Ethanol & Grain Market Outlook for /04/07
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1 Ethanol & Grain Market Outlook for /04/07 By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles Professor of International Agriculture Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A.
2 Grain Marketing Considerations for Tight storage & transportation ahead 2. Weakening corn basis harvest 3. Markets offering excellent storage returns (if you have bin space) for both corn & beans to summer Consider leaving basis open for summer 08 delivery 5. Expect strong basis around ethanol plants 6. Expect blow-off top in wheat to impact corn, bean markets -- when it happens 7. Be conservative on 2008 & 09 marketings
3 Grain Marketing for , 09, II 1. Expect stronger cash corn mkt. into winter 2. Wheat, SB pulling acres out of corn 3. Bean mkt. danger: big jump in Brazil Acres 4. Biofuels is global development 5. World grain & livestock mkts.: big adjustments ahead 6. Ethanol growth increases mkt. sensitivity to weather
4 Risk Factors: Corn & Bean Markets 1. Severe grain transport stress Miss. River (Tenn.-Ky. River prices corn $2.58/bu. 9/05/07) 2. Limited ethanol blending capacity & transportation 3. Big jump in South American acres 4. Collapse in world oil markets (doubtful) 5. Deteriorating global economy (doubtful)
5 Key Chart Formations 1. December corn $3.58 & $ % retrenchment, Dec. 07 corn: $ Nov. 07 SB 4. Dec. Chicago wheat many downside gaps
6 Dec. 07 wheat reaches record highs
7 Weekly Corn Futures $3.10/bu.
8 October 07 Ethanol Futures
9 October 07 Unleaded Gasoline
10 Nov. 07 SB Gap
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15 41 countries encourage biofuels Major Countries with Ethanol Fuels U.S. Brazil Canada China EU-27 Thailand Countries considering ethanol fuels South Africa Ukraine Japan
16 Major Countries with Ethanol Fuels U.S. likely production of bil. gal. from corn in years Brazil 89 new ethanol plants to be built, % biodiesel mandate by 2008 & 5% by 2013 China 3 corn-based plants, emphasis shifting to other feedstocks EU % of motor fuel to be renewable by 2010, 10% in 2020 Canada 5% ethanol mandate by 2010, 2% biodiesel by 2012 Thailand ethanol from sugar, mantiac Biodiesel Competition for crop land
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18 International Impacts U.S. ethanol plants under construction to use 58 mil. tons of corn (doubling use) 3.5 times the volume of Japan imports of U.S. corn 130% of 2006 EU corn crop 70% of global corn exports Other countries are expanding ethanol & biodiesel Strong negative impacts on animal ag. Higher food costs ahead Major risk-management challenges in Ag. & bioenergy
19 USDA 07-08
20 Expanding U.S. Ethanol Industry vs Corn Feeding '06-07 Corn for Ethanol '07-08 Ethanol Proj. Other Constr'n Proj. Corn ethanol U.S. Corn Feeding U.S. Corn Feeding Potential Corn for Ethanol Other under construction Ethanol Current Corn for Ethanol
21 New York Crude Oil Futures Prices
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24 Lyon Sioux Plymouth Osceola O Brien Cherokee Dickenson Clay BuenaVista Kosuth Potential Planned + Iowa current Plants in Iowa 11 Just across the IA borders Borders Woodbury Ida Sac Webster Hamilton BlackHawk Buchana Delawa Dubuque Calhoun Hardin Grundy n re Tama Linn Story Benton n Jones Jackson Monona Crawford r Carroll Greene Boone Marshal l Clinton n Audubon Poweshiek Cedar Harrison Shelby Guthrie Dalla Polk Jasper Iowa Johnson Scott s Mucatine Pottawattamie Adair Madis Warren Washington Cass Marion Mahask Keokuk on a Louisa Figure 1. Mills Fremont Montgomery Page Emmet Palo Alto Pocahontas Winnebago Worth Mitchell HowardWinnesh iek Allamakee Hancoc Floyd CerroGordo k Wright Franklin Appanoose Chickasaw Bremer Fayette Iowa Iowa Corn corn Corn Processing processing Processing & Ethanol & ethanol Plants, plants, Current Locations, current & Actual Planned, & planned, & Planned. 7/25/07, 10/26/06 11/20/06 9/26/06 Butler Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe Taylor Humbol dt Ringgold Decatur Wayne Wapello Davis Capacity: 129% of 2006 crop Capacity: 159% of 2006 Crop Jefferson Henry VanBuren Clayton Lee Des Moines
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26 June 2007 Needed 2007 Acres 334 ethanol plant rated cap. New trend??
27 Total 11,693 mil. Bu.
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29 A.
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33 Ethanol Blending Wall? (Are we there yet?) Market incentive to increase blending capacity What happens when avg. Midwest blend is 10%? More shipments to coasts at higher cost
34 $ per Gal.
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36 State Avg. Ethanol Rack Prices Date: Wednesday, Aug. 08, 2007 Iowa: 2.13 Ill.: 2.21 Ks.: 2.34 Minn.: 2.15 Mo.: 2.34 N. Dk.: 2.23 Nebr.: 2.35 Averages provided by: S. Dk.: 2.27 Wisc.: g
37 5.9 Bil. Bu. Corn for ethanol by 2012
38 Will increased South American exports more than offset U.S. decline?
39 Potential area to be cleared for crops
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41 August 2007 Crop Production Crop Corn: Planted Harvested Yield Production Unit Mil Ac Mil Ac Bu/Ac Bil Bu Aug % Chg from Prev Forecast NC NC % Chg from Prev Season
42 Corn for Grain Yields 2007 Bushels and Change From Previous Year 210# NC # NC # NC # # 7 150# U.S # Record High NC = No Change
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45 Percent Change in Iowa Grain Production by Crop Reporting District, 2007 vs % 30% 20% Corn Soybeans Corn +SB 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% NW NC NE WC C EC SW SC SE State
46 Iowa 2007 August Corn & Soybean Production Chgs. Vs. '06 by District Mil. Bu. Chg. vs State Combined Total +378 Mil. Bu., +15% Soybeans Corn corn + SB -40 NW NC NE WC C EC SW SC SE
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48 2007
49 Model Forecast: $3.11/bu.. U.S & $3.20 for
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52 Proj. Proj.
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55 Billion Bushels U.S. Soybean Production
56 U.S. Soybean Yield Bushels/Acre
57 Soybean Yields 2007 Bushels and Change From Previous Year NC # # U.S # Record High NC = No Change
58 China Soybean Supply & Use 60 Million Metric Tons /97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 Production Net Imports Domestic Use Source: FAPRI, Univ. of Missouri
59 Soybean Trade Million Metric Tons /97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 US Net Export Brazil Net Export China Net Import Source: FAPRI, Univ. of Missouri
60 EU Use of Rapeseed Oil Million Metric Tons Year Crop Harvested Food Other Biofuel Source: FAPRI, Univ. of Missouri
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65 Potential Future Co-Product Changes Removing Corn Oil from DDGS Converting Fiber to Ethanol Pelleting DDGS Grades & Standards Converting biodiesel glycerine to ethanol Reduced feed energy supplies
66 MINIMUM SOYOIL PRICE FOR BIODIESEL BREAKEVEN at GIVEN WORLD CRUDE OIL PRICE Add biodiesel PRX_C_US_BA, GTB-06-03, Mar Crude Oil Price, $/bbl $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 $60.00 $65.00 $70.00 Soybean $0.19 ($0.10) $0.02 $0.14 $0.25 $0.37 $0.49 $0.61 $0.73 $0.85 Oil Price $0.20 ($0.18) ($0.06) $0.06 $0.18 $0.30 $0.42 $0.54 $0.66 $0.78 $/lb $0.21 ($0.25) ($0.13) ($0.01) $0.11 $0.23 $0.35 $0.47 $0.58 $0.70 $0.22 ($0.32) ($0.20) ($0.08) $0.04 $0.15 $0.27 $0.39 $0.51 $0.63 $0.23 ($0.39) ($0.28) ($0.16) ($0.04) $0.08 $0.20 $0.32 $0.44 $0.56 $0.24 ($0.47) ($0.35) ($0.23) ($0.11) $0.01 $0.13 $0.25 $0.37 $0.48 $0.25 ($0.54) ($0.42) ($0.30) ($0.18) ($0.06) $0.05 $0.17 $0.29 $0.41 $0.26 ($0.61) ($0.49) ($0.38) ($0.26) ($0.14) ($0.02) $0.10 $0.22 $0.34 $0.27 ($0.69) ($0.57) ($0.45) ($0.33) ($0.21) ($0.09) $0.03 $0.15 $0.27 $0.28 ($0.76) ($0.64) ($0.52) ($0.40) ($0.28) ($0.16) ($0.05) $0.07 $0.19 $0.29 ($0.83) ($0.71) ($0.59) ($0.48) ($0.36) ($0.24) ($0.12) $0.00 $0.12 $0.30 ($0.91) ($0.79) ($0.67) ($0.55) ($0.43) ($0.31) ($0.19) ($0.07) $0.05 $0.31 ($0.98) ($0.86) ($0.74) ($0.62) ($0.50) ($0.38) ($0.26) ($0.15) ($0.03) For Blue Sky Scenario, PRX adopts a crude oil price of $50/bbl and thus a minimum 24 cent/lb soyoil price, to evaluate impact of subsidized biodiesel market. Source: Dr. Terry Francel, American Farm Bureau Federation
