The prospects for a zero GHG power sector in Latin America

Transcription

1 The prospects for a zero GHG power sector in Latin America Walter Vergara, July 7 th, 2017 Senior fellow, WRI Inter American Dialogue, Washington DC Abengoa, Conceptualization of Cerro Dominador CSP plant in Chile

2 LAC s carbon footprint 10% of global emissions (4.6 GtCO 2 e); 7.7 tco2e per capita; 22% decrease in carbon intensity per GDP-PPP since 2000; 48% renewable power = 0.21 tco 2 e /MWh; Urban public-transport share of passenger trips even higher than in Northern Europe; Nearly 50% of emissions come from land use and land use change.

3 EJ/year MtCO 2 e Projected demand and emissions of the power sector GEA-MIX GEA-BAU CAIT GEA-BAU (CAIT, 2015; IIASA, 2015)

4 Atacama Desert Energy field Area: 102,000 sq km Irradiance 265 W/m2 Power received 27.4 TW or 80 PWh per year Proven oil reserves of Saudia Arabia 268 billion barrels of oil If all converted to power: 26 PWh With average efficiency of 15% In 16 years, 4% of the area of Atacama generates same power as all the proven all proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

5 Guajira Atacama Peninsula desert: Energy Field field Jepirachi power plant Area: 10,000 sq km Wind Field: Class Seven (Consistent over 9m/s at 50 m height) Estimated Wind Energy Potential: 18 GW (ACS, 2012) (Prieto, 2008) (Colombia s estimated installed capacity is 15.5 GW) Installed capacity: 20 MW Projects proposed: 3 GW

6 Resource endowment Renewable energy sources in Latin America Geothermal OCEAN Hydro-Power Wind-offshore Wind-onshore Solar PV Solar CSP Biomass-Residues The region s endowment estimated to be at about 93 PWh (Ecofys 2009) The global power demand sits at 19.7 PWh (EIA,2015) PWh/year (Ecofys, 2009)

7 Hydro power plants > 1 GW nominal capacity Source: Power Watch, 2017

8 Policy Framework has made progress Most countries: o RE targets o RE programs & policies Many countries: o Fiscal incentives/provisions Some countries o Carbon tax o Preferential dispatch o Regs on distributive power

9 Generation costs are falling (US$/kWh) (IRENA, 2015)

10 Calculated LCOEs for renewables

11 US$/kWh US$/kWh Hydro Wind Solar utility PV Solar CSP without storage Solar Tower with 7 h storage Wave power Tidal power Geothermal Coal Natural gas Diesel (1.71 US$/gallon) Diesel (5 US$/gallon) 0 Solar PV Solar CSP Wind onshore

12 Pathway to zero carbon power in LAC All new demand is met by renewables by 2020 Fossil plants other than gas are mothballed by 2030 All NG plants are mothballed by 2050 Grid integrated by 2030 (regional storage in hydro) Widespread distributed power by GW 240 GW 540 GW 960 GW

13 Key barriers facing decarbonisation of power in the region Fossil-fuel subsidies remain an important obstacle to entry; Lack of CO 2 market/carbon tax delays transition; Grid integration and distributed power face entrenched interests; Regional market integration in power needs to be achieved. San Jacinto-Tecate Geothermal Plant

14 Interconnected regional grid Allow large reservoirs of renewable energy to access regional market; Dampen the intermittencies of local renewable resources; Allow regional multi-annual reservoirs to operate as a large energy storage facility; Reduce power costs.

15 Modal share in urban transport 30% 13% 26% 31% Berlin Public Transport Private Transport Walk Cycle 3.8% 1.5% 5.1% 27.5% 17.5% 44.7% Bogota Public Transport Private Transport Walk Taxi Cycle Other 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% USA 5.2% 10.1% Public Transport Private Transport 36% Copenhagen 28% Public Transport Private Transport 21% 5% 1% Curitiba 45% Public Transport Private Transport 79.8% Carpool Walk Taxi Cycle Walk Walk 7% 29% Cycle 28% Cycle Other Sources: (Berlin, 2013), (Bogotá, 2013), (Curitiba, 2011), (Copenhagen, 2013), (USA, 2012) recalculated

16 Synergies between low-carbon power and transport. Technology Pace of Change Impact Renewable energy PV costs falling at 22% per year since 1976 Market size for PVs increased 40% per year Reduced operational costs of electric vehicles Energy storage Falling at 14% per year since 2000 Matches supply & demand. Increases autonomy of vehicles. Electric vehicles Costs to be at par with ICE by 2020 Can complete power demand curves Charging stations Wireless stations emerging Increased driving range

17

18

19 US$/km Projected learning curves for electric vehicle options with credit for avoided cost of air pollution current LCOE for Diesel Buses current LCOE for Diesel Trucks current LCOE for Gasoline Cars Electric Cars Electric Buses (18m) Electric Trucks

20 PWh/year Energy savings from full transport electrification Equivalent energy demand of transport sector if fossil fuels were used Actual energy demand of electricity by transport sector Author s estimates. (IIASA, 2012)

21 Complementarity of electricity and transport demand Typical load curve of power demand In Colombia. Typical daily load curve in Colombia. Nominal capacity for hydro is 10GW. System requires expansion to handle peak demand. Daily energy demand of diesel is 180 GWh per day, or 60 GWh electric. If 50% is now electric, this would require an additional capacity of 1250 MW per hour distributed during the period of lower demand.

22 Added value of a Zero GHG Power Sector Energy security (inexhaustible renewable resources); Improvements in terms of trade; Improved air quality in urban areas (electrification of transport); Regional cooperation (integrated grid and means of transport); and, Places the region on a path more consistent with the sustainable development goals just adopted by the UN (climate, cities, energy, forests) It would support the deployment of new means of production and better use of natural resources with improvements in quality of life. It would not just signal a leadership role for the region in the climate arena.

23 Data sources CAIT (emissions today, IIASA (emissions under BAU projections, ( ENERDATA (energy use in transport and energy, GACMO (LCOE and LCOT, Contact: The report can be downloaded with the following links: - English: merica_rev.pdf - Spanish: