a decrease in value, depending n site specific cnditins. FINANCIAL Capital Csts Electrificatin f any ptin wuld invlve a significant capital investment, with incremental capital cst estimates ranging frm abut $900 millin fr the electrificatin f the Gergetwn line nly (Optin 1) t ver $4 billin fr the electrificatin f the entire netwrk. Electrificatin f Lakeshre and Gergetwn tgether is ntably lwer than the sum f the individual parts because when bth are electrified, there are cst synergies. Operating and Maintenance Csts The cst f energy prvided by diesel fuel is greater than the cst f energy derived frm an electrical system, and cst f diesel fuel is expected t increase at a greater rate than electricity. There are significant uncertainties ver cst f electricity and diesel in the future. Electric Lcmtives are less expensive t maintain than diesel lcmtives. Annual perating and maintenance cst savings are estimated at abut $7 millin fr the electrificatin f the Gergetwn Crridr nly (Optin 1) and $53 millin fr the electrificatin f the entire netwrk (ptin 18), 2021 values with real inflatin. 64 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

81 Revenue Faster acceleratin and deceleratin f electric trains reduce jurney times which attract additinal riders and generate increased farebx revenue. DELIVERABILITY Ownership Electrificatin wuld be easier t implement n GO Transit wned crridrs as these are expected t require fewer negtiatins. Electrificatin f freight crridrs wuld need t be negtiated with CN and CP. Bridge Replacements Eleven bridge replacements wuld be required t electrify the entire netwrk. Of these, three are needed n the Gergetwn crridr and fur are needed fr Lakeshre. Reference Case There is a need t cnsider the phasing and crdinatin f the reference case infrastructure required t deliver the increased service with the electrificatin wrk. OVERALL CONCLUSION There are transprtatin and ecnmic benefits t electrificatin. There are als small envirnmental, scial and cmmunity benefits. Health benefits are expected t be marginal. Electrificatin f any ptin wuld invlve a significant capital investment, but wuld result in sme peratins and maintenance cst savings. Of the ptins cnsidered, electrifying the Lakeshre crridr between Bwmanville and Hamiltn James (Optin 2) is the mst cst effective ptin in delivering these benefits, while the inclusin f the Gergetwn (Optin 3) and Miltn crridrs (Optin 11) delivers higher levels f benefits withut significantly reducing the cst effectiveness f implementing thse ptins. The transprtatin Benefit Cst Rati (BCR) takes int accunt the mnetized benefits and csts ver the prject life cycle, and depends n a number f key assumptins. A wide range f sensitivity tests were cnducted n these assumptins, including infrastructure capital csts, rlling stck capital csts, perating and maintenance csts, energy cst inflatin, and ridership/demand frecasts. The results f the sensitivity analysis indicated that the BCR f each ptin was: relatively sensitive t the infrastructure capital csts, incremental O&M cst savings and energy cst inflatin assumptins; mderately sensitive t ridership/demand frecasts; and relatively insensitive t incremental rlling stck capital csts. 65 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

82 The sensitivity tests als indicated that while each ptin s BCR culd vary widely depending n the varius assumptins, the relative perfrmance f each ptin still held: Optin 2 (Lakeshre) cnsistently emerged as the best perfrming ptin, with a BCR likely t be abve 1:1 and pssibly significantly higher; Optin 3 (Lakeshre and Gergetwn) and Optin 11 (Lakeshre, Gergetwn and Miltn) remained very similar in BCR terms relative t ne anther, with a fair chance f delivering a BCR higher than 1:1; Optins 1 and 18 did nt yield a BCR greater than ne under the current evaluatin framewrk and the range f sensitivities tested. 66 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

