FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005
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1 FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Fengxia Dong (515) Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (515)
2 Major Baseline Themes World Dairy Markets Trade: Expansion Prices: Gradual rise over the long term Major Exporters Australia & New Zealand: Export growth European Union: Export decline Argentina: Export growth Major Importers Asia: Steady growth of import demand Russia: Import growth
3 Macro-Per Capita GDP US Dollar per capita China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia Thailand
4 Macro-Population Million 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, China India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand
5 Macro-Exchange Rate Argentina Australia Brazil China EU-15 New Zealand
6 Dairy Product Output for Modeled Countries 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
7 Ukraine Per-Capita Butter Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita Argentina Australia EU-NMS EU-15 India Japan Mexico New Zealand Russia 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215
8 Per-Capita Cheese Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita Argentina Australia EU NMS EU-15 Japan Mexico New Zealand Russia Ukraine 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215
9 Per-Capita NFD and WMP Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita China Malaysia Philippines Indonesia South Korea Thailand Vietnam Venezuela 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215
10 World Dairy Product Net Trade 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP
11 Net Export Growth: Major Exporters Butter Cheese NFD WMP Argentina Australia EU New Zealand Ukraine Uruguay
12 Net Import Growth: Major Importers Butter Cheese NFD WMP China Egypt Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia
13 World Dairy Prices (Australian Dairy Prices) AU Dollar per MT 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP
14 FOB Northern European Dairy Prices U.S. Dollar per MT 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP
15 Australian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 kg per Head 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
16 Australian Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
17 Australian Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
18 New Zealand Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, kg per Head 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
19 New Zealand Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
20 New Zealand Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
21 EU-15 Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 25, 2, 15, kg per Head 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 1, 5, , 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
22 EU-15 Dairy Production 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 5
23 EU-15 Dairy Prices Euro per 1 kg Butter Cheese NFD WMP Butter Intervention NFD Intervention
24 EU NMS Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, kg per Head 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
25 EU NMS Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 1 5
26 EU-25 Dairy Production 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk.
27 EU-25 Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
28 Argentine Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 3, kg per Head 6, 2,5 5, 2, 4, 1,5 3, 1, 2, 5 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
29 Argentine Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
30 Argentine Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
31 Brazilian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2, kg per Head 2,5 18, 16, 2, 14, 12, 1,5 1, 8, 1, 6, 4, 5 2, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
32 Brazilian Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
33 Brazilian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
34 Mexican Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2,5 kg per Head 6, 2, 1,5 5, 4, 3, 1, 5 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
35 Mexican Dairy Production 25 Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
36 Mexican Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
37 Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Milk Production 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Colombia Peru Venezuela Uruguay
38 Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
39 Chinese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, kg per Head 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
40 Chinese Dairy Production 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
41 Chinese Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
42 Indian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, kg per Head Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
43 Indian Milk Production 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cow Milk Other Milk (Buffalo)
44 Indian NFD and Butter Production and Trade Million MT NFD Prod. NFD Net Exports Butter Net Imports Butter Prod..
45 Japanese Dairy Production 25 Million MT Butter Cheese NFD Milk 1..
46 South Korean Dairy Production 7 Million MT Butter Cheese NFD Milk 1.5
47 Indonesian, Malaysian, Philippine, Thai, and Vietnamese Milk Production 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Indonesian Malaysian Philippine Thailand Vietnam
48 Asian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
49 Russian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, kg per Head 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, , 1,5 1, 5 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
50 Russian Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD Milk
51 Russian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
52 Thank You!
53 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries Australia New Zealand EU-15 Other ROW
54 Butter Net Imports for Selected Countries Asia Egypt Mexico Russia Other ROW
55 Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Ukraine
56 Cheese Net Imports for Selected Countries 1, Japan Mexico Russia United States Other ROW
57 NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries Australia EU-15 New Zealand U.S. India Other Exporters
58 NFD Net Imports for Selected Countries China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand Vietnam
59 WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Other Exporters
60 WMP Net Imports for Selected Countries China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Venezuela Vietnam
61 EU-15 Butter and SMP Stocks Butter NFD
62 EU-15 Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
63 EU NMS Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
64 Uruguay Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk.
65 Uruguay Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head kg per Head 1,2 1, , 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
66 Uruguay Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
67 Indian Dairy Product Consumption 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Million MT 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Butter NFD Fluid Milk
68 Japanese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 1,5 kg per Head 1, 1, 95 9,5 9, 8, , 7, , Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
69 South Korean Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head kg per Head 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
70 Japanese Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD
71 South Korean Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD
72 Indonesian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
73 Malaysian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
74 Philippine Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
75 Thai Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
76 Vietnam Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP
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