6th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum Oct 2009 Rainbow Hotel, Shanghai, China. What Make the Market Different in 2009?

Transcription

1 What Make the Market Different in 2009? He Weihui CCFEI October 2009 Content 1. Review on 2009 Market 2. Influencing Factors 3. Outlook on 2010 Market 175

2 1. Review on 2009 Market PTA Price Trend in 2009 $/ton RMB-based USD-based Jan 29Jan 23Feb 20Mar 14Apr 9May 3Jun 28Jun 23Jul 17Aug 11Sep

3 MEG Price Trend in 2009 $/ton 7000 RMB-based USD-based Jan 24Jan 13Feb 5Mar 25Mar 14Apr 4May 24May 13Jun 3Jul 23Jul 12Aug 1Sep 400 Polyester Price Trend in FGPET BGPET POY150D PSF 1.4D Jan 3Feb 5Mar 4Apr 4May 3Jun 3Jul 2Aug 1Sep 177

4 Review on Polyester Price PTA 5950 MEG FGPET BGPET POY PSF Low-end High-end October Growth rate 40% 72% 45% 25% 43% 23% PTA MEG FGPET BGPET POY PSF Influencing Factors 2.1. Market Fundamentals 2.2. Macro-economic Fundamentals 178

5 2.1. Market Fundamentals A). Feedstock Trend and Supply B). Production Cost and Supply C). Polyester Run Rates and Demand A). Feedstock Trend and Supply 179

6 PX, PTA Price Trends in PX PTA 1100 $/ton Jan 2Feb 23Feb 16Mar 6Apr 27Apr 19May 9Jun 30Jun 21Jul 11Aug 1Sep 22Sep Correlated coefficients between PTA and PX 2008: : Producer KP Chemical Mitsubishi MGC Dafen Yangzi PC Tianjin PC Qingdao Lidong Liaoyang PC Liaoyang PC Shandong Qilu CPC TPPI Pertamina Petronas ExxonMobil SK Energy Location Capacity (kt/yr) S Korea 525 Month Remark Japan H2 Jan-H1 Mar Japan 420 Idled since mid May China 800 China China 700 Early Apr-mid May China 300 Mid May-Mid Mid Jul China 450 Mid May-end Jun China 80 About 36 days Taiwan About one month Indonesia 550 Indonesia 270 About half a month Malaysia 550 Over 10 days Singapore 420 About 3 weeks S Korea 350 About 45 days 180

7 New PX Capacities on Stream Producer CNOOC Huizhou Capacity (kt/yr) 800 Dalian Fujia 800 Fujian Refining & Petrochem Shanghai Petrochem 700 Total 2,900 Location Huizhou, Guangdong Dalian, Liaoning Quanzhou, Fujian 600 Shanghai Startup Time Jun Jun-Jul Jul Jul-Aug Sep MX, PX Price Comparison in PX-MX PX MX $/ton Jan 2Feb 23Feb 16Mar 6Apr 27Apr 19May 9Jun 30Jun 21Jul 12Aug 2Sep 24Sep 181

8 Correlation Comparison between PTA and Downstream Polyester Products FGPET BGPET POY PSF Capability of Transmitting Cost (CTC) refers to the capability of passing on rising feedstock costs, and it is used to the pricing capability of the product in the market. FGPET BGPET POY PSF CTC>1: The industry can smoothly pass on pressures brought by rising costs or even can gain. CTC 1: The industry can basically pass on pressures brought by rising costs. CTC<1: The industry can t wholly pass on pressures brought by rising costs and can only digest it. 182

9 B). Production Cost and Supply Comparison of PTA Price and Cost in PTA Cost 5Jan 19Jan 9Feb 23Feb 9Mar 23Mar 6Apr 20Apr 5May 19May 2Jun 16Jun 30Jun 14Jul 28Jul $/ton 183

10 Producer Tianjin Petrochem Xianglu PC Yangzi Petrochem Yizheng Chemical Fiber Shanghai PC BP Zhuhai BP Zhuhai Liaoyang PC Liaoyang PC Yisheng PC Yisheng PC Yuandong PC Yuandong PC Mitsubishi Ningbo Oriental PC FCFC Ningbo Site Shanghai Capacity (kt/yr) 600 Month Tianjin 350 Till mid Mar Xiamen 1,600 3 days, 8 days Remark Nanjing 350 About half a month Yizheng Turn around by turns; Turn around smaller line in Aug Shanghai 350 Zhuhai 500 Mid May-early Jul, 6 days in Aug Zhuhai days in Aug and 3 days in Sep Liaoyang 530 Since late May Liaoyang 270 Ningbo 650 Ningbo 650 Shaoxing 600 Shaoxing 600 Idled for 10 days Ningbo 600 Ningbo days, 4 days, 15 days Y-O-Y Y Comparison of PTA Operating Rates % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep According to statistics from CCFEI, the average operating rate of PTA units in 2009 was down about 4 percentage points year on year. 184

11 Run Rate Price Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Npv Dec $/ton % The correlated coefficient between PTA price and the operating rate was 0.59 in 2008 The correlated coefficient in 2009 was Run Rate Price Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep $/ton % Comparison of CTC 2008 vs 2009 FGPET BGPET POY PSF Jan Feb Mar Apr Mar Jun Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

