The Role of Nuclear Power
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- Alberta Barker
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1 The Role of Nuclear Power Chris Larsen Vice President, Nuclear Power June 23, 2009
2 Our Mission To conduct research on key issues facing the electricity sector on behalf of its members, energy stakeholders, and society. 2
3 U.S. Nuclear Plant Performance Capacity Factor: 90%+ Production Costs: < 2 / kwh Continued Performance Key to Future Deployment and Operation Source: NEI 3
4 Insights from Recent EPRI Work The technical potential exists for the U.S. electricity sector to significantly reduce its CO 2 emissions over the next several decades. No one technology will be a silver bullet a portfolio of technologies will be needed. Much of the needed technology isn t available yet substantial R&D, demonstration is required. A low-cost, low-carbon portfolio of electricity technologies can significantly reduce the costs of climate policy. 4
5 U.S. Electricity Sector CO 2 Emissions U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Base case from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 includes some efficiency, new renewables, new nuclear assumes no CO 2 capture or storage due to high costs 500 Using EPRI deployment assumptions, calculate change in CO 2 relative to EIA base case
6 Technology Deployment Targets 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Base Case EPRI Analysis Target* Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by None None 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 Widely Available and Deployed After % of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter Distributed Energy Resources (DER) (including distributed solar) < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in 2030 EPRI analysis targets do not reflect economic considerations, or potential regulatory and siting constraints. 6
7 Benefit of Achieving Efficiency Target % reduction in base load by 2030 EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in
8 Benefit of Achieving Renewables Target GWe new renewables by 2020; +2 GWe/yr thereafter U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) EIA Base Case 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter 0 DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in
9 Benefit of Achieving Nuclear Generation Target GWe new nuclear by 2020; +4 GWe/yr thereafter EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in
10 Benefit of Achieving Advanced Coal Target % efficiency by 2020, 49% efficiency by 2030 EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in
11 Benefit of Achieving CCS Target After 2020, all new coal plants capture and store 90% of their CO 2 emissions U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) EIA Base Case 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in
12 Benefit of Achieving PHEV and DER Targets % shift to DER from base load in 2030 PHEV sales = 10% by 2017; 30% by 2027 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) EIA Base Case 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in
13 Electric Sector CO 2 Reduction Potential * Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in
14 Updated EPRI Prism for Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. AEO2007*(Ref) AEO2008* (Early Release) AEO2008*(Ref) U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Technology EIA 2008 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.05%/yr Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr Renewables 55 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 15 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Heat Rate Improvement for Existing Plants 40% New Plant Efficiency by % Heat Rate Improvement for 130 GWe Existing Plants 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 Impact of efficiency measures in Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA2007) 500 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2017; 33% by 2030 DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in *Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 14
15 2008 Prism...Technical Potential for CO 2 Reductions U.S. Electric Sector 3500 Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Technology EIA 2008 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.05%/yr Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr Renewables 55 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 15 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Heat Rate Improvement for Existing Plants 40% New Plant Efficiency by % Heat Rate Improvement for 130 GWe Existing Plants 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2017; 33% by 2030 DER < 0.1% of Base Load in % of Base Load in *Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 15
16 Key Technology Challenges Enabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid Enabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids Expanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment Advanced Coal Plants with CO 2 Capture and Storage 16
17 Existing and New Nuclear Generation 17
18 Forward Looking View in the U.S. Current Fleet Initial 40-year licenses begins to expire 60 year licenses in place. First decisions to extend to 80-year life. 60-year licenses begin to expire. Many extensions to 80 years completed/in process. Technology Milestones Deployment Targets Initial deployment of ALWRs in U.S. ~24 GWe new ALWRs ~10 GWe New Fleet ~64 GWe new ALWRs Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
19 Extending Existing Plant Life Opportunity for Economic, Low Carbon Baseload Generation Source: DOE Life Beyond 60 Workshop February
20 Nuclear Long Term Operations.60 + Years Understand the following issues to support long-term plant life: Aging Degradation of Metals Concrete Aging Cooling Water Technology Cable Aging Buried Pipe Aging Risk-informed Safety Margins Digital I&C Modernization Source: A Strategy for Nuclear Energy Research and Development, EPRI Publication , January
21 New Nuclear Plants under Consideration 10 GW by 2020; 64 GW by 2030 Alternate Energy Holdings 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Fermi, DTE 1-ESBWR (1,550 MW) Nine Mile Point, UNE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Bell Bend/PPL, UNE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Blue Castle, TP Unspecified Technology Callaway, AEE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) North Anna, D 1-Unspecified Technology Calvert Cliffs, UNE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Amarillo, UNE 2-USEPR (3,200 MW) Comanche Peak, LUM/TXU 2-USAPWR (3,400 MW) Bellefonte, NS/TVA 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Lee Station, DUK 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Grand Gulf, NS/ETR 1-Unspecified Technology Alvin W. Vogtle, SO 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Harris, PGN 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Summer, SCG 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Source: NRC Expected New Nuclear Power Plant Applications (Feb ) South Texas Project, NINA/NRG 2-ABWR (2,700 MW) Victoria, EXE 2-ABWR (2,700 MW) River Bend, ETR 1-Unspecified Technology Levy County, PGN 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Turkey Point, FPL 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) 21
22 Comparative Costs of New Generation Options: Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Note: Central Station Solar = 175 $/MWh Coal with CCS (2020) NGCC ($8-10/MMBtu) Wind (32.5% CF) Coal without CCS Nuclear Average 2007 U.S. wholesale electricity price = 66 $/MWh Rev. October Cost of CO 2, $/Metric Ton All costs are in 2007 $ 22
23 U.S. Electricity Generation: 2000 to 2050 ( bookend scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO 2 constraint*) (economic allocation) (economic allocation) Demand Reduction Biomass Wind Hydro Nuclear Demand Reduction Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Gas Coal Coal with CCS * Economy-wide CO 2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr 23
24 Learning Curve Opportunity Korean Example 100% 94% Construction Cost (% of First of a Kind) 82% 80% Construction Duration (Months) % 53 63% ~ 2010 ~ 2011 Repetitive Construction of Standardized Plants 24
25 Impact of Construction Delays $/MWh (Const $) Year Start-Up Delay ($4,785/kW) LCOE $73/MWh LCOE $88/MWh Base Case ($3,980/kW) Year 25
26 Key Takeaways Both existing and new nuclear plants needed to meet baseload electricity demand and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Nuclear generation is likely to be a cost-competitive electricity generation option in a low-carbon future. Life extension of existing plants to 80 or more years plausible, but requires technical confirmation. 4-8 new U.S. nuclear plants likely to begin operation in , supported by loan guarantees and production tax credits. Nuclear construction learning curve opportunity for plants beginning operation after
27 Image from NASA Visible Earth 27
28 Capital Requirements Different Methods of Quoting $/kw Escalation 5000 AFUDC (Allowance for Funds Used During Construction) - Short-Term Project Financing 4000 Owners Cost 3000 Contingency 2000 Engineering and Construction Management 1000 General Facilities and Site Specific Costs 0 EPRI Technical Assessment Guide (Constant $) EPRI Technical Assessment Guide (Current $) Utility Site Specific Project (Current $) Process Capital Cost (Equipment and Construction Labor) Source: EPRI Report , Section
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