83 Table 17: Multiple Categry Evaluatin Summary Table Strng Psitive Mderate Psitive Slight Psitive Impact Scale Neutral/N Impact Slight Negative Mderate Negative Strng Negative Categry Sub Categry Measure Envirnmental and Health User Benefits / Quality f Life Optin 1 Optin 2 Optin 3 Optin 11 Optin 15 Optin 18 Gergetwn Lakeshre (excl.th+b/st Cat) Lakeshre* + Gergetwn Lakeshre*, Gergetwn, Miltn Lakeshre*, Gergetwn, Miltn, Barrie All Crridrs (incl. TH+B and St Cat) Reginal Greenhuse Gases Reductins Qualitative assessment based n the Greenhuse Gas Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive verall impact n climate change and Climate Percentage reductin in GO Transit Rail's ttal GHG cntributins (nte: excludes Change 15% 40% 55% 64% 78% 94% mdal shift emissin reductins) Reginal Air Reginal Air Quality Qualitative assessment based n reduced CACs emitted by Quality GO Transit Rail t the regin Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Lcal Air Quality Lcal Air Quality Qualitative Assessment based n the impact n reduced CAC Mderate Mderate Mderate Mderate Slight Psitive Slight Psitive and the ppulatin wh benefit frm it Psitive Psitive Psitive Psitive Value f Health Benefits Based n reductin f GO Transit Rail's cntributin t reginal smg ($m per annum 2010 prices) Physical Fitness Qualitative assessment based n the number f additinal transit users Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Other Health Electr Magnetic Fields (EMF) Qualitative assessment based n guidelines by Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N the Institute f Electrical & Electrnics Engineers Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Qualitative assessment based n the change in safety hazard f the railway netwrk after mitigatin measures are in place Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Nise Qualitative assessment based n the change in nise levels and the Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Nise and ppulatin wh benefit frm it Impact Impact Impact Impact Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Vibratin Vibratin Qualitative assessment based n the change in vibratin levels and Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N the ppulatin wh benefit frm it Impact Impact Impact Impact Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Terrestrial Qualitative assessment based n the impacts twards the terrestrial ecsystem's Slight Negative Slight Negative Ecsystem natural heritage Slight Negative Slight Negative Slight Negative Slight Negative Qualitative assessment based n the impacts twards the aquatic ecsystems Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Aquatic Ecsystem natural heritage Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Slight Negative Effect n Parks / Qualitative assessment based n the likely impacts twards parks and pen Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Public Open Space spaces used by the lcal cmmunity Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Average Jurney Time Saving f Electric Train User (mins per passenger) Ttal Jurney Time Saving ($m Present Value 2010 prices discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) Transprtatin Jurney time benefits fr highway users ($m Present Value 2010 prices Efficiency discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) Reductin in Aut perating csts ($m Present Value 2010 prices discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) Reductin in vehicle cllisins ($m Present Value 2010 prices discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) Reliability Passenger Reliability Benefits ($m Present Value 2010 prices discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) Transit Netwrk/ Qualitative assessment based n the imprvement f accessibility f transit Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N Neutral/N 67 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

84 Categry Sub Categry Measure Optin 1 Optin 2 Optin 3 Optin 11 Optin 15 Optin 18 Gergetwn Lakeshre (excl.th+b/st Cat) Lakeshre* + Gergetwn Lakeshre*, Gergetwn, Miltn Lakeshre*, Gergetwn, Miltn, Barrie All Crridrs (incl. TH+B and St Cat) System Access Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Cmfrt and Expandability Qualitative assessment based n the change in crwding levels n the trains and GO's ability t expand capacity accrdingly Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Neutral/N Impact Land Use Qualitative assessment based n hw imprved transit can help shape Scial Integratin cmmunities and link up key activity centres Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Cmmunity Scial and Qualitative assessment based n the perceived impacts twards the lcal Mderate Mderate Mderate Mderate Mderate Slight Negative Cmmunity cmmunities Negative Negative Negative Negative Negative Transprtatin Benefit:Cst Rati (BCR) 0.4 :1 1.1 :1 0.9 :1 0.9 :1 0.8 :1 0.5 :1 Cst per New Rider in 2031 ($m Capex/new daily passenger) Cst Effectiveness Tnnes f GHG saved (frm technlgy and mdal shift) per annum per $10m capital cst 670 1,220 1,170 1,140 1, Lng Term Ecnmic (GDP+Wages) PV Benefits per $10m capital cst Ecnmic Land Use and Qualitative assessment based n the influence n land use and ptential fr Prperty Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive Slight Psitive develpment Develpment Prperty / Land Qualitative assessment based n the prperty/land required t implement the Slight Negative Slight Negative Slight Negative Slight Negative Slight Negative Slight Negative Take ptin Wider Ecnmic Incremental GDP and wages due t cnstructin ($m Real 2010 prices) ,060 1,210 1,850 Impacts During Cnstructin Number f reginal jbs created due t cnstructin (Emplyment years) 2,100 3,500 2,400 3,800 3,600 5,800 4,500 6,800 5,200 8,200 9,700 14,800 Incremental GDP and wages in the lng term due t imprved transit times ($ Wider Ecnmic per annum in 2031) Impacts During Number f reginal jbs in the lng term due t imprved transit times Operatins ,000 (Emplyment years in 2031) Taxes Effect/increased prvincial and federal taxes in 2031 ($m per annum) Incremental Capital Cst ($m 2010 prices, i.e. excluding inflatin) 790 1,160 1,660 1,980 2,570 3,950 Capital Cst Incremental Capital Cst ($m Present Value 2010 prices discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) ,230 1,460 1,890 2,910 Ttal Life Cycle Life Cycle Present Value Cst ($m Present Value 2010 prices discunted at 5% Cst p.a. ver 30 years) ,200 2,110 Financial Incremental Operating and Maintenance Cst ($m Present Value 2010 prices Operating Cst discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) Ttal Revenues Incremental revenues f the transit netwrk ($m Present Value 2010 prices discunted at 5% p.a. ver 30 years) Operating Sustainability Reductin in Operating Subsidy in 2031 ($m Real 2010 prices per annum) Deliverability Cnstructability Qualitative assessment f the cnstructin cnstraints, techniques and impacts Mderate Mderate Mderate Slight Negative t transit users Negative Negative Negative Strng Negative Strng Negative Acceptability Qualitative assessment f public and stakehlder (wner and peratr) Mderate Mderate Mderate Slight Negative acceptance f each ptin Negative Negative Negative Strng Negative Strng Negative 68 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

