SAGD Cogeneration: Towards Lower Carbon Power & Oil Sands Production

Transcription

1 SAGD Cogeneration: Towards Lower Carbon Power & Oil Sands Production David B. Layzell, PhD, FR. Professor and Director, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative, Univ. of Calgary. Web: Oil and Gas Conference Calgary - March 6-7, 217 Collaborators: Eric Shewchuk, Song Sit, Madhav Narendran & Manfred Klein

2 Canada s GHG Emissions and Future Commitments Mt CO 2 e/yr Agriculture Waste Agriculture Ind. proc. & prod. use Energy - Fugitive Energy - Transportation Kyoto Commitment Mar 217 Emission Reduction Commitments (relative to 25) -17% -3% 81% of Canadian emissions are associated with Energy Systems -65% 2 Energy - Stationary Alberta s Contribution: 274 Mt CO 2 e/yr (37%) 199 Year % 25

3 The Flow of Carbon Through the Energy Systems of Alberta in 213 Primary Energy Energy Sectors Demand Sectors

4 DRAFT Version for Review - Do not Cite

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6 Generation Capacity (GW) Alberta Plant Retirement Federal 5 yr Retirement Policy! New generation: NG- or better 119* Mt CO 2 Provincial Policy - by 23:! Off! 3% renewables! NG- likely balance What If " SAGD Cogen. were to enable the early retirement of coal; " And policies allowed some or all of the GHG savings to be applied (transitionally) to SAGD OS crude production? Power 75% CF (TWh/y) *Assumes: generation (@ 18 kg CO 2 /MWh) replaced with NG-Cogen or NG- (@ 39 kg CO 2 /MWh)

7 Two Reports: Free download from: Facility Perspective " Target Audience: SAGD Operators " Techno/economic/environmental analysis showing that a standard 33, bpd SAGD facility could efficiently use all the heat from two 85 MW gas turbines and put over ~15 MW on the grid Provincial Perspective " Modelled Five Energy Scenarios to 23 for all SAGD + all Electrical Grid in Alberta # S1: 214 Policy # S2: Current Policy (~3% renewables, coal Early retirement: # S3: w/ng # S4: w/sagd Cogen Max # S5: w/sagd Cogen Rnw

8 Oil Production Forecast 5 AB Total Crude Production NEB Oct 216 Ref. Forecast million bbl/d # Number of 33 kbpdequivalent SAGD facilities 25 SAGD CSS Mining 49 1 Primary (CHOPS, etc) Conventional

9 The Five Scenarios Generation (TWh/y) Power Generation (TWh/yr) ECR=Early Retirement Import S3: ECR w/ NG S4: ECR w/ SAGD Max Import Bio Hydro Import PV PV PV Import Import Bio Hydro Bio Hydro Bio Hydro Generation (TWh/y) Bio S1: BAU 215 S2: Current Policy Hydro PV S5: ECR w/ SAGD Rnw

10 The Five Scenarios SAGD Energy Demand (PJ/y) 75 6 Heat & Power Flows in SAGD SAGD Energy Demand (PJ/y) FA- OTSG Cogen$SAG Grid$SAGD D G T Cogen$Grid S3: ECR w/ NG S4: ECR w/ SAGD Max S1: BAU 215 S2: Current Policy 45 OTS OTS OTSG G 3 Cogen$SAG Cogen$SAG G Cogen$SAG D D 15 FA- FA- Grid$SAGD D Grid$SAGD FA- Grid$SAGD GT GT GT Cogen$Gri Cogen$Gri Cogen$Grid -15 d d FA- Cogen$SAG Grid$SAG D D GT Cogen$Grid OTSG S5: ECR w/ SAGD Rnw

11 The Five Scenarios Greenhouse Gas Emissions (AB Grid + SAGD) Mt CO 2 /yr Grid$SAGD S1: BAU 215 S2: Current Policy 28 Mt FA- Grid (except SAGD) OTSG GT Cogen$SAGD Grid$SAGD OTS FA- G G T Cogen$SAGD Grid (except SAGD) Mt CO 2 /yr S3: ECR w/ NG S4: ECR w/ SAGD Max Grid$SAGD FA- 147 Mt Cogen$SAGD OTS G GT Grid$SAGD FA- 17 Mt OTSG GT Cogen$SAGD S5: ECR w/ SAGD Rnw Grid$SAGD OTSG 162 Mt Cogen$SAGD FA- GT Grid (except SAGD) Grid (except SAGD) Grid (except SAGD)