12 Cost and Profit for POY150D/48F Jan-Sep Cash Liquidity Price Cost 0 4Jan 2Feb 3Mar 1Apr 30Apr 29May 27Jun 26Jul 24Aug 22Sep Cost and Profit for 1.4D PSF Jan-Sep Cash Liquidity Price Cost Jan 2Feb 3Mar 1Apr 30Apr 29May 27Jun 26Jul 24Aug 22Sep

13 Cost and Profit for Water-grade BGPET Jan-Sep Jan 2Feb 3Mar 1Apr 30Apr 29May 27Jun 26Jul 24Aug 22Sep Cash Liquidity Price Cost C). Polyester Run Rates and Demand 187

14 Polyester Run Rate Trend in BGPET PSF PFY 80 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 90% 85% % 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep According to statistics from CCFEI, the average operating rate of PFY units in 2009 increased about 11 percentage points year on year. 188

15 80% 75% % 65% 60% 55% 50% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep According to statistics from CCFEI, the average operating rate of PSF units in 2009 increased about 7 percentage points year on year. 100% 90% % 70% 60% 50% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep According to statistics from CCFEI, the average operating rate of BGPET units in 2009 decreased about 3 percentage points year on year. 189

16 $/ton Run Rate Price Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The correlated coefficient in 2009 was Run Rate Pice The correlated coefficient between PTA price and 70 polyester operating rate 65 in 2008 was % $/ton Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 60 % Supply/demand Fundamental for PTA Jan-Sep 2009 Unit: kt PTA Production Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep PTA Imports PTA Exports PTA Supply Polyester Production PTA Demand Balance

17 2.2. Macro-economic Fundamentals 1). PTA Futures 2). RMB Exchange Rate against US Dollar 3). Stock Market, Economy 1). PTA Futures PTA Futures PTA Spot Jan 5Feb 5Mar 5Apr 5May 5Jun 5Jul 5Aug 5Sep 5Oct The correlated coefficient between prices of PTA spots and PTA futures in 2009 was

18 2). RMB Exchange Rate against US Dollar Jan 4Apr 4Jul 4Oct 4Jan 4Apr 4Jul 4Oct 4Jan 4Apr 4Jul 4Oct ). Stock Market Shanghai Stock Index PTA The correlated coefficient between PTA price and Shanghai Stock Index in 2008 was Jan 16Jan 30Jan 13Feb 27Feb 12Mar 26Mar 9Apr 23Apr 7May 21May 4Jun 18Jun 2Jul 16Jul 30Jul 13Aug 27Aug 10Sep 24Sep 8Oct 22Oct 5Nov 19Nov 3Dec 17Dec 31Dec Shanghai Stock Index PTA The correlated coefficient in 2009 was Jan 19Jan 2Feb 16Feb 2Mar 16Mar 30Mar 13Apr 27Apr 11May 25May 8Jun 22Jun 6Jul 20Jul 3Aug 17Aug 31Aug 14Sep 28Sep 192

19 3. Outlook on 2010 Market 3.1. Capacity and Supply 3.2. Textile Sector 3.3. Comparison of Historical Prices 3.4. Macro-economy 3.1. Capacity and Supply 193

20 PTA Projects in China Unit: kt/yr Producer Capacity Remark Fujian Jialong 600 Under construction Hanbang 600 Under construction East New Hope Yizheng Chemical Fiber 900 Total 3,100 Completes construction 1,000 To be constructed Besides, Yisheng, Tongkun, Hengli and Sanfangxiang planned to build new units, expected to start up during Planned Polyester New Capacities in China Producer Tongxiang Xinfengming Jiangsu Shenghong Wujiang Xinmin Zhangjiagang Xinxin Haixin Shenhe Tongxiang Tongkun Xiaoshan Rongsheng Capacity Expected startup time Xiaoshan Hengyi 400 Nov 2009 Aug and Pending 2011 Unit: kt/yr Remark PFY Hangzhou Huaxin PFY Jiangsu Hengli PIF, PFY and BGPET Jiangsu Huaya 380 Late 2010 PFY PFY PFY PFY PFY PFY PFY PFY 194

21 2009 Planned Polyester New Capacities in China (conti( conti.) Unit: kt/yr Producer Capacity Expected startup time Remark Hangzhou Hengyuan PFY Fujian Jinxing 400 Late 2010 or early 2011 PFY, BGPET Fujian Billion 100 Pending PFY Zhejiang Kangxin 200 Late 2010 PFY Shandong Wanjie BGPET Jiangyin Sanfangxiang 500 Late 2009-early 2010 BGPET Changzhou Resources BGPET Far Eastern (Shanghai) BGPET Zhejiang Zhengkai BGPET Total 6, Textile Sector 195

22 Y-O-Y Y Comparison of Textiles & Clothing Export Values $100 million Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Comparison of Fabric Productions million meter Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 196

23 3.3. Comparison of Historical Prices Comparison of PTA Price Trends year Price Span 5-year Average Jan 2Feb 2Mar 2Apr 2May 2Jun 2Jul 2Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Nov 2Dec 197

24 3.4. Macro-economy A). Economy in Europe and U.S. is recovering. B). The recovery of Chinese economy is likely to be quicker than expected, and the rapid export growth rate may rise to a two-digit level C). China s s GDP growth rate is expected to reach 9.8% in 2010, with an inflation index of 3.2% For reference only Thank you! 198