85 13. ELECTRIFICATION OPTIONS IMPLEMENTATION Intrductin The implementatin f the Electrificatin Optins n the existing GO Transit netwrk that is an perating railway presents a number f challenges. Each ptin has been cnsidered with regard t the assumptins listed belw and the infrmatin gathered during the Baselining exercise as presented in Appendix 3 f this reprt Key Assumptins The fllwing key assumptins have been made when cnsidering the implementatin f each ptin. Reference case infrastructure: It is assumed that the infrastructure cnstructin wrk that is planned in the reference case will have been cmpleted befre any electrificatin cnstructin wrk takes place. It is als assumed that the increases in the service levels prpsed in the Reference Case will be perating whilst the electrificatin cnstructin wrk is taking place. Timing: Fr each ptin the sequencing f each sectin has been carefully cnsidered taking int accunt the ptential disruptin t the GO Transit service. It is assumed that up t 2 cnstructin frnts wuld be feasible at any ne time. Availability f track: In discussins with GO Transit it was agreed that the access t the track fr verhead wrking wuld be restricted t nn service perids f peratin, and that limited access fr wrking adjacent t the track such as fundatin installatin r utility diversins wuld be permitted where the number f tracks allws wrking n ne track with a flagging peratin cntrlling the ther tracks. Unin Statin: The current refurbishment f Unin Statin is assumed t have been cmpleted with sufficient rm having been allwed vertically fr the installatin f the ver head catenary system. Examinatin f the available drawings suggests that there is sufficient rm fr an verhead catenary system t be installed, but a detailed survey and design is required t cnfirm this assumptin. It is assumed that sufficient wrking space and access wuld be allwed within Unin Statin trainshed during the peratinal perids f the GO Transit service t allw grunding wrk t be carried ut. Installatin f the electrical system wuld be carried ut when service levels permit, r during nn wrking hurs. It is assumed that the issues relating t heritage and cnservatin have been discussed during the Envirnmental Assessment f the current refurbishment, and that there are n unfreseen restrictins. ARL: The ARL service is assumed t be fully peratinal t the timetable prpsed and that n restrictins t the service will be allwed. Wrk will be carried ut during nn service perids, and n adjacent tracks as permitted. The design f the equipment t be installed n the elevated sectins f the ARL spur t the Airprt will require crdinatin and agreement frm GTAA. It is assumed that preliminary agreement will have been btained during the cnstructin f the spur, and that the supprt details incrprated during the spur cnstructin wuld be available t the design team fr electrificatin. 69 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

