Marine Money Japan Ship Finance Forum

Transcription

1 Marine Money Japan Ship Finance Forum Current Situation in Shipbuilding -World and Japan- Masashi Terakado The Shipbuilders Association of Japan May 12th, 2016

2 Contents 1. Current Situation and Projection on Seaborne Trade 2. World Shipbuilding Industry 3. Advantages of Japanese Shipbuilders 4. Measures on International Regulations 1

3 1-1. Seaborne Transportation Japan s Lifeline Share of Trade in Japan Air Transportation 0.4% Seaborne Transportation 99.6% 99.6% of trade in Japan is carried by ships. Japanese shipbuilders have continued to build the ships, which are essential for the seaborne trade. Source: Japan Ship Exporters Association 2

4 1-2. World Seaborne Trade (Bill.Ton) Iron Ore Coal Grain Container Crude Oil Oil Products Other Cargo /15 Iron Ore % Coal % Grain % Container % Crude Oil % Oil Products % Other Cargo % Total % Other Cargo Oil Products 6 Crude Oil 4 Container Grain 2 Coal Iron Ore Source: Clarkson 3

5 Contents 1. Current Situation and Projection on Seaborne Trade 2. World Shipbuilding Industry 3. Advantages of Japanese Shipbuilders 4. Measures on International Regulations 4

6 2-1. History of World Shipbuilding Industry (Mill.GT) World Completions ( ) Japan: Largest Market Share Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (2008) Rise in China mil. gt suffering situation again Oil Crisis (1973&1979) mil. gt Rise in Korea suffering situation Completion Data: IHS Japan Korea Europe China Others 5

7 2-2. Oversupply of Fleet Index (1990=100) Index Comparison between Seaborne Trade and Fleet 300 GAP Source: Clarkson Seaborne Trade Fleet 6

8 2-3. Problems in Shipbuilding Industry - Overcapacity and Oversupply Bad Cycle in Shipbuilding and Shipping Additional capacity Distortion of market Imbalance of supply & demand Additional fleet Imbalance of supply and demand Government intervention Shipbuilding Low newbuilding price level Incentive to buy newbuilding Shipping Low freight price level Unsustainable business Unsustainable business 7

9 Contents 1. Current Situation and Projection on Seaborne Trade 2. World Shipbuilding Industry 3. Advantages of Japanese Shipbuilders 4. Measures on International Regulations 8

10 3-1. Completions by Shiptype of Japan, Korea, China (2015) [ 値 ] 1% 6% Japan Korea China 5% 6% 3% 11% 9% 10% 1% 10% BC CONT 6% [ 値 ] 31% 39% 15% 21% 48% Tanker LNGC Offshore Other World Completion share by shiptype 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 3% 12% 9% 49% 31% 30% 8% 52% 56% 39% 12% 83% 29% 24% 27% 37% 38% 19% 10% 37% 34% Other China Korea Japan Source: IHS 0% 20% 19% 5% 6% 5% 6% BC CONT Tanker LNGC Offshore Other Total 9

11 3-2. Contracts (Orders) of Export Ship in Japan (Mill.GT) Share of Contracts in % % % Share of Contracts in % 5 45% Bulker Tanker Others 34% Source: Japan Ship Exporters Association Bulker Tanker Others 10

12 3-3. Development - Scale of Shipbuilding Industry in Japan Shipbuilding Companies, Facilities, Workforce and Completions (SAJ members only) Number of Shipbuilding Companies Number of Berths and Docks* Workforce (x1,000 persons) *5,000GT over Newbuilding Completions (mill.gt) st Peak 1st Bottom 2nd Bottom 2nd Peak Present Comparing scales between 1975 and 2010, Workforce: Restructured to 1/3, Completions: Increased by 1.2 times Productivity: Improved by more than tripled Source: SAJ 11

13 3-4. Comparison among Shipbuilding Industries of Japan, Korea, China Facility Capacity (Mill.CGT) Productivity* Workforce (10,000 persons) Japan Korea China *Numbers in 2012 adopted for comparison Productivity (CGT per person) 126 [100] 106 [84] 40 [32] Quality/ Performance Technology Research/ Development Scale of Workforce 12

14 3-5. Japan s Orderbook Share by Nationality of Shipowner End of December, 2015: Total 43.1 mill.gt 8% 37% 41% 4% 4% 1% 2% 3% JAPAN CHINESE TAIPEI GREECE US SINGAPORE BERMUDA UNCONFIRMED OTHERS Source: IHS 13

15 3-6. Maritime Cluster of Japan [Advantage of Japan] Shipowners, Shipbuilders, Ship Equipment Suppliers and Shippers are strongly connected. 1) Shipowners & Shipbuilders 70% of Newbuilding order from Japanese Shipowners are placed to Japanese Shipbuilders. 2) Shipbuilders & Ship Equipment Suppliers Japanese Shipbuilders procure 95% of ship equipments from domestic suppliers. 3) Shippers & Shipowners 60-70% of seaborne cargo on import and export trade in Japan is transported by Japanese Shipowners. 14

16 3-7. Newbuilding Requirement (SAJ2015) (Mill.GT) Newbuilding Requirement (Mill. GT, p.a.) Share Total % Others % Gas Carriers 3.9 6% Other Dry Cargo Ships 5.2 8% Containships % Bulk Carriers % Tankers % Tankers Bulk Carriers Containerships Other Dry Cargo Ships Gas Carriers (LNGCs & LPGCs) Others SAJ2015 Actual Data: Clarkson, Forecast Data: SAJ 15

17 3-8. Current Situation and Projection in the Shipbuilding Industry Summary The seaborne trade is projected to increase worldwide along with the world population growth. A number of existing aged vessels are expected to be demolished steadily. The two factors above will create newbuilding demand. The point is Who s the one to build the vessels? Advantages of Japanese Shipbuilders 1) Productivity 2) Technology 3) Maritime Cluster 16

18 Contents 1. Current Situation and Projection on Seaborne Trade 2. World Shipbuilding Industry 3. Advantages of Japanese Shipbuilders 4. Measures on International Regulations 17

19 4-1. IMO Regulations and Newbuilding Contracts Contracts of Export Ship ( ) (Mill.GT) 5.0 Tier III NOx regulation for vessels started to build on or after January 1st, Others Cargo Ship Tanker Bulk Carrier Average New Noise Code for vessels contracted on or after July 1st, 2014 New Common Structural Rules for vessels contracted on or after July 1st, Source: Japan Ship Exporters Association (fiscal year) 18

20 4-2. New Measures on International Regulations From ASEF s website 19

21 4-3. New Measures on International Regulations From ASEF s website 20

22 Thank you for your attention! 15-12, Toranomon 1-Chome, Minato-Ku, Tokyo, , Japan TEL: +81-(0)