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68 Source of data: USDA, NASS
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71 Illinois Corn Yields Drought Tolerant? NW NE WEST E.SE SW SE % chg
72 Implications for U.S. and World Livestock, Poultry & Food Costs U.S. supplies 2/3 of world corn exports, 20-25% of wheat & 35-40% of cotton exports Cost of livestock & poultry feed will increase Large increase in variability of feed & food costs Food aid impacts? Accelerated ag expansion into areas with fragile eco systems Shift livestock industries from U.S. to South America? Rural employment implications in U.S.
73 Infrastructure Needs of bioenergy Market (Time Frame: 3 to 5 years) Sharp Increases in: Inputs for corn production Corn receiving, drying, storage, farm transporting infrastructure Efficient rail shipping of ethanol & DDGS More tank cars for ethanol movement Electric power generation Water supply systems Research on pipelines for ethanol Retail facilities for E-85, E-20 & E-30 stations
74 U.S. Cellulose Ethanol At least 2 pilot plants being developed Expect strong U.S. government emphasis Potential Feedstocks: DDGS Corn stover Prairie grasses Forest wastes Municipal wastes Research for major handling & storage challenges
75 Environmental Issues for Research: ethanol Impact on groundwater supplies Long-term effects, mono-culture ag. Allowable maximum removal of corn stover & grasses o Soil erosion impacts o Soil organic matter impacts o Diminished wildlife habitats o Water quality impacts from more fertilizer
76 Key Issues for Agriculture Alternative feedstocks: which ones, how soon? Biomass, sweet sorghum, sugar beets, high-oil crops, cane sugar, others Differential impacts on livestock & poultry species Environmental: continuous corn, off-take of biomass, erosion-prone land Efficient use of distillers grain, including new uses Risk Management: livestock, crops, ethanol
77 Key Issues for Agriculture, II Future transition of corn-ethanol plants to other feedstocks Policy issues: import tax, blending credit, LDPs, CCPs, E-85 vs. E-10, pipeline possibilities, vehicle redesigning, Hydrogen sources Global developments: EU biodiesel, Brazil export potential, Asia, S. Africa bioenergy & global grain supply, demand & prices Infrastructure needs: grain handling & storage, transportation, ethanol & ddgs transport High Prices encourage oil exploration & conservation
78 What Could Change Prospects of Tightening Global Grain Supply? Accelerated corn yield increases Crude oil price collapse Early break-through in economical cellulose conversion U.S.Ethanol import tax removed longer term impacts U.S. $0.51 blending credit reduced or made variable Declining global livestock feeding
79 Need for Both Ethanol and Animal Agriculture 100 million gallon ethanol plant 37 million bushels of corn 80 workers directly employed 37 million bu corn Direct jobs Farrow-finish 800 Or Wean-finish 242 Or Beef feedlot 278 Source: Dr. John Lawrence, Head of ISU Beef Center
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81 ...and justice for all The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Many materials can be made available in alternative formats for ADA clients. To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC or call Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Jack M. Payne, director, Cooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.
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