86 Maintenance Facilities: It is assumed that the prpsed new maintenance facility at Whitby wuld be fully functinal and equipped fr diesel train peratin, but cnstructed t accmmdate the future prvisin f electrificatin including all grunding within the building, the necessary clearances fr OCS, the prvisin f verhead crainage that can accmmdate r be mdified t accmmdate the OCS within the building and the space required fr the installatin f the specific maintenance equipment required by the electric lcmtives. The cnversin f the maintenance facilities varies fr each ptin and assumes that with the exceptin f Optin 2 Lakeshre the electric GO Transit Trains and ARL trains wuld be serviced at Willwbrk, and then as the electrificatin reaches the East yard at Whitby it wuld be cnverted and used as the service levels increase. The decmmissining f any layver equipment and diesel refuelling is assumed t take place nly in Optin 18, when the diesel service is phased ut. The electric trains wuld be shunted in and ut f the maintenance shed at Willwbrk by a cnverted existing diesel lcmtive, and that this wuld be replaced by a new smaller mre efficient diesel lcmtive in ptin 18 as all the existing diesel lcmtives are phased ut. Wrking Hurs: The wrking hurs fr cnstructin are limited t nn service hurs, restricted flagged wrking n crridrs where the number f tracks allws, and a limited number f planned track ccupancies, specifically fr activities such as the replacement r jacking f verhead structures. Reference Case service levels: The Reference Case increases the frequency f trains n each crridr t 2 way all day service which significantly reduces the available wrking time. It is assumed that planned track ccupancy wuld be allwed and apprved by the wners f the track and the perating cmpanies when required t allw efficient delivery f the electrificatin cntracts. Envirnmental Assessments: As part f the preliminary design fr each ptin an Envirnmental Assessment will be carried ut. Where the ptin invlves mre than 2 crridrs, a series f submissins wuld be made as the prject prgresses. This is shwn n the indicative schedule in Appendix 10. Stakehlder Engagement: Stakehlder engagement will be carried ut thrughut the design and cnstructin f the prject. CN / CP cnstraints: The GO Transit rail netwrk crridrs are wned by GO, CN and CP, as shwn in Figure 25 and all 3 cmpanies perate train services n all f the crridrs. Cnstructin wrk n each crridr will require the detailed design and cnstructin prpsals t be reviewed and agreed befre cnstructin cntracts are awarded. Required wrking arrangements will need t be crdinated t meet the requirements f GO, CN and CP and incrprated int the design and cnstructin cntracts. The indicative schedule assumes that these discussins take place during the preliminary design phase f each ptin as design prpsals are being develped and befre the envirnmental assessment is submitted. 70 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

87 Purchase f Lcmtives: Lcmtive design and prcurement wuld nt start until after the Envirnmental Assessment has been apprved and wuld be separate cntracts fr the prcurement f the Electric Lcmtives fr GO Transit service and the retrfitting f the ARL trains. Cnstructin Sequence: Fr peratinal requirements all tracks within the Unin Statin Rail Crridr either West r East will be electrified fr every ptin. This allws fr the unplanned clsure f a switch r sectin f track in the appraches t Unin Statin and reduces delays t scheduled services. Cnstructin Packages: The cnstructin packages may be split int scpe specific packages and then int specific sectins, fr example; Enabling Wrks. Pwer Systems OCS Wrk. Supply cntract fr the substatins. Signals system upgrades acrss the whle electrified netwrk in cnjunctin with CN. Hydr One wuld be respnsible fr the cnnectin f each substatin t the grid. Maintenance and strage facilities upgrades excluding the installatin f the OCS. Crridr Ownership: The cmplexity f the wnership f each crridr is shwn n 524 belw. The selectin f each cnstructin sectin and the determinatin f the sequence f phasing each ptin cnsidered the wnership and interactin with the train services perated n each line. Detailed prpsals wuld be develped with the wners f each crridr during the preliminary design stage and stakehlder cnsultain. The planning f the cnstructin sequence and hurs f wrking wuld take this int accunt. 71 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

88 Figure 25: GO Transit Rail Netwrk Crridr Ownership map Cnstructin Phases: The schematic belw shws the entire GO Transit netwrk. Each crridr has been divided int crridr sectins and these are indicated e.g. LW1, LW2 etc. These crridr sectins were derived frm the service schedule and have been used t determine the cnstructin phases. 72 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010

89 Figure 26: Netwrk schematic shwing Crridr sectins Cnstructin Sequence: The cnstructin sequence fr each f the 6 ptins has been divided int phases and these are shwn in a series f schematic diagrams fr each ptin in Appendix 10A. An indicative implementatin schedule fr each ptin has been als prvided in Appendix 10A. The cnstructin sequence fr each ptin is described belw. Optin 1 Gergetwn Optin 1 cnsists f 3 phases as shwn belw. Phase 1 Unin Statin t Bramptn Phase 1A frm Unin Statin t Willwbrk Maintenance Facility and the West Trnt Diamnd. Phase 1B cnstructin culd start at the same time as Phase 1A and prgress westward frm West Trnt Diamnd t the airprt spur and Pearsn Airprt. Once cmpleted an electrified service wuld be implemented n the ARL. Phase 2 wuld fllw cmpleting the sectin between the airprt spur and Bramptn, allwing a scheduled service t start fr trains t Bramalea. Phase 3 fllws Phase 2 and cntinues electrificatin t Kitchener. 73 GO Electrificatin Study Final Reprt December 2010