Economy and Key Indicators Background for Foundry Business

Transcription

1 Economy and Key Indicators Background for Foundry Business Bild: Fotolia CAEF,

2 5,0 World Economic Outlook revised up in October 2017(exception UK) Change in % yoy 4,0 3,0 Euro: Germany Italy: France: Spain: UK: underrated for Germany/ overrated for South of Europe Cancellation of coalition negotiations Pre election? Weakening Macron Impact? Less Dynamic but still on the way! What happens in Catalonia? faltering Brexit negotiations 3,2 3,1 2,5 2,0 1,8 2,1 1,9 1,8 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,8 1,5 1,8 1,7 1,5 1,0 1,2 0,9 1,1 0, Source: IMF, October 2017 Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain UK CAEF,

3 Euro Area Business Climate Indicator October 2017 Industrial Production Change in % yoy Snapshot October: The Business Climate Indicator for the euro area increased. 4 Managers' appraisals of the stocks of finished products, past production and, in particular, overall order books improved strongly. 3 Recovery 2 No (!) cycle and now stable recovery! Economic cycle Economic cycle Investment boom -3 Business Climate Recession Industrial Production Business Climate Source: Eurostat, Industrial Production September CAEF,

4 65 Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in large regions uary 2017 October 2017 Index 60,8 USA and EU Area positive China with question marks ,0 57,7 57,2 54,8 54,9 57,8 56,3 58,8 58,7 55,2 55,4 56,2 56,7 57,0 57,4 56,6 57,4 58,1 58, ,0 51,3 51,7 50,3 49,6 50,4 51,1 51,6 51,0 51, USA China Euro Area Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service) Source: ISM, Markit, CAEF,

5 Business Climate Germany Industrial Supplier October 2017 Saldo der positiven und negativen 60 Meldungen 50 Reduced uncertainties about the months to come Current Status Expectations Source: Ifo München, ArGeZ Arbeitsgemeinschaft Zulieferindustrie Saisonbereinigt, Saldo aus positiven und negativen Bewertungen, CAEF,

6 Short Summary and Open Questions Bild: Fotolia, Nesterov Vasily; CAEF,

7 Current Perspectives for the Foundries Passenger cars: USA weak, Europe: 2017 positive, but saturation point can be reached, 2018 stagnation on a high level or positive impulses from Southern Europe? Recovery in Russia and South America China with extended support program and just before the start in the new area of electromobility! General Engineering: 2017 chance for plus three percent after years of stagnation, 2018 positive expectations Positive: automation, robotics and rubber- and plastic machines, building machines wind turbines (volume at the peak, prices under pressure, USA TCP? 2018 negative) Recovery: mining, agrícultural, paper machines Further Impulses possible from the Building Industry Risks Neverending story: Overcapacities hard price competition structural change Trump -Impact and raising key interest rates in the USA could lead to further capital outflow from emerging markets Brexit declaration is dumpening investments CAEF,

8 Open Questions and Uncertainties 2017 USA How quickly protectionism is working? Results of just started NAFTA renegotiations? Investmentboom with temporary positive impact for European plant manufacturer? Direct tax penalties or modification of the tax system (border adjustment tax) (current status: border adjustment tax is postponed) China Real growth vs. official data Reduction of capacity or delaying tactic and start of new capacities? Intensive penetration of the European markets if the USA close the doors? EU/ Brexit und Co. Impact of Brexit = dumpening effect for investments or impulses driven by relocation processes? Turkey Development of the Lira = two sides of a medal Other Dieseldiscussion, Elektromobility, Exchange rates CAEF,

9 European Foundry Industry Expectations Source: Eisenwerk Brühl, Bernd Rosenbaum CAEF,

10 180 FISI European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (ferrous) October Current status: Recovery! Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep May Sep current situation expectations for six months Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since 2017: country weight based on production 2015, incl. Bulgaria CAEF,

11 110 FISI European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (steel castings) October Data collection has started December No bottom out! Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep current situation expectations for six months Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since 2017: country weight based on production 2015, incl. Bulgaria CAEF,

12 180 FISI European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (non-ferrous) October Quite optimistic: Non-ferrous foundries are expecting continuation of the positive trends! Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep May Sep current situation expectations for six months Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since 2017: country weight based on production 2015, incl. Bulgaria CAEF,