12 SAGD GHG Intensity (kg CO 2 /bbl) GHG Intensity of SAGD Production NG Per cogen barrel BAU 215 SAGD Rnw Current Policy SAGD Max Conventional Oil GHG Intensity 23 Mt CO 2 e Reduction Target Zone for oil sands production NOTE: " The majority (84%) of the 142 Mt CO 2 e GHG benefit associated with early retirement by SAGD Cogen flows to the AB public Grid. Grid GHG Intensity (kg CO 2 /MWh) of the AB Public Grid BAU 215 Current Policy NG SAGD Rnw SAGD Max 119 Mt CO 2 e Reduction But lower GHGs from oil sands production is more important to the AB / Cdn economy than the GHG intensity of the AB Grid

13 8 GHG Intensity of SAGD Production BAU 215 Current Policy ASSUMING TRANSITIONAL CREDIT TO SAGD FOR EARLY COAL RETIREMENT SAGD GHG Intensity (kg CO 2 /bbl) Per cogen barrel NG SAGD Max SAGD Rnw Conventional Oil Target Zone 142 Mt CO 2 e Reduction If GHG reductions are only assigned to oil produced via heat from SAGD Cogen, SAGD GHG Intensity could be equivalent to / lower than conventional oil. Public Grid GHG Intensity (kg CO 2 /MWh) of the AB Public Grid NG Current Policy SAGD Max SAGD Rnw BAU Benefits: " 142 MtCO 2 e additional GHG reductions by 23 (+ more after 23); " Buy time for oil sands producers to develop and implement more GHG- friendly recovery technologies " Show that oil sands can be part of the Solution to Climate Change; " Enhanced public support

14 Recommendations Recognize Alberta as a province dominated by industries with large thermal loads, so in the transition off coal: " Don t settle for NG- (or repowered coal plants!) that throws away 5% (or 65%) of fuel energy as waste heat; " Require all new base load power generation capacity to be at least ~68% efficient (% of HHV); " Allow companies that achieve EARLY retirement to assign beyond regulation GHG credits to their prod n.

15 Take Home Messages 1. Thermal power generation is inefficient. 2. Alberta could use the waste heat. 3. Now is the time to transform AB s power generation. # 5% to 7% of fuel energy discarded since waste heat is too large to be used; # Primarily in the Oil Sand s SAGD industry; # Aligns with off coal & 3% renewables policy 4. By 23, 142+ Mt CO 2 e GHG reductions that could make SAGD oil = conventional # Needs appropriate policies

16 Thank you Collaborators: Eric Shewchuk (Electrical Engineer) Song Sit, Ph.D. (Chemical Engineer) Madhav Narendran (Electrical Engineering & Economics) & Manfred Klein (Mechanical Engineer) David B Layzell, PhD, FR, Director, CESAR Initiative; Professor, Univ. of Calgary; dlayzell@ucalgary.ca Web: Mar

17 The Five Scenarios Gen. Capacity (GW) Generation Capacity (GW) 6 Gen. Capacity (GW) S3: ECR w/ NG S4: ECR w/ SAGD Max = Peak Load Bio Hydro PV S1: BAU 215 S2: Current Policy Bio Bio Hydro Hydro PV Bio Bio Hydro Hydro PV PV S5: ECR w/ SAGD Rnw

18 The Five Scenarios SADG Electricity (TWh/y) SAGD Electricity Production and End Use SADG Electricity (TWh/y) S3: ECR w/ NG S4: ECR w/ SAGD Max Cogen $ SAGD Grid $ SAGD Cogen $ Grid S1: BAU 215 S2: Current Policy Cogen $ SAGD Grid $ SAGD Cogen $ Grid Cogen $ SAGD Grid $ SAGD Cogen $ Grid Cogen $ SAGD Grid $ SAGD Cogen $ Grid S5: ECR w/ SAGD Rnw Cogen $ SAGD Grid $ SAGD Cogen